[COLLAPSE="On Marth:"]
From what I remember, the 2008 frame data thread
http://www.smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=204825 is fairly accurate.
I don't like to use frame data as a means of defining a matchup, however. While I extensively apply it during gameplay, mere numbers can't give strong enough an insight in the MU (look at Mario's frame data, that stuff is ridiculously broken). Marth's spacing is in an entire league of its own in terms of safety, versatility and pressure. A retreating nair is safe in every possible way, the only way to effectively counter it is by accepting the fact that you just got a tad bit more zoning, IF IT'S WHIFFED.
There's the thing, there's the moving wall concept Marc is so salty about. If it's whiffed it's... sorta ok? If it hits you it hits you, if it hits your shield you're in a worse position than before.
Honestly, nair on shield gives him so many options which are safe to throw out. Not safe because you have to make a fairly hard read to counter it, but because there's just extremely minimal counterplay to every followup he makes. Even if you commit to making a read, you face the problem that a missed read almost always loses to whatever other option he's choosing to commit to. You predict that tipper fsmash after the nair? Only real counterplay is spotdodging (and timing it well, too!). If you spotdodge and he decides to go for another SH nair, SH fair, jab, dtilt or simply doing nothing you'll get wrecked for it. Your amount of effective counterplay options already greatly diminishes when you get to fsmash killing percent, if only because getting grabbed is almost inevitable with the amount of commitments Wario has to make.
If you stop committing because you're afraid of being grabbed, you stop having options and the MU is over. You must commit to shield approaches to (re)take zoning, you must commit to bland SH fairs to beat his fastfalled aerials and you must commit to FH DJ dair (note: FH DJ dair is probably the most commitment you can put in an approach) if you want to beat out mere advancing nairs. Marth constantly forces you to react even though he doesn't even have to throw anything out to do that. If he simply dashes at you you must make a choice, a choice that has a large chance of being countered by an empty shorthop.
As said, you're forced to throw out stuff you don't usually want to randomly throw out. His empty short hop is deadly because if you don't have the balls to go up to him and commit to an advancing fair (you can try bair but fair being a lasting hitbox is an important asset) he's going to give you headaches with whatever option he chooses.
I'm not sure if I'm repeating things, if that's the case I'm sorry this is just a stream of consciousness.
Being ledge trapped is also stupid and you must force yourself to either spend resources to go high enough to have a shot of safely landing onstage (resources being a double jump and perhaps your bike) or to do something that simply isn't safe, like ledge hopping a Bite or an airdodge. Again, you have to respond. You can't stay on the ledge especially with how tight Wario's ledge invincibility refresh options are, keep in mind that having your double jump dtilted means death. You must respond to him whiffing fastfalled aerials and dtilts at your ledge position, you can't do that with an aerial of your own (in fact, trying to break his wall by doing that and failing means losing your DJ and losing your stock). If you want to come back with an aerial you have to catch him in the startup frames of his jump or simply before he throws out his aerial. How do you do that? Yeah, by starting your move way in advance and risking being dtilted.
It's just really stupid, I'm just sketching scenarios here that are mere examples of the tons and tons of ******** situations you can be put in if Marth is capable of keeping his execution on-point. If you think I am leaving out Wario's counterplay then you should read again because I noted the sort of counterplay Wario tends to have: risky stuff with a meager tradeoff. Stuff that takes a while to actually become a strong setup. You are entirely dependent in this matchup of Marth simply messing up.
And there is the good news: perfect execution from Marth's part is not a human thing. Honestly it's inevitable to mess up for Marth, more so than for any other character we can play against (looks at MK). He will mess up and that will net you something you would otherwise never have access to. Think of a fastfalled uair or simply a SH nair (Marth's physics are PERFECT for Wario's nair), these are moves you would otherwise never get and you'd be stuck with chipping away with fairs, bairs and throws with minimal followup potential (at low%) until they actually become a setup for themselves or other moves (at higher%).
That's how (imo) anyone in here should judge what the MU ratio is. It entirely depends on how perfect you think a human can control Marth and how that translates into this matchup. I believe that level of perfection is potentially very high and that's why I rate it -2.
[/COLLAPSE]
