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Tier List Speculation

Ace76

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So wat do?
What character are you using? They must have a really bad tech roll because not even k9 consistently gets more then 3 chases. Even if the person you are fighting is just that good you have to DI up and take the nair as a follow up in that case. Or you can keep tech rolling until you are off the stage. But honestly you can normally spot dodge the dash grab if they are trying to tech chase on reaction.
 
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Ali Baba 177

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So I'm bad at this game and my opinion on tier lists is irrelevant, so I decided to make a purely results based tier list. I used all 77 tournaments from the 3.0 results thread that had characters listed, and only looked at the top 8. I gave 8 points to 1st place, 7 to 2nd, 6 to 3rd, etc, and multiplied this by the number of entries in the tournament. This made sure that large nationals were more weighted than small locals. If there were multiple characters used by a smasher, I split the points evenly among each of them, and if they used the :sheilda: icon, I just gave the points to both Zelda and Sheik. Here's the results.

A Tier: >6000 Points
1. :fox: 10,679.26 Points, 67 Top 8 Placements, Most Top 8
Appearances
2. :snake: 7708 Points, 23 Top 8 Placements
3. :mewtwopm:7639.6 Points, 32 Top 8 Placements
4. :pit:7099.33 Points, 17 Top 8 Placements
5. :lucas:/:marth:6558.14 Points, 20 Top 8 Placements for Lucas, but 59 for Marth, second only to Fox.
7. :mario2:6099.7 Points, 44 Top 8 Placements

B Tier: 6000>x>3000
8. :link2: 5821.21 Points, 39 Top 8 Placements
9. :metaknight:5754.76 Points, 36 Top 8 Placements
10. :diddy:5669 Points, 30 Top 8 Placements
11. :falco:4878.94 Points, 35 Top 8 Placements
12. :falcon:4442.83 Points, 39 Top 8 Placements
13. :charizard:4435.93 Points, 38 Top 8 Placements
14. :roypm: 3900 Points, 21 Top 8 Placements
15. :sheik: 3729.77 Points, 30 Top 8 Placements
16. :zerosuitsamus:3683.83 Points, 26 Top 8 Placements
17. :ike: 3445.67 Points, 22 Top 8 Placements
18. :zelda: 3371.57 Points, 22 Top 8 Placements
19. :dedede:3145.1 Points, 15 Top 8 Placements
20. :toonlink: 3107.5 Points, 22 Top 8 Placements


C Tier: 3000>x>1000
21. :wolf: 2958.5 Points, 13 Top 8 Placements
22. :rob:2666.93 Points, 16 Top 8 Placements
23. :ivysaur: 2550.5 Points, 18 Top 8 Placements
24. :ganondorf: 2484.66 Points, 25 Top 8 Placements
25. :dk2:2268.56 Points, 17 Top 8 Placements
26. :ness2: 2034 Points, 16 Top 8 Placements
27. :warioc:1782.83 Points, 19 Top 8 Placements
28. :kirby2: 1630.2 Points, 12 Top 8 Placements
29. :sonic: 1482.5 Points, 8 Top 8 Placements
30. :bowser2: 1312.33 Points, 15 Top 8 Placements
31. :samus2: 1261.5 Points, 10 Top 8 Placements
32. :lucario:1235 Points, 11 Top 8 Placements
33. :gw: 1146.8 Points, 8 Top 8 Placements
34. :pikachu2: 1004.5 Points, 5 Top 8 Placements

D Tier: <1000
35. :luigi2:888.56 Points, 9 Top 8 Placements
36. :peach: 821.5 Points, 9 Top 8 Placements
37. :squirtle: 737.9 Points, 9 Top 8 Placements
38. :jigglypuff: 669.5 Points, 5 Top 8 Placements
39. :olimar: 472 Points, 3 Top 8 Placements
40. :yoshi2: 437 Points, 5 Top 8 Placements
41:popo: 119 Points, 1! Top 8 Placements

So yeah, not the greatest list, but it was really interesting to put together and see how things turned out. Personally, there were way more Charizards than I expected, and TL did surprisingly well, but he was often comained with either Marth or Link, so that might have helped carry him. Also, PMBR pls fix ICs.
I can really appreciate what you did here as I did nearly the same thing as you did. I just used more sources and then calculated a little differently for the number of entrants. I think its interesting to look at both of our tournament tier charts, there are several somewhat big differences. Also I really appreciate your list and I'm going to include it for a little weight in my next Combined tier list, thanks!

My previous tier list post said:
READ THIS: This is not a official tier list, merely some data I have collected!
However I do believe it accurately reflects PM's 'tier list' at this time, bare in mind this is for the current time and will definitely change month to month depending on game updates and developing meta.

Community tier lists will forever be a great place for debate which is why I love doing it, especially since this is a Speculation thread! The voting system allows for people from all over to influence the tier list which means different regions with different strong characters/players will be represented. Now this obviously has flaws in it as more people could vote from one place or another, stupid people might vote, and trolls might lurk. But it still shows what people are thinking in general on this thread and is a good thing to keep track of.
When I was first gathering data about PM and trying to create a current 'tier' list I was using tournament results in my tier list and some people kept saying it was a bad idea. I have thought about it and looked at what I was doing and figured that the way I was collecting data and including top results was more along the lines of showing what characters you are most likely to face off against in the top 8 at a random tournament in the past couple months (random day of the week and random place around the world). Now this is not what a typical tier list represents per-say, but it definitely shows helpful things about who people are playing at a higher level, what characters you should practice against more maybe, etc.
The percentage in the tier represents the likelihood of a top 8 battle. (made up)

The tier lettering system is often misinterpreted and I have tried to change the titles of tiers and seen others do the same. Do not misinterpret letters like D to mean bad and not viable, PMBR has done a great job at balancing and more importantly designing the entire cast. Its just that in the end, someone has to be on bottom and on top. Plenty of people on here have labeled there own meanings for the different tiers based on viability or need for changes or being slept on. This tier list is as I said, based on the data of community and tournament, which means it resembles something that can be more understood then someones speculation.

So, the described the two other 'tier' lists above are the most influential in the creating of this tier list that I have. I think that all in all this 'combined' tier list if you will represents the tier list of the short term future as it includes the data of the past and the speculation of the future. Predicting who has the most end all potential is hard and in the end somewhat pointless. Even games that dont change (melee) change there tier list every once in a while to respect changes in the meta. I think this tier list is the perfect way to show what PM is like at the current time/short future.

I again used similar methods from the last data tier list that I created, just a few changes to weight assigned. This tier list is comprised of the community tier ranking that was filled out here on smashboards (~45%), around 120 tournament results (~35%), and then ~20% of random factors such as other peoples community tier lists made on here, facebook, and everywhere, CT tier list, character usage, etc.
The tournament results are weighted on number of entrants and date of tournament, so the more recent tournaments and larger tournaments assign a greater value for placing.

Again, I understand people hate the numbering list because then characters in 30s or 40s seem bad, but this is NOT the case, all characters are viable proven by Dakpo, Hbox, Vist, etc.

If this tier list has any confusing placements of any character for you then its either because the community disagrees with you or the character has had unexpected tournament results. There are still tournaments I did not include so it has flaws in it for sure, but take it for what it is worth, I spent a lot of time on it. If you care about tier lists and think I need to change the weighting system I have or something, feel free to give any advice.
 

Master Raven

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Not getting grabbed in general is easier said than done.

In any case I suppose if you're playing a fast faller then you're going to have a much more difficult time getting out of MK's tech chase. Floaty characters can just hold forward and eat the nair.
 

jtm94

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I've seen a lot of people undervalue Captain Falcon as being bad, and while his grounded attacks all suck imo, he isn't bad. His superior movement alone puts him at least mid-tier and the strength of the knee boosts that even more. I too used to throw around how Falcon is bad in this game, but then I played him and he can definitely still hold his own against most of the cast.

And my sarcastic post about Squirtle's abysmal tech roll is just salt that tech rolls are unjustly given to every character based on no solid logic.
 
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trash?

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he was already overrated in melee as-is tbh

his use vs. big-bodies could have purpose but I'm recalling someone once pointing out situations like charizard being able to CC a knee at ridiculous percentages
 

jtm94

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Charizard has insane weight. But Captain Falcon is definitely really good at punishes, missed techs can lead to lost stocks, and he can crush recovery.

In Melee I do agree he was overrated, because Fox is so rampant and extremely hard to get a hold of with so many fast unpunishable moves, but now there is much more variety in PM which includes characters Captain Falcon can handle.

For example, I would never want to play CF against Fox, but now there are characters like Diddy who can go toe-to-toe with Fox, but with that being said I think CF can handle Diddy better than he can handle Fox. TL:DR In a Melee environment Falcon struggles against top tiers, but in this game a lot more characters are viable that aren't Fox.
 
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DMG

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DMG#931
For example, I would never want to play CF against Fox, but now there are characters like Diddy who can go toe-to-toe with Fox, but with that being said I think CF can handle Diddy better than he can handle Fox. TL:DR In a Melee environment Falcon struggles against top tiers, but in this game a lot more characters are viable that aren't Fox.
(Long text GG's)

I agree and disagree with you. Falcon isn't so good, but the reason isn't strictly Fox related. Other character in Melee beat Falcon by a more significant margin, and in PM he has some new hard MU's + harder Melee vet MU's. Even his MU spread against "bad" characters from Melee have gotten tighter: you can't slouch vs G^W or Zelda or Kirby in this game. It also works against Falcon to have more viable characters, since for Falcon to maintain a decent placing you would have to prove:

1. That he beats these new viable characters on the same scale or better than others

2. He doesn't lose to these new viable characters more than other people do

Having a ton of really bad characters in Melee was good for Falcon, since that meant less challenges to his power. The same as Fox probably prefers that characters didn't get buffed or added: it can negatively impacts his ability to dominate at #1.


Using Fox (and things revolving around Fox) as the measurement for Falcon in this game would be the wrong way to go about it imo. I think if you took a comparison list of MU's and characters from PM to Melee, even before factoring in new characters it should be expected for Falcon to have harder/tighter MU's. There aren't too many Brawl characters near the top, that Falcon is easier to use against compared to other top Melee vets. Take the Diddy example: do you think Falcon does better against the Monkey, than Marth or Sheik (or buffed Mario)? Even if you assume that Falcon edges out some of these other comparison characters, he undoubtedly does worse for probably an equal amount and then goes on to def do worse against the general cast. The difference is clear when it comes to the high tiers above him, and pretty debatable when it comes to other decent mid tiers.


Falcon in Mid Tier sounds fine, depending on how big your tiers would be ofc. There are other good characters that are probably "floating" somewhere high in Mid Tier that it's still hard to place him accurately. Falcon may or may not be better in the end than someone like Ike, Zard, etc


I always get the feeling that PM Falcon is even faster then he is in Melee.
He's slightly faster in some small areas but overall he should have like 90% the same frame data as before.
 
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SpiderMad

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ORLY was tellin me about how being able to outright kill rather than edge guard in a game of great recoveries keeps him viable
 

jtm94

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I guess I didn't really cover all the bases when only speaking of Fox, but he struggles against a handful of Melee top tiers, Fox, Sheik, Marth, Puff? I do not know the Falco or Peach MU. And I honestly do think Falcon does better against Brawl characters overall than Melee top tiers. Melee characters typically had weaker recovery in a game heavily dependent on edgeguarding, where as Brawl characters can definitely edgeguard, but better recoveries make it more difficult to do so. This is where Captain Falcon's ability to KO comes in, see the above post.
 

DMG

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DMG#931
I think Smashboards ate my post from maintenance. The dark times are upon us.

Falcon can do decent against some of the Brawl characters, it just doesn't appear to make up for the negative differences that he has harder Melee MU's + plenty of new Brawl characters are blatantly better.
 

jtm94

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I suppose I can agree with that, I just wanted to argue for Captain Falcon's sake because he still has incredibly good stuff, but I do strongly dislike how bad a lot of his moves are.

So it would seem the Swedish Sniper was rusty and is back. I really don't understand why M2K chooses to go Fox against Pit even after decimating 2 of Pit's stocks with Mewtwo. The start of that singular game is literally a showcase of how good Mewtwo is, and not even in the right hands, just good.

Lastly. Why does Sonic have guaranteed follow ups out of his one throw. I think it is F Throw perhaps where he puts them on his back. It just irritates me as if his speed couldn't react to anything he can get follow ups with fair or uair both of which are pretty strong. I just feel like he doesn't need it.
 

DMG

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Uthrow is the one where he pops you up. It's always been good since he runs so fast: I don't find it too atrocious since other characters have lame Uthrows or Dthrows
 

jtm94

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I just feel exceedingly fast characters can already get follow-ups on tons of things other characters cannot. I guess it's just me, but I don't like guaranteed things out of grabs for anyone. That's why I'm against Lucas having a KO throw and downthrow which can lead into KOs.
 

Searing_Sorrow

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The justification is supposed to be that Lucas uses a tether, and as such takes a risk throwing out such a bold move cause it leads to heavy punishes. Ness has a kill throw so logic says Lucas should too. Down throw is to add an extra punishment for being grabbed by a risky move in the form of a followup. Sonic literally has the smallest grab range in the game, so they wanted him to benefit from a grab, though his speed means he gets more grabs then originally planned. As for mew two, he has a buffed kill throw cause... cause it was in melee, and a down throw that leads to combos cause... he needed it in melee, and a command grab that reflects and combos cause... OK not everyone needs grab followups but some are justified, aka toon link
 
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jtm94

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Lucas is like the second easiest tether grab to hit people with consistently next to Ivy. Toon Link is fine, Link himself is also pretty slow. Just like to bring stuff up from time to time. Ness truly deserves that KO throw though.
 

trash?

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someone said not too long ago that the link tier lists are link's boomerang > toon link > link and I'd say that's about right (especially after seeing lunchables roll through a healthy chunk of texas, damn dude)

if it weren't for link's boomerang covering so many options, link would be booty buttcheeks
 

Searing_Sorrow

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someone said not too long ago that the link tier lists are link's boomerang > toon link > link and I'd say that's about right (especially after seeing lunchables roll through a healthy chunk of texas, damn dude)

if it weren't for link's boomerang covering so many options, link would be booty buttcheeks
People that played blazblue had to fight against ada. The only way to win was to beat up the dead weight baggage known as Carl. Same principle with link and his boomerang lol.
 

Kati

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Does this bother anyone else?

"However, [falco] was very slightly nerfed from Melee due to a few of his options being weakened." - smash wiki.


A few options are weakened, but he also gained a bunch of other options too. Idk, it just seems wrong saying he's been nerfed when there are still so many mu's to figure out.
 

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the man

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What's the general opinion on Yoshi?

I feel like he's easily top 10 tbh. Sleeper op with his lack of an up-b being his only real downfall.
 

MrBigstuff

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Yoshi's good, but people will learn to footstool him before people learn how to be good with him. Mid-Low tier imo.
 

C_Mill24

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Yoshi probably is low-mid tier. Not only is his recovery hampered without a rising up special, he also has quite the learning curve when it comes to performing his signature attributes like Parrying and Edge Cancelled Eggs.
 

trash?

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I have to repeat myself whenever yoshi talk comes up, but: right now, his neutral game is useless, because he doesn't have stuff like parrying yet due to technical problems, and his parry basically put him up several tier spots on its own in melee. the second he gets that, then things might start heating up (lmao "yoshi talk" w/o spaces comes up censored)
 
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trash?

witty/pretty
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but, by sticking out a move, you remove his armor, which is why his second jump has so much importance!

metagames, y'all
 

Spiffykins

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Not getting grabbed in general is easier said than done.

In any case I suppose if you're playing a fast faller then you're going to have a much more difficult time getting out of MK's tech chase. Floaty characters can just hold forward and eat the nair.
Yeah but it's especially hard against MK lol

have you seen how far his boost grab goes? Borked.
 

Mr.Random

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One thing I can't stand when seeing other Mario's play is when they have a stock lead and they don't go super deep for edgeguards. Mario's recovery is stupid so you'll make it back with a wall jump air dodge or wall jump cape depending on your opponents location.
 

DMG

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Don't need to go deep. Double Fireball tends to cover 80% of recoveries anyways if you have any sense of timing or spacing.

Mario gonna get those gucci nerfs.
 
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Mr.Random

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Don't need to go deep. Double Fireball tends to cover 80% of recoveries anyways if you have any sense of timing or spacing.

Mario gonna get those gucci nerfs.
Why would he get nerfed? Besides recovery. He's near perfect. I think if they nerf his recovery he should be given a very good grab range honestly that's the only thing feel he needs if they nerf him.
 

DMG

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Fireball cooldown nerf. Everyone and their grandma knows they went too far on those buffs. I expect it to get reverted to either Melee timings, or something just a tad faster than Melee. What he currently has is too much and doesn't contribute anything healthy to the game.

For Upb walljump, I wouldn't be surprised if the timing got stricter or something.You could touch his recovery in other minor ways (changing cape floating drift bounce, changing Down B height gain, etc) but those probably wouldn't be received very well.

Mario doesn't need a grab range increase, when he has two of the best throws in the game atm.
 
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