Mixed feelings about this.
Don't get me wrong. Falcon is hella good and has one of the best punishing qualities in the entire game.
The problem with this character however is his unbalanced matchups. He can dominate some characters but gets completely overrun by others. There aren't many close matchups when it comes to Top/High tiers.
Then again, it doesn't matter if you can connect your hits and just tech chase everyone perfectly, but this holds up for any character basically.
However, when a good Fox/Falco/Sheik is playing safe and makes no mistakes Falcon will have alot of trouble. His nair is a good approach method but moves like Falco's dair go straight through. He gets combo'd easily and the trajectory Sheik's fair sends you goes completely against his limited recovery.
For a Falcon player to shine it would require the player to work around Falcon's limitations. Modern Falcons seem to be focussing alot on zoning lately and using his speed to his advantage and platforms to reach their opponents for example. This isn't because they want to, it's because they need to. His options out of shield are very limited and shield pressure/shinegrabs are things you want to avoid. Because if 1 hit connects you're pretty much toast vs a good player that knows how to play the matchup. This is why Falcons move around alot and use alot of stage tricks. Make them play your game and not the other way around (altho this can be quite hard when some spastic bird is spamming lasers on yo ***).
So yes, Falcon can win a National but it would require the player to make little to no mistakes and have some serious tricks to make up for the qualities he's lacking.
So you can either wait for your knight in shining armor to do this someday, or you can try to be that knight yourself
I don't think anyone has reached Falcon's full potential yet although people have come really close. I'm not giving up on this character.