Tier List Speculation

[Frost | Odds]

A

inb4 the salty marth mains.

Also, I think Bowser slightly beats Fox, but only on WarioWare specifically and maaaaaaaaaaaybe FoD. Otherwise he gets bopped.

 

[Hinichii.ez.™]

Yeah, I don't think fox loses a single matchup lol. The closest potential* would be g&watch, but fox neutral is so good that the matchup winds up being like 70:30 or 60:40 in fox's favor. Best counters to fox imo are Marth, Roy, ike(?), m2, and (most of all) fox.


*If game and watch touches fox, fox is basically dead. It's kinda like marth on FD, but he doesn't need to be on FD.

The closest would not be friggin G&W
Bruh
strong bad posted not to long ago about all those nerfs he took
aint no way
No @ Frost | Odds that happens when that fox player is trash. at that point you could beat him anywhere

 

[Foo]

The closest would not be friggin G&W
Bruh
strong bad posted not to long ago about all those nerfs he took
aint no way
No @ Frost | Odds that happens when that fox player is trash. at that point you could beat him anywhere

did you actually read my post?

 

[Frost | Odds]

Not necessarily. The reason for WW specifically is the perfect platform configuration for Bowser, the tiny stage, and super close blast zones -- but the biggest factor is actually the smallness of the stage itself (and how likely Fox is to get knocked onto a platform). Fox has a much harder time playing his normal degenerate neutral DD/laser camping game when you're almost literally always within arm's reach.

I'm sure Fox dominates those maps at TAS-level and maybe even at very high-level play, but for almost all intents and purposes, Fox should be sweating bullets if he lets one of those get picked against him in bracket.

 

[Mr.Pickle]

Link throws stuff that's appreciably better than Melee and hit confirms into most of his kill moves?
Like even dash attack kills at like 140-150%. Get grabbed above 100% for some characters and you might as well be dead. Dthrow still has really good followups in 3.5.

Hit confirms? You mean when someone DIs in, otherwise link can't confirm off any of his projectiles reliably. Killing at 140 -150% isn't good, that's the percent you should've been dead a long time ago, and even still, I'm betting you can DI that thing to survive for another 30%. Link's grab is one of the 2 in the game that can't grab out of the air, plus it's a tether grab, so who cares if it has a somewhat confirm out of down throw, you can easily react to it and jump or spot dodge to avoid it. Also, you still won't die at 100% from a dair, all of link's kill moves are so easy to DI it's disgusting. Literally this character has nothing except hoping you get hit with a bunch of stuff, and then preying to sakurai that his kill moves work, cause that's who guaranteed his mediocrity

 

[Bleck]

I think Bowser slightly beats Fox

I almost had a heart attack before reading the rest of this post

 

[Hylian]

Squirtle still has a pretty good recovery. It's just not unpunishable at certain spots and if you get caught out of withdraw you can't gtfo aquajet anymore.

Not going to comment on the placement of the characters because I don't agree on a lot of it.

I still want to know, @ Hylian where on the tier list is the spot where it notes Link's spin2winscrub horizontal nerf? I only see mention on the vertical height and the hitboxes.

There is some velocity stuff that was changed that was too complicated really to put in the changelog. Basically, it's like YL's up-b from melee now.

 

[Hylian]

I don't really feel like making a tier list so instead I'm just going to do something more fun and list what I think 3.5 IC's match-ups are with each character since people know so little about them. Keep in mind, these numbers are with the fixed inverted turn around momentum bug.

Opponent : IC's

: 65/35 Shine hurts...shine hurts a lot. This match-up is similar to melee except with more neutral options and less punish options.
: 60/40 A bit easier solely because dsmash gimps are real and CC shine -> dsmash helps greatly.
: 45/55 IC's win this match-ups very slightly due to their massive punish game on shiek out of CC. Converting a grab into a kill is a non-issue on this character and you play around fair walls with desynch icebock/blizzard.
: 60/40 Similar to melee, IC's have great OoS punish's on falcos laser game but still have a hard time dealing with pressure and saving nana once hit due to her not DIing shine.
: 45/55 IC's have a great neutral game against marth and many grab/smash punishes OoS. Marth is hard to chaingrab center stage but super easy to juggle/edgeguard.
: 60/40 This match-up is really hard because lucario is elusive and gains double charge against IC's letting him kind of go crazy with aura.
: 50/50 Somewhat similar to marth but a bit harder solely because dtilt destroying nana while marths dtilt is just kind of annoying.
: 50/50 Very easy to kill M2 off the top out of a grab, not hard to cover neutral options against teleport because of desynchs, great OoS punishes against the character.
: 55/45 A very volatile match-up, lucas destroys IC's on hit but he's somewhat easy to grab and very easy to chaingrab.
: 40/60 Desynched iceblocks make it so sonic stops spinning. When sonic stops spinning...just hit him. Uairs stuff homing attak, nair beats every one of sonics approach options, you play more aerial in this match-up than others.
: 55/45 IC's have some sick desynchs with bananas and this match-up plays out pretty similar to brawls. It's really hard for IC's but with experience becomes closer to even. Knowing to instant throw is a must.
: 45/55 IC's mitigate pits throw combos extremely well, and pit doesn't have much in the way of mitigating theirs. His aerial momentum isn't great which leads to him getting uair'd a ton in matches and he's easy to kill from a grab.
: 60/40 My god Snake is annoying. His bthrow is great against IC's and he's super good at killing nana and just disrupting the flow of IC's gameplay. Synched ice blocks are good in this match-ups, don't desynch as much as others.
: 70/30 It's like melee but Ic's can't wobbles. RIP IC's.
: 60/40 GW's lingering hitboxes and quirky playstyle are hard for IC's to deal with. They can't combo/juggle/edgeguard this character well and have no chaingrabs but handoffs which are super hard on GW.
: 50/50 IC's have some great CG's on MK and some great grab set-ups against him, mk rebels by edgeguarding the **** out of them.
: 40/60 IC's just kind of want to walk around slowly in this match-up and use their hitboxs to stuff out anything wario does. WDing around a lot gets you shoulder bashed and bitten. Chaingrabs are pretty good against wario and hand-offs are easy.
: 60/40 Marios mobility, fireballs, and edgeguarding are just really hard for IC's to deal with considering IC's punish game on Mario is rather weak.
: 65/35 This match-up is almost as hard as Peach with Samus's upgraded kit. Dsmash is hard to deal with, they have no cg's but difficult hand-offs, and missiles are nana-magnets
: 60/40 It's basically the same as melee.
: 55/45 quirky match-up, IC's can cg rob pretty easily but his playstyle is really disruptive and it can be problematic for IC's in neutral.
: 60/40 It's like playing against falcon but not as scary and you can't really chaingrab or even hand-off her, you just try to hit her with smashes in neutral.
: 60/40 Ivy is nana's worst dream but aside from that even popo is pretty good against her with easy combos and OoS punish options.
: 45/55 Pretty even match-up, IC's often just sacrifice nana for an easy smash kill against puff.
: 40/60 IC's love big characters, the chaingrabs are easy, 0-deaths come naturally, juggling is great, charizards huge hitboxes and great punish game help him a lot however.
: 70/30 Imagine if peach was harder for IC's to catch and also had bombs. ... ... yeah ;_;.
: 45/55 Hard to grab combo kirby but easy for IC's to kill. They play this match-up from center stage and synched.
: 50/50 Ic's have great punishes on ike and vise-versa, not too much to say about this one. Aim to juggle ike and ice block edgeguard.
: 60/40 IC's have 0 combos on luigi and luigi can out maneuver them in neutral, it's a nightmare really. Jab is amazing in this match-up and you get milage from jab->dsmash.
: 60/40 Yoshi just kind of doesn't care what IC's do to him because nana just dies instantly in this match-up, it's very frustrating.
: 40/60 Similar to the zard match-up.
: 60/40 Ganons terrifying hitboxes give popo nightmares about nana dying to one hit repeatedly.
: 40/60 Ic's outrange, out combo, and out-kill pikachu. Pika is pretty great at edgeguarding them however so you need to be careful.
: 50/50 An annoying match-up for both characters, PK fire is hard to deal with but Ic's can gimp ness absurdly easily with ice blocks.
: 35/65 This match-up is pretty free for IC's, it's really hard for DK not to get grabbed.
: 25/75 This is bowsers worst match-up by a long-shot. Bowser can do nothing to IC's without getting grabbed, and it's VERY easy to 0-death bowser off a grab.
: 60/40 Zelda is very disruptive to IC's play and they can't really combo or chaingrab her well.
: 45/55 Another match-up to play synched, ice blocks are very good but squirtle is hard to catch and has great mobility options against them.
: 55/45 If you can navigate the projectile field that is link you score some amazing chaingrabs and combos. Link is pretty easy for IC's to edgeguard as well.
: 35/65 lol olimar. Your moves all get destroyed by blizzard and you aren't even hard to combo.

 

[Frost | Odds]

: 25/75 This is bowsers worst match-up by a long-shot. Bowser can do nothing to IC's without getting grabbed, and it's VERY easy to 0-death bowser off a grab.

Bowser's worst matchup is probably much worse than 75:25, but I doubt it's IC's regardless. He's in a similar situation against Marth, CF, Fox, and possibly others.

You could also be entirely right; I won't know for sure until I get to grind a lot against a decent ICs -- of which there aren't a lot.

 

[Foo]

Hey, @ Hylian is up-b a viable kill move for IC's? I randomed them a couple times and noticed that it kills absurdly early. It was really hard to hit, but I was landing kills off the top at like 60%

 

[Hinichii.ez.™]

Up b kill is legit. Too bad IC still suck.

 

[Hylian]

Hey, @ Hylian is up-b a viable kill move for IC's? I randomed them a couple times and noticed that it kills absurdly early. It was really hard to hit, but I was landing kills off the top at like 60%

Yes, we increased the knock back growth of the move from 3.02. It's the riskiest up-b in the game/the longest so we wanted it to kill earlier(it was like a wet noodle before). Their up-b being high risk/high reward fits into their moveset perfectly.

 

[Player -0]

There is some velocity stuff that was changed that was too complicated really to put in the changelog. Basically, it's like YL's up-b from melee now.

But why wasn't it mentioned in the changelog?

Personally Link's Up-B feels like it should've been in Brawl. Feels kinda depressing though.

 

[DMG]

Is Brawl officially dead after this Apex? As in, not even random Anime conventions will run it anymore?

 

[DrinkingFood]

It's already dead at random anime conventions all they run is SmUsh or occasionally PM now

 

[InfinityCollision]

: 50/50 Very easy to kill M2 off the top out of a grab, not hard to cover neutral options against teleport because of desynchs, great OoS punishes against the character.

Admittedly I don't have a lot of 3.5 experience against ICs, but... this confuses me. I don't see how Peach is 7:3, but Mewtwo is 5:5. Ability to cover teleport in neutral isn't really a major factor anymore, but especially not in this matchup. Not when Mewtwo can basically ignore your neutral game and stay out of reach until he gets an opportunity to separate Nana. Mewtwo may not have Peach's killer fair, but his mobility is better so he can still convert separation into a kill pretty easily and with minimal risk. Gimps are a thing either way. OoS... really, why is Mewtwo giving you a chance to do anything to him OoS?

Also kind of suspicious about ICs 6:4ing D3 but I don't think I've ever even seen that matchup, so that's entirely theorycraft on my end.

: 60/40 It's like playing against falcon but not as scary

 

[Bazkip]

@ Hylian I think you accidentally put the ratios for Lucario and DK the wrong way around

 

[MudkipUniverse]

what was the design choice behind nerfing Olimar?

also, what was the design choice behind nerfing the Project M top tiers, but keeping the Melee top tiers how they are?

 

[CORY]

i'll take whatever offtopic warning is necessary to marvel at the fact that mudkipuniverse is posting right after bazkip.

 

[Bazkip]

i'll take whatever offtopic warning is necessary to marvel at the fact that mudkipuniverse is posting right after bazkip.

The invasion begins

You will be assimilated



Resistance is futile (unless you're grass type)

 

[KirbyandSonicrock14]

Hmmm....interesting thoughts gang.

 

[Juushichi]

Hylian did a real interesting thing with IC, big ups to him. I kinda want to do something similar, but for Sheik:

- Heavy Disadv. (at least 4-6)
Peach / Fox
- Disadv.
Yoshi / Wolf / Ice Climbers / Jigglypuff / Samus
- Even (enough)
Wario / Diddy Kong / Falco / Mewtwo / Lucario / Lucas / Kirby / Meta Knight / Ike / Marth / Roy / Sonic
- Adv.
Mario / Luigi / Falcon / Zelda / Toon Link / Ganondorf / Squirtle / Charizard / Zero Suit Samus / Pit / King DDD / ROB / Mr. Game and Watch / Snake
- Heavy Adv. (at least 6-4)
Bowser / Donkey Kong / Link / Pikachu / Ivysaur / Ness / Olimar

---
Characters I don't think I have enough EXP against, so I went mostly with vids/theory:
Mewtwo, Squirtle, King DeDeDe, Samus

Characters I think I could explain at length due to experience in one or both sides of the MU:
Peach, Wario, Jigglypuff, Game and Watch, Link, Pikachu, Bowser, Toon Link, ROB, Ike, Marth, Diddy Kong.

I feel like I could probably switch Falco and Yoshi. Some people in Adv might be able to slip into Heavy Adv, but I'm not too sure.

 

[PlateProp]

IC's do not have an advantage against Squirrel @ Hylian , try again

 

[CyberZixx]

What makes Peach so bad for Shiek? I remember hearing Armada say it is a hard match up for Peach in melee.

 

[Juushichi]

I remember speaking to him about it, actually. If I recall correctly, he believes:
NTSC Peach vs Sheik = 4-6
PAL Peach vs Sheik = 55-45

I play this MU with Hanky Panky, talk to him about it and also watch him play Drephen (#3 in PM) a lot. For the record, Hanky is better than me obv, but I've taken games from him with other characters where it's not even close with Sheik. In addition, he trades sets frequently with Drephen in Melee. In the time since he's moved to Columbus, he's 3-3 vs him in that game and has also lost to Fizzle (~#4 in Columbus in Melee, #2 in PM). In PM, he has not dropped a set to any of the three of our Sheiks. Fizzle switched to [insert character here], Drephen has switched to Marth, I've switch to Diddy and Link to play against him.

Her mobility improved, she has a glide toss, DACUS, access to quick bairs... until 3.5, her Parasol recovery was IMPROVED from Melee and unlike prior to 3.5, she has back a usable air dodge.

for Sheik in particular... it's mostly the punish game. Stage position is not superior to easy grab confirmation, at least for most people. Her air mobility is bad and no disjoints so she can trade very unfavorably with Peach. Recovery is the same, but the amount of times that Sheik is going to be forced into it or at the ledge is more because you don't get that percent that shifts the gamestate in your (Sheik's) favor like you do in Melee. You actively have to choose to give up corner carry (and let her escape with a slap on the wrist) or try to gain more percent/juggle by going for a DI "mixup". Most of the time she releases too high for a regrab, so you have to take a slap and reset/chase.

It's one of those things that seems like on paper that it's not that bad, but then you realize that you end up trading a lot of percent and get sent further. You have to guess or go to pure stage position and sacrifice damage (where you could do both in NTSC), which built percent and also made the next time you got the grab or launcher that much more favorable. Meanwhile, Peach has all of the same things she had before and new options on top of it.

 

[Hylian]

Admittedly I don't have a lot of 3.5 experience against ICs, but... this confuses me. I don't see how Peach is 7:3, but Mewtwo is 5:5. Ability to cover teleport in neutral isn't really a major factor anymore, but especially not in this matchup. Not when Mewtwo can basically ignore your neutral game and stay out of reach until he gets an opportunity to separate Nana. Mewtwo may not have Peach's killer fair, but his mobility is better so he can still convert separation into a kill pretty easily and with minimal risk. Gimps are a thing either way. OoS... really, why is Mewtwo giving you a chance to do anything to him OoS?

Also kind of suspicious about ICs 6:4ing D3 but I don't think I've ever even seen that matchup, so that's entirely theorycraft on my end.

Well..aside from the fact that Peach and M2 play absolutely nothing alike lol..M2 just doesn't have very many safe ways of separating the climbers, while peach has numerous. IC's can juggle M2 without fear of being dsmashed on a platform, they can combo him somewhat well, and float >>>>> hover against IC's.

 

[howbadisbad]

So what if I said I don't think fox is #1 this patch?

 

[DMG]

I'd ask who you thought the actual #1 was. Duh. That's how discussions work

 

[Juushichi]

2/10 initial post, 10/10 finisher from DMG.

idk who you think the best character in the game is, but i'm pretty sure it's actually Fox.

 

[DMG]

Ya I just swept in and gave him The People's Post.

 

[steelguttey]

i would do the matchup chart thing with olimar but just imagine a list with really bad matchups with everyone

last patch olimar had probably the most even matchups in the game, now he has the most bad matchups in the game. he was good cause he was anti-cheese

 

[Deleted member]

Most even MUs belonging to olimar in 3.02? I would've given that award to someone like sheik, who went even with a good amount of the cast and then lost to more of the silly stuff.

 

[Frost | Odds]

I've probably spent more time theorycrafting Bowser's matchups than everyone else any 3 or 4 other smashers combined, but I have no idea what the ratios are atm. The meta just isn't developed enough yet; people are still really bad at dealing with Bowser, and Bowser players (especially myself, heh) are really bad at dealing with the counterplay.

 

[shairn]

Bowser MU ratios are inversely proportional to the amount of matches one has played against Bowser.
MU = 80/(m*σ) where m is amount of matches and sigma is a player skill level constant ranging between 0.5 and 1.

Regardless of character.

 

[Foo]

Damn, my bowser matchup is about 70/30. That actually seems about right lmao. All hail math, I will always love you (unless I have to use you; then, you are literally Hitler)

 

[howbadisbad]

2/10 initial post, 10/10 finisher from DMG.

idk who you think the best character in the game is, but i'm pretty sure it's actually Fox.

Everyone always starts out thinking Fox is #1 every patch before everyone realizes the sickening truth that there is actually a character better than Fox.

I'm just calling it now so when it happens I can link back to a post made months ago and talk about how right I was.

 

[Soft Serve]

Everyone always starts out thinking Fox is #1 every patch before everyone realizes the sickening truth that there is actually a character better than Fox.

I'm just calling it now so when it happens I can link back to a post made months ago and talk about how right I was.

Who then? Until it's proven/demonstrated in tournaments, there's nothing wrong with saying fox is the best right now. Thats how tierlists work.
The only character potentially better than fox imo is wolf, and that depends on if you value overall MU spreads over winning MUs harder.

 

[Sinz]

Everyone always starts out thinking Fox is #1 every patch before everyone realizes the sickening truth that there is actually a character better than Fox.

I'm just calling it now so when it happens I can link back to a post made months ago and talk about how right I was.

Well who do you think it is?

 

[Strong Badam]

Logically speaking if you think Fox isn't the best you should prob have an idea of a character that is or your post isn't really a discussion point.
Additionally every other patch had characters who were both buffed and nerfed substantially; this patch has like, Ganon buffs and that's it lol. This patch is quite different in that regard.

 

[steelguttey]

yes. ganon buffs and thats it

who cares about olimar, zelda, everyones recovery, everyones projectiles, pit, mewtwo, and link?