I agree with that, Okami. I feel like you could play against a Wario more or less like it was a puff with a worse recovery, but yeah I think Reflex is just a really, really smart player and won't be falling for any projectile tricks lol.
Probably 60-40 in TL's favor, but I don't have enough experience to know.
Also, I don't really like using the same projectile two times in a row, Jolt. Reason being is that a human being is not likely to fall into the same projectile twice in a row, and mixing up the options often keeps the opponent on their toes. At close range, I think you could do rang -> rang though, but I'd personallly rather follow up a nair or an approaching sh Arrow instead.