To be fair, I'm pretty sure we'll get something of him. I'd rather it NOT be an AT, as Assist Trophies rarely get promoted, and we're mostly here because we want a playable Toad character be it regular or Captain. A stage would be pretty fun however.
Kind of been a bit of a hard life being a Toad fan in terms of Smash speculation:
Smash 64
"This game is awesome. It's got 4 of the Mario Kart crew in it! Maybe one day Toad will join alongside Peach, Bowser and Wario..."
Melee:
"Okay, so now they got Bowser and Peach in, that's all the major Mario characters right outside Toad and Wario? And hey, look, they got a Toad running in the background! They made a unique model for him...oh wait, it's an animated Peach counter...well okay, at least it proves it can be done!
I even heard Toad's a secret character. Some rumour going around about the credits...hope this means good things"
Brawl:
"Okay, well, we all knew Wario would probably also outprioritise Toad due to having his own game series. That's...I guess that's fair? And hey; Toad's done well on that poll! Toad is literally the next biggest character in the Mario series left now...oh, I guess Bowser Jr is being heavily promoted though...oh no..."
Sm4sh:
"...Toad's one of the first deconfirmed characters, and just as he finally started getting playable roles in the main series again. ROSALINA GOT IN OVER HIM?!? But she's the secret character from 3D World, and he's a default one...this is bull..."
Sm4sh DLC period:
"...okay so our boy is a counter, and Bowser Jr is now in alongside Rosalina and...fricking Dr. Mario returning...but hey everyone from the actual Nintendo newcomers were somewhat recent characters, and the detractors have now shut up since Captain Toad has given Toad both an identity, his own game, and a role. The game's even sold really well considering it's been on the worst selling console to date! And look, Toad may have done well in the ballot since the Miis have been given an outfit to fight in...things are looking good for the next game!""
Ultimate period:
"Okay guys this is it; Captain Toad Treasure Tracker is recent, pretty successful game of which he is the protagonist, he's a recognisable face, it's fair to believe he did decently on the poll due to how famous Toad is in general, he got a Mii outfit(Hell if K. Rool and Geno fans can count it, why not?) and there's literally no bigger Mario character in his way at this point. He's got to have a good shot...."
Sakurai: "The focus of this game is veterans. Also Daisy is in, and you shouldn't expect too many newcomers this time round. But hey; Toad no longer acts like he's a hostage. ENJOY."
"...****."
So now Captain Toad holds the only chance we have to get in and despite his impressive resume that would have gotten him in the door for literally any other Smash game before(being recent and a protagonist of a successful spinoff), we're now dealing with limited newcomers, Sakurai's been stated on record that he wants Geno as a playable character and if this is his last game, he's likely to promote Geno above Captain Toad, and as for Mario spinoff characters; WarioWare's Ashley looks like she's also a big frontrunner.
At least Toad's being treated with a modicum of respect after nearly 17 years in Peach's moveset. And I guess there's always the possibility of the Mii outfit returning. I SUPPOSE we shouldn't grumble, but still none of these are what we've desired for nearly 20 years.
Toad fans sound as defeated as Ridley fans did up until the Vergeben leak. Keep in mind that Sakurai outright said Ridley was too big in November 2014, only to end up changing his mind only a year later (possibly when he submitted his first game design plan for Ultimate in December 2015). There were not too many "new" characters for him to put in during this gap of time (Inklings, a Pokemon from Sun/Moon, possibly Elma, and maybe Captain Toad). However, this was likely a major factor for why Sakurai decided to bring back everyone, and why Sakurai decided to re-evaluate his long running stance on Ridley.
I really feel for you guys. You are among the longest running communities in Smash Bros., and unlike K. Rool who merely had to wait behind Diddy Kong, it seems there is a neverending line of characters that somehow manage to bump ahead of Toad (Rosalina, Bowser Jr., and now it seems like Geno and Waluigi).
Like Ridley, Toad is a character whose resume was strong enough make it in for Brawl, and if not Brawl due to how many other characters had to make it in, certainly so for Smash 4, of which during the interim years found him having a playable role in the mainline series again after 20 years (New Super Mario Bros. Wii, New Super Mario Bros. U, New Super Luigi U, and Super Mario 3D World). Toad is a mainline major character in Nintendo's single most popular and well known franchise, and has been a major character for over 30 years now.
This is a desperate battle that few other characters who have gotten into Smash Bros. (or returned to it) have ever seen, especially so for a character with the credentials like Toad.
Toad has already been ruled out for this game (as mentioned earlier, its nice to see that Toad is actually being shown as a combatant this time), however, Captain Toad's status is still unknown. Captain Toad was THE sleeper hit of the Wii U, and its not just getting a port on the Switch like many other Wii U games, but also the aging (its over seven years old now) 3DS. Nintendo obviously wants people to play that game (and so do I, it was one of the few games that made me wish I had a Wii U).
Captain Toad's main handicap I feel is his inability to jump as one of his core points in his game. I feel such a bullet point, is enough to make Sakurai rule him out right off the bat. However, Sakurai has said this in his recent Famitsu column, "Smash is Special"
"It takes a lot of ingenuity to come up with a way to implement seemingly impossible characters into the game"
I do not think Sakurai was talking about Captain Toad in particular, but Sakurai seems to relish implementing characters people seem to think would not work or people have overlooked. Sakurai finding a way to make a character with the inability to jump work, would be just another example of Ultimate making the impossible possible (bringing back all veterans ever and finally making Ridley playable would be two other examples).
I would be deceiving all of you if I did not say that I am personally not optimistic about Captain Toad's prospects. I am not even 50/50 on him happening. However, try to keep fighting. Its not over this round until the Captain goes down. We still have another week until the ports drop, so hopefully we will have our answer in a week or less time (for better or worse).
Whether it be a stage, an Assist Trophy, or hopefully a playable character, let's hope we finally learn of what kind of place Captain Toad and its content have in Ultimate. Toad fans, victory or defeat, let us keep moving. The fight is not over for this battle (Ultimate), until the Captain falls.
Toad for Smash Bros.