Fatmanonice
you cited Villager as a counterpick character for Fox. Care to explain? I don't see it at all.
Villager can harass Fox horribly offstage but onstage Fox has the advantage in every area. He's far more mobile than Villager, has a reflector, and can easily pressure Villager's shield because of the character's miserable grab.
I really don't think it's in Villager's favor. Not a horrible matchup (NAir and Jab help a ton) but Fox seems to have a definite advantage.
From how I see it:
1. Villager is one of the few characters that doesn't really care about Fox's aerial pressure uairs because dair can beat it and he has reliable air stalls. Lloid's ability to momentum cancel and pocket's ability to wave bounce are also very useful in this match up because they can greatly throw off the timing of Fox's aerial string attempts.
2. It's very easy to put a ton of edgeguarding pressure on him without even leaving the stage. Recovering low is a nonoption for obvious reasons and planting a tree makes Fox think twice about recovering on stage or high. Like against most characters, Villager can easily be aggressive against Fox offstage too and, thanks to Fox being a fastfaller, nair/dair interrupting fire fox can put Fox in a really bad position. Strategically setting up lloids on stage can also manipulate Fox's "flight plan."
3. fsmash can interrupt Fox Illusion and sometimes hit Fox even if Fox hits Villager first. Tthere are weird instances where Villager will still drop the bowling ball even if he's hit and I don't fully understand why. I think it has to do with the power of the attack but, in my own experience, Fox Illusion is one of the moves I've seen this work on the most consistently. I've also seen this happen against Fox's nair and jab.
4. ftilt and dtilt can punish jab's finisher because of their range. Fox is great at pressure but Villager also has decent out of shield options. Obviously, his grab isn't one of them but jab, ftilt/dtilt, short hopped dair/nair are.
5. utilt outprioritizes dair and nair and pointblank Lloids can protect Villager from aerial approaches.
6. rage against Fox means killing as early as 40-50% with good reads but consistently killing at 80-90% in this match up is not difficult.
7. dthrow combos work at higher percentages and strings of jabs work longer because Fox is a fast faller
8. one of the easier reflector/absorber for Villager to work around/punish : Mario=Dr. Mario> Rosalina > Mewtwo >Palutena > Falco > the Pits > Fox > other Villagers >Mother boys > ROB
9. getting ledgetrumped in this match up is pretty much certain death for Fox if the Villager has the slightest clue what they're doing because bair hits Fox like a truck and sets up point # 2.
I'm going to say it's at least 6-4. Being a fast faller, being light, and having a fairly linear and predictable recovery are the main things that hurt Fox in this match