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Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

ranmaru

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idk I just want to know why someone would put a vote on a player that maybe doesn't even know his alignment (and hence any reaction gotten would be... useless?) Probably I'm of the idea that players should find in fist place which other players know at least their alignment, and then proceed to scumhunt, so that's why I'm asking that
The reason I ask is because others have RVS voted too, and even I voted Le Bateluer without having my present opened yet. I mean I don't think your question would have mattered since others may have been voting people without their targets knowing their alignments either. Did you notice this when you asked this?

Also I will say RR's vote on me was weird. I felt he may have been trying to get me to vote off the Le Bateluer wagon or something. What do you think of this?
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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Ran, did you guess the theme yet? Do you have your real role?
 

Rajam

Smash Champion
Joined
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Messages
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Location
Santiago, Chile
The reason I ask is because others have RVS voted too, and even I voted Le Bateluer without having my present opened yet. I mean I don't think your question would have mattered since others may have been voting people without their targets knowing their alignments either. Did you notice this when you asked this?

Also I will say RR's vote on me was weird. I felt he may have been trying to get me to vote off the Le Bateluer wagon or something. What do you think of this?
ah ok, that was the 1st RVS vote I saw (more or less isolated) so that's why I asked
 

ranmaru

Smash Legend
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SW-0654 7794 0698
Nope. I lost my guess trying to get the voice actor layer. So I'm on Layer 3 for now. I already have an idea what role I am though.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
Joined
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Messages
6,865
Something I don't understand wrt Tako is the fact he lied about the knowing the real theme and had this weird *** plan incorporated with it. I don't understand the incentive to lie about it in the first place unless he was trying to scumhunt mechanically, as I feel he could have done it to garner reactions. I know Tako has done this before as both alignments, but he never followed up on it either way.

Why did he replace out, anyways?
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
Joined
Sep 15, 2010
Messages
6,865
Overswarm said:
1) I disagree strongly with a No Lynch. No Lynching results in a 0% success rate for town. Lynching gives us the potential at hitting mafia or independent. Like it or not, Town will die throughout this game via lynch and night kills. Us lynching one on D1 is not helpful for town, but it isn't a guaranteed lynch of a townie even if we don't have concrete information. To not lynch someone means that we miss a chance to lynch scum that we do not get back.

There are times when No Lynch is acceptable, but they are always mathematical. We don't know the ratio of town to scum, how many people will die during the night, or any of the other variables so we cannot make any progress on a No Lynch. While it might feel like progress to start the Day anew with everyone knowing their full role, I have to point out that this is how Day One normally starts, and in this case it will be Day Two with at least one townie dead.

Someone not knowing their alignment doesn't change that and, more importantly, we have no way of knowing who doesn't know their alignment for real toDay. It's very easy to lie about that and say "already used my guess". I don't suggest random lynching, but lynching a role that has been dodgy, inactive, absent, illogical, or unhelpful in some other way is a far superior way to go. It's always been that way and this game is no different.
I don't think the Mafia can kill they haven't shared a QT with each other yet. The only implication of this to happen would merely be a confirmation of a scumteam existing in the confirmations. Even if that was the case, scum would be very aware of this. I do agree in a way, that people can lie about not knowing their alignment. This is where the No Lynch comes in, as nobody will have an excuse for tommorow. I want to get that factor out of the way and get down to the grit of things. This day has not focused on scumhunting for the most part and has mostly revolved around the mechanics. This is fine, as already explained multiple times from myself and others. The fact remains that even if we hit a mafia, there are going to play like they don't know anything, regardless if they know their partners or not. If I was Mafia I would murk the waters as much as I could as it's kind of like playing as a traitor for the day. I wouldn't have a commitment to another team and I have no reason to try and make my partners transparent. Lynching an anti-town role is great, but that comes with the risk of possibly killing a town one also. Do you believe for there to be scum in the players who have their alignment, or the possibly the people who could be lying about theirs?

I am curious about a lot of variables in that, but here's my big question to you at the moment:

If you have a gut read on Kantrip scum and this is something worth mentioning to town, why would you go for a No Lynch instead of just stating outright that you would prefer Kantrip lynched over anyone else?

I am curious as to how this would help town or fit into your own mindset at this stage of the game.
Refer to my last paragraph to you. That's basically the reasoning why I'm against lynching today. Would you be opposed of possibly lynching a town role under this circumstance also, with the scum possibly not being sure of their alignment or lying about it? This is where my last question is directed to you, and why you believe that this is fruitful. I don't want to lynch Kantrip on lack of confidence on it as I don't have enough to make a defining argument. I don't like lynching players on nothing unless the circumstances are special and it's strong enough to do so.
 

Overswarm

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21,181
kuz said:
Apologies if you are a real person.
My favorite post in the game so far.

soup said:
I just felt like you were more willing to keep your mouth closed about things and pursue what interested here, but here you've kicked into overdrive and haven't really substantiated on your logic with some certain things. Is this just because of your catchup style? It always bothers me.
You are playing the fence and making a lot of vague-*** statements like you know someone's meta inside and out but "Somethings.... fishy" *thunderclap* and you point at them and go "eh? EH? Hey everybody, eh? Anyone bitin'?"

Quit it. Step out of the grey and tell us how you feel, don't wait for our approval.


Kary said:
if LeBat is someone else on this playerlist, who is it?
HOoooooooooooly crap. You just opened some doors for me. If La Bat is someone, it'd be chuckie. Classic indie hunting rule: the person who seems to know more than they should, does.

Chuckie happened to guess the tarot card theme from the hanged man and a simultaneous desire to look up a translation of a player's name who had made one post? I can buy it as it's something I would do if I had the slightest inkling, but I didn't. Only Chuckie did.

Chuckie then asks what we should do about La Bat and if we should lynch him or not, carefully playing the fence there.

I think we all know what tarot card La Bat and Chuckie would share.

My only hangup here is that Chuckie didn't DO anything about it. It's just been sitting there. I'm not down to lynch Chuckie or La Bat on a hunch, but the two existing in a close relationship is something to take note of.

soup said:
I don't think the Mafia can kill they haven't shared a QT with each other yet. The only implication of this to happen would merely be a confirmation of a scumteam existing in the confirmations.
So you don't think that mafia, who in HPotter mafia had someone who could night kill on Night one and knew his scummates immediately so he didn't accidentally kill them, can night kill on Night 1 this game?

And you don't think mafia has a quick topic, which would undoubtedly be either given to them ASAP or locked into their roles... which we have completely and openly solved for everyone?

Please, explain to me how in this game mafia could not have a night kill.


Even if that was the case, scum would be very aware of this. I do agree in a way, that people can lie about not knowing their alignment. This is where the No Lynch comes in, as nobody will have an excuse for tommorow. I want to get that factor out of the way and get down to the grit of things.
What does this even mean? Why do we care if someone lies about their alignment? It's not like everyone will say "I know my alignment, I got scum" tomorrow. They're still going to say Town. There's no "accidental scumslip" that's going to happen the moment they know their alignment and scum certainly aren't going to discover each other and then immediately buddy up the following day for you to notice.

Your No Lynch plan doesn't make any sense. It is bad and you should feel bad.

This day has not focused on scumhunting for the most part and has mostly revolved around the mechanics. This is fine, as already explained multiple times from myself and others. The fact remains that even if we hit a mafia, there are going to play like they don't know anything, regardless if they know their partners or not.
As opposed to WHAT? In a standard game you don't catch mafia and have them say "Oh no, spare me! Lynch Soup instead, he's the mafia godfather! He'll be the one you REALLY want!"

They just say "I'm not scum", get lynched, flip scum.

I repeat: SCUM KNOWING THEIR PARTNERS ONLY GIVES INFORMATION TO SCUM, NOT TOWN.

If I was Mafia I would murk the waters as much as I could as it's kind of like playing as a traitor for the day. I wouldn't have a commitment to another team and I have no reason to try and make my partners transparent. Lynching an anti-town role is great, but that comes with the risk of possibly killing a town one also. Do you believe for there to be scum in the players who have their alignment, or the possibly the people who could be lying about theirs?
What whathaw;etalgjlaejv;laekjv;aerlkgjrawe

Are you ****ing braindead?

"If I was Mafia I would murk the waters as much as I could as it's kind of like playing as a traitor for the day"

This doesn't even make sense. It does not APPLY.

Mafia faction doesn't know their alignment = they wouldn't know to "murk the waters"

Mafia faction knows their alignment = they can talk to each other and play like a normal team

I mean WTF. That's using your assumptions!

Furthermore, I already explained to you why lynching is always a good policy. It is Town's one guaranteed chance to catch scum. We do not get a second chance to lynch on Day One. You can't make a mathematical argument because we don't know how many killing roles there are. "Oh no we accidentally lynched a town player", big whoop. You want to push that logic to further days? Why not No Lynch EVERY day, we might hit town!

Because lynching is how you catch scum. We've got a pretty odd slot here with Rajam/Tako already that's looking like a good bet, and the more you post the more it looks like you're protecting that slot.

soup said:
Refer to my last paragraph to you. That's basically the reasoning why I'm against lynching today. Would you be opposed of possibly lynching a town role under this circumstance also, with the scum possibly not being sure of their alignment or lying about it? This is where my last question is directed to you, and why you believe that this is fruitful. I don't want to lynch Kantrip on lack of confidence on it as I don't have enough to make a defining argument. I don't like lynching players on nothing unless the circumstances are special and it's strong enough to do so.
Scum knowing or not knowing their alignment has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not we've got the ability to lynch scum.

If we don't lynch Rajam today he will still be here tomorrow and we're in the same place we were today except we are one day short. You think mafia is going to kill someone that will give us the ability to say "Ah HA! It was person X that killed them!"? That's not something I'm going to bank on. Cops, watchers, dumb NKills, that kind of stuff is all a bonus. You don't sit there and No Lynch and hope you catch them in the Night, you play the game during the Day.

So if you think Kantrip is scummy enough to where you can come out and cast him into a bad light for all of town to see and you DON'T believe he should be lynched, you either need to be working hard to get that information or you need to rethink your strategy.

I understand it can be scary not knowing if you have a for-sure thing or not but you will lynch town in a mafia game.

Play the long game, not the short game. If we lynch Rajam today and we're only worried about whether he'll flip town or scum, statistically speaking he's gonna flip town. We have to look at his and Tako's actions. They flip that counter quite a bit more towards "scum".

Possibility for town is still there. But if we don't take a lynch, then we're in teh same spot we're in tomorrow with one random dead body of scum's choosing. No Lynch is far and away the worst idea town can ever have unless tehy have a mathematical backing.
 

#HBC | Nabe

Beneath it all, he had H-cups all along
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Votecount 1-5

10/18 to lynch.

Rajam [9]: Overswarm, Raziek, Red Ryu, PrivateJoker-Brown, Ranmaru, Jdietz43, Chuckie, Potassium, Kary
No Lynch [2]: JTB, soup
Overswarm [1]: Rajam
July [1]: J
Raziek [1]: Le Bateleur

Not voting: Circus, Sworddancer., July, Ryker

------------------------------------------------------------

[collapse=Vote Log] Circus
Overswarm > sneakytako
Ranmaru > Le Bateleur > sneakytako
Sworddancer.
July
sneakytako/Rajam > Red Ryu > Overswarm > Unvote > Overswarm
J > July
Ryker
Le Bateleur > Raziek
Private-Joker Brown > sneakytako
Raziek > sneakytako
Chuckie > Le Bateleur > sneakytako
Jdietz43 > soup > sneakytako
ѕoup > Le Bateleur > No Lynch > Unvote > No Lynch
JTB > No Lynch
Kary > Rajam
Potassium > soup > Overswarm > Rajam
Red Ryu > Potassium > Ranmaru > sneakytako > sneakytako
[/collapse]

Deadline is November 7th at 15:00 Eastern.
 

Rajam

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lmao what did tako say (...or me) to be almost dead? I had no idea I was already dying lol

Let me at least catchup a little to give some reads / oppinions before the hammer :mad:
 

#HBC | Ryker

Netplay Monstrosity
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Actually have Gova, have all our shenanigans straightened out, just need a password reset because we can't get into the account.

I want to catch up before the day ends and I don't want him hammered without a claim.
 

#HBC | Ryker

Netplay Monstrosity
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That took me looking at it, leaving for ten minutes, and then thinking about it to realize what you meant.

:phone:
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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Overswarm said:
You are playing the fence and making a lot of vague-*** statements like you know someone's meta inside and out but "Somethings.... fishy" *thunderclap* and you point at them and go "eh? EH? Hey everybody, eh? Anyone bitin'?"

Quit it. Step out of the grey and tell us how you feel, don't wait for our approval.
I'm not waiting for approval. I'm doing things on my own and letting people know where my head is at. I've already stated that beyond that, it's not solid enough. I don't feel you're someone who is inept on things like this but scum don't lynch themselves, and they certainly don't have a reason to get lynched if there isn't one that is ever put out there. What I'm trying to say really, is deal with it.

So you don't think that mafia, who in HPotter mafia had someone who could night kill on Night one and knew his scummates immediately so he didn't accidentally kill them, can night kill on Night 1 this game?

And you don't think mafia has a quick topic, which would undoubtedly be either given to them ASAP or locked into their roles... which we have completely and openly solved for everyone?

Please, explain to me how in this game mafia could not have a night kill.
This game is much different than HPotter mafia. The present system is nothing like the system used in HPotter. We got our Role PMs and our alignment together, there wasn't a need to guess. I'm getting kicked out of this place so I'm continuing this immediately once I find an applicable spot to steal some WiFi.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
Joined
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Messages
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Continuing where I left off before I was rudely interrupted. I was mafia in HPotter. We were given indentities in our Role PMs but we were without our abilities. All we knew is our fake role and our alignment.

[collapse="My fake role from Halloween Party"]
Nabe said:



“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

Welcome to the game, Soupamario! You are dressed as Winston Churchill, as seen in Into The Storm (2009). You are mafia.

You know that you have two mafia partners – but you can't remember who they are!

You do not choose the nightly kill!

[collapse=Fakeclaim]



“My knee aches every single day! Twice as bad when it is cold. Do you have any idea how long the winter lasts in this country?”

Welcome to the game, Soupamario! You are dressed as Valentin Dmitrovich Zukovsky, as seen in GoldenEye (1995). You are town.

Win condition:
You are town-aligned, and win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

Please confirm that you have read and understood the rules now.
[/collapse]

Win condition:
You are mafia-aligned, and win when the mafia has a majority over everyone else, or when nothing can prevent the same.

Please confirm that you have read and understood the rules now.
[/collapse]
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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Messages
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That being said, I was wrong on the mafia not having a kill, and there was indeed a player in our faction that controlled the kill for us. I'm assuming he also knew us, but we didn't know him. I think Nabe changed some things this time however, because he knew that his game was a bit unbalanced. He changed the idea behind it and added in the present system. I'm not sure of everything on it but there seems be a different in present opening strategies of the alike, possibly being some players having an advantage over another. The pyro and gambler one come to mind. It's against the point but I believe I've made myself clear and we've resolved this issue.

However....
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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Even if all of that has come to conclusions, we are still left out with the greatest issue of all. The players who aren't confirmed of alignment. You got to this a bit in your response to me so allow me to respond accordingly, but I have a couple of things to say. It's very true that they could be lying about it. It's very true that doesn't make a damn near of a difference. But the fact remains above all that it's a slot that will not be willing to do anything regardless if they are lying or not. Have you seen Sword post recently? No? I didn't think so either. He has no reason to and unless you want to advocate to lynch all players that fall under this category, then nothing will be done about him in this phase.

This is what I meant about playing like a traitor. For the scum that do have their alignment, they have no loyalty to any other player. I did not play for my teammates on my D1 in HPotter Mafia. I played for myself and I kept a thumb on people I suspected to be my partner. We get nothing as in terms of progression this day, even if we hit scum. There are too many uncommitted players for one and two it will be a goose hunt. This is why I asked you about you being okay with lynching a plausible town today. What do you get out of this lynch, if he flips town? Tell me. Give me a solid answer. Wash aside the scum feeling and tell me the incentive to lose a town member on this day off nothing. Scum in itself might be telling in some instances, but then it's playing a guessing game. I'm not out to play guessing games anymore.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
Joined
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Messages
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Furthermore, I already explained to you why lynching is always a good policy. It is Town's one guaranteed chance to catch scum. We do not get a second chance to lynch on Day One. You can't make a mathematical argument because we don't know how many killing roles there are. "Oh no we accidentally lynched a town player", big whoop. You want to push that logic to further days? Why not No Lynch EVERY day, we might hit town!

Because lynching is how you catch scum. We've got a pretty odd slot here with Rajam/Tako already that's looking like a good bet, and the more you post the more it looks like you're protecting that slot.
This is not about mathematics. This is about lynching for the benefit of town. Getting scum is something all town should want to do, and I'm all for lynching scum, but there's too many holes in this day to get enough out of it on a lynch. Go through this day, and tell me who you would lynch. Now back that reasoning and tell me what you would do on their flip, regardless of alignment. That's a serious claim.

What's with the unprovoked claim on Rajam towards me? Did you see me highlight him in green before? I have a town-read on the slot and this wagon is worthless as far as I'm concerned. If you're going to make subtle hints to things like this, back it up instead of choking on it.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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Multi-posting is so mcuh cleaner.

If we don't lynch Rajam today he will still be here tomorrow and we're in the same place we were today except we are one day short. You think mafia is going to kill someone that will give us the ability to say "Ah HA! It was person X that killed them!"? That's not something I'm going to bank on. Cops, watchers, dumb NKills, that kind of stuff is all a bonus. You don't sit there and No Lynch and hope you catch them in the Night, you play the game during the Day.
No. It's not about magically catching mafia during the day, it's looking at this day, and moving it into the next one when nobody has an excuse anymore. This is when we get to the grind of things, this is when we can push things. The content produced from this day does not go away, much like Rajam. And even then, we can imply he dies. What's your next move?

So if you think Kantrip is scummy enough to where you can come out and cast him into a bad light for all of town to see and you DON'T believe he should be lynched, you either need to be working hard to get that information or you need to rethink your strategy.
I don't think he should get lynched, today. Reasoning already recited multiple times. I'm not repeating myself.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
Joined
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Messages
6,865
Play the long game, not the short game. If we lynch Rajam today and we're only worried about whether he'll flip town or scum, statistically speaking he's gonna flip town. We have to look at his and Tako's actions. They flip that counter quite a bit more towards "scum"
Let's imply he flips scum. What are you gonna do? Town? What's your motive behind the lynch besides a gut read on him? You're playing at the same level at me only that you're trying to push this lynch and get away with it. You have all the answers, I have all the time.

Possibility for town is still there. But if we don't take a lynch, then we're in teh same spot we're in tomorrow with one random dead body of scum's choosing. No Lynch is far and away the worst idea town can ever have unless tehy have a mathematical backing.
Actually, we have something to go off and discern why that player was shot. We get information out of a night phase as much as we do a day phase. I've said my peace with you and your argument hasn't really made me change my mind. I've gave you a couple of things to refute so I await your responses.

Until then.
 

Rajam

Smash Champion
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Messages
2,175
Location
Santiago, Chile
Right then. Since Le Bateluer (tako?) doesn't want people to give out hints received, the same question that I asked Soup goes out to him.

There literally is no way of knowing rather or not outing "hints," or even the true theme of the game, will benefit town or mafia more. HOWEVER, I would prefer to not *****foot around it, so I will give out the information I have.

Night 0 I choose to "shake the present." I was told that I couldn't really hear anything move around in it, which meant (and this is what the mod told me, not my own speculation) that the final object must of been secured pretty well within the final layer, and that since the presents were likely layered, each object in between was likely thin.

Day 1 I thought that I found the common thread of all the available evidence and was confident enough to guess the true theme of the game. I guessed that we were playing in "Pokemon mafia," but no dice.

Yes, this means that I still don't know my alignment, and I won't until toNight.
Swords, what made you so confident that the theme was pokémon? What is the evidence you were talking about here? Why didn't you save your D1 guess, at least for a little later in the Day, to see if anyone could've provided useful info? Even if you say that you were confident, I think this was a really reckless move...
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
Joined
May 4, 2005
Messages
21,181
Holy crap soup, put it in one post. Way easier to read that way and doesn't spam the game with more pages.

I'm not waiting for approval. I'm doing things on my own and letting people know where my head is at. I've already stated that beyond that, it's not solid enough. I don't feel you're someone who is inept on things like this but scum don't lynch themselves, and they certainly don't have a reason to get lynched if there isn't one that is ever put out there. What I'm trying to say really, is deal with it.
"Letting people know where your head is at" doesn't mean saying "I think Kantrip is scummy, and I'm unsure about Raziek!" and then not substantiating it in any way, shape, or form other than "I dunno man just a gut read lol".

What you're doing is projecting. You're taking a slot, Kantrip, and putting a spotlight on it, and then saying "Oh but don't lynch 'em, it's just a gut read". Making everyone look at Kantrip and you not having reasoning behind it is scummy. That is literally the most basic form of misdirection.

You want to "show us where your head is at", then screw your head on straight and get actual reads and reasoning before pointing someone out and hoping that we pick up on it.

This game is much different than HPotter mafia. The present system is nothing like the system used in HPotter. We got our Role PMs and our alignment together, there wasn't a need to guess. I'm getting kicked out of this place so I'm continuing this immediately once I find an applicable spot to steal some WiFi.
Wait, how do you know that mafia didn't have that this game?


Continuing where I left off before I was rudely interrupted. I was mafia in HPotter. We were given indentities in our Role PMs but we were without our abilities. All we knew is our fake role and our alignment.

[collapse="My fake role from Halloween Party"][/collapse]
That being said, I was wrong on the mafia not having a kill, and there was indeed a player in our faction that controlled the kill for us. I'm assuming he also knew us, but we didn't know him. I think Nabe changed some things this time however, because he knew that his game was a bit unbalanced. He changed the idea behind it and added in the present system. I'm not sure of everything on it but there seems be a different in present opening strategies of the alike, possibly being some players having an advantage over another. The pyro and gambler one come to mind. It's against the point but I believe I've made myself clear and we've resolved this issue.

However....
Yeah, I know you were wrong. It was already stated in the thread by Ryker and he linked us to our roles. I'm at least vaguely familiar with the things I'm talking about. Funny, that.

So basically you're saying that mafia has it different now because... why? Because you think the present system changes things? Because you think Nabe learned a lesson?

Are you really coming from a standpoint of mod meta in this game?


I really want to know why you are so confident mafia is setup in a certain way this time and why HPotter mafia is so different.

Even if all of that has come to conclusions, we are still left out with the greatest issue of all. The players who aren't confirmed of alignment. You got to this a bit in your response to me so allow me to respond accordingly, but I have a couple of things to say. It's very true that they could be lying about it. It's very true that doesn't make a damn near of a difference. But the fact remains above all that it's a slot that will not be willing to do anything regardless if they are lying or not. Have you seen Sword post recently? No? I didn't think so either. He has no reason to and unless you want to advocate to lynch all players that fall under this category, then nothing will be done about him in this phase.
What? If Sword doesn't feel the need to post then we can lynch him. There is no reason to keep someone around because they might be useful later. If someone is scummy, lynch them. If someone is anti-town, lynch them. That's town's one tool. You use it. Is this your first day playing mafia or something? No one talks like this, not even first-timers.

This is what I meant about playing like a traitor. For the scum that do have their alignment, they have no loyalty to any other player. I did not play for my teammates on my D1 in HPotter Mafia. I played for myself and I kept a thumb on people I suspected to be my partner. We get nothing as in terms of progression this day, even if we hit scum.
...What.

Okay.

#1. What you did as scum in HPotter mafia is irrelevant. You have no idea how mafia are set up this time (or do you?)

#2. Loyalty to other players is irrelevant. Scum don't have to be loyal to their partners or even connected. It's called distancing, it's very common. In fact it is just as common as buddying! Part of the game is figuring out what scum is more likely to do.

#3. If we hit scum, OUR PROGRESSION THIS DAY IS THAT WE HIT SCUM AND THERE IS ONE LESS OF THEM.

That is the very definition of progress for town! That's what we want!

There are too many uncommitted players for one and two it will be a goose hunt. This is why I asked you about you being okay with lynching a plausible town today. What do you get out of this lynch, if he flips town? Tell me. Give me a solid answer. Wash aside the scum feeling and tell me the incentive to lose a town member on this day off nothing. Scum in itself might be telling in some instances, but then it's playing a guessing game. I'm not out to play guessing games anymore.
What do we get if he flips town? One less player we won't have to lynch later. We narrow down the choices.

We don't GET another chance. You're coming from the assumption that Rajam is guaranteed town and defending him with all your might, yet you have no reason to assume he is town. Not only that he's got his alignment and a discrepancy in that story.

You don't know that Rajam is town. If he DOES flip town, oh well we've lost a townie. That sucks and is best to be avoided if we know someone will flip town. But riddle me this:

What good does it do for town to be ready to lynch a player only to see them survive to the next day?

They're just on the chopping block then. What do we do? Hope a cop clears them? Hope they "step their game up"? How many free passes are we going to give out if we "aren't sure"?

EVERY DAY PHASE for this game the person we are lynching will more than likely be town because there are more town than scum. Our goal is to lessen those odds by using reasoning, cases, and our night abilities like investigative roles.

Even if we have very weak information, it is STILL always best to lynch. A day one No Lynch is town's worst possible move because then Day 2 will be the exact same as Day 1 except mafia get to choose who to kill.

If we don't lynch we have a 0% chance of catching mafia.

If we lynch, we have a ?% chance of catching mafia, where ? is > 0.

If you want to make a case of "we don't lose a lynch", go for it... but since we don't know the abilities in this game and have no idea how many people are going to die, that case is impossible.

Now I'd be down for a No Lynch if you could show me that X amount of people will die and if we No Lynch we'll get one extra Day phase. Then we'd have the same amount of chances to hit scum and more info. But we have no reason to believe that, and it is rarely the case.

Even if we did, we could always No Lynch on another phase, such as lylo as is most common.


This is not about mathematics. This is about lynching for the benefit of town. Getting scum is something all town should want to do, and I'm all for lynching scum, but there's too many holes in this day to get enough out of it on a lynch. Go through this day, and tell me who you would lynch. Now back that reasoning and tell me what you would do on their flip, regardless of alignment. That's a serious claim.
You are so freaking scummy.

"Oh, I don't want to try to lynch somebody because I won't know what to do if they don't flip scum"

Well be a detective and figure it out, will ya? That's the ****ing game. Just because you can't do it doesn't mean we can't.

What's with the unprovoked claim on Rajam towards me? Did you see me highlight him in green before? I have a town-read on the slot and this wagon is worthless as far as I'm concerned. If you're going to make subtle hints to things like this, back it up instead of choking on it.
Subtle hints? I'm being pretty open and direct. There is one, count 'em, one slot open for a lynch at this moment. The closest push on another player this Day is Kantrip from you and we all know how much effort you put into that.

Basic logic.

Town pushes for a Rajam lynch

Soup says "lynching is dumb, let's no lynch"

Soup is protecting Rajam

You think that he's town, you need to find a better candidate and need to actually defend Rajam a bit better than "No Lynch because.... uh, we might accidentally lynch a townie."


Multi-posting is so mcuh cleaner.

No. It's not about magically catching mafia during the day, it's looking at this day, and moving it into the next one when nobody has an excuse anymore. This is when we get to the grind of things, this is when we can push things. The content produced from this day does not go away, much like Rajam. And even then, we can imply he dies. What's your next move?
No one has an excuse NOW, soup. "Oh, I don't know if I'm town" is not an excuse not to work for town. Someone says they don't know their alignment? Well as far as I'm concerned they're either playing for town or playing anti-town and I am totally down with lynching anyone who wants to play anti-town.

Our next move the following day IS TO FIND SOMEONE ELSE TO LYNCH. Question people, push people. Make an effort. The exact same thing we'd be doing tomorrow if we No Lynched today, except this time the numbers are a bit more manageable and we have something more to work with.

If you think that on D1 in any game town can lynch someone, have them flip town, and then have a PoE gameplan to catch all the scum you're off your rocker.


I don't think he should get lynched, today. Reasoning already recited multiple times. I'm not repeating myself.
You best find new reasoning because I haven't heard anything reasonable out of your mouth this Day phase.

Let's imply he flips scum. What are you gonna do? Town? What's your motive behind the lynch besides a gut read on him? You're playing at the same level at me only that you're trying to push this lynch and get away with it. You have all the answers, I have all the time.
Gut read? WHAT gut read?

Tako suggested we Lynch All Liars.

Tako lied about knowing the theme

Tako then tried to get people to believe he knew the theme and wouldn't tell us what the theme was, despite it being a pro-town move agreed upon openly

Tako, then backed into a corner, says "I planned this the whole day, the people who wanted to know the theme are going to be more scummy".

Take then disappears and posts absolutely nothing, replaces out, and Rajam comes in

Rajam's first post is something about La B, which we have only heard from Chuckie. Rajam has not read yet, so this screams hidden information to me. We have it mod confirmed that indies and mafia have information town doesn't. Rajam just coming in and casually mentioning it as his own idea raised a million red flags.

Rajam then has a guess discrepancy, as when he explained his guesses there was a missing guess given that his guess for toDay was gone and he found his alignment yesterday (true) and guessed jump ultimate (false) meaning there was a missing guess which he just happened to forget to tell us.



Actually, we have something to go off and discern why that player was shot. We get information out of a night phase as much as we do a day phase. I've said my peace with you and your argument hasn't really made me change my mind. I've gave you a couple of things to refute so I await your responses.

Until then.
aegjakerlgjaerg

your brain doesn't work

Seriously

D1 no lynch

N1 Sworddancer gets shot

D2

WHAT NOW.

Because you don't know **** about that slot and it gives you exactly 0 information.

You are right that Night can give us information, but it doesn't necessarily have to be illuminating. More importantly, we get that information whether we lynch today or not. The logical thing to do is to LYNCH someone and then get that information AND the Night information.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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There is no concrete stances from half of the players and not all players are going to commit and lynch him. I'm going to respond to your wall in full I just want you to know how trivial and stupid this is. It's your logic against mine.
 

Overswarm

is laughing at you
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Messages
21,181
Everyone, Rajam may or many not be scum. We can't know for sure. This is even more apparent this Day phase than in others. But to not lynch Rajam means he is going to be here tomorrow with the same stuff going for him and we're just back here. There's no reason to miss a lynch as town, not without the mathematical ability to have an extra Day phase because of it.

We have literally half the town in approval for the lynch. We need one more vote to lynch Rajam. We can't even get claims and there isn't going to be time to move this from one player to another; there's nothing left to do toDay.

This is a really easy decision. Lynch Rajam, get the flip, see what happens tomorrow after we've all hopefully uncovered all our roles. Guess carefully.

I don't care who hammers. I'd prefer it to be La B, but I doubt this will occur.

Just in case:

LaBateleur, can you vote for Rajam for us?
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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I might just hammer. Arguing this point against you gets us nowhere. I don't agree on it but I know it's going to be inevitable.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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I'll give Ryker the pleasure to do so if he insists.
 

#HBC | ѕoup

The world is not beautiful, therefore it is.
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I don't feel like getting into stupid wall arguments over something that is not going to be decided by it. Rajam is getting lynched today most likely.
 

#HBC | Joker

Space Marine
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Don't hammer.

Get a claim first. I'll hammer if I don't have one by midnight CST.
How can we get a claim from somebody who already said he hasn't opened his gift, and has no guesses?

Can't we just assume he's gonna say "I'm town guise, srsly!"

If he does give us a claim, that means he's still lying about stuff. There's no reason for him to continue lying to us like this if he's town. How would we be able to trust this slot?
 

Rajam

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 3, 2008
Messages
2,175
Location
Santiago, Chile
Knows alignment:
Raziek
Soup
JTB
Chuckie
Red Ryu
Kantrip
Rajam

Does not know:
Sworddancer.
PrivateJoker-Brown

Not confirmed:
Le Bateleur
Circus
J
Kary
July
Ryker
Overswarm
Why is there so many people that we don't know if they know their alignment? We should start to check this asap for re-reads during Night Phase:

@Le Bateleur
@Circus
@J
@Kary
@July
@Ryker
@Overswarm
@Ranmaru
@JDietz


Do you currently know your alignment? If yes at which specific moment did you learn it? (if it was toDay, please specify in which moment toDay)
 

Chuckie

Kataefi|vanderzant
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I'm not sure when deadline is, is Eastern Gmt-5? Is the deadline in about 15 hours as of now?

mmm just received more clarification of what tako did:

N0 he asked if he was Mafia. He got a no.

D1 his guesses were the ones I put before
This seems really off, knowing that an unsuccessful guess uses up your result, why would someone guess they're Mafia? Statistically, you're more likely to be wrong and who would not just think to guess town first?

well now. I guess you're happy with just outing everything then.
Why are we singled out for this idea Kary? I'm certain everyone except for Tako made it clear that if anyone knows the theme they should out it completely. In fact we were kinda hesitant to out our information initially, until we realized that we might not get any flips until the theme is outed.
[/quote]



Something I don't understand wrt Tako is the fact he lied about the knowing the real theme and had this weird *** plan incorporated with it. I don't understand the incentive to lie about it in the first place unless he was trying to scumhunt mechanically, as I feel he could have done it to garner reactions. I know Tako has done this before as both alignments, but he never followed up on it either way.

Why did he replace out, anyways?
Can you give an example of Tako doing something similarly in the past? I've never played with him myself.

HOoooooooooooly crap. You just opened some doors for me. If La Bat is someone, it'd be chuckie. Classic indie hunting rule: the person who seems to know more than they should, does.

Chuckie happened to guess the tarot card theme from the hanged man and a simultaneous desire to look up a translation of a player's name who had made one post? I can buy it as it's something I would do if I had the slightest inkling, but I didn't. Only Chuckie did.

Chuckie then asks what we should do about La Bat and if we should lynch him or not, carefully playing the fence there.

I think we all know what tarot card La Bat and Chuckie would share.

My only hangup here is that Chuckie didn't DO anything about it. It's just been sitting there. I'm not down to lynch Chuckie or La Bat on a hunch, but the two existing in a close relationship is something to take note of.
K, just to clarify, our vote was Le Bateleur since the beginning of the day AND we suggested that we lynch them toDay. This only changed when they actually started posting, and it was possible that information could be gained from it.

We'd still have little to no problem lynching this slot, as whether or not it is Nabe (still think it is), it's still an account created to be a clue. And I don't see the logic in Town being punished for figuring out a clue.

Secondly, our suspicion of the Le Bate slot came exclusively from pre game. As we mentioned, we saw their name in a pm, and given Nabe's history with HepAlien decided to investigate the idea. Completely new players don't get put into private games. It just doesn't happen. Considering this game revolves around working out the solution to the theme, I'm quite surprised no one else decided to look at something out fo the ordinary and suspicious as that. The hanged man in the OP was simply another clue which ended up reinforcing our original thoughts.

Anyway, I just skimmed the rest of the OS/Soup walls. I'm assuming it's mostly semantics. Might read it after breakfast, however I still have exams I'm studying for atm.

Our vote will stay on Rajam.
 

Rajam

Smash Champion
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2,175
Location
Santiago, Chile
Just a quick-thought about what OS said in his 153 ~ 154 regarding scum:

If scum started the game with more info (and Nabe in fact confirmed this), for example, already knowing they're scum, then they probably waited a little this D1 to see what the other people's guesses were, to learn about the nature of town guesses. Because of this, I'd say that people who came immediatly into the thread making his guesses public aren't scum. I can't remember specific names now (I'd have to check), but is something important to take into account if it becomes effective that scum already knew they're scum by N0.
 

Rajam

Smash Champion
Joined
Oct 3, 2008
Messages
2,175
Location
Santiago, Chile
But then again there's a chance that you guys might not catch on so


What is the purpose for solving the theme as a group for town? We benifit by understanding all past lynches and future lynches. But on day 1, solving the theme gives no immediate benifit other than person PR benifits.

But what about mafia? Understand that I believe strongly of what OS has said about rule 13 from the beginning. They will have no private communication in the beggining of the game. Which means that they have to solve their present in order to gain these basic powers. In general I would like to prevent mafia from gaining their private communication as long as possible, but eventually town will have to solve the theme.

So like I was saying, Pros/Cons of revealing the theme day 1:

Pro - Town gets closer to gaining full powers
All FUTURE lynches would be revealed when flipped.
Con - Mafia gets closer to gaining full powers
Mafia gets closer to gaining REGULAR powers.

Why would we not wait until day 2 to understand theme? The benifit that mafia gain by communication/identification far outweigh the benifit of getting closer to having full town powers, especially since our guesses are so limited on day 1.

Now considering that mafia would be thirsty for information right off the bat I tried to prevent the flow of hints/theme clues to everyone as much as possible, while watching for people baiting conversation about the theme. Right off the Bat Soup/Raz comes to mind. Then I wanted to see if I could tell who desperately wanted the theme to be revealed, so I announced knowing the theme knowing that this would gather a lot of mafia attention while having low odds of even having a doc to protect me (OS/Raz comes to mind). Conversely if I was mafia I would have never made this play, I would have simply laid back and waited for opportunities to drop hints.

The reason why I vote OS over Raz is because I believe he really understand all of this, but sees an opportunity to still push for theme while somewhat identifying his possible teamates. Other people I can't tell if they didn't realize how handicapped mafia is atm.

TLDR: Pretty much don't discuss the theme until day 2.
Why are you assuming mafia do not have a night kill? How do you know this?

In Ryker's game they started with a night kill and one already knew his partners.



Why are you assuming mafia don't have a night kill?



Unless you believe that they have a night kill and you're just worried about them having a quick topic. If that is the case I'm confused because if I was scum I would HAPPILY remove my quick topic for the ability to have all lynches flip as ???? for as long as possible.
Wait OS in which part did you get that tako was implying a knowledge that mafia don't have a NKill? I see nothing like that from what tako posted
 
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