I understand why people want a first party character, but then again I still wonder why it’s just “first party character”, as if any one Nintendo character just has to be DLC for this game.
There are still some Nintendo characters I would love. Rex is a spirit and Mii costume, for example. Isaac would have been great, but he’s a spirit, costume, and Assist Trophy.
Adding those characters, unfortunately, does not expand the audience the way a 3rd party character and series being introduced to Smash would. It’s not that, say, an obscure Nintendo character or even the newest FE lord doesn’t expand the audience at least a little. But it pales in comparison to what 3rd party series can provide.
When you look at the 3rd parties we have currently, the ones who were added as DLC have a larger potential for broadening the audience. Snake did that in Brawl, no doubt. But that’s an exception considering the circumstances.
Ryu is not only an icon, and SFV is PS4 exclusive, but that brings in the fighting game community as well. He does have the Nintendo connection, but he is effectively an icon of a community.
Cloud is another icon, and of a game/series that has mostly been PlayStation until recently. This brings in fans that might have loved FF7, and haven’t been back to Nintendo since pS1, for example.
Bayonetta, while not so much of an icon, was a new big title for Nintendo and Platinum. Bayonetta was a hit when it was on Xbox/PS3, so to have her exclusive in Smash at least attempted to draw rabid fans of those games to Nintendo and to get access to her games again.
Joker draws in the Persona/SMT fanbase, which doesn’t necessarily overlap with the others. The series may not be as big, but it certainly taps into something different.
Sonic, Mega Man, Pac-Man and to me the Belmont’s are a tad different. Sonic was pre-DLC, and Mega-Man got his start on Nintendo (just like Castlevania). As they’re packaged into the $60 price tag, you’ll get old time Nintendo fans who may or may not be interested in the first place. Pac-Man is Pac-Man, but I don’t really see him as a “ZOMG MUST BUY DLC” pick for people who wouldn’t have bought Smash.
Pokémon is 2nd in playable characters. Fire Emblem is up there too. Those fanbases have a ton of stuff already. How many fans does a Gen 8 or Three Houses character actually bring in?
Compare that to Dragon Quest, the 2nd largest JRPG in Japan (and 8th highest selling Japanese-created series) and Resident Evil, titan horror-genre series and 7th highest selling Japanese-created series. Those are gold mines of fans and profit.
I would need a pretty good argument to expect a first party.