Hey guys, I've decided to make my old main, Toon Link, my secondary character now(Fox is primary). I just wanted to know how the Toon vs Lucas matchup is because Lucas is a character I seem to struggle with as Fox. Thanks!
I haven't fought a tourney-hardened Lucas before, but since no one has replied I want to at least describe what I can for you.
Both of these characters are good at their neutral game for different reasons. Lucas has a long ranged and quick projectile that moves him back, along with great aerials for offensive approach, a Down-B to mindgame and a Zair for poking, zoning and approaching. Toon Link has his projectiles mostly for stage control, so controlling where his opponent is going to be, limiting options and creating pressure for them. However, since Toon Link's projectiles have more coverage then Lucas's, he wins the spacing game. But Lucas definitely wins the close-quarters combat, with his grab game and combo's, along with his better frame data making him a better offensive fighter.Though Toon Link is on the lighter side, so his combo's will work for only so long.
Toon Link's finishers are tricky to land since the safest ones rely on projectiles like bomb and boomerang to connect for a F-air, Up-air, sometimes Up-Smash to kill at higher percents. But since landing projectiles isn't hard, especially with great projectile awareness, killing isn't a chore here. Along with his B-throw, the 3rd strongest in the game if I'm not mistaken, he has options. Lucas also has excellent throws, with his Up-throw killing even sooner then Toon Link's on platforms, and the rest having great scaling. Up-air is also a good finisher for Lucas if I'm not mistaken, but attacking Toon Link from below when he has a bomb in hand is difficult to say the least.
Gimping Toon Link is often called an easy task, but I personally almost never get edge-guarded (Except by Shiek, thanks needles!). Hookshot is an extremely important tool to use when recovering. You can go from 3 body-lengths away from the ledge to above your opponent in an instant if you grapple and jump right away, or mix-up and roll, attack at ledge, etc. Lucas has some good ledge-guarding thanks to the large coverage F-air and D-air provide, but if Toon Link is patient and aware, he can maximize the length of his hookshot to avoid any and all options. Lucas, on the other hand, might be fairly easy to bother, since his optimal angle to recover at is where our bombs and boomerang can travel. Unlike Ness, however, Lucas's projectile can travel undisturbed, even if a projectile connects, due to its multi-hitting nature. And if Lucas is well-aware of his own Z-air, he can also stall similar to Toon Link, though his Z-air tether is shorter, and Toon Link can throw bombs down to intercept. With enough mix-up and speed, he can try to be safe, but it's easier for Toon Link to edgeguard Lucas then vice-versa basically.
Overall, from an analysis-only standpoint, it seems very even. Both characters each have their own good tools and strengths to use to win the match. I can imagine Lucas can take out Fox pretty well because of his fast-falling nature and ease to gimp, so I hope Toon Link can serve you better. I can see it being positive for Toon Link, but again I'm not a Toon Link vs Lucas master, so take everything I've said with a grain of salt. I just didn't want to leave you hanging either. Let me know what you think. Apologies for the essay though!