Twin Christmas Parties 3+4 Mafia {The Matryoshka Scandal.} ~ Over! Who had the merriest Christmas? Who got lumps of coal?

[Rajam]

I'm most likely holding my guess off til near the end of the day.

I'm guessing you knew your alignment by this point?

Vote: Ranmaru

I hate One Piece!

Why did you vote on a player which you had no confirmation at this point if he knew or not his own alignment?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

From memory:

Sworddancer. : 0 guesses remaining. 0 layers opened. (does not know alignment.)
JDietz: 0 guesses remaining. Knows True Theme. All layers opened(?)
Rajam: 0 guesses remaining. 1 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
Ranmaru: 1 guesses remaining. 0 layers opened.
Chuckie: 0 guesses reamning. 3 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
Le Bateleur: ? guesses remaning. ? layers opened.
Red Ryu: 0 guesses remaining. Knows True Theme. All layers opened(?)(knew alignment.)
Kantrip: ? guesses remaining. 3 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
JTB: 0 guesses remaining. 3 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
Raziek: 0 guesses remaining. 3 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
PrivateJoker-Brown: 0 guesses remaining. 0 layers opened.

Ryker, Circus, J, Overswarm, Kary, July.

Vote: No Lynch

Not enough time to get everyone to guess correctly but I would believe with the information outed, everyone should know their real role by tomorrow.

 

[Rajam]

Could I get a quick check on everyone and what layer they are currently on, along with their guesses?

1.- Am I Town?
Answer: Yes

2.- Is the theme of this game Jump Manga?
Answer: No. Day 1 guess spent.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Knows alignment:
Raziek
Soup
JTB
Chuckie
Red Ryu
Kantrip
Rajam

Does not know:
Sworddancer.
PrivateJoker-Brown

Not confirmed:
Le Bateleur
Circus
J
Kary
July
Ryker
Overswarm

 

[Rajam]

From memory:

Sworddancer. : 0 guesses remaining. 0 layers opened. (does not know alignment.)
JDietz: 0 guesses remaining. Knows True Theme. All layers opened(?)
Rajam: 0 guesses remaining. 1 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
Ranmaru: 1 guesses remaining. 0 layers opened.
Chuckie: 0 guesses reamning. 3 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
Le Bateleur: ? guesses remaning. ? layers opened.
Red Ryu: 0 guesses remaining. Knows True Theme. All layers opened(?)(knew alignment.)
Kantrip: ? guesses remaining. 3 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
JTB: 0 guesses remaining. 3 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
Raziek: 0 guesses remaining. 3 layers opened. (knows alignment.)
PrivateJoker-Brown: 0 guesses remaining. 0 layers opened.

Ryker, Circus, J, Overswarm, Kary, July.

Vote: No Lynch

Not enough time to get everyone to guess correctly but I would believe with the information outed, everyone should know their real role by tomorrow.

? Does this vote mean you don't have any scum reads among the people who know their alignment?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Not sufficient enough to where I would push it today, but something to consider is a possibility of scum possibly knowing each other in the confirmations we have. I would say based on this day that I would feel that isn't the case.

 

[Raziek]

I'm cool with a No Lynch toDay as well.

You're correct on my info. 3 layers solved, no guess at the moment.

 

[Rajam]

Knows alignment:
Raziek
Soup
JTB
Chuckie
Red Ryu
Kantrip
Rajam

Does not know:
Sworddancer.
PrivateJoker-Brown

Not confirmed:
Le Bateleur
Circus
J
Kary
July
Ryker
Overswarm

What about Ranmaru and Jdietz? I'd like to have all the info regarding this to possibly avoid asking pointless questions as I catch up

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

How do you feel you will handle this game coming into D2? Do you feel that there is mafia in the players who have confirmed? What are your reads on everyone right now? Consider that a question to everyone and I would expect players that do have their alignment to have no issue answering them. I'm not looking for connections at this point, because I'm still scumhunting based on what we do have.

Kantrip has been giving me weird *** vibes all day especially.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

What about Ranmaru and Jdietz? I'd like to have all the info regarding this to possibly avoid asking pointless questions as I catch up

Unsure. Ran still has his guess. JDietz apparently guessed the theme correctly. That's all that really matters at this point as knowing alignments and the alike is only important, the fodder behind what is in the presents is only important if you want to get your real role. I'm assuming everyone should have it as stated before.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Raziek
Soup
JTB
Chuckie
Red Ryu
Kantrip
Rajam

FYI. Also if JD does have his alignment I'm leaning town on him. Ranmaru too.

 

[Kantrip]

1.- Am I Town?
Answer: Yes

2.- Is the theme of this game Jump Manga?
Answer: No. Day 1 guess spent.

What did you use your N0 guess on after your Am I Town guess was correct?

 

[Kantrip]

Oh soup, will ever there come a day where you don't scumread me? I wonder, I wonder.

When did that scumread arise and from what?

Guessing at my true character now.

 

[Rajam]

Not sufficient enough to where I would push it today, but something to consider is a possibility of scum possibly knowing each other in the confirmations we have. I would say based on this day that I would feel that isn't the case.

Can you explain / detail this a bit more? Is this based on guesses' claims, or is there something else? Seems to me a bold statement to leave it just there without further inspection

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I want to like Raziek but something is holding me back for the moment. I don't feel it's a slot i'd kill at all right now and that's the same feeling I get from Chuckie too. I don't believe anyone deserves to get lynched today based on my own reasoning and the logic backed behind it.

 

[Rajam]

How do you feel you will handle this game coming into D2? Do you feel that there is mafia in the players who have confirmed? What are your reads on everyone right now? Consider that a question to everyone and I would expect players that do have their alignment to have no issue answering them. I'm not looking for connections at this point, because I'm still scumhunting based on what we do have.

Kantrip has been giving me weird *** vibes all day especially.

Not really sure what I expect for Day 2. Regarding reads, let me catch up firt, meanwhile I'll leave this pending

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Can you explain / detail this a bit more? Is this based on guesses' claims, or is there something else? Seems to me a bold statement to leave it just there without further inspection

Either the mafia are doing a wonderful job right now not making themselves transparent as a team, or there isn't enough to go off because of what the day is centered around. I'm reading players on this fact and not the team aspect. I believe that there can be scum in what we have but I am not confident enough on it and also I am not willing based on how much we do or do not have. Does my reasoning make sense to you?

Kantrip, your attitude is not necessary, and I'm scratching my head trying to wonder why you lash at me so suddenly.

 

[Rajam]

What did you use your N0 guess on after your Am I Town guess was correct?

uh? tako used it on the second question quoted (Is the theme Jump Mafia?). Question was used during N0 apparently instead of during D1; the important thing is that my D1 guess is currently spent anyways.

 

[Kantrip]

I'm not lashing soup. No attitude, seriously. You're getting the wrong impression my friend.

My question is legitimate though: Where does your scumread on my slot come from and when did it start?

@Rajam: But you don't know what the D1 guess was used on?

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Gut. No substantiation on it. I got a feel about you. It does stem from your attitude if you care about that instance but I'm going to keep it disclosed as I'm not lynching it and I'm taking a backseat.

 

[Kantrip]

I don't like that you're putting forth a series of gut reads with no substantiation, in all honesty. I feel like you always seem to have a feel about me. I saw it in LoL UPick among other games. When you're town you might start trying to armchair critic, but when you're scum you'll just call me scummy (sometimes with some attempts at armchair critic thrown in). Considering you have no reason above gut (stemming from "my attitude" which you've already been evidently misinterpreting) I can't say I like your sole scum read one bit.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

I only armchair when I'm trying to get a point across. Right now it's clear as day to me.

 

[Overswarm]

I haven't really had time to play this game properly and admittedly spent way too much time reading up on different animes trying to figure out the theme. I hate most animes so thanks for that Nabe.

I should have plenty of time tomorrow to post, but a few things:

1) I disagree strongly with a No Lynch. No Lynching results in a 0% success rate for town. Lynching gives us the potential at hitting mafia or independent. Like it or not, Town will die throughout this game via lynch and night kills. Us lynching one on D1 is not helpful for town, but it isn't a guaranteed lynch of a townie even if we don't have concrete information. To not lynch someone means that we miss a chance to lynch scum that we do not get back.

There are times when No Lynch is acceptable, but they are always mathematical. We don't know the ratio of town to scum, how many people will die during the night, or any of the other variables so we cannot make any progress on a No Lynch. While it might feel like progress to start the Day anew with everyone knowing their full role, I have to point out that this is how Day One normally starts, and in this case it will be Day Two with at least one townie dead.

Someone not knowing their alignment doesn't change that and, more importantly, we have no way of knowing who doesn't know their alignment for real toDay. It's very easy to lie about that and say "already used my guess". I don't suggest random lynching, but lynching a role that has been dodgy, inactive, absent, illogical, or unhelpful in some other way is a far superior way to go. It's always been that way and this game is no different.

2) I am skeptical of Rajam's statements so far. Not overly so, but I'd like more info. One thing that makes my hair stand on edge is that Rajam comes in talking about La B like he is another hep alien as if it hasn't been mentioned. While this is possible I find 1/18 mentioning this in Rajam's pregame and then the replacement immediately thinking the same thing with their first post highly unlikely as a legitimate post. It seems to me that Rajam either did read and presented it as his own statement, or had unique information that he was unaware we had discussed and was now bringing it to the table. Like I said before, unique information comes to mafia and independents so I am watching closely for information leaks. If Rajam flipped something non-town, I'd look closely at Chuckie.

I am also curious about Rajam's guesses. I'm not inclined to ask people what they guess or what layer they are on, but I am intrigued by what Rajam claims Tako guessed. He guessed he was town on 0, and got "true". He guessed that the theme was Jump Mafia on 0 or 1 and got false. His guess is spent for D1, so I would assume 1. This leaves a big gaping hole in that he should have had another guess on 0. Maybe I missed it.



Soup, I'm very interested in your slot as you have seemingly taken charge in absence of anyone else at the end of the day. In this you have cast suspicion on Chuckie and Raziek in a lighter manner, more seriously (but still just a gut read) on Kantrip yet are pushing for a No Lynch.

I am curious about a lot of variables in that, but here's my big question to you at the moment:

If you have a gut read on Kantrip scum and this is something worth mentioning to town, why would you go for a No Lynch instead of just stating outright that you would prefer Kantrip lynched over anyone else?

I am curious as to how this would help town or fit into your own mindset at this stage of the game.

 

[Kantrip]

I like what Overswarm had to say wrt Rajam and didn't even think about the indies and scum getting more information than town thing possibly relating to Le Bateleur. The gap with his guesses is possibly a scum slip.

N0: Am I town?

Nabe: You ponder your question yada yada yada no you are not you have used your guess.

D1: Am I mafia?

Nabe: Yay you did it! Here's some info on the game and hey look Le Bateleur isn't what he seems to be.

tako in thread: Guys I think I know what the theme is.

D1: "Is the theme of this game Jump Manga?"

Nabe: You're silly, no.

In short, I've got my eye heavily directed towards Rajam and want to know why he didn't know what tako's D1 guess was.

 

[#HBC | Red Ryu]

I'm guessing you knew your alignment by this point?



Why did you vote on a player which you had no confirmation at this point if he knew or not his own alignment?

1. I knew it by N0.

2. A joke prod that I hate One Piece, that is all.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

I also don't like that Tako was claiming to be operating under the assumption that by him not revealing the theme, scum would never figure it out. Like, scum have all the information you have, + more info. You can't stop them, you're just being anti-town. Luckily there were others around to put the pieces together.

You also can't just announce that you have this information, then use the excuse "Umm, because the mafia guys!" to withold it. Now Rajam says he didn't know the theme at all? Wasn't Tako the one who proposed the Lynch All Liars policy? I highly doubt he made that proposal, then proceeded to lie his *** off immediately, for no good reason.

Rajam is more than a little fishy... I'm comfortable leaving my vote. Screw the No Lynch.

 

[Kantrip]

It's too bad you don't know your alignment, Joker. I wanted to call you town but then I couldn't.

Vote: Rajam

 

[#HBC | Joker]

Yea I know right? I'm just assuming I'm town for now, cuz I don't wanna sit around not playing just because I have no guesses (stupid dice). Fingers crossed Out of 18 players, the odds I'm town are certainly better than assuming I'm scum for toDay. I rolled the dice once, may as well keep rolling 'em (metaphorically)

 

[ranmaru]

Why did you vote on a player which you had no confirmation at this point if he knew or not his own alignment?

Rajam, why did you ask this question?

 

[ranmaru]

Also Soup, I guessed my alignment after guessing "Tarot Card' unspecifically. I then proceeded to guess that my 3rd layer contained a tarot card, and got that right. I then guessed eagerly, that my 4th layer contained a voice actor. I was told my present was too small to contain a voice actor, and I lost my guess for the day.

 

[#HBC | Joker]

That's because there is no "man who does voices" inside your box. It's probably just his name in there

 

[#HBC | Kary]

hi guys

I want to keep it simple with a lynch all liars policy.

This would rule out a few mis-directions on the first day that town could pull. I'd rather not give out the example I have in mind, please use your imagination.

wants to lynch all liars
claims to know the theme
> gambit/lying?

Okay now you're really going to have to explain yourself. Why the hell won't you talk to me if you don't want people not knowing their alignment?

scum

So I rolled it, got a 6, and lost my guess for D1. So I dunno jack right now. Guess we'll see what happens. I'm still keeping up with the game, but I can't imagine I'm the only one who doesn't know their alignment, and that makes for pretty lousy scum hunting.

town

Tako, what is the theme?

town

We probably aren't on the same side are we OS. I don't believe after understanding that mafia may not have communication/identification day 1 you would push me this hard as town. Do you want to play a game of attrition when I flip?Vote: OS

hmm someone tell me whether this reads as a town gambit or as scum, i don't know tako

Please ISO my posts if you guys don't believe I'm being genuine, I had this plan from day 0.

Btw guys, I'll just like to remind you all that the mafia learning of their buddies from layer 1 is just an assumption. Don't treat it as a fact.

Wish people would stop putting out WIFOM like this.

On an interesting and related note, mafia may be unable to use their night kills until they've unlocked some portion of their role, and so not eplxaining the theme could be construed as pro-town. This is moot now as I understand the theme has come out, but might be interesting when you ask players their motivations for wanting to unlock everything (though I can see a few players just wanting to open the present as fast as possible)

Well, we could lynch Tako, for one. Unless you consider that a "policy lynch". He's being pretty anti-town, and he's doing it with knowledge of his alignment.

On that note Vote: Tako

town

Ok, so now I'm thinking.

Either we:

Policy lynch, or we No lynch.

town

except I can kinda believe that some people might actually not know their alignments. So I guess I'm going to have to come back toMorrow and do this again.

Wii have waited long enough! Everyone who still has their guess for the day should go ahead and guess Tarot Cards. You'll unlock your third layer .

well now. I guess you're happy with just outing everything then.

Vote: No Lynch

town

kinda agreed with this up until the theme came out

"Every-body is voting allready! So bloodthirsty... ^__^;;" I try to talk sense into every-one. "You should get to know people before you sentence them to DEATH!! We need to investigate this crime!"

This reads as faked to me. I mean seriously who types 'Every-body' for starters. Apologies if you are a real person.

These are suspicious faces! I don't judge a book by it's cover but I will look out under my bed for Circus' avy

what do you make of me, then?

I agree with Soup in the sense that the best way to go toDay is a no lynch. The only thing to really discuss is mechanics toDay as we don't even know if the scum team had gotten through the first layer prior to Chuckie telling everyone how to get to the third layer.

still think this?

Why is every-one talking about me being Nabe?! ^__^;; You guys do realize Chuckie was saying that in character?? If you're not OOC you should use quotes...

why do I think that you're Chuckie, specifically, Kata? Are there any other hydras in this game? Has anyone seen Chuckie/Vanz for a while? Hmm mm hmmm

There's two paths.

if LeBat is someone else on this playerlist, who is it?

I am curious as to how this would help town or fit into your own mindset at this stage of the game.

did I say you were town? I think you're town.

Ok so I'm going to send Nabe a guess, and with any luck i'll be back within a couple days (still V/LA)

just going to throw out a prospective scumlist because i'm not sure how seriously I can read things just yet: Chuckie/ditzy/JTB, one of July/J, Rajam

pretty confident in my townreads but have to check that isn't just legitimately them not knowing their alignments.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

Kary, your play has been a bit more around the swiss style as of late, but in taco you were a lot more preserved about things. Mind telling me the change in mindset?

 

[Rajam]

mmm just received more clarification of what tako did:

N0 he asked if he was Mafia. He got a no.

D1 his guesses were the ones I put before

 

[#HBC | Kary]

i'm not sure I totally follow you, Soup. I lean towards Swiss-style when I need to do a catchup, in terms of lots of quotes/not a huge amount from me. Taco had half as many players and made it much easier to push things/have a grasp on the game. Right now I just have a couple enquiries to push and thats it. for the most part I have a lot of nullreads :/

 

[Rajam]

Rajam, why did you ask this question?

idk I just want to know why someone would put a vote on a player that maybe doesn't even know his alignment (and hence any reaction gotten would be... useless?) Probably I'm of the idea that players should find in fist place which other players know at least their alignment, and then proceed to scumhunt, so that's why I'm asking that

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

i'm not sure I totally follow you, Soup. I lean towards Swiss-style when I need to do a catchup, in terms of lots of quotes/not a huge amount from me. Taco had half as many players and made it much easier to push things/have a grasp on the game. Right now I just have a couple enquiries to push and thats it. for the most part I have a lot of nullreads :/

I just felt like you were more willing to keep your mouth closed about things and pursue what interested here, but here you've kicked into overdrive and haven't really substantiated on your logic with some certain things. Is this just because of your catchup style? It always bothers me.

 

[#HBC | Kary]

I just felt like you were more willing to keep your mouth closed about things and pursue what interested here, but here you've kicked into overdrive and haven't really substantiated on your logic with some certain things. Is this just because of your catchup style? It always bothers me.

I'm rushed, and there's nothing that screams out at me as particularly interesting. Some players may not even know their alignments, ya know?

Though by saying it always bothers you, is kinda admitting it's not actually a tell one way or the other. If you want me to say backup why i'm townreading you, i'm going to have to go back and ISO you and figure out what gave me the gutread. That's just how I always play, my priority is getting good reads > being able to explain them

aaand i'm out of internet. we should probably no lynch today, idk.

Vote: Rajam

will leave the decision up to someone who's likely to be around. Just make sure that's not OS

 

[ranmaru]

Oh hey Kary is in this game. SUP BRO. Let's bro it up.

Who did you replace.

 

[#HBC | ѕoup]

He didn't replace anyone, he's an original slot of his own.