Official 4BR Tier List V4 - Competitive Insight & Analysis

[|RK|]

did he win the tournament, or at least get a reset?

He lost the tournament, but he reset the bracket 3-1.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Ah, I also saw this on Twitter. Since this is basically the argument I was making a few weeks ago, I wanted to share.

 

[WiFi]

He lost the tournament, but he reset the bracket 3-1.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Ah, I also saw this on Twitter. Since this is basically the argument I was making a few weeks ago, I wanted to share.

I've said time and time again that Witch Time has a devastating affect of being purely psychological when not in use. The very thought of WTi is scary, because of its power, you have to respect it. Humans generally like consistent and predictable data, we don't like unpredictable data. And that is what Witch Time is, unpredictable.

 

[The_Bookworm]

I've said time and time again that Witch Time has a devastating affect of being purely psychological when not in use. The very thought of WTi is scary, because of its power, you have to respect it. Humans generally like consistent and predictable data, we don't like unpredictable data. And that is what Witch Time is, unpredictable.

Good thing it is a counter move with it's own inherent flaws. It is the thing keeping from being at Melee Shine or Brawl Shuttle Loop levels, but WT is one of, if not, the best moves in the game.

 

[Rizen]

Witch time is the best move in the game and Brawl shuttle loop level BS. Bayo however is far from MK level BS.

Bayo is a great character but doesn't carry players. Salem won a big Brawl tourney with ZSS and that ssb4 one with Greninja. Damn if I can remember which exactly :/. I know certain players had success spikes after picking her up. It's natural players do better when they get good with a top tier, not just Bayo. That's why they're top tiers.

People talk about learning to SDI Bayo, which is a good thing, but need to focus on improving other aspects of the MU like true confirms, OoS punishes, punish grabs and safe keep away projectile zoning. Someone posted a great guide where Zinoto talks about this around a month ago.

 

[Heracr055]

Witch Time is not an unpredictable move. You have to play against Bayo under the impression that she will throw out Witch Time at any second. This mindset allows me to capitalize on Bayo players who reserve their Witch Time for the last second, thinking they're being clever. However, the trap was set for them the moment I see Bayo selected.

I hate typing on mobile

 

[|RK|]

Witch Time is not an unpredictable move. You have to play against Bayo under the impression that she will throw out Witch Time at any second. This mindset allows me to capitalize on Bayo players who reserve their Witch Time for the last second, thinking they're being clever. However, the trap was set for them the moment I see Bayo selected.

I hate typing on mobile

Every Bayo uses it differently. You may think this and activate Witch Time 5 seconds into the match. Or 4 minutes in.

They may use it to stuff your "get off of me" move or your trap attempt. Or just because they expect you to play any button.

If you're thinking about it in every interaction, you give her neutral a lot of power, and if you don't... then you'll keep activating it. Counterplay is generally A) not being in situations you can activate Witch Time in the first place, B) knowing exactly when she can activate it, and C) awareness of your opponent.

C) is most difficult, because it means you have to understand each opponent super well. A) & B) allow more consistency vs the character.

 

[Minordeth]

Every Bayo uses it differently. You may think this and activate Witch Time 5 seconds into the match. Or 4 minutes in.

They may use it to stuff your "get off of me" move or your trap attempt. Or just because they expect you to play any button.

If you're thinking about it in every interaction, you give her neutral a lot of power, and if you don't... then you'll keep activating it. Counterplay is generally A) not being in situations you can activate Witch Time in the first place, B) knowing exactly when she can activate it, and C) awareness of your opponent.

C) is most difficult, because it means you have to understand each opponent super well. A) & B) allow more consistency vs the character.

There is a “D” as well, which doesn’t get talked about as much: knowing when it’s most effective, if she uses it.

Witch Time has a spectrum of usefulness depending on the phase of a stock it’s triggered, where on the stage it’s activated, and how many times it’s been activated recently.

You can generally* influence all three of those, and they can either kneecap it as a tool, or give her free stocks.




*although not every character can influence all three.

 

[Heracr055]

I'd say a combination of C and D is what I typically go by. It's part of the reason I have relatively little trouble with Bayonetta. It's probably part of the reason wht I feel Ryu has a slight disadvantage against Bayo (where my mindset and Ryu's early KO tools allow him to not worry much about making the wrong decisions once he does finally get in)

 

[NINTENDO Galaxy]

I agree with Heracr055. Players can apply pressure to Bayonetta without pressing buttons. There is the option of taking up stage control. Just be wary of your options and your character's limit.

You do not always have to press buttons when you are pressured but I do know that some players will go all-in if you play too patient so I'd say that varies from player to player. Try different things until one of them works.

Just walking around the stage and not throwing out attacks can pressure the opponent in a similar way to how the community reacts to Witch Time. I do not think characters instantly lose the Bayonetta match-up if they do not have true confirms.

 

[WiFi]

I agree with Heracr055. Players can apply pressure to Bayonetta without pressing buttons. There is the option of taking up stage control. Just be wary of your options and your character's limit.

You do not always have to press buttons when you are pressured but I do know that some players will go all-in if you play too patient so I'd say that varies from player to player. Try different things until one of them works.

Just walking around the stage and not throwing out attacks can pressure the opponent in a similar way to how the community reacts to Witch Time. I do not think characters instantly lose the Bayonetta match-up if they do not have true confirms.

People won't react to walking around the stage and not throwing out moves won't pressure the opponent. Any good zoner player will immediately use projectiles to camp you out or any projectile character in particular will get massive rewards from you doing nothing. Pressing buttons is integral to fighting Bayonetta, but in such a way that must be optimal or true, or a good Bayo can and will WTi that. Also stage control is nullified if Bayonetta platform camps. Only a few characters can actually maintain stage control against Bayonetta, those being top or high tiers.
Despite it seeming like I disagree with your post, I actually mostly agree with it, it's just that walking around doing nothing in Smash is very different than Witch Time, and people react to that kind of pressure very differently from Witch Time, because that kind of pressure wont end your stock.

 

[The_Bookworm]

This is completely unrelated to this thread, but does any of you know how to send images from the Tier Lisr Maker to a thread?

Btw, which upcoming C-Tier do you guys think may turn into a B-Tier in the future? I am thinking Midwest Mayhem will.

 

[Heracr055]

Walking or approaching definitely forces reactions.
And approaching Bayo at pivotal moments (during a combo or at death %) will encourage a predictive response, one of which will be WTi. So you can effectively bait a Bayo (or any char with a counter) to throw out the predicted option. As a Ryu player I see this baiting of Focus Attack happen from really good opponents who anticipate it, even when I'm not predictable with it. Or they'll predict 1) that I'll use FADC, and 2) where I'll land with FADC & punish accordingly. Quite admirable prediction on their part.

 

[|RK|]

Speaking of Bayo MUs, I want to talk about a specific one - Rosa. Dabuz notes that when playing a Bayo like Tweek, who does everything safely, he makes it so that the MU is so much harder.

Rosa can't wall well, and reactionary strats can end up as 50/50s. So, er... what is Rosa supposed to do in neutral in that MU? Like, at all?

EDIT: To clarify, while lower level Bayos struggle against Rosa, we're not talking about them. Because it appears that there's a method of play that flips the MU on its head.

 

[The_Bookworm]

Who is hyped for Midwest Mayhem 11? I know I am two weeks early but I am hyped. Here are some notable players that will be attending so far.
PGR'ed:
MKLeo
Dabuz
Cosmos
DarkShad
NAKAT
tyroy

Non-PGR'ed, but notable:
Locus
Gluttony
S1
quiK
Ixis
Griffith

Basically an European invasion.

 

[JustCallMeJon]

Who is hyped for Midwest Mayhem 11? I know I am two weeks early but I am hyped. Here are some notable players that will be attending so far.
PGR'ed:
MKLeo
Dabuz
Cosmos
DarkShad
NAKAT
tyroy

Non-PGR'ed, but notable:
Locus
Gluttony
S1
quiK
Ixis
Griffith

Basically an European invasion.

Gluttony S1 quiK Ixis and Griffith /

They are definitely one of the top 10 best European players and they have great potential. iStudying breaks the European boundary in 2016, Peli, Aperture, and Ixis dished out some big upsets in 2017/2018 internationally. And my boy Gluttony taking out big upsets in Europe (And Nearly BEATING KEN!) makes me so PUMP of what Gluttony can truly do internationally. European is widely considered by NA Smashers as a "free region" and claims that Mr R carries Europe alone. Hopefully, Midwest Mayhem 11 will prove Smashers that they are wrong and that Europe is underrated.

 

[Kofu]

Witch Time's psychological effect and potential power is probably most comparable to Brawl Ice Climbers' chaingrabs, to put its threat in perspective. There are obviously various subtleties to the two options but the way it forces opponents to adjust their game plan is very, very similar.

Random thought, does Bayonetta have to be hit by a flinching attack to force Witch Time to end, or will an attack like Fox's lasers work?

 

[ReVerbIsSuperb]

So, er... what is Rosa supposed to do in neutral in that MU? Like, at all

While I don't claim to be an expert on either character, I still to this day find it really hard putting Cloud & Bayonetta on the same level of difficulty. Not sure what inspired this change but I do hope Dabuz makes a big analysis on his thoughts; I think it'd be interesting to hear. Especially since the results/records for him against Clouds & Bayo's overall are drastically different in comparison.

In regards to neutral, from what I've seen and what I can theorize, I actually don't think Rosalina outright loses neutral to Bayonetta. The main factor that prevents this from being the case is luma and how much control it gives her. Rosa being so tall hurts her because it makes shooting bullet climaxes and bair spacing a lot easier for Bayo, but if Rosa crawls more often (similar to how she's supposed to play against Diddy to avoid Fair) I think it becomes a lot more manageable. She can keep her profile low by crouching (and still remain low as she pressure with tilts) or c-stick jab/uptilt to get out of crouch and react to approaches with moves that'll call out Bayonetta's options.

Of all of Bayonetta's prowess, her ground game isn't her most defining trait because of either slow startup or unsafe pokes. Dtilt is her best & one of her only real safest and quickest grounded option when spaced at F7, but luma attacks & star bits can out-space this anyways. These factors coupled with Rosalina being able to run faster than Bayo allows her to corner and pressure on the ground if Bayo tries to space around or use bullets (which can be tanked by luma) and allows her to control the ground game better.

Because Bayonetta gets outboxed on the ground, she has to retreat to the air a lot more often than she already does in general. However, this can often work against her because of Bayo having a high short hop and because of how well Rosa anti-airs and stuffs options. Watch a large majority of Dabuz's sets vs the top level Bayonetta's and you'll quickly see just how many Up-Smashes he lands. Rosa's hitboxes and juggle game is huge and even Bayonetta has to be a little wary because of how much of a threat it poses. Bayonetta often likes to retreat to ledge to remove lag but putting luma in the right spot can also do an excellent job at ledge trapping; much better than a lot of the rest of the cast can at keeping her there or punishing her for it.

Bayonetta's tools to remove luma are kinda unconventional and most of them require her to actually win neutral first to properly take care of luma unless she wants to get hard punished or sent into the air. A lot of Bayonetta's tools like heel slide or ABK can get beaten, Rosa keeping her profile low to not get baired in the head can make it easier to call out jumps, and bullets get tanked by luma (unless she nairs although this gives opportunity for Rosa to anti-air). Rosa can box well enough to avoid Bayo dtilting luma safely and dash attack/dair is unsafe to approach with as well.

Don't get me wrong, none of this is super easy & Rosalina's already bad disadvantage state gets blown up by Bayonetta's great advantage state & edge-guarding. Not to mention it's a problem when she loses luma due to bad spacing, but if anything, I don't think neutral is the area where Rosalina should be getting bodied. I enjoy seeing Dabuz's already great neutral game as a player combine with Rosalina's tools. I'm interested to see how this MU will continue to develop as time goes on.

 

[Shaya]

Smart Bayo - Salem: show the world the ropes of being safe and advancing her metagame/match ups extensively in a relatively short period of time.
* loses to those with similar smarts and faster reactions on toolkits that "have a chance"; disjoints; particularly those strong both horizontally AND vertically - why you see more success from Marth/Roy's bair than most of Cloud's moveset for reactively punishing her or really 'solid' upper cut/overhead attack animations that are able to sneak through the small gaps her moveset has (e.g. Rosa Up Smash: she ducks low, comes straight up with an invincible head, beautiful).

Introduce Tweek: one of the undoubtedly [smash] smartest top level players with youthful reactions on his side.
The amount which one can enhance their safety by being able to react more is incredibly difficult to measure, but it scales with the character's overall potency.

My overall thoughts towards Bayonetta is still pretty vicious - I believe at minimum you have to outplay a significant majority of the time and if they're beyond a certain level be using a 'have a chance' character just to deal with the ferocity and 'freedom' (hitbox sizes and mostly non-existent endlag; in a game where whiff punishing is the most skill-intensive / reflective of skill asset in Smash4; she nullifies a lot of it) of her buttons.
By being 'better' you can whittle her down a bit to a more even/"fair" neutral - but then you're still always dealing with instant game deciders like Witch Time and overall reward/conversions that out strip everyone else in the cast sizably barring Cloud and Zero Suit in specific situations. Good DI/SDI will alleviate the latter A LOT in theory; and yet is essentially the only room for development the opponent (us) seems to have against this character. Bayo players still obviously have room to continue to enhance her safety/neutral ("smarter play").
Bayonetta is not just pick up and play material by any means, her array of weaknesses (start ups, natural mobility, weight, etc) are barriers uncommonly dealt with for anyone picking up a new character.

<Insert echoing of my hyperbolic post a while back of "X player beats all the Brawl MKs/Bayos but still thinks the character is a problem" vses "BUT THESE GUYS BEAT MK/BAYO WHY CAN'T YOU?>

General fundamentals and ability to react can take anyone very far in this game with almost any character. Dealing with and then adapting to one situation at a time will happen naturally and is for the most part what we've seen in Smash4, it's a slow process.
However, for characters to develop rapidly they need exceptional (usually singular) innovators. Despite how far 'information availability' has apparently come, this seems to still be the case. We are far away from matching scientific method/processes or HYPER CAPITALISM (aka moving back to feudalism/serfdom) that require indefinite amounts of individuals and megatons of data, interpretation and minute testing (people in the Smash community try to replicate but rarely succeed, we don't have the resources, some good things come out of these attempts sporadically though).
It's all about the Newtons and Archimedes still - the apple drops and most people even if they're the 'best' won't stop and exclaim 'EUREKA!'.
When I look back at Brawl ( <- Shaya post drinking game right here), it would be hard to imagine how things would've transpired had Mew2King (by no doubt the best Smash player in the world, both in melee and brawl and likely top 3 at worst in 64 - and one of the keenest developers of smash meta the world has ever known [can't think of anyone else remotely close]) not been there. I say not been there instead of 'playing someone else' because by his nature I think it would've been improbable for him not to move towards MK.

Either way, my current line drawn is one which the current trajectory of Bayonetta matching MK relatively (late 2019) speeds up.
If you're ambivalent or unsure (or even hard anti-bayo) I believe this is fair.
Sit back, relax and watch the heat-death of the universe.

 

[Minordeth]

I’m in the ambivalent camp.

Most of my personal opinions on Bayo have flipped. I used to think Witch Twist was her best tool, now I’m sure it’s Witch Time with ABK in second.

I used to think she could get off the ledge for free, negating her retreats to mitigate lag, now I’m convinced it’s her weakest area, beside approach options - if she can’t force it.

Generally, my opinion of her strengths got both better and worse.

I do think that once people get SDI/DI general concepts down, that Witch Time mitigation is next (it’s really only meaningfully useful in certain situations).

 

[|RK|]

While I don't claim to be an expert on either character, I still to this day find it really hard putting Cloud & Bayonetta on the same level of difficulty. Not sure what inspired this change but I do hope Dabuz makes a big analysis on his thoughts; I think it'd be interesting to hear. Especially since the results/records for him against Clouds & Bayo's overall are drastically different in comparison.

In regards to neutral, from what I've seen and what I can theorize, I actually don't think Rosalina outright loses neutral to Bayonetta. The main factor that prevents this from being the case is luma and how much control it gives her. Rosa being so tall hurts her because it makes shooting bullet climaxes and bair spacing a lot easier for Bayo, but if Rosa crawls more often (similar to how she's supposed to play against Diddy to avoid Fair) I think it becomes a lot more manageable. She can keep her profile low by crouching (and still remain low as she pressure with tilts) or c-stick jab/uptilt to get out of crouch and react to approaches with moves that'll call out Bayonetta's options.

Of all of Bayonetta's prowess, her ground game isn't her most defining trait because of either slow startup or unsafe pokes. Dtilt is her best & one of her only real safest and quickest grounded option when spaced at F7, but luma attacks & star bits can out-space this anyways. These factors coupled with Rosalina being able to run faster than Bayo allows her to corner and pressure on the ground if Bayo tries to space around or use bullets (which can be tanked by luma) and allows her to control the ground game better.

Because Bayonetta gets outboxed on the ground, she has to retreat to the air a lot more often than she already does in general. However, this can often work against her because of Bayo having a high short hop and because of how well Rosa anti-airs and stuffs options. Watch a large majority of Dabuz's sets vs the top level Bayonetta's and you'll quickly see just how many Up-Smashes he lands. Rosa's hitboxes and juggle game is huge and even Bayonetta has to be a little wary because of how much of a threat it poses. Bayonetta often likes to retreat to ledge to remove lag but putting luma in the right spot can also do an excellent job at ledge trapping; much better than a lot of the rest of the cast can at keeping her there or punishing her for it.

Bayonetta's tools to remove luma are kinda unconventional and most of them require her to actually win neutral first to properly take care of luma unless she wants to get hard punished or sent into the air. A lot of Bayonetta's tools like heel slide or ABK can get beaten, Rosa keeping her profile low to not get baired in the head can make it easier to call out jumps, and bullets get tanked by luma (unless she nairs although this gives opportunity for Rosa to anti-air). Rosa can box well enough to avoid Bayo dtilting luma safely and dash attack/dair is unsafe to approach with as well.

Don't get me wrong, none of this is super easy & Rosalina's already bad disadvantage state gets blown up by Bayonetta's great advantage state & edge-guarding. Not to mention it's a problem when she loses luma due to bad spacing, but if anything, I don't think neutral is the area where Rosalina should be getting bodied. I enjoy seeing Dabuz's already great neutral game as a player combine with Rosalina's tools. I'm interested to see how this MU will continue to develop as time goes on.

Actually, much of what you're saying is addressed by his most recent set vs Tweek. Dabuz himself noted it's getting harder to wall Bayo out. So she doesn't necessarily outbox Bayo - not anymore, it would seem.

 

[Nathan Richardson]

OK can someone explain to me what was going on with the boards around 15 minutes ago?
I kept getting the 502 bad gateway error before the site fixed itself!

As for bayo, witch time is scary, but only if the opponent throws it out sparingly and you become predictable and easy to punish. Witch time actually gets worse the more often it's used and activated (as everyone probably already knows), the thing to do to counter it is typically to either wait the witch time out and strike afterwards or grab.
If you're used to playing aggressively and aren't used to every single mistake being punished like myself this can be a nightmare against a marginally competent bayo.
I've beaten bayos that are obviously semi competent but still don't have the tricks down pat yet, I've hit bat withins and gotten punished harshly for hitting a witchtime and I have to say witchtime is a game changer.
It forces you to rethink your neutral strategy, play patiently (which a few players hate to do), and use grabs as punishes as often as possible to avoid a witchtime mix-up.
tl;dr bayo's witchtime is the single best move in the game as you have to rethink your neutral to work around it.

 

[TDK]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Saw this today, it looks like Bayo's been getting some pointers from her on-disc counterpart. This isn't the first time I've seen this in the past week or so, which makes me think it's consistent, but is it? It looks sorta situational thanks to Town and City platforms, but I doubt it'd be that much harder to get than ZSS...

 

[Nu~]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Saw this today, it looks like Bayo's been getting some pointers from her on-disc counterpart. This isn't the first time I've seen this in the past week or so, which makes me think it's consistent, but is it? It looks sorta situational thanks to Town and City platforms, but I doubt it'd be that much harder to get than ZSS...

Can’t say I’m too surprised considering Bayo’s uair is literally a better ZSS Uair

Honestly, SDI seems like it’s only gonna be a temporary inconvenience to this character’s advantage state in the future. The character has a wide array of powerful combo tools, not just the notorious witch twist and AbK.

 

[Das Koopa]

JANUARY DATA WRITE-UP

Doing this quickly so I can dig into February data I'm behind on.

Monthly character movements:

Other +3%
Marth +1.5%
Duck Hunt +1.3%
Mario +1%
Mr. Game & Watch +1%
Zero Suit Samus +0.9%
Pac-Man +0.9%
Pikachu +0.9%
Sheik +0.7%
Wario +0.7%
Meta Knight +0.7%
Ike +0.7%
Samus +0.6%
Rosalina & Luma +0.4%
Ness +0.4%
Corrin +0.3%
Lucario +0.3%
Yoshi +0.2%
Luigi +0.1%
Villager +0.1%
Ryu +0.1%
Shulk = 0.8%
Donkey Kong -0.1%
Mega Man -0.1%
Toon Link -0.2%
Mewtwo -0.3%
R.O.B. -0.4%
Lucina -0.4%
Fox -0.5%
Peach -0.6%
Sonic -0.7%
Greninja -0.8%
Captain Falcon -1.8%
Diddy Kong -2.1%
Cloud -2.5%
Bayonetta -2.8%

There's a lot of weird stuff here but considering the limited data you see at the start of every month. Things like Falcon being low is simply because not a lot of Falcon mains attended events in January whereas Pac/Duck Hunt are a bit over-represented and will likely stagnate in the following months to some extent.

While i haven't done in February's numbers yet I really doubt Bayo or Cloud's declines stay that way: Cloud mains weren't very prominent at G5, Bayonetta's regional impact was small for this month in particular, etc.

Mostly posting this to keep it documented; February write-up coming soon after I pull everything on it together. 1-2 days most likely.

Spoiler: Full Results, January 2018

Bayonetta: 149.75
Sheik: 143.75
Cloud: 135.75
Diddy Kong: 121.5
Fox: 108.25
Sonic: 104
Mario: 99.5
Zero Suit Samus: 87
Rosalina & Luma: 69
Marth: 59.5
Ryu: 57
Mewtwo: 56.25
Meta Knight: 55
Pikachu: 49
Corrin: 41.5
Ness: 36
Luigi: 33
Duck Hunt: 31
Mr. Game & Watch: 30
Donkey Kong: 27.5
Toon Link: 27
Samus: 26.5
Wario: 25
Ike: 25
Peach: 22.5
Greninja: 21
Yoshi: 20
Lucario: 19.5
Mega Man: 18.5
Villager: 18
Pac-Man: 18
Captain Falcon: 16.5
R.O.B.: 16
Lucina: 15.5
Little Mac: 15
Shulk: 14.5
Roy: 12
Pit: 10
Charizard: 9
Olimar: 7.5
Lucas: 7
Zelda: 7
Dr. Mario: 6.5
Bowser: 6
Link: 6
Palutena: 6
Wii Fit Trainer: 5
Robin: 5
Falco: 4
Jigglypuff: 4
King Dedede: 1
Mii Gunner: 1

Results Thread: https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/

Methodology: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Jks0EtmeNemKsm2rXzYf8RB3D43-Ru23ypx_DOnQPDY/edit?usp=sharing

Previous Month: https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...insight-analysis.452108/page-25#post-21894311

 

[Prince Koopa Jr]

Bowser Junior mains, I have a question. Why do you think Rosalina is your worst match-up? Same reason for Bowser and DK, big bodies and lag? I have seen Bowser Juniors punish Rosalina players hard before, like Jade. I do think that Rosalina is BJ's worst match-up, but curious to know the full answer.

I am going to say quite similar things that I said earlier, but:
People think Mewtwo's only flaw is it's weight, but that is just simply not true. I said before that if Mewtwo can not get it's set-up combos effectively, Mewtwo basically struggles hard. Mewtwo is very dangerous once when it grabs you to foward air ( that can kill at low percents off stage ). Mewtwo is like a glass cannon, has to take on a hit or else it gets hit back in the battlefield. That hit is strong though. I disagree when people say if Mewtwo's results were amazing, it would be top five. Mewtwo would probably be top seven if it's results reached it's peak. I simply do not see it higher than the likes of Fox.

Bowser Jr main here, Rosa is really tough matchup because she has more range and gravitational pull destroys our important neutral tool mechakoopa.
It's also really hard to land against up-air sharking Rosa, and if we could put offstage or on the edge, all it takes is a simple jab to gimp us. This is why I feel Rosa is Jr's worst matchup.

 

[Deleted member]

JANUARY DATA WRITE-UP

Doing this quickly so I can dig into February data I'm behind on.

Monthly character movements:

Other +3%
Marth +1.5%
Duck Hunt +1.3%
Mario +1%
Mr. Game & Watch +1%
Zero Suit Samus +0.9%
Pac-Man +0.9%
Pikachu +0.9%
Sheik +0.7%
Wario +0.7%
Meta Knight +0.7%
Ike +0.7%
Samus +0.6%
Rosalina & Luma +0.4%
Ness +0.4%
Corrin +0.3%
Lucario +0.3%
Yoshi +0.2%
Luigi +0.1%
Villager +0.1%
Ryu +0.1%
Shulk = 0.8%
Donkey Kong -0.1%
Mega Man -0.1%
Toon Link -0.2%
Mewtwo -0.3%
R.O.B. -0.4%
Lucina -0.4%
Fox -0.5%
Peach -0.6%
Sonic -0.7%
Greninja -0.8%
Captain Falcon -1.8%
Diddy Kong -2.1%
Cloud -2.5%
Bayonetta -2.8%

There's a lot of weird stuff here but considering the limited data you see at the start of every month. Things like Falcon being low is simply because not a lot of Falcon mains attended events in January whereas Pac/Duck Hunt are a bit over-represented and will likely stagnate in the following months to some extent.

While i haven't done in February's numbers yet I really doubt Bayo or Cloud's declines stay that way: Cloud mains weren't very prominent at G5, Bayonetta's regional impact was small for this month in particular, etc.

Mostly posting this to keep it documented; February write-up coming soon after I pull everything on it together. 1-2 days most likely.

Spoiler: Full Results, January 2018

Bayonetta: 149.75
Sheik: 143.75
Cloud: 135.75
Diddy Kong: 121.5
Fox: 108.25
Sonic: 104
Mario: 99.5
Zero Suit Samus: 87
Rosalina & Luma: 69
Marth: 59.5
Ryu: 57
Mewtwo: 56.25
Meta Knight: 55
Pikachu: 49
Corrin: 41.5
Ness: 36
Luigi: 33
Duck Hunt: 31
Mr. Game & Watch: 30
Donkey Kong: 27.5
Toon Link: 27
Samus: 26.5
Wario: 25
Ike: 25
Peach: 22.5
Greninja: 21
Yoshi: 20
Lucario: 19.5
Mega Man: 18.5
Villager: 18
Pac-Man: 18
Captain Falcon: 16.5
R.O.B.: 16
Lucina: 15.5
Little Mac: 15
Shulk: 14.5
Roy: 12
Pit: 10
Charizard: 9
Olimar: 7.5
Lucas: 7
Zelda: 7
Dr. Mario: 6.5
Bowser: 6
Link: 6
Palutena: 6
Wii Fit Trainer: 5
Robin: 5
Falco: 4
Jigglypuff: 4
King Dedede: 1
Mii Gunner: 1

Results Thread: https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/

Methodology: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Jks0EtmeNemKsm2rXzYf8RB3D43-Ru23ypx_DOnQPDY/edit?usp=sharing

Previous Month: https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...insight-analysis.452108/page-25#post-21894311

Sheik finally beat Cloud to it for second place in January. They have been pulling off some work lately in January, I wonder if the same will be for February. Oh my goodness, shocked to see Robin that low. I think Robin could potentially fall even more if his/her results continue to disappear like this. Same with Pit, he seems so low.

There is something that catches my eye the most, Duck Hunt and Mr. Game and Watch are placed so high. Props to those players for putting up hard work, like Ratio. Duck Hunt is just a character that is improving as the meta slows down, which is rare. This has been truly an interesting month, I look forward to your February one!

 

[Minordeth]

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Saw this today, it looks like Bayo's been getting some pointers from her on-disc counterpart. This isn't the first time I've seen this in the past week or so, which makes me think it's consistent, but is it? It looks sorta situational thanks to Town and City platforms, but I doubt it'd be that much harder to get than ZSS...

Yeah, I’ve seen this too. It looks feasible but situational. On the other hand, I haven’t see a run through with DI accounted for. That and I can’t work up to much excitement about Bayo getting platform assist combos when Fox, ZSS, and Captain Falcon love that stuff.

Can’t say I’m too surprised considering Bayo’s uair is literally a better ZSS Uair

I’ve seen this repeated, and I don’t think it’s actually that clear cut.

ZSS Uair is frame 6, as opposed to Bayo’s frame 9 Uair. Bayo has three more active frames on her Uair than ZSS, as her Uair lasts for 9 frames as opposed to 6.

On the other hand, ZSS’ Uair has 3 fewer frames of landing lag, at 9.

Ultimately, ZSS Uair has one frame more of advantage on hit, and safety on shield, than Bayo’s Uair.

Honestly, SDI seems like it’s only gonna be a temporary inconvenience to this character’s advantage state in the future. The character has a wide array of powerful combo tools, not just the notorious witch twist and AbK.

SDI makes Bayo’s life really, really hard. As Tweek notably said, Bayo is only as brain dead as the other player lets her be. Knowing some basic DI/SDI, and mixing them up, especially on Witch Twist 1, kneecaps her reward.

In dittos, he negates tons of potential damage, as he powers through Wtw 1 consistently.

Bayo players can only read what you do in specific circumstances. Outside of those, most of what they do is based off what you have done. In other words, prediction.

She does have a lot of tools, but I wouldn’t underestimate the depth of kneecapping that will happen as more flowcharty SDI/DI play happens, and people are able to focus on actually playing the match up.

On a side note, some characters just get out of her stuff easier than others. I don’t know why, and maybe it’s just me, but whenever I play Fox, it feels like I basically fall out of everything with cake effort DI/SDI, but Marcina takes a bit more.

Game is weird, sometimes.

 

[Nah]

Speaking of Bayo MUs, I want to talk about a specific one - Rosa. Dabuz notes that when playing a Bayo like Tweek, who does everything safely, he makes it so that the MU is so much harder

I mean, I don't think that's something specific to any MU really, that's just a basic part of the game. Like Shaya says, a lot of this game boils down to whiff punishing. Safe moves are obviously not meant to be punished in most circumstances. So then it would follow that playing safely would give the other player that much less to work with, and so make the fight harder, yes?

On a side note, some characters just get out of her stuff easier than others. I don’t know why, and maybe it’s just me, but whenever I play Fox, it feels like I basically fall out of everything with cake effort DI/SDI, but Marcina takes a bit more.

Game is weird, sometimes.

Maybe it has something to do with fall speed?

 

[JustCallMeJon]

JANUARY DATA WRITE-UP

Doing this quickly so I can dig into February data I'm behind on.

Monthly character movements:

Other +3%
Marth +1.5%
Duck Hunt +1.3%
Mario +1%
Mr. Game & Watch +1%
Zero Suit Samus +0.9%
Pac-Man +0.9%
Pikachu +0.9%
Sheik +0.7%
Wario +0.7%
Meta Knight +0.7%
Ike +0.7%
Samus +0.6%
Rosalina & Luma +0.4%
Ness +0.4%
Corrin +0.3%
Lucario +0.3%
Yoshi +0.2%
Luigi +0.1%
Villager +0.1%
Ryu +0.1%
Shulk = 0.8%
Donkey Kong -0.1%
Mega Man -0.1%
Toon Link -0.2%
Mewtwo -0.3%
R.O.B. -0.4%
Lucina -0.4%
Fox -0.5%
Peach -0.6%
Sonic -0.7%
Greninja -0.8%
Captain Falcon -1.8%
Diddy Kong -2.1%
Cloud -2.5%
Bayonetta -2.8%

There's a lot of weird stuff here but considering the limited data you see at the start of every month. Things like Falcon being low is simply because not a lot of Falcon mains attended events in January whereas Pac/Duck Hunt are a bit over-represented and will likely stagnate in the following months to some extent.

While i haven't done in February's numbers yet I really doubt Bayo or Cloud's declines stay that way: Cloud mains weren't very prominent at G5, Bayonetta's regional impact was small for this month in particular, etc.

Mostly posting this to keep it documented; February write-up coming soon after I pull everything on it together. 1-2 days most likely.

Spoiler: Full Results, January 2018

Bayonetta: 149.75
Sheik: 143.75
Cloud: 135.75
Diddy Kong: 121.5
Fox: 108.25
Sonic: 104
Mario: 99.5
Zero Suit Samus: 87
Rosalina & Luma: 69
Marth: 59.5
Ryu: 57
Mewtwo: 56.25
Meta Knight: 55
Pikachu: 49
Corrin: 41.5
Ness: 36
Luigi: 33
Duck Hunt: 31
Mr. Game & Watch: 30
Donkey Kong: 27.5
Toon Link: 27
Samus: 26.5
Wario: 25
Ike: 25
Peach: 22.5
Greninja: 21
Yoshi: 20
Lucario: 19.5
Mega Man: 18.5
Villager: 18
Pac-Man: 18
Captain Falcon: 16.5
R.O.B.: 16
Lucina: 15.5
Little Mac: 15
Shulk: 14.5
Roy: 12
Pit: 10
Charizard: 9
Olimar: 7.5
Lucas: 7
Zelda: 7
Dr. Mario: 6.5
Bowser: 6
Link: 6
Palutena: 6
Wii Fit Trainer: 5
Robin: 5
Falco: 4
Jigglypuff: 4
King Dedede: 1
Mii Gunner: 1

Results Thread: https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/

Methodology: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Jks0EtmeNemKsm2rXzYf8RB3D43-Ru23ypx_DOnQPDY/edit?usp=sharing

Previous Month: https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...insight-analysis.452108/page-25#post-21894311

Yo, this is good! Ness is still in the upper-catagory! Props to taranito for placing 17th at EVO Japan, BestNess placing 25th at GENESIS 5, and S1 winning a stacked European regional!

Note: Didn't expect Mr. Game & Watch placed that high in results! Outside of Pax, what results put Mr. Game & Watch that high?

Diddy Kong drop a bit but he still held strong! MVD did well on GENESIS 5 but without ZeRo's dominance, Diddy Kong's results will drop considerable. Would like to see how Diddy Kong will perform in the future!

 

[Lord Dio]

Mr. Game & Watch that high?

Magister beat Mistake and Fatality and got iirc 13th or something at G5

 

[JustCallMeJon]

Magister beat Mistake and Fatality and got iirc 13th or something at G5

Thanks

 

[Locke 06]

Magister beat Mistake and Fatality and got iirc 13th or something at G5

Maister, Mexican G&W, not Magister, PNW Charizard/Villager & artist.

Magister lost to Maister in r2 pools.

 

[Yonder]

Game and Watch is that one character in mid tier that consistently makes big splashes at large tournaments only, all with different representives (Regi, Magister, Extra, Kossissmoss). Then he disappears at locals or smaller tourneys.

He's a really odd phenomenon in that regard. Duck Hunt follows that same rule to some extent too.

 

[ElectricBlade]

Hi! I quoted the wrong post. But I was wondering if you could elaborate on how getting off of the ledge is one of Bayonetta's biggest weaknesses? Also, could you explain how Cloud could exploit these? Thank you

 

[The_Bookworm]

Game and Watch is that one character in mid tier that consistently makes big splashes at large tournaments only, all with different representives (Regi, Magister, Extra, Kossissmoss). Then he disappears at locals or smaller tourneys.

He's a really odd phenomenon in that regard. Duck Hunt follows that same rule to some extent too.

These big splashes, plus a few niche matchups, is the glue that keeps Game & Watch from falling out of the 39th-40th spot.
The sad part about Palutena is that she made a few big splashes at late 2016, but then she disappeared since (except for maybe a few smaller splashes in 2017).

JANUARY DATA WRITE-UP

Doing this quickly so I can dig into February data I'm behind on.

Monthly character movements:

Other +3%
Marth +1.5%
Duck Hunt +1.3%
Mario +1%
Mr. Game & Watch +1%
Zero Suit Samus +0.9%
Pac-Man +0.9%
Pikachu +0.9%
Sheik +0.7%
Wario +0.7%
Meta Knight +0.7%
Ike +0.7%
Samus +0.6%
Rosalina & Luma +0.4%
Ness +0.4%
Corrin +0.3%
Lucario +0.3%
Yoshi +0.2%
Luigi +0.1%
Villager +0.1%
Ryu +0.1%
Shulk = 0.8%
Donkey Kong -0.1%
Mega Man -0.1%
Toon Link -0.2%
Mewtwo -0.3%
R.O.B. -0.4%
Lucina -0.4%
Fox -0.5%
Peach -0.6%
Sonic -0.7%
Greninja -0.8%
Captain Falcon -1.8%
Diddy Kong -2.1%
Cloud -2.5%
Bayonetta -2.8%

There's a lot of weird stuff here but considering the limited data you see at the start of every month. Things like Falcon being low is simply because not a lot of Falcon mains attended events in January whereas Pac/Duck Hunt are a bit over-represented and will likely stagnate in the following months to some extent.

While i haven't done in February's numbers yet I really doubt Bayo or Cloud's declines stay that way: Cloud mains weren't very prominent at G5, Bayonetta's regional impact was small for this month in particular, etc.

Mostly posting this to keep it documented; February write-up coming soon after I pull everything on it together. 1-2 days most likely.

Spoiler: Full Results, January 2018

Bayonetta: 149.75
Sheik: 143.75
Cloud: 135.75
Diddy Kong: 121.5
Fox: 108.25
Sonic: 104
Mario: 99.5
Zero Suit Samus: 87
Rosalina & Luma: 69
Marth: 59.5
Ryu: 57
Mewtwo: 56.25
Meta Knight: 55
Pikachu: 49
Corrin: 41.5
Ness: 36
Luigi: 33
Duck Hunt: 31
Mr. Game & Watch: 30
Donkey Kong: 27.5
Toon Link: 27
Samus: 26.5
Wario: 25
Ike: 25
Peach: 22.5
Greninja: 21
Yoshi: 20
Lucario: 19.5
Mega Man: 18.5
Villager: 18
Pac-Man: 18
Captain Falcon: 16.5
R.O.B.: 16
Lucina: 15.5
Little Mac: 15
Shulk: 14.5
Roy: 12
Pit: 10
Charizard: 9
Olimar: 7.5
Lucas: 7
Zelda: 7
Dr. Mario: 6.5
Bowser: 6
Link: 6
Palutena: 6
Wii Fit Trainer: 5
Robin: 5
Falco: 4
Jigglypuff: 4
King Dedede: 1
Mii Gunner: 1

Results Thread: https://smashboards.com/threads/tournament-placing-database-scoring-project.437773/

Methodology: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Jks0EtmeNemKsm2rXzYf8RB3D43-Ru23ypx_DOnQPDY/edit?usp=sharing

Previous Month: https://smashboards.com/threads/4br...insight-analysis.452108/page-25#post-21894311

This is very interesting to say the least. How is Link that low? T got 9th at EVO Japan.

 

[WiFi]

Yeah, I’ve seen this too. It looks feasible but situational. On the other hand, I haven’t see a run through with DI accounted for. That and I can’t work up to much excitement about Bayo getting platform assist combos when Fox, ZSS, and Captain Falcon love that stuff.



I’ve seen this repeated, and I don’t think it’s actually that clear cut.

ZSS Uair is frame 6, as opposed to Bayo’s frame 9 Uair. Bayo has three more active frames on her Uair than ZSS, as her Uair lasts for 9 frames as opposed to 6.

On the other hand, ZSS’ Uair has 3 fewer frames of landing lag, at 9.

Ultimately, ZSS Uair has one frame more of advantage on hit, and safety on shield, than Bayo’s Uair.



SDI makes Bayo’s life really, really hard. As Tweek notably said, Bayo is only as brain dead as the other player lets her be. Knowing some basic DI/SDI, and mixing them up, especially on Witch Twist 1, kneecaps her reward.

In dittos, he negates tons of potential damage, as he powers through Wtw 1 consistently.

Bayo players can only read what you do in specific circumstances. Outside of those, most of what they do is based off what you have done. In other words, prediction.

She does have a lot of tools, but I wouldn’t underestimate the depth of kneecapping that will happen as more flowcharty SDI/DI play happens, and people are able to focus on actually playing the match up.

On a side note, some characters just get out of her stuff easier than others. I don’t know why, and maybe it’s just me, but whenever I play Fox, it feels like I basically fall out of everything with cake effort DI/SDI, but Marcina takes a bit more.

Game is weird, sometimes.

Given Fox's matchup with Bayonetta, Fox better have good SDI. Hardest matchup for Fox by far. As for Game and Watch, I don't feel like this character is low tier. Granted, he dies early, but his damage output is insane, and he has some of the best mobility in the game. I'm actually curious to know what his major weaknesses are. He feels like he should be in Mid-tier.

 

[The_Bookworm]

Given Fox's matchup with Bayonetta, Fox better have good SDI. Hardest matchup for Fox by far. As for Game and Watch, I don't feel like this character is low tier. Granted, he dies early, but his damage output is insane, and he has some of the best mobility in the game. I'm actually curious to know what his major weaknesses are. He feels like he should be in Mid-tier.

Game and Watch has been at the lower end of mid tier ever since the third tier list. He also excels at recovery.

His main weakness, other than endurance, is his surprising inability to KO at higher percentages despite dealing a lot of damage quickly. This is due to his finishers being plagued in one way or another, including inconsistent KO set-ups (such as down throw into up aerial) and KOing options that are too sluggish or have large sourspots (such as forward and down smashes, respectively). His neutral game is also lacking, due to having no aerials that autocancel from a short hop (although doesn't suffer from this no where near as much as Roy, due to his overall fast aerials and low landing lag) and his limited amount of safe options on shield.

 

[MistressRemilia]

While we're on the subject of results & data, did i just miss it or the followup article for 4BR's V4 Tier List never happened? We do know from Shaya , who's involved with the writing of these articles, that WFT was thought of as the potential worst character in the game along with Jigglypuff in the minds of Japanese voters, but beyond that, we don't know much, and i'm interested in these regional differences.

Game and Watch is that one character in mid tier that consistently makes big splashes at large tournaments only, all with different representives (Regi, Magister, Extra, Kossissmoss). Then he disappears at locals or smaller tourneys.

He's a really odd phenomenon in that regard. Duck Hunt follows that same rule to some extent too.

It's Maister, not Magister. Magister is a Villager/Charizard main that Maister just so happened to beat on his way to 17th place. But yeah, Game&Watch has never been an overly popular character, so his regional representation is a little lacking, but it's not exactly inexistent either, just sparse & rare, as expected from a retro mid-tier character.

 

[ぱみゅ]

RE: Bayo vs Fox is a weird matchup, both get so much from getting the other into disadvantage, Fox has tools to force more errors from Bayonetta in the neutral, but her conversions are potentially deadlier at any %.
It's very dynamic and explosive.

RE: Added to Maister's success at G5, there was a regional in Mexico where he and Regi both placed like top 5 or something like that.
The character can look very good when things are going his way.

 

[Minordeth]

I mean, I don't think that's something specific to any MU really, that's just a basic part of the game. Like Shaya says, a lot of this game boils down to whiff punishing. Safe moves are obviously not meant to be punished in most circumstances. So then it would follow that playing safely would give the other player that much less to work with, and so make the fight harder, yes?


Maybe it has something to do with fall speed?

Among other things, yeah. I generally understand why, but just the specific feeling is what I’m talking about. I believe Tweek also noted that Fox should have an easier time getting out of some Bayo things easier than even other fast fallers, and just from practice and comparisons, I’m inclined to agree.

Given Fox's matchup with Bayonetta, Fox better have good SDI. Hardest matchup for Fox by far.

Hot take: Sm4sh Fox’s disadvantage gets overemphasized compared to his neutral and advantage. It’s like Melee all over again.

Hotter take: Bayo/Fox is probably even, or slight dis for Fox... right now.

Hottest take: It’s gonna end up being Fox slight advantage.

There is East Coast synthesis going on, where you get a mix of expansive hyper-rush down, fluid styles like Light, with pace controlling, almost- actually-really-honestly defensive styles like Dekillsage.

And you end up with someone like Odyssey. We finally gettin’ away from the Lurrian mode here.

Praise-The-Sun take: Fox straight up loses maybe three match ups in Neo 20XX.

Yeah, one is Sheik.

One is not Ryu.