Official 4BR Tier List v1.0 - Competitive Impressions

[Luco]

Ganon vs Ness is suuuuuuper volatile. The only reason Ness wins it is literally because Ganon can't handle PKT offstage and Ganon's T-rex grabbing arms prevent him from... Well, grabbing and throwing Ness offstage. Ness has to respect ganon sooooo much onstage to not die at 60% though. Very much a +/-1 IMO.

 

[TheGlove]

I wonder what makes ESAM think greninja and fox are winning match ups even though he lost to istudying and got man handled by Larry Lurr in the grudge match.

Most likely he feels that he had no top level Greninja match up experience, which not many people in America have, and I believe Esam has a winning record over every other Fox he has played in a tournament bracket, including up 2:0 on Megafox, so he likely feels he just has a Larry problem not Fox problem.

Also, as Shaya said, how a player feels a match up is may reflect how they feel while playing a match up. I guess Esam feels like he should be able to beat Fox and Greninja with Pika. Or rather, he doesn't feel super uncomfortable in those matchups

Personally, Im interested to see what the Ike mains have to say about this chart considering a couple have posted that the match up is in their favor, but Esam doesn't find it that close. This may have something to do with him being up in sets on Ryo.

 

[ぱみゅ]

How can you have -1 to Marth and +1 to Lucina? they're not THAT different to each other.

A lot of people seriously underrate Lucina, very badly sometimes.
Like, this thread alone started to say that Marth can potentially go up a lot, but Lucina is still a bottom 10 character for no other reason than "she's just a worse Marth".

 

[juddy96]

New match videos:

Grand Finals of GGWP 6: S1-14 vs. iStudying https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRuXfSxgrQQ
Grand Finals of Couchwarriors Monthly: Ghostbone vs. Earl https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xps1P7mfNh8
Grand Finals of Touch The Throne: cyve vs. Light https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xBFdEIrdPpw

But the most interesting of all (imo) is Polybash, which had a top 8 featuring a whole host of underused characters. https://www.youtube.com/user/SmashBrosMTL/videos

 

[Emblem Lord]

How can you have -1 to Marth and +1 to Lucina? they're not THAT different to each other.

A lot of people seriously underrate Lucina, very badly sometimes.
Like, this thread alone started to say that Marth can potentially go up a lot, but Lucina is still a bottom 10 character for no other reason than "she's just a worse Marth".

Marth depending on his spacing has two option trees he can follow. He can poke you out for better reward if you are at tipper distance OR with closer spacing more follow ups become available and he actually has tighter traps due to less hitlag.

He LITERALLY has twice the depth of his descendant.

 

[Megamang]

Yeah, but have you seen Cloud, Ness, and Falcon in neutral against Ganon, @Blobface?

(especially Cloud, holy crow does he **** on Ganon from on high)

I feel like people (again) forget that getting people offstage is part of the game, too. Like, Ganon actually has to reliably hit these characters for the whole "they get murdered offstage!" thing to really matter.

Smooth Criminal

Thank you for mentioning this. I try and bring this up as an advantage for megaman in some MUs, because pellets into nair hitbox is a really easy to land, true combo (if approaching at full speed) that forces characters at the sakurai angle (361 is the sakurai angle, right?) pretty quickly, and often sets up bad DI because they are holding away trying to escape pellets. I see this most often vs Cloud, where people say they can gimp him in their MU... even if you gimped cloud guaranteed each time he was off the stage, if you have to land a smash from a read to get him there, it isn't a huge point in the MU.

Being able to chuck someone offstage and start a death sequence is one of the major advantage of having a strong throw. This is why Ness's grab game is so solid, dthrow combos, bthrow is bthrow, but if you can't kill with Bthrow then fthrow often starts a highly damaging or even deadly sequence.

It surprises me FOW has Megaman as easier than DHD, Robin, frikkin kirby... He is heavy so the throw isn't as good, though the dthrow train does solid damage. Is it because he can heal? I wonder if he has played a solid mega, they aren't exactly common, and bad ones will heal ness consistently.


Re:Marth/Lucina

The ftilt buff is something I think really sets Marth apart from Lucina. The buffed move is now a really safe and strong poke, with massive range. It is also considerably easier to tipper than Fsmash. The tippered tilt is a great kill option to have in clutch situations, you can poke at their shield with relative safety thanks to the buff. It can be done out of a pivot to punish Dash attacks, dash grabs, or SH aerial approaches, basically anything that encroaches on Marth's space, again much safer and slightly quicker than F-smash.

Lucina... you aren't gonna kill with Ftilt, for much longer. Pretty sure it starts killing for her after the uthrow does, so why bother?

Also, marth has falling uair combos for much longer, some of which are kill confirms. His jab is better for setups and combos at a variety of damage ranges... Dtilt is way better now at poking, and the tipper can set you up badly. Fsmash gimps early on can swing the tide. And nair is genuinely terrifying now, again giving him a kill option that she doesn't have. Isn't it the strongest nair?

And the thing is, with their range buffs, you should be spacing at the max range anyways! And tippers got way easier with the latest buffs, so the damage output is essentially always higher for Marth, which is cool because he is killing way earlier anyways... except in matches and situations where Sourspot Fsmash is landed frequently, but tipper ftilt is way easier to land, way safer, and pretty damn strong anyways. I just think Lucina is a few levels worse. I'd place her significantly below Marth.

 

[Nobie]

The biggest buff Lucina got wasn't ftilt, it was fair.

No, Lucina's fair will not kill sooner than Marth's. At the same time, it kills over 30% EARLIER than it used to.

Close to the edge or in edgegaurding situations, I think Lucina's fair is legit scary now.

Also, I find it funny that people complain about Bayonetta's air dodge activating Bat Within on frame 1 when that air dodge has 9 frames of ending lag, which is worse than every other character in the game by a sizable margin.

 

[Solfiner]

The biggest buff Lucina got wasn't ftilt, it was fair.

No, Lucina's fair will not kill sooner than Marth's. At the same time, it kills over 30% EARLIER than it used to.

Close to the edge or in edgegaurding situations, I think Lucina's fair is legit scary now.

Also, I find it funny that people complain about Bayonetta's air dodge activating Bat Within on frame 1 when that air dodge has 9 frames of ending lag, which is worse than every other character in the game by a sizable margin.

Let's not forget that she still takes some damage when using bat within which definitely adds up pretty quickly.

 

[David Viran]

Also, I find it funny that people complain about Bayonetta's air dodge activating Bat Within on frame 1 when that air dodge has 9 frames of ending lag, which is worse than every other character in the game by a sizable margin.

But if you get BW then that crappy AD turns into the best AD in the game by a sizable margin too.

 

[Megamang]

Does it? Activating it in the wrong situation just gets you hit again. If the move can hit you both times, you just took 1.5x damage for airdodging at the wrong time.

I haven't seen any real frame data or explanations for the workings of Bat Within. Not sure on what influences where you go, or the time when you are vulnerable again. Lets figure that out, then get on with hyperbole.


But, we were talking Lucina vs Marth.. isn't his fair still more dangerous? If there is something with angles or sourspots or something that makes Lucina's fair better at killing, it still doesn't compare to the terrifying slash of Marth's nair... I believe. Im confused about the fair thing, killing 30% earlier sounds nice but I didn't know it was killing.

EDIT: I didn't read your post correctly, you addressed the comparison. So when they changed all the stuff, her fair benefitted more than his ftilt benefitted... gotcha.

I still think she should have the slider on her moves (if marth's tipper is one end and marth's sourspot is the other end) moved around more on her moves, to give her some identity. Like, maybe give her a nair that is almost as good as his, to throw her a killing bone, at the expense of having a terrible fair. (I originally said fair for her, but I realized that fair is kinda marth's identity)

 

[David Viran]

Does it? Activating it in the wrong situation just gets you hit again. If the move can hit you both times, you just took 1.5x damage for airdodging at the wrong time.

I haven't seen any real frame data or explanations for the workings of Bat Within. Not sure on what influences where you go, or the time when you are vulnerable again. Lets figure that out, then get on with hyperbole.

http://smashboards.com/threads/4br-...tive-impressions.429826/page-45#post-20875872

@TheReflexWonder did some research on BW.

 

[my_T]

In regards to FOW's match-up chart

Do people take skill player skill into consideration when looking at the performance of a character? I feel that a lot of people over-look this very important aspect.

Out of all the ness players out there, who has accomplished anything noteworthy aside from FOW and Shaky? Im only looking at MAJOR TOURNAMENTS WITH A LOT OF COMPETITION. Both of these players have placed top 8 or 32 in the major tourneys that they have entered. I don't know of any other ness player that has gotten close to FOW and Shakys level of accomplishments.

S1-14 looks impressive getting 9th at Beast 6 but im not quite convinced since Beast 6 didn't have too many notable players.

@L9999 you said that theres a fair amount of ness players out there that consistently beat sheiks.

Who?

Once again, FOW and Shaky are the only ness players I've seen do this; mostly FOW. And the sets that they do win are almost always close. On the other hand Void and Zero level sheiks have never lost to ness as far as I know.

IMO ness is being carried by FOW and Shaky. I think his placement on American tier list is heavily based off of FOW and Shakys results. Ness is good but just a tad bit overrated if you look at the theory behind his match-ups.

 

[Halifax?]

~~~~~~~~~~

 

[Pancracio17]

Game and watch is a funny matchup because of windbox sheninigans.

 

[Nidtendofreak]

Personally, Im interested to see what the Ike mains have to say about this chart considering a couple have posted that the match up is in their favor, but Esam doesn't find it that close. This may have something to do with him being up in sets on Ryo.

Top level Ikes generally peg it around 50-50/55-45 range.

Lower level Ikes find the MU difficult frequently

Not enough top level Ike vs top level Pikachu to easily peg the MU down. I don't think its 40-60 though and ESAM is wrong about us having trouble chasing Pika down. We can chase Sonic down if we really have to. The rat can run, and delay things, but not for very long. Particularly not with his Up B's funky collisions with hitboxes vs a giant sword.

 

[C0rvus]

How does Bayonetta do vs. heavies? Bowser, Charizard, DK?

How about the puffballs, Kirby, Jigglypuff?

What about weird foos like Wario, Mr. Game & Watch, Wii Fit Trainer?

just curious what kind of character gives her trouble.

Bayonetta destroys heavies.
Puffballs are annoying at best, but heavily in her favor.
Game and Watch may be a decent one. He has some cheeky escape options from her ceiling combos if she isn't careful. She still wins it though.
Characters who want grabs, and/or can lame her out tend to do well. Or like Cloud, who beats her onstage but loses hard offtstage.

 

[DE235]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yG5WH8qM4uY
Sol just made a video on the sheik vs mac matchup and I think this should be discussed.
He commentates over his 4 matches with Master Raven. It was a money match but I still think its worth watching.

 

[Megamang]

Hmm, the Bath Within gives her a quick animation, and basically turns her dodges to being better than other dodges by a few frames. Reflex says 13+ frames off of her normal animations, but consider that her normal animations are crap. So long lasting hitboxes, or multiple hitbox attacks, can be good to punish this, especially since apparently activating Bat Within slows down your animation! I didn't know that part. Someone mentioned a well placed Luigi Dsmash will do the BW damage and hit the later part, effectively punishing the roll even more than a normal hit.

Now the question is, what level of control does the Bayonetta have? Can she alter where she ends up with directional inputs, or is it determined when the BW activates? I personally think it is the latter, in my games I can never get it to do anything besides end up where it would normally be, but I admittedly haven't done any specific testing with it.

She still has a slow grab and jab, so again her best option post BW is the Witch Twist. So basically if button press speed is ever a concern, such as if you break her zone, be prepared for a Witch Twist.

Also, she can SHAD -> Divekick, an interesting mixup I thought of on the bayonetta boards, someone else (i believe pikazz) confirms it works to get the hitbox out, and can bounce off of shields. I bring this up because I think it is these kinds of things we are going to see happening to her meta, I don't believe her punish game will get more fleshed out. People will learn optimal setups for no DI (where they kill usually) and optimal setups for DIing opponents, one will emerge with max damage for each situation, and they will be used. Her combo game is incredible, but it isn't totally fluid in a way that really makes me think much more will grow a great amount. This is mainly due to the way her specials work, they were clearly made to be combo moves, and they work, but often they are the only possible followup. People will discover that a uair here is better, or a Witch Twist into Witch Twist is more optimal/sets up a kill 5050 earlier, but the combos aren't going to get longer. Really they should get shorter as people learn to SDI.


Another CQC option she has is landing dair. If she starts the dair, the frame she hits the ground there will be a hitbox, even if she dair'd the frame before. This is similar to pika's landing dair, and I think many others, and will serve similar purpose. It can be a quick f1 combo break, but only in situations where you are forced onto the ground. This is nice for mixing in against characters that like to do something like jab you, let you mash AD, and then punish you for falling onto the ground during the airdodge, but most combos have nothing to fear from dair.

I bring these up as CQC options are integral to the efficacy of Bat Within, these are some options you will see before and after her dodges.

The slowing of enemy animations might actually prove to hurt her, as extending hurtboxes in duration might make some moves able to punish BW even if they don't have 20 active frames.

 

[BunbUn129]

So I'm wondering guys, how does the matchup go between MK and Bayo?

 

[~ Gheb ~]

Most likely he feels that he had no top level Greninja match up experience, which not many people in America have, and I believe Esam has a winning record over every other Fox he has played in a tournament bracket, including up 2:0 on Megafox, so he likely feels he just has a Larry problem not Fox problem.

Xzax beat ESAM in a money match at G3. ESAM doesn't have a "Larry problem", Pikachu just loses to Fox. Megafox isn't quite on the skill level to take on ESAM tbh.

 

[Nocally]

Regarding the Pikachu vs Fox matchup, I believe that Fox slightly wins because of his good neutral and decent advantage state against Pikachu. Pikachu can keep up with Fox in all game stages, But the reason why Pikachu can keep up with Fox is because of Fox´s disadvantage stage. Pikachu can get some early kills because of his edge guarding and some damaging early strings because of Fox´s fast falling nature, but Fox ultimately wins the match up slightly because Fox combos/kill confirms are more reliable than off stage Pikachu kills.

Since it is a close match-up, knowledge and player skill are two important aspects that can turn the tide of battle, All of this might change in the future though, but as of now, >

Disclaimer: just my current opinion in short format.

 

[Mario766]

ESAM barely beats Ryo in sets and has flawed reasoning for why Pikachu wins the mu.


Welcome to America where we all sleep on Ike.

 

[BunbUn129]

ESAM barely beats Ryo in sets and has flawed reasoning for why Pikachu wins the mu.


Welcome to America where we all sleep on Ike.

I thought Japan was the region known for sleeping on Ike. That's just ESAM: the guy is a great player, but he vastly overrates Pikachu to an almost disgusting level. He places Pika 2nd on his personal lists, and he might have done that when voting on the 4BR tier list, which I think is inflating Pika's rating even though MK, Fox, Diddy and Sonic deserve to be higher. ESAM just seems to have a somewhat delusional outlook on Pika's matchups.

Also, what reasoning did ESAM give on the MU?

 

[Mario766]

Everyone sleeps on Ike.


ESAM: Good luck ever hitting me and getting back to the stage.

 

[Vipermoon]

Thank you for mentioning this. I try and bring this up as an advantage for megaman in some MUs, because pellets into nair hitbox is a really easy to land, true combo (if approaching at full speed) that forces characters at the sakurai angle (361 is the sakurai angle, right?) pretty quickly, and often sets up bad DI because they are holding away trying to escape pellets. I see this most often vs Cloud, where people say they can gimp him in their MU... even if you gimped cloud guaranteed each time he was off the stage, if you have to land a smash from a read to get him there, it isn't a huge point in the MU.

Being able to chuck someone offstage and start a death sequence is one of the major advantage of having a strong throw. This is why Ness's grab game is so solid, dthrow combos, bthrow is bthrow, but if you can't kill with Bthrow then fthrow often starts a highly damaging or even deadly sequence.

It surprises me FOW has Megaman as easier than DHD, Robin, frikkin kirby... He is heavy so the throw isn't as good, though the dthrow train does solid damage. Is it because he can heal? I wonder if he has played a solid mega, they aren't exactly common, and bad ones will heal ness consistently.


Re:Marth/Lucina

The ftilt buff is something I think really sets Marth apart from Lucina. The buffed move is now a really safe and strong poke, with massive range. It is also considerably easier to tipper than Fsmash. The tippered tilt is a great kill option to have in clutch situations, you can poke at their shield with relative safety thanks to the buff. It can be done out of a pivot to punish Dash attacks, dash grabs, or SH aerial approaches, basically anything that encroaches on Marth's space, again much safer and slightly quicker than F-smash.

Lucina... you aren't gonna kill with Ftilt, for much longer. Pretty sure it starts killing for her after the uthrow does, so why bother?

Also, marth has falling uair combos for much longer, some of which are kill confirms. His jab is better for setups and combos at a variety of damage ranges... Dtilt is way better now at poking, and the tipper can set you up badly. Fsmash gimps early on can swing the tide. And nair is genuinely terrifying now, again giving him a kill option that she doesn't have. Isn't it the strongest nair?

And the thing is, with their range buffs, you should be spacing at the max range anyways! And tippers got way easier with the latest buffs, so the damage output is essentially always higher for Marth, which is cool because he is killing way earlier anyways... except in matches and situations where Sourspot Fsmash is landed frequently, but tipper ftilt is way easier to land, way safer, and pretty damn strong anyways. I just think Lucina is a few levels worse. I'd place her significantly below Marth.

Does it? Activating it in the wrong situation just gets you hit again. If the move can hit you both times, you just took 1.5x damage for airdodging at the wrong time.

I haven't seen any real frame data or explanations for the workings of Bat Within. Not sure on what influences where you go, or the time when you are vulnerable again. Lets figure that out, then get on with hyperbole.


But, we were talking Lucina vs Marth.. isn't his fair still more dangerous? If there is something with angles or sourspots or something that makes Lucina's fair better at killing, it still doesn't compare to the terrifying slash of Marth's nair... I believe. Im confused about the fair thing, killing 30% earlier sounds nice but I didn't know it was killing.

EDIT: I didn't read your post correctly, you addressed the comparison. So when they changed all the stuff, her fair benefitted more than his ftilt benefitted... gotcha.

I still think she should have the slider on her moves (if marth's tipper is one end and marth's sourspot is the other end) moved around more on her moves, to give her some identity. Like, maybe give her a nair that is almost as good as his, to throw her a killing bone, at the expense of having a terrible fair. (I originally said fair for her, but I realized that fair is kinda marth's identity)

Lucina has good damage output now. I have no idea what you both are talking about when you say Marth still racks damage faster or they should bring her closer to the tippers. Do you know what the patch did?

She has Marth's old tippers. Bair does almost as much damage as tipper Bair (and extremely close to old tipper Bair). Uair is close to old tipper Uair. Fair does more damage than old tipper Fair. Nair does near both hit old tipper damage (and it was hard to get both tipper hits last patch). She is a real character; her aerials and damage output are no longer obviously held back by Marth.

Marth is definitely the better character but the difference is closer than it has been.

 

[TheGlove]

Xzax beat ESAM in a money match at G3. ESAM doesn't have a "Larry problem", Pikachu just loses to Fox. Megafox isn't quite on the skill level to take on ESAM tbh.

It depends how much credence you are willing to give a 10 dollar money match to develop match up numbers. It seems like they were both playing seriously. The issue remains what foxes has Esam lost to in a tournament bracket outside of Larry? I am legitimately curious. I probably shouldn't be trying to psycho analyze a person who I have never met personally to figure out their opinion on match ups, but that still may be why he believes it.

Personally I don't dispute that fox is at least even and I could definitely see it being an advantageous match up for fox.

ESAM barely beats Ryo in sets and has flawed reasoning for why Pikachu wins the mu.


Welcome to America where we all sleep on Ike.

Out of curiosity, do you know how many times the two have played? I think they played once at a tournament soon after the first big Ike buffs which is the one that Ryo was an aether spike away from beating Esam. The only other vids on youtube I was able to find were:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymsD6NQIXow and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBymA1o7oNE

The first one I dont know what the game count was at but Esam was only in the 30's at the end. In the other set at Frame Perfect, Esam takes the first set on battefield with a two stock. loses badly on smashville then wins relatively convincingly on lylat, although thats a bit on Ryo for not banning Lylat.

Again I can see this match up being in Ikes favor, but from these wins I can see why Esam could see it as in Pika's favor. If there are more matches to look up twitch vods for that would be useful data to have.

Is there some way to summon Esam to the thread to discuss these matchups in more detail? I dont know how often he frequents smashboards, but its likely not that often as he's a busy man.

 

[Megamang]

Lucina has good damage output now. I have no idea what you both are talking about when you say Marth still racks damage faster or they should bring her closer to the tippers. Do you know what the patch did?

She has Marth's old tippers. Bair does almost as much damage as tipper Bair (and extremely close to old tipper Bair). Uair is close to old tipper Uair. Fair does more damage than old tipper Fair. Nair does near both hit old tipper damage (and it was hard to get both tipper hits last patch). She is a real character; her aerials and damage output are no longer obviously held back by Marth.

Marth is definitely the better character but the difference is closer than it has been.

She has his old stuff, but that is semantics because his new stuff is better. And i say Marth's damage output is better because his tippers not only do more damage, but the less damaging sourspots can often combo into the tippers, so getting hit with Marth's sourspot seems way more threatening.

They both really deserved the buffs, and I like where Marth is now, but I don't feel Lucina is threatening like he is. Maybe I overrate the extreme power Marth has (I know many Marth's aren't a fan, but it still is a major factor in some MUs), but he still seems like the obvious choice... And there are so many characters in their range, I can see people slipping in.

Maybe a big part of this is I have liked playing Marth in friendlies since the beginning, and now he feels way better. I admittedly don't play much Lucina.

I really have enjoyed Pugwest doing well, but I don't know of any Lucina mains doing much. They may be similar on paper, but Marth has that factor that Lucina doesn't have. I have heard that she does better in MUs where you can't reliably outspace, such a pikachu, but IMO Marth was always scarier for my Pika. Early tipper kills make his life hard, dthrow stuff is scary with tippers, and the uair kill confirm just adds so much to Marth.

Again nothing I say here I believe to be set in stone, just feelings towards the characters. And Lucina being as good as prepatch marth... just doesn't do it for me as an explanation, since he improved drastically.

 

[Nobie]

To get an idea of Lucina's current fair power, in training mode her fair can kill Sheik at the edge on Dreamland at 124% with no DI. Obviously that's not taking into account freshness bonus, DI, rage, etc., but it's nothing to sneeze at either when fair is Frame 6, has a massive disjoint, and you don't need to be precise about it at all. Even further off the stage, of course it'll kill even earlier, which is why I mentioned that the buff makes Lucina a scary edgeguarder.

 

[Illuminose]

As far as I'm aware, Larry and ESAM have only played in tournament at CEO, at which Larry beat ESAM primarily with Luigi, not Fox. The grudge match is whatever lol, you literally have an entire venue screaming & rooting against you in a non-tournament setting with ESAM clearly playing at perhaps his lowest level in Smash 4 ever even disregarding this setting (he legit lost to K9 and Tyrant at that tournament lol). There is no clear record to cite that actually includes a sample size of Larry Fox vs ESAM Pikachu in tournament matches (besides ESAM's wins against Megafox but w/e not exactly the same level player). Stop trying to make up one that doesn't exist.

The thought of Fox beating Pikachu is honestly pretty hilarious to me given how brutal Pikachu's punishes are for Fox (he literally has up throw up tilt lol) and how easy it is for him to edgeguard Fox. There is no way you have dominant tools like that and lose a matchup unless you get wrecked in neutral due to, like, getting camped out or having poor mobility, or the other character can do similar things back (not the case for this matchup). Which Pikachu blatantly does not. Pikachu is worse at killing and Fox has good options to deal with Quick Attack/some aspects of Pikachu's neutral (up tilt is the main thing). I can see the matchup being even but I also understand why ESAM would put it at a slight advantage for Pikachu if you take into account how badly Pikachu can punish and edgeguard Fox when on point (i.e. not missing stupid simple things like nair on side b as was happening in the grudge match).

I think this thread overrates Fox in general though. I think he's good but I have an awful lot of trouble seeing him as comparable to character like Sonic, MK, Pikachu, and Diddy. He loses to the top 3 (w/ varying levels of difficulty but all are at least slightly disadvantageous). He also has some of the most exploitable flaws among top tier characters (brutally comboed and edgeguarded), which makes Fox pretty volatile and somewhat inconsistent. He's clearly top 10, but his matchups and national level results don't match up to characters like MK, Sonic, Diddy, and yes even Pikachu.

Pikachu's matchup spread is REALLY good and it's something that people miss. I would have expected something more extreme from ESAM tbh; his MU spread isn't different from reality. Maybe you can say 1 or 2 55-45 matchups even but tbh there's little else you can contest.

 

[BunbUn129]

I think this thread overrates Fox in general though. I think he's good but I have an awful lot of trouble seeing him as comparable to character like Sonic, MK, Pikachu, and Diddy. He loses to the top 3 (w/ varying levels of difficulty but all are at least slightly disadvantageous). He also has some of the most exploitable flaws among top tier characters (brutally comboed and edgeguarded), which makes Fox pretty volatile and somewhat inconsistent. He's clearly top 10, but his matchups and national level results don't match up to characters like MK, Sonic, Diddy, and yes even Pikachu.

I like how you put Pikachu in the same group as MK, Sonic, and Diddy, even though MK and Diddy far outclass him in national level results. Fox is inconsistent, sure, but the same exact thing is true for Pikachu, perhaps moreso. Fox is incosistent because of his ****ty disadvantage; Pika is inconsistent because of unreliable KO setups and a lack of safe KOing moves. Why do you think ESAM does well one day and blows it the next? Because Pikachu can't do **** against opponents who can avoid up throw thunder.

Fox loses to the top 3? True. But guess what? Pika also loses to Sheik (lmao some people say this is even), has a debatably even matchup vs ZSS and Rosa, and the rest of Pikachu's overall matchup spread is worse than Fox's due to a lack of KOing ability and the fact that Pika gets ****ed over by rage-induced opponents.

The claim that Pika is better than Fox is highly questionable considering rep and results speak otherwise. Fox vs Pika, is at worst for Fox, even; still, Pika's placement at 5 is atrociously high, while Fox's placement is much more acceptable. I agree, there is a tendency to overrate Fox a bit here, but in this specific discussion, it's most likely due to Pikachu being obnoxiously overrated on the tier list.

 

[Locke 06]

To get an idea of Lucina's current fair power, in training mode her fair can kill Sheik at the edge on Dreamland at 124% with no DI. Obviously that's not taking into account freshness bonus, DI, rage, etc., but it's nothing to sneeze at either when fair is Frame 6, has a massive disjoint, and you don't need to be precise about it at all. Even further off the stage, of course it'll kill even earlier, which is why I mentioned that the buff makes Lucina a scary edgeguarder.

What you're not looking at, in terms of edge guarding, is her BAir, which gives the same knockback of the aforementioned FAir at 100% (24% earlier).

You can airdodge into Marth and not get tipped. You can't airdodge into Lucina. They play differently and neither outclasses the other.

 

[C0rvus]

So Mekos is apparently making a comeback to the scene, and he is very excited about Lucas. He says he's a good character. Perhaps we may at long last get some high/top level rep and keep it. Pink Fresh's Lucas is great, but now he's mostly playing Bayonetta, isn't he? Either way, more of Lucas is a good thing, since opinions on him vary heavily. I know I'm excited.

 

[NairWizard]

Not directly related to the current topic (I think that Fox beats Pikachu pretty cleanly, +1 Fox's favor), but it's somewhat difficult to gauge matchups based on results.

Consider a theoretical scenario between two evenly matched players playing an even matchup, 50:50. We can assume that the odds of one player winning a match is about 50%.

Given 6 matches between the two and using binomial distributions to calculate the odds:

There's a ~31% chance (less than a third) that the match result is exactly 3-3 (even), which is the expected result.
There's a ~22% chance (more than a fifth) that one player wins 1 or fewer matches in the set of matches, which we would consider a highly skewed result.
There's a ~3% chance that one of the two players will win all 6 of the matches. (3% is incidentally quite significant, given that we have close to 3,000 matchups in this game)

The sample size (6) is so small that there's actually a greater chance of results not aligning with the actual matchup ratio than there is of the reverse. Obviously, as you increase the sample size, more numbers fall into the "expected" category and more extreme skews become less likely; for instance, a result of 53 matches won out of 100 for instance is close enough to 50, and the probability of one player winning all 100 matches is trivially small, not even worth measuring.

The counterargument here is that you can get more granular in defining what you mean by "sample." Rather than "matches," what if you take stocks as the sample? Now you have 12 of them across 6 matches assuming 2-stock games, which is double the sample size. Going even further, what if you take "interactions" as the sample? Then a single match contains hundreds of yomi-based interactions, which is a pretty decent sample.

But you have to consider that when we say "result," we're not really using these other metrics like stocks and interactions. There are some problems with just redefining the sample and applying the new definition to our current methods of discussing results, e.g., if you use stocks as the measure, then you have to factor in that the player who loses the first stock has to approach more often due to being behind, or if you use interactions as the measure then you have two different and equally important variables in KO power and damage-wracking that you have to distinguish between. The notion of "results" is pretty closely tied to sets, and these sets are often 3-2 or 3-1 with last-stock last-hit situations, making conclusions even more difficult to draw.

Results are certainly useful, and I'm not suggesting that we ignore them since pure theory is almost as bad, but when we consider results we have to look at the context of what's happening in the games, what adaptation and counteradaptation the players are utilizing. It's not just enough to say, ZeRo beat Nairo, so Sheik must beat ZSS. Did ZeRo beat Nairo because he was using a lot of n-air and Nairo didn't counter with enough ground movement? Did ZeRo beat Nairo because there's a skill gap? Did ZeRo beat Nairo because he powershielded more attacks successfully, and Nairo underestimated the importance of power-shielding in the matchup? Or did ZeRo beat Nairo because ZSS' tools are fundamentally poorly matched up to Sheik's tools?

Too many factors to boil down to "hey guys, X beat Y, so character A > character B head to head!", although that result can certainly serve as the springboard for discussion.

 

[Megamang]

That is exciting, Lucas is a character that deserves more rep. How does Lucas fair against shiek? It seems like characters around the mid tier either get slaughtered to the point they don't have a chance vs a competent shiek, or they have a variety of advantages that make their MU surprisingly good, and their MU problems are with other high tiers. Lucas has a mixture of things. For one thing, having a zoning playstyle usually falls apart vs needles... yet he has great aerials, and a set of killing throws. Stuff like his dthrow usually works phenomenally on shiek due to her physics.

Re:Fox. Fox isn't overrated from what I see. He has insane confirms. Both for damage racking, and for killing. Fox players will only get better at that. Hell, I knew about running backwards ftilt confirming into usmash, but the other day I saw that it combos into utilts. Utilts themselves rack up crazy damage, especially if the fox is adept at perfect pivots. I know I prattle on about PP, but fox really does have massively useful and powerful one, especially since it adds more utility to his insane utilt. His jab is also terrifying for many characters, who don't have many options when he simply punches their shield repeatedly and threatens more damage than they could hope to counter with.

Bair is insane for poking. As in every game, is just so fast that people will have trouble keeping up with top level foxes.

He is edgeguardable, but I don't think it is as bad as people perceive it to be. Given time and space, yea everyone should be able to gimp him, but that isn't always the situation. If you get a trade that knocks him offstage, especially with something like bair, you are knocked away long enough that illusion is totally safe. Its so much slower, and he falls so much faster, in melee, yet we still see top level players unable to consistently gimp fox (Edit: rereading this... the fox lives more than you'd think reading theorycraft. He still is gimped frequently) The mixup is much stronger than any of his individual options, and in sm4sh having the ability to illusion then up B is powerful for many reasons.


The only thing I see hurting him in the future is people optimizing specific combos against him. Due to the way knockback is boosted vertically (to prevent gravity making some characters surviving forever like immortal freakin CF in melee), fox suffers more hitstun than anyone when combo'd. That is why we see stuff like u-throw utilt from pika hurting him... but so what?

If you manage to survive pika's setups, you may take the first 65% free, but he has to hunt and claw for the next 65%. Guy Falks, on the other hand, only needs a properly spaced jab, or sour nair, or utilt, or proper hitbox of illusion (meaning a bad read on a recovery can itself be deadly), or even a bair, or just a raw usmash, to end pika really early...

Dunno. I think ESAM unfortunately puts too much faith in pika's edge game. And thats understandable, it works at almost every level. But at the top level, we see people who know his stuff being able to beat him. He thought greninja was a joke a while back...

 

[Fatmanonice]

Me: "Cloud's not that bad."

*almost drops a tournament to a 14 year old with a good Cloud*

Uh... so, as to that, who's actually good against Cloud? I suppose my mistake was that I kept switching characters. Got to winners finals, lost with Villager, won with Wii Fit, and then lost with Mario. Then in Grand Finals, I swept the first set with Iggy, he switched to Little Mac, lost one with Iggy when my 3DS didn't sync right and I lost my recovery, won one with Wii Fit, lost one with Wii Fit, and then won two with Greninja to take the tournament. I still can't put my finger on why he couldn't touch my Iggy because the match up is pretty bad on paper.

 

[my_T]

As far as I'm aware, Larry and ESAM have only played in tournament at CEO, at which Larry beat ESAM primarily with Luigi, not Fox. The grudge match is whatever lol, you literally have an entire venue screaming & rooting against you in a non-tournament setting with ESAM clearly playing at perhaps his lowest level in Smash 4 ever even disregarding this setting (he legit lost to K9 and Tyrant at that tournament lol). There is no clear record to cite that actually includes a sample size of Larry Fox vs ESAM Pikachu in tournament matches (besides ESAM's wins against Megafox but w/e not exactly the same level player). Stop trying to make up one that doesn't exist.

The thought of Fox beating Pikachu is honestly pretty hilarious to me given how brutal Pikachu's punishes are for Fox (he literally has up throw up tilt lol) and how easy it is for him to edgeguard Fox. There is no way you have dominant tools like that and lose a matchup unless you get wrecked in neutral due to, like, getting camped out or having poor mobility, or the other character can do similar things back (not the case for this matchup). Which Pikachu blatantly does not. Pikachu is worse at killing and Fox has good options to deal with Quick Attack/some aspects of Pikachu's neutral (up tilt is the main thing). I can see the matchup being even but I also understand why ESAM would put it at a slight advantage for Pikachu if you take into account how badly Pikachu can punish and edgeguard Fox when on point (i.e. not missing stupid simple things like nair on side b as was happening in the grudge match).

I think this thread overrates Fox in general though. I think he's good but I have an awful lot of trouble seeing him as comparable to character like Sonic, MK, Pikachu, and Diddy. He loses to the top 3 (w/ varying levels of difficulty but all are at least slightly disadvantageous). He also has some of the most exploitable flaws among top tier characters (brutally comboed and edgeguarded), which makes Fox pretty volatile and somewhat inconsistent. He's clearly top 10, but his matchups and national level results don't match up to characters like MK, Sonic, Diddy, and yes even Pikachu.

Pikachu's matchup spread is REALLY good and it's something that people miss. I would have expected something more extreme from ESAM tbh; his MU spread isn't different from reality. Maybe you can say 1 or 2 55-45 matchups even but tbh there's little else you can contest.

Unfortunately many people in the smash community seem to have the mindset of Results > Theory. My issue with this is that there are too many outside factors that can play into a characters results:

Overall health of the player

skill level of the player in comparison to their opponent

lack of representation for ______(insert character here)

lack of competition in smaller/non-major tourneys

Ive always wondered what kind of results some of the other top/high tier characters would have if they had a player like Zero backing them up. Zero's diddy beating every sheik he runs into. No other diddy main has accomplished what Zeros diddy has. Same goes for Ranai and villager. No other villager player comes close to the level of accomplishments of Ranais villager. Also, villager is considered top tier in many japanese tier list while in America he rose up on the tier list (still high tier) only after Ranais performance at G3.

Theres just too many outside factors that come into play when looking at a characters results

 

[Big-Cat]

Me: "Cloud's not that bad."

*almost drops a tournament to a 14 year old with a good Cloud*

Uh... so, as to that, who's actually good against Cloud? I suppose my mistake was that I kept switching characters. Got to winners finals, lost with Villager, won with Wii Fit, and then lost with Mario. Then in Grand Finals, I swept the first set with Iggy, he switched to Little Mac, lost one with Iggy when my 3DS didn't sync right and I lost my recovery, won one with Wii Fit, lost one with Wii Fit, and then won two with Greninja to take the tournament. I still can't put my finger on why he couldn't touch my Iggy because the match up is pretty bad on paper.

To be honest, it doesn't sound like the Cloud is the problem. I doubt the player was that good if you're switching between a whopping four characters and getting away with it.

 

[R3D3MON]

Me: "Cloud's not that bad."

*almost drops a tournament to a 14 year old with a good Cloud*

Uh... so, as to that, who's actually good against Cloud? I suppose my mistake was that I kept switching characters. Got to winners finals, lost with Villager, won with Wii Fit, and then lost with Mario. Then in Grand Finals, I swept the first set with Iggy, he switched to Little Mac, lost one with Iggy when my 3DS didn't sync right and I lost my recovery, won one with Wii Fit, lost one with Wii Fit, and then won two with Greninja to take the tournament. I still can't put my finger on why he couldn't touch my Iggy because the match up is pretty bad on paper.

I think Mario can handle Cloud really well. Cape is a serious threat offstage and F.L.U.D.D can gimp him at 0 % if the Cloud player is reckless. Mario has enough mobility to match Cloud's and the extensive aerial pressure game that Mario puts on Cloud (due to Mario's excellent air speed) can seriously hamper Cloud's stage-presence. Also from what I understand d-throw > fair is real on Cloud due to his weight and fall speed (other Mario mains can correct me on this tho). Of course Mario has the advantage during CQC situations as well.

Cloud's disjoints are real (i.e. Cloud's up-air can end Mario's stock very quickly) and Cloud has his limit charge, but overall Mario does well against Cloud because he has answers to Cloud's tools.

 

[bc1910]

Me: "Cloud's not that bad."

*almost drops a tournament to a 14 year old with a good Cloud*

Uh... so, as to that, who's actually good against Cloud? I suppose my mistake was that I kept switching characters. Got to winners finals, lost with Villager, won with Wii Fit, and then lost with Mario. Then in Grand Finals, I swept the first set with Iggy, he switched to Little Mac, lost one with Iggy when my 3DS didn't sync right and I lost my recovery, won one with Wii Fit, lost one with Wii Fit, and then won two with Greninja to take the tournament. I still can't put my finger on why he couldn't touch my Iggy because the match up is pretty bad on paper.

Agreeing that the player is more of a problem than Cloud in this story but it's an interesting discussion point anyway.

Not sure if you were talking about Mac here (who Greninja soundly beats) but against Cloud, Greninja has the Hydro Pump niche, meaning even a perfectly spaced Up B from Cloud can be edgeguarded easily since he doesn't ledge snap. Shurikens pressure him while he charges limit and you can mix up uncharged and partially charged to mess with powershield timing. I would say Greninja "does well" against Cloud comparatively but I wouldn't say it's a MU he wins. Cloud has some crazy range and safety, made worse by the fact that shielding (usually a good option against Cloud) with Greninja sucks.

 

[FullMoon]

Greninja vs Cloud is a very notable case of "he's dead when he's offstage but good luck getting him there in the first place".