About a month ago, I mentioned how its possible we might learn Captain Toad's fate in Ultimate around the time the ports for the Switch and 3DS release. We are only four days away from those ports being released. If Captain Toad has a role that is only as an Assist Trophy or has a stage based off of his game, then we will probably see something on Friday. However, if it is something much more profound. say a character unveil, we would hear our first rumblings about it a day or two in advance.
That is to say, that if Captain Toad is going to be confirmed this week, we would be given the head's up about a Nintendo Direct or character trailer on Wednesday at the latest (though it might be possible for Thursday, however, I cannot merely see it being done only a day in advance).
While its still possible for Captain Toad to be confirmed as a playable character after this week, if they did have him as a playable character, I do not see why they would hold off on confirming him when confirming him as a playable character would likely drive a lot of interest into the ports. However, him missing this week (and no Captain Toad content being shown at all this week in general), does not confirm or de-confirm him.
It is important to point out that the Smash Blog has not yet shown any new information that was not known about since Ultimate's unveil on June 12. On that note, we could get Peach as the character update on Friday, and as part of the "today's history lesson" on the Japanese site, Sakurai makes mention of the Captain Toad ports being released that day. I can easily see Sakurai making mention of the changes made to Toad as part of Peach's moveset for when Peach's update happens. If this happens, it does not de-confirm Captain Toad, but at the same time it does not look good at all.
If a character unveil is going to happen, there will have to be some sort of announcement either later today, on Tuesday, or on Wedneday at the latest. Thursday is technically possible, but I doubt we will only be given a single day's notice.
Borrowing a track from the title of another Captain, this is your big chance Captain Toad. Climb up, and get the last chance!
Hopefully, the Captain gets confirmed this week, and another long awaited Nintendo All-Star finally gets their due with Ultimate.