Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[Kantrip]

Oh Bardull, always fun with you. I think I'm about ready to post my wall. I tried to organize it but then by the end I kind of forgot its purpose. I hope it helps though.

 

[BarDulL]

Lol, just being silly. I'm about as confused as you are about NAs, but assuming there really isn't an explanation for Sword being redirected despite being Ascetic (it is impossible to be redirected if you're Ascetic according to how my role PM is worded), I think the simple answer is that Sword is scum.

 

[BarDulL]

Or there was a mod error.

I don't think the role modifier is actually bogus though because...OH YEAH! DUH!

Kantrip, Circus targeted my slot N1. I'm a claimed Ascetic, so the current explanation is that his role didn't work because he targeted me (formerly JDietz).

 

[Kantrip]

Oh man thanks for that! So your Ascetic has been confirmed too then!

Swords can not have been targeted by a Redirect ability, but July getting killed by poison confirms he is Ascetic. I doubt it was a MOD error. Scum could have had something that replaced targets at OS to go to RR instead.

 

[Kantrip]

It's Better Than an OS Wall - Kantplay's Action Analysis

Night Shenanigans

Copy
Hide
Bus
Block
Redirect
Protect
Miscellaneous
Kill
Recruit
Inspect

Our Roles (flipped / not flipped)

Protectives

Town Jailer
Town Volunteer Backup -> Town Jailer (change occurred before N1)
Town Posu-Doctor
Town Dia-Doctor -> Town Switch-Doctor (change occurred before N2)

Investigatives

Town Consulting Detective
Town Scanner-Cop -> Lover's Scanner-Succubus (change occurred before N4)
Town Weak Voyeur-Cop
Town Yaso-Cop

Kills

Town Vigilante
Shadow Inquisitor
Town Backup Vigilante -> Town Vigilante (change occurred before N3)
Mafia Poison

Miscellaneous

Town Overconfident Child

Passive

Lover's Pillowmaster
Shadow Inquisitor's Aspect
Town Cop Enabler
Town Doctor Enabler
Town Self-watcher
Town Sadsack

The following actions are either confirmed true, claimed, or heavily inferred. I'll leave theorizing until later in this post.

Day 1

Rajam, Ryotaro Dojima, Town Jailer is lynched.

Night 1

Raziek, Elizabeth, Town Volunteer Backup / Town Jailer Jails __________. (Probably Overswarm)

Chuckie, Yukiko Amagi, Town Posu-Doctor Protects _____________ from poison.

July, Teddie Teddie, Town Dia-Doctor Protects Chuckie, Yukiko Amagi, Town Posu-Doctor from all killing abilities.

Potassium, Naoto Shirogane, Town Consulting Detective Investigates Ryker, Nyarlathotep, Shadow Inquisitor (action failed).

Sworddancer., Aigis, Town Weak Voyeur-Cop Investigates Overswarm, ____________, Town Backup Vigilante (OS was targeted by a Kill, a Protect, an Investigate, and a Miscellaneous).

Circus, Kou Ichijo, Town Yaso-Cop Investigates Jdietz, Sayoko Uehara, Town Doctor Enabler (action failed).

soup, Shinjiro Aragaki, Town Vigilante Shoots Le Bataleur, Shadow Yumi, Shadow Inquisitor's Aspect.

Ryker, Nyarlathotep, Shadow Inquisitor Shoots Potassium, Naoto Shirogane, Town Consulting Detective or Overswarm, ____________, Town Backup Vigilante.

__________, Mafia __________ Shoots Potassium, Naoto Shirogane, Town Consulting Detective or Shoots/Poisons Overswarm, ____________, Town Backup Vigilante.

Red Ryu, Shu Nakajima, Town Overconfident Child Targets Overswarm, ____________, Town Backup Vigilante.

Potassium, Naoto Shirogane, Town Consulting Detective is killed.

Le Bataleur, Shadow Yumi, Shadow Inquisitor's Aspect is killed.

Day 2

Ranmaru, Rise Kujikawa, Town Scanner-Cop Investigates Overswarm (OS has the characteristics Strongman, Potential, and Persistence).

Chuckie, Yukiko Amagi, Town Posu-Doctor is lynched.

Night 2

Raziek, Elizabeth, Town Volunteer Backup / Town Jailer Protects __________.

July, Naked Teddie, Town Switch-Doctor Protects Sworddancer., Aigis, Town Weak Voyeur-Cop.

Sworddancer., Aigis, Town Weak Voyeur-Cop Investigates OS but is forced onto Red Ryu, Shu Nakajima, Town Overconfident Child (RR was targeted by an Investigate).

Circus, Kou Ichijo, Town Yaso-Cop Investigates BRB, Not Posting, Nyarlathotep, Shadow Inquisitor (BRB is a male that does not attend Yasogami High School).

soup, Shinjiro Aragaki, Town Vigilante Shoots Raziek, Elizabeth, Town Volunteer Backup / Town Jailer.

BRB, Not Posting, Nyarlathotep, Shadow Inquisitor Shoots soup, Shinjiro Aragaki, Town Vigilante.

__________, Mafia __________ Poisons __________?

soup, Shinjiro Aragaki, Town Vigilante Shoots BRB, Not Posting, Nyarlathotep, Shadow Inquisitor with a Vengeful shot.

Red Ryu, Shu Nakajima, Town Overconfident Child Targets __________.

Raziek, Elizabeth, Town Volunteer Backup / Town Jailer is killed.

soup, Shinjiro Aragaki, Town Vigilante is killed.

BRB, Not Posting, Nyarlathotep, Shadow Inquisitor is killed.

Day 3 is skipped.

Night 3

July, Naked Teddie, Town Switch-Doctor Protects Sworddancer., Aigis, Town Weak Voyeur-Cop.

Sworddancer., Aigis, Town Weak Voyeur-Cop Investigates J, Vincent, Lover's Pillowmaster (J was targeted by two Investigates).

Circus, Kou Ichijo, Town Yaso-Cop Investigates J, Vincent, Lover's Pillowmaster (J is a male that does not attend Yasogami High School).

__________, Mafia __________ Poisons July, Naked Teddie, Town Switch-Doctor.

Red Ryu, Shu Nakajima, Town Overconfident Child Targets PrivateJoker-Brown, Chie Satonaka, Town Cop Enabler.

No one is killed.

Day 4

Ranmaru, Rise Kujikawa, Town Scanner-Cop Investigates Kary (Kary is a female).

Red Ryu, Shu Nakajima, Town Overconfident Child is lynched.

Night 4

July, Naked Teddie, Town Switch-Doctor Protects __________.

Sworddancer., Aigis, Town Weak Voyeur-Cop Investigates July, Naked Teddie, Town Switch-Doctor (July was targeted by an Investigate).

Circus, Kou Ichijo, Town Yaso-Cop Investigates JTB, Naoki Konishi, Town Sadsack (JTB is a male that does attend Yasogami High School).

__________, Mafia __________ Poisons __________?

July, Naked Teddie, Town Switch-Doctor is killed.

Day 5

Potassium, Naoto Shirogane, Town Consulting Detective is revived.

J, Vincent, Lover's Pillowmaster is lynched.

Ranmaru, Cathe-Rise, Lover's Scanner-Succubus is killed as a result.

Night 5

Potassium, Naoto Shirogane, Town Consulting Detective Investigates Kary, Mafia __________ (Swords receives a Mafia result).

Sworddancer., Aigis, Town Weak Voyeur-Cop Investigates Potassium, Naoto Shirogane, Town Consulting Detective (K is targeted by a Kill and an Investigate).

Circus, Kou Ichijo, Town Yaso-Cop Investigates Kary, Mafia __________ (Kary is a female that does not attend Yasogami High School).

__________, Mafia __________ Poisons Potassium, Naoto Shirogane, Town Consulting Detective.

No one is killed.

So what went down?

Night 1 saw three kills. Two from the MOD and one from Swords. Le Bataleur died at the hands of our vig, and I died either from the Shadow Inquisitor or an instantaneous mafia kill. Overswarm was targeted by both a Kill and a Protect according to the result Swords got. This kill was either mafia's poison or the Shadow Inquisitor. If the latter, Overswarm is an Aspect. If the former, Overswarm is town. He was very likely protected by Raz.

Night 2 has 2 instant kills and one kill due to soup being Vengeful. soup appears to have shot at Raziek (a slot he did not like at the time) while BRB, Not Posting shot at soup. Soup killed them with his Vengeful shot. Mafia's poison was either targeted at an Ascetic player or at whomever Raziek protected, as no one died on Night 3. Swords somehow is forced to target Red Ryu when he tried to target Overswarm. Why did this happen?

Night 3 comes along after a lack of a Day 3. Mafia poisons July and the Night is fairly straightforward.

Night 4 sees the death of July and a failed attempt at poisoning by mafia. It is unlikely mafia tried to poison Swords, as he claimed Ascetic. This means they either tried to kill a yet unclaimed Ascetic (PBJ or Bardull), or July protected their target. It's also possible they poisoned J or Ran and that couldn't go through because the two of them were lynched before they could die.

On Night 5, Swords sees a kill on Potassium but Potassium doesn't die. This means he has been poisoned. For targeting Potassium, Swords gets his result from targeting Kary (Kary is mafia). Kary lying about his role is confirmed by Circus.

Now the moment you've all been waiting for, my opinions. So we basically know Kary is mafia of some sort. He's claiming Traitor but let's not assume anything on that front. He'll be dead soon enough. I sincerely doubt Chuckie was on Overswarm N1, so that means Raziek was. This is pretty much confirmed. Circus' action failed N1 because he was on Bardull.

Joker and Bardull have claimed basically the same damn thing. Bardull's Ascetic has been proven. Beyond that, we can't really prove anything, nor do we have to. Their roles can easily be scum ones as presented.

Swords is not mafia with Kary unless Kary is a traitor. I refuse to believe Swords' honestly claimed the result he got knowing that Kary was on his team. You guys will have to cross the Kary-traitor road if you come to it, and only then should you consider Swords.

JT****ingB. He's done nothing, his role does nothing (except for instill WIFOM about how many scum are left and whether or not people can be recruited), and I don't see either of these points changing. Take everything he says and has said with a huge bucket of salt (and hopefully we won't be filling one in endgame) and you should be okay. I'm mad at Overswarm for believing probable scum players so much. Very well could be mafia.

I'm dying toNight. You'll see me flip town but you may think I'm indy for now, that's fine.

So. Without further ado, my reads:

Potassium
Sworddancer. (don't rule him out on a Kary traitor flip though)
Bardull
Circus
Overswarm (not mafia, indy if anything)
JTB
Joker
Kary

 

[Overswarm]

Three questions are left largely unanswered after my analysis:

What blocked Circus' ability N1?
Why did Swords get redirected to RR?
If OS isn't mafia, why is he playing so badly?

With these answered, everything would truly make sense.

>:[

10 of those

 

[Kantrip]

<3

I'm blunt because I care. I want you to get your head in the game, but it's too busy in JTB's PMs and the world of numbers.

 

[Overswarm]

I'm also right.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

mfw I'm #2 on your scummer list, despite the fact that the only thing you said about me in your post is that my claim is exactly as suspicious as BarDulL's, yet you have him as a townie.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

it's an angry face

 

[BarDulL]

It's not just about claims yo. It's about trust.

 

[Kantrip]

Joker all I commented on in those little blurbs was claims and credibility. My reads actually went unexplained for the most part. Your play has been super self-centered and aggressively defensive and a lot of specific things I don't want to get into, but don't worry you deserve your spot.

 

[BarDulL]

Still, I want sword's ascetic modifier explained. Letting him off the hook when there's a clear contradiction staring us right in the face is ******** no matter how townie he seems.

 

[Kantrip]

Intent.

You think he claimed that he was forced to target RR even though he tried to target OS as scum? Honestly, scum would find it way easier to lie about that. Say you meant to target RR, say your action went off without a hitch, say something. I honestly don't see anything to address here and I'm fine with saying scum did something shifty.

 

[BarDulL]

It doesn't matter. There needs to be an explanation for it. If there is no explanation, then his claim is fake. That's the bottom line.

 

[Kantrip]

That's assuming the only explanation is that he was targeted with a Redirect ability, which simply isn't true.

His Ascetic claim has been confirmed by July dying to poison. He wasn't told he was redirected to RR, he was told that he "was forced to target RR" when he tried to target OS. This could mean someone used an ability to switch RR and OS in targeting somehow, or a number of other things. Bottom line is, it's not necessarily a "explain or die" situation. He could be town and not know what happened.

 

[BarDulL]

That's a good point. However, the same night Swird had to target RR was the same night July targeted Sword. July explains the ENTIRE phenomenon and why things happened the way they did.

 

[BarDulL]

Unless July was mistaken, she otherwise explained everything in regards to why her targeting of Sword forced Sword to check RR iirc. Something isn't right here.

 

[BarDulL]

Unless there is an ability that ignored Ascetic effects and subsequently disabled Sword's role modifier (although the language of the role pm suggests that that isn't possible) there's no other explanation other than Sword is lying about his role.

I need someone to check Sword tonight to see if he's truly Ascetic. We can figure out where to go from there.

 

[BarDulL]

Sword, are you against Circus checking you?

 

[Kantrip]

Let's say Overswarm has an ability that makes him immune to Night actions for the Night, and instead anything used on him will instead be used on ____________ as if they were him. He uses this on Red Ryu, ergo Sworddancer's action on him is "forced" onto Red Ryu.

This is just one possible explanation to show you that there is another explanation besides Swords is lying about his role.

 

[BarDulL]

July explains the phenomenon and why things happened the way they did dude. I know you're sold on Sword Town, but I really think Circus should double check and see what happens. If Circus is successful, Sword has some serious explaining to do.

 

[Kantrip]

Wait what was July's explanation? Her role as described doesn't seem to function in a way that makes what you're suggesting possible.

Also I would be fine with Circus checking Swords, but then he can't check Joker unless we have no one targeting me.

 

[BarDulL]

Hrmmmmmmmm........whackness. I'll think on it. I remember the redirection being clarified, I'll look back when I'm not on my phone.

 

[BarDulL]

Sorry Kantrip, couldn't get to a computer last night and I ended up getting really busy toDay with only quick hits on Smashboards. Had a reeeeeaallllly lengthy day and found myself speaking for like 5 hours straight to my family about some issues. I'm pretty wiped and exhausted as a result, so no playing from me. I will address how I feel NAs/rest of the day should go down though. So, without further ado:

Deadline is in....19 hours I believe, so we need people ready to hardbody Kary. I preferably want JTB/PJB to hammer just in case there's some BS mechanic where executioner eats hammerer's face off.

We need players using their NAs on Kantrip because we need another night of investigative results. Kantrip should check whomever he feels is the correct player to check. IMO OS/PJB/JTB are good choices for Kantrip to check, but risking the possibility of PJB actually being ascetic may not be worth it when we can get another clear/scum instead. I feel a little paranoid about Circus because he hasn't been posting as much, but that could just be my paranoia (ScumCircus usually sits in the background, i.e. G3S Mafia as Indy Marker). Anyway, Circus/Sword, or both, should be on Kantrip in order to get his results.

OS should shoot only if something crazy happens. BUT ONLY IF SOMETHING CRAZY HAPPENS.

Everyone else should just do whatever.

Kantrip, I haven't decided if you should out who you're going to check. Completely up to you. I think it's better if you do on the premise that there would be no dumb surprises as a result. Admittedly I'm still a little skeptical about Sword because I have no clue why Sword was forced to target someone else on one of the nights. I thought it was explained by July but I haven't thoroughly looked for the post yet since I'm tired AF. I'll look toMorrow and talk to you about it. I'm too busy to do it now because I'm supposed to be looking for presents online as a last minute attempt at saving Christmas for my family. :/

Guess that's it for now. Will be back tomorrow.

 

[Overswarm]

Wait, didn't Kantrip's results fail the night he died? Kantrip died and his ability failed.

Kantrip do you know if anyone else received the message from you earlier in the game?

 

[Kantrip]

Yes it failed. Hence the brackets saying (action failed) under my N1 action. Ryker was just who I tried to target.

Investigate is after Kill in the NAR

 

[Overswarm]

Kill was generally first in my NAR.

 

[BarDulL]

Kantrip dies of poison though, so his night action should still go through (unless investigation result comes after poison occurs on D7...)

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Sorry for absence, internet was out.

Vote: Kary

This Day is over. PJB or JTB, hammer.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

@BarDull: Actually, I remember what happened pretty well wrt July's claim.

After July claimed here role modifiers, she just said that "and I guess because of my role modifiers Swords got redirected." However, she never actually said why her role modifiers would redirect me. If you read over her role modifiers, there's nothing there to suggest that July would have actually redirected me.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Then before N2 I found out that I was now Naked Teddie, Town Switch-Doctor. I can now protect someone with my bear suit which protects them for ANY activities which could poison or kill them during the Night or which could change their alignment. My modifiers are Naked, which means that any activities which target me will be redirected to the person on whom I used my active ability, My Fur Makes Two which gives me a second vote, and Potential, which means my role can change again if certain conditions are met.

N2 and N3 I targeted Swords. I'm guessing the Naked ability is why his results got all messed up N2, and I'm guessing that N3 he was the nk target since there was no kill that Night.

Yeah like, there's nothing here that suggests that Naked would redirect me. It just states that naked would redirected abilities onto me. July never explained why this would redirect.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

Man whenever dead players start viewing the thread I get nervous, because I'm willing to bet that there's a graveyard in this game were the set up is explained. Vanderzant is either cheering right now or yelling at his computer screen about something dumb we're missing.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

And then he leaves! I always love calling out dead players in thread and then watching them leave.

Anyways, about Night actions. I'm fine with having Kantrip investigating one of JTB or OS. I actually don't care so much about investigating PJB at all. Rather or not he's scum, I believe him on his ascetic claim. There's no reason to believe that scum wouldn't have ascetic in this set up. In matter of fact, it would be good for them considering that it would protect them from recruits and investigations. That said, I don't believe PJB would lie about having ascetic, and even if we confirmed that he did have ascetic, my read on him wouldn't change that much. The only gain possible we could get out of investigating him would be to catch him in the lie, but I think that the probability of that is so low that it's not really even worth doing.

So, Kantrip investigates one of JTB/OS, and me and Circus on him? That sounds okay. Would also be okay with me on Kantrip, Kantrip on JTB, and Circus investigating OS. Either one is fine for me.

 

[Overswarm]

Sorry for absence, internet was out.

Vote: Kary

This Day is over. PJB or JTB, hammer.

Hammering Kary will cost us the game.

Scum want to lynch Kary. They HAVE to lynch Kary. You know that mafia have to be on the lynch for it to work. We will autolose the moment Kary is hammered.

PJB/JTB, do not hammer. It'll cost town the game if you do.

Seriously this is game. If you no lynch it isn't possible for the game to be over because we'll have SEVEN players left instead of six. We'll lose absolutely nothing.

Don't lynch.

 

[Overswarm]

Seriously, think about it. Ask yourself if mafia would be on the lynch if it were going to occur.

I'm not mafia SD, you believe this yourself. If I'm not mafia, that means JTB and PJB are mafia. So why are you expecting them to hammer if Kary is mafia?

I'm here, and I'm not hammering anyone. It's too risky and toMorrow gives us the most information. It'll validate Kantrip's results, get more results from Kantrip hopefully (and if it does, this'll validate a theory I have), potentially show us who is poisoned if SD guesses right, etc.

Lynching Kary will result in an independent flip and the game will be over. Mark my words, then do the math for yourself.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

I did the math. There can only be three scum left if we trust JTB's result, which you seem to. I'm not at all worried about validating Kantrip's result because I doubt that he'll flip indie, and even if he does, there's no reason to believe that his ability would change.

No lynching doesn't do anything for us but calm your unreasonable paranoia over Kantrip's slot. If we no lynch now, what will be accomplished? We're lose Kantrip, and another townie would be poisoned, and that's only the best case scenario. Worst case scenario, some unknowable scum stuff goes down during the Night and we lose BECAUSE we didn't lynch Kary.

If we no lynch, and the game doesn't end, then so what? We're be put back into the same situation we are in toMarrow. We would still need to lynch Kary, as we need to do toDay.

Stop making this argument that scum wouldn't vote their partner in this situation. There's three scum left. Five townies left. Scum COULD not vote their partner, but the entirety of town still can. Thus, scum WOULD want to bus their partner. Like, out of Circus and BarDull, I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was scum, doing EXACTLY what scum would logically want to do in this situation: Bus the partner with a cop guilty on them when town still has the majority.

Now, JTB, OS, PJB. You ALL can't be scum. One of you hammer.

 

[Overswarm]

No lynching doesn't do anything for us but calm your unreasonable paranoia over Kantrip's slot. If we no lynch now, what will be accomplished? We're lose Kantrip, and another townie would be poisoned, and that's only the best case scenario. Worst case scenario, some unknowable scum stuff goes down during the Night and we lose BECAUSE we didn't lynch Kary.

If we no lynch, and the game doesn't end, then so what? We're be put back into the same situation we are in toMarrow. We would still need to lynch Kary, as we need to do toDay.

Are you high?

Kary is indie. SCUM HAS TO LYNCH KARY. THAT IS WHY SCUM IS ON THE WAGON.

Even if you think there are only 2 scum that aren't Kary, I am not voting for Kary. That means of the 8 of us, there would be 4 (2 scum, myself, and Kary) not voting. It takes five to lynch.

Tomorrow MAFIA will attempt to lynch Kary. Town will attempt to lynch MAFIA. You can bet your hat on it.

I've been the only one going against this lynch all day, that has to at least illuminate the possibility that there are two alignments on this lynch. If there are two alignments on the lynch, it is by default bad for town. Town NEEDS an indie around so town can lynch mafia.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

-BarDull getting suspicious over my slot because of one thing I can't possibly explain, jumps the gun in calling me scum for it.
-BarDull somehow justifies me being more credible for being suspicious of Circus than him despite the fact that it was public information that Circus was an investigate. Misrepresents what actually went down Day 5.
-PJB continues to be lurky, only to come in to defend self. Shows lurker tendencies over inactive tendencies.
-Same pretty much applies to JTB, except JTB isn't defending himself, more so just explaining results. Has unreasonable paranoia suspicion that Kary is actually baiting out the kill, which just seems unlikely given the circumstances of which he was caught (don't think that he's necessarily scummy for this though).
-Circus goes completely inactive toDay. Has weird explanation for why he didn't target Kantrip.
-OS is just . . . wow.

This game.

 

[#HBC | Dancer]

OS, answer this: How can there be Kary indie + 3 mafia with JTB's results? You're ignoring this point to death.