I'm still a little hungover so I'm going to try and make this as pleasant as possible, but apologies if it reads like garbage.
@Kary: right now I'm looking at Gangsta as my 1st scum pick. 2nd is incredibly difficult and ideally I'd like to think that there's only 1 scum left. But if I had to pick right now I'd say Pjb (with WATT as a distant 3rd pick if it's an indy we're hunting but really this doesn't seem likely).
I agree with the sentiment that these hidden flips and kills really don't make sense considering the general information that is present to town. This makes me think that Ryu's given us some "Unique and janky" scum team like 3 Mafia + 1 Traitor, 2 sets of 2 Mafia groups, or even 4 Mafia, as opposed to standard 3 Mafia 1 indy. It would explain why there has only ever been 1 kill outside of WATT's shot.
I still don't really see Nabe's play as indy (no way he could of survived more than a day with his gambit). And all signs points to the fact that our tracker was
killed as opposed to roleblocked, heavily suggests that Nabe
was the Mafia Roleblocker (who iirc blocked WATT N1) and his scum mate is choosing to hide his flip, to limit info to town or something.
This would make sense if there is a 2 man adult swim team BW/Rake and a 2 man team of some other cartoon program, i.e. Nabe Roleblocker/Janitor Dude.
But it's possible that it's something like 3 Mafia + 1 Traitor Janitor Dude. I haven't really thought this completely through, but I think the flavour of the town faction (Toonami) and scum faction (Adult Swim) could suggest a 3rd scum team of two. BUT, considering that a faction with a Roleblocker and Janitor + assumedly no Night Kill sounds incredibly weak, maybe the 3 mafia + Traitor or heck a broken 4 man team is what we're facing.
Additionally, when you consider that there's likely a scum role that is CHOOSING to not reveal Nabe's flip, coupled with Nabe's ambiguous "Happy Gaming," it looks like Nabe
might of known that his flip would be hidden. Maybe.
However, Vinyl's Town flip incriminated Nabe, which suggests that him and his scum buddy didn't completely think through their gambit... Or I'm just plain wrong with this speculation.
^ If this is as incoherent as it sounds in my head I apologise (but bare with me), I'm going somewhere
The lack of a Nabe flip makes me worry because I can't make reads on others based off his alignment.
This is pretty worrisome to me because Inferno is bringing up Nabe's hidden flip as reason for not being able to read other players, when:
1. We established yesterDay that he almost
has to be scum of some form, due to assumed lying and inconsistent claim with Vinyl's flip, and the unlikelyhood of Pjb being bulletproof.
2. Nabe wasn't exactly a sea of information himself... even assuming he's scum, he never made strong connections with any slot. So I fail to see why his flip not being revealed is such a bummer.
Without going into specifics I think it's fair to say that Gangsta/Inferno have felt incredibly "out of touch," not just in this instance, but for the ENTIRE game.
And this is the general vibe I get from whoever is choosing to control the night actions like this.
We were all scratching our heads over why on earth a indy whatchamacallit would hide Nabe's flip when Vinyl's town flip contradicted his claim... and better still why they would continue to hide it and give us Rake's flip, despite us being somewhat unsure between Rake/WATT at the time, AND that we'd all concluded Nabe=Scum. AND that by doing so they essentially revealed that it is a scum power causing this and NOT just a mechanic...
The simplest explanation is that Nabe was the Mafia Roleblocker, and his buddy is hiding his flip. It explains why Rajam was killed instead of Roleblocked, and why they didn't care about hiding Rake's flip.
But I believe that whatever scum we're dealing with is making bad decisions. They're probably not indy because than I don't understand why they'd decide to start shooting on N3 of all times. But if it is an indy, you can replace my explanation of "mafia buddy hides Nabe's flip" with "RANDOM INDY DECISION MAKING." And either way, this is why I'm inclined to believe GangstaInferno is the scum we're looking for. If it's not him, then I'd say Pjb purely because I'm pigeon holeing him as a lesser experienced player compared to Soup/Kary, who might make some weird NA choices as scum with Nabe or as an indy (but heck I still don't think he's scum with BW/Rake).
I could vote Gangsta right now, but I think we should at least wait to hear from WATT about his handy dandy new ability. Also I think the double kill suggests that even if WATT is indy, there is at least another mafiosi out there with a kill. And if Ryu put 5 scum in a 14 man game I'll probably cry.
#hungover
/sorryifthisdoesn'tmakesensebutkaryI'mstealingyourbackslashes
