Tier List Speculation

[Plum]

And also unlike Marth Roy doesn't exaclty get to a point where he stops being able to combo into moves that outright kill you. Oh, you lived to 120%? Let's watch as my SHFFL'd Uair still leads into a sweetspot Fsmash

 

[Nguz95]

We are talking about a specific matchup, aren't we? A general punish game is different than specific punishes for different characters. I'm not going to argue that Roy's punish game covers more characters and options than Diddy's does, but when the two go head to head, I think Diddy punishes harder by virtue of his ability both kill outright and gimp Roy in fewer moves than Roy can. An element of the punish game is consistency, and dthrow to dash attack to fair seems simpler than dair launcher into uair string into bair/fsmash/nb/100%. There's a reason there's only one Sethlon and a million Diddy Kongs running around.

 

[Soft Serve]

Roy/Diddy MU is imo 50/50. Roy and Diddy are actually essentially the same weight/fallspeed combination (ie stupid easy to combo) so the punish games are insane. Roy gets all his shff uairs and d tilts into f smash and neutral b and bair. Diddy gets obscene weak nair strings, easy side-b follow us, and gets a ton off tech chases (Fastfaller = uthrow combos into stuff untill like 80, etc).
Te gimp game is really strong on both sides, Diddy's gimp game on roy is so free, he can just arch bananas then grab ledge, ledgejump Dair of roy gets on the ledge. Roy is better than Marth at edge guarding diddy imo because while marth has to put out at lot of low/medium knockback disjoints for edge guards, Roy can do the same options but they pop up for an f-smash. for example, why go for a ledge drop >bair interception when you can ledge jump Dair >fsmash Also, Roy can hold the ledge past the time diddy can sweetspot, and just ledge jump turn around Neutral-b Charge. its realy free.
The neutral game is really similar to marth/diddy, its just a more explosive MU. The difference is that while marth would already have a crazy punish game, Diddy's game got even better because Roy gets punished harder than marth.

 

[Ripple]

thinking about making a doubles tier list discussion since that's what my main focus is right now and what my character is good at anyway. wondering if any amount of people would like to discuss it an analyze doubles videos and make it a thing.

I know there won't be a tier list of best to worst but each character could have a ranking of like 3 or more classes that we appreciate in doubles and rank them out of 5 or so.

 

[Soft Serve]

thinking about making a doubles tier list discussion since that's what my main focus is right now and what my character is good at anyway. wondering if any amount of people would like to discuss it an analyze doubles videos and make it a thing.

I know there won't be a tier list of best to worst but each character could have a ranking of like 3 or more classes that we appreciate in doubles and rank them out of 5 or so.

I tried like a year ago and it died after like 3 weeks
but doubles is so much more interesting than singles, I'd love to participate in the thread even if its just to listen to other people talk about doubles haha

 

[Ali Baba 177]

Did the thread get removed or its just that no one comments on it? Why do people think ZSS is below average? I think she is really good as she has really good/tricky combos and her back air is a great aerial kill move and her smashes might be a little weaker but have the range of the galaxies. Also that projectile is pretty beast.

 

[DrinkingFood]

ROB is going to be mid tier on the doubles tier list too I just know it
PMBR buff plz

 

[Thane of Blue Flames]

Did the thread get removed or its just that no one comments on it? Why do people think ZSS is below average? I think she is really good as she has really good/tricky combos and her back air is a great aerial kill move and her smashes might be a little weaker but have the range of the galaxies. Also that projectile is pretty beast.

Idk apparently they live in a universe where some of the best movement, recovery and set-up options in the game make you subpar.

Also @ Ripple please do make that thread. Doubles discussion died last time but I think we can fix that by slapping 'Tier list' on the title.

 

[Hylian]

Please don't make that thread actually :/. This is already a tier list speculation thread, you can discuss doubles in here as well.

 

[Thane of Blue Flames]

Mods >.>

10mods

 

[Ripple]

this thread is entirely singles focused though @ Hylian . I don't see the harm in having a thread dedicated to doubles.I'd also not like to have posts discussing different metagames in one thread

I'd also be willing to bet the doubles discussion would have far fewer trolls and garbage posts like "Link is so broken" with nothing to back it up

 

[Hylian]

this thread is entirely singles focused though @ Hylian . I don't see the harm in having a thread dedicated to doubles.I'd also not like to have posts discussing different metagames in one thread

I'd also be willing to bet the doubles discussion would have far fewer trolls and garbage posts like "Link is so broken" with nothing to back it up

You can just make a doubles discussion thread, but don't make a "tier list doubles speculation thread"

 

[Terotrous]

Anyone else believe many characters share the same tier placement? Like, multiple people in the #5 spot or such.

I definitely think the tierlist is pretty compact, which will make choosing between, say, 5 to 9 impossible.

Why do people think ZSS is below average?

Honestly I think it's mostly character inexperience. A lot of people seemed to kind of forget ZSS existed before PM put her on the stage select screen.

In terms of her specific toolset, ZSS is a pretty extreme character. She has incredible range, but apart from a couple attacks, she's also pretty slow. In particular, she has by far the game's slowest grab, giving her sub-par options against shielding characters. Her range isn't quite as threatening once you realize you can simply block most of her attacks.

I think she's definitely a solid mid-tier, but like I've said before, there's too many characters in this game who have really strong options without any real drawbacks for me to consider top tier at this time.

 

[Chesstiger2612]

I think multiple spots probably mean that one character is so slightly better that we can't measure it, I don't really think characters can be completely as good as each other if they aren't completely the same in such a complex environment

 

[JOE!]

I think multiple spots probably mean that one character is so slightly better that we can't measure it, I don't really think characters can be completely as good as each other if they aren't completely the same in such a complex environment

Well, how would your quantify how good somebody is then?

Say character A has 10 advantageous MU's, 20 even MU's, and 10 bad MU's.

Character B then has 10 advantageous MU's, 20 even MU's, and 10 bad MU's.

They have the same "Spread", but against different portions of the cast lets say.

Which is better?

 

[BluntedMask]

Wouldn't the one with the better match ups against higher tier characters be the superior character in a way?

 

[Ali Baba 177]

Or would it be the one with the better match ups against more popularly played characters in tournaments?

 

[JOE!]

Wouldn't the one with the better match ups against higher tier characters be the superior character in a way?

This is where it can get really confusing really fast.

Given the nature of PM, I believe that MU spreads are probably much more important than "tier placement" due to the huge variety of viable characters. This is the main reason I only made 4 "tiers" at all when I posted my thoughts earlier (Above Average, Average, below Average, and "Needs Help" ).

In reality, you cannot really compare character A and B against just one another, you need to compare characters A through A-O (41st alphabetical).

This said, a character could probably be better judged by the sheer ratio of MUs they win/lose in a given tournament because just about any MU is relevant. Character A's 10 wins and 10 losses puts it at an even footing with Character B's 10/10 spread in my opinion, as only a "regional" difference would make a big impact on their placements usually (if a losing MU for character A is a very popular character in a region, Character A wouldn't do as well as Character B).

Say we introduce Char C into the mix, who has 9 winning MU's, and 11 losing ones. However small, that Character would be worse than A and B due to having 1 more difficult MU that could be a roadblock to success than the others. On the flip side, Char D with 11 winning and 9 losing is better than the other 3 for the opposite reasons (1 less roadblock on average). Like with Mario right now and Fox in Melee, its not really about how many MU's you -dominate- in as much as how many you simply do not lose that can determine how well your character performs overall.


Its sort of like looking at a food chain almost. A lion looks pretty top tier in the savannah stage list, going against Wildebeest and Zebra in nearly every bracket, with the occasional Crocodile player threatening it's placements. But if Lion moves to NA where he then has to compete with Bear and Moose mains on the colder climate stage list, he may look much worse because he has to face tough MU's. So overall, despite the regional advantage in the Savannah, Lion as a character is still like upper mid due to an overall positive MU spread against the widely varied cast he'd have to contend with. Their rival Crocodile mains, who actually win the MU vs Lion may actually be worse due to being screwed by any non-aquatic stage list, leading to many more tough MUs than Lion who can still have a good approach on land. Bear is then on the same tier as Lion due to winning and losing a similar number of Mus across the cast that either could run into. Moose finally is Lion's better in that it has far fewer losing MU's, seriously; have you ever seen something fight a moose? Antlers OP.

So across 41 different characters that are viable, across thousands of MU variations that can alter based on stage choice alone, I find it hard to believe that some characters cannot be called "just as good overall" as another.

 

[TheReflexWonder]

Crocodiles are the pinnacle of combat-ready creation and would readily maul anything else that dares to enter their domain.

 

[JOE!]

Crocodiles are the pinnacle of combat-ready creation and would readily maul anything else that dares to enter their domain.

Thats the thing though, they have a very campy playstyle and while they do wonders vs those stupid enough to play Rushdown or -have- to approach (Like Wildebeest, I'm pretty sure they are a bottom tier at this point), other characters that can bait them out of their defensive position can abuse their sluggish land movement, such as Gorilla, Human and Penguin (if Zoo tycoon taught me anything, Penguins are S tier). Other characters like Bear can just muscle through Crocodile's defenses, and some like Giant squid can play an even campier game, even though that MU is still even at worst for Crocodile as GS has an even worse stage issue with recovery problems.

 

[Terotrous]

Human is severely OP. It has a favourable matchup against every other species except maybe for Bees. God I hate Bees.

 

[JOE!]

Bees is that token anti-meta character that always shows up. The higher on the tier list, the better Bees does vs you it seems lol.

Only exception being Bear.

 

[Alfonzo Bagpipez]

Whenever someone is a Bee main, I always counterpick with Honey Badger.
Ain't got time fo' dat.

 

[Thane of Blue Flames]

This thread is certainly going places ...

 

[MLGF]

Like the list of locked topics!

 

[Ali Baba 177]

So tier lists from melee and such are based mainly on tournament results right? What do people think the tier list means for PM? Is it the results or total speculation of characters full potential in the future (several years), or is it how people play characters currently?

 

[1FD]

Been maining Bee since my own release date.
Right on Bee talk FINALLY
I'm down with Ripple, Soft Serve, and Lordling, on the doubles thing
HYLIAN WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOUR PROBLEMS
We're having a doubles only tournament on May 25th
Should BEE awesome

Was talking with a lot of smashers the last couple days about character stuff and life makes more sense now that most of the stuff I was wondering about was covered in detail
Love having local geniuses
Everybody should get one as a pet
But that meaens one day we all might BEE one and then we would all be DOOMED I SAY DOOMED

@ Ali Baba 177 I and locals consider the tier list basically this
Our BEST guess at the END GAME given the context that we have at the given moment
That's why META GAMES exist, and why any Tier List based on someone being the best NOW and not What's ACTUALLY the best, isn't actually a Tier List but more of a list of current TRENDS
AKA meta game
End game is the only time a tier list even COMES COMPLETELY INTO PLAY so anything other than that TECHNICALLY doesn't qualify AT ALL as a Tier List or even speculation and just becomes the META GAME OF TIER LISTS instead of a Tier List
That confusing or am I good at stuff?

 

[Strong Badam]

in melee even the lower high level players are playing the game "right" and understand how characters interact, so using tournament results makes sense

using tourney results for pm doesn't make sense because what we see in tournament is the result of a lot of players being various degrees of mediocre even the best ones, yes including me

 

[KayB]

How does stage striking work in PM? I haven't been following.

 

[standardtoaster]

That's not really related to this thread, but X strikes a stage. Y strikes all stages not on random. Z clears your strikes.

 

[MrBigstuff]

Z clears strikes?

This changes everything.

 

[KayB]

That's not really related to this thread, but X strikes a stage. Y strikes all stages not on random. Z clears your strikes.

No, I meant in a tournament ruleset, not literally.

 

[Bryonato]

standard striking is 1 2 2 1

 

[Soft Serve]

7 stage neutral lists (like apex) strike 1-2-2-1. 5 stane nuetral lists (melee, the list socal uses) strike 1-2-1. the main difference is with 7 stages the second person choses the final stage, while with 5 stages its the first person who does so.

 

[Chesstiger2612]

Well, how would your quantify how good somebody is then?

Say character A has 10 advantageous MU's, 20 even MU's, and 10 bad MU's.

Character B then has 10 advantageous MU's, 20 even MU's, and 10 bad MU's.

They have the same "Spread", but against different portions of the cast lets say.

Which is better?

So, if we want to be precise about that I would probably solve it in an iterative way.
Every matchup percentage is added together, and there are slightly better advantegous ones (0.55 or 0.6) and highly advantegous ones (0.65 or 0.7). I don't really think any matchup is more than that but it could continue obviously.
Well, now the assumption is that how much you have to play the matchup is proportional to the matchup spread of the respective other character. Example in Melee, if there was an character that is good vs Fox and bad vs Pichu that would be better than a character being bad vs Fox and good vs Pichu, because you will be facing tons of Foxes and (almost) no Pichus.
You can get the new probability of the character being chosen by (added matchup probability)/(number of matchups excluding mirrors and only counting non-mirrors once).
You can now repeat the process until the change after one iteration becomes negligible, then you have a good estimation and therefore a good tier placement.

For that, we obviously need detailed and correct matchup probabilities which is currently not the case, but this is just how one could break ties in matchups etc...

Also, it is highly doubtable that even if we collect matchup percent there can even be a case where 2 characters are exactly as good as each other, but it will be always just a cause of inaccuracies in matchup probabilities, for example if you make steps of 0.05 (^= 5%) and the characters wouldn't have the same amount of summed probabilities if it were 0.01 (^=1%) steps. That the characters stay as good as each other even if steps get smaller and smaller isn't really logical because character strengths relative to each other can be modelled by Gaussian curves (very few top tiers, some high tiers, many mid tiers, some low tiers, very few bottom tiers, so to speak) and if you input two random numbers in that (unknown) function, the probability they are exactly the same is exactly 0 (!) for some other reasons which would take too long to explain here.

Summed up, characters are not as good as each other, but they can be almost as good so we can't say who is better (yet).

 

[JOE!]

If you wanna get into asymptotes than sure, but on average a character that is like 0.01% better/worse than another may as well be on the same spot.

The pichu example also doesn't really work here, as this game currently doesn't have such a crappy character to tote around given that every char atm is a threat in some manner. So what I was getting at here, is that since most all characters seem to be well repped, even the "less fortunate" ones, havign good MUs all arouns instead of just "popular" Mus is more coveted on average, barring certain regions. For example, my region has a ton of Marth and Link players, so being good in those MUs would probably get you further than in a region with a ton of Mario's and Lucas' or such. You dig?

 

[jtm94]

I've always struck in order of 2-2-1-1 I guess it's just whatever at the end of the day.

I REALLY hope stages are added for teams in the top row because teams is incredibly more interesting to play/watch on larger stages instead of stages that feel incredibly cramped like Battlefield.

What is up with Skyloft and Lylat? I feel like incredibly few people like them or feel their characters are even good on them.

 

[Nguz95]

Skyloft and Lylat are great. If you ever have spacie problems, just take them there.

 

[Ace55]

Skyloft and Lylat are great. If you ever have spacie problems, just take them there.

In theory I like Lylat as a spacie counterpick (mostly because of the ledges) but why Skyloft?

 

[Nguz95]

It's harder to laser camp when there are two tall platforms and a level change. Also, the left edge is difficult to sweetspot. Not nearly as hard as Lylat, but still difficult.