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Tier List Speculation

Kaeldiar

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View attachment 9609

This is a Tier List that I have been working on for the past month, some people misinterpret letters and dislike that system so I tried to give new titles, (pretty much same thing though). I have accounted for over 50 different tournaments, weighting larger tournaments and the more recent the tournament is in order to recognize improving meta. I then combined this information with the tier lists surveys that were filled out by nearly 100 people from smashboards - hopefully this means they are opinions of people who play the game enough and have some validity in there speculations.

The tiers are divided by gaps in the scores they received. They should represent current effectiveness in competitive play. So top tier characters are something like, versatile and good MU's so that they can be played alone and place in a tournament. Middle tier characters are solid, but either need to outsmart the opponent or a secondary character for bad MU's in order to place in a tournament. And then bottom tier characters need a good day or definitely need an alternate character as well. These descriptions get more or less valid as the character is placed on the lower or upper side of the tier.

This is a pretty balanced game as seen by all bottom tier characters placing at least a few times. But if this tier list has really confusing placements of any character then its either because the community disagrees with you or the character has had unexpected tournament results. So in that case please show me any tournaments that you the character did well in and if I havent included them then I will put them in for next month.

First off, WOW! Thank you for taking the time to do this. That's quite the endeavor, and I definitely appreciate someone putting forth that much work towards this. That being said, here's what I saw that seemed strange...

Olimar that low?? Not sure when you made this, but Hbox plays Oli, and he finished #2 at Shuffle V. Even with this, he still might be the bottom of the barrel, but it seems strange for him to be THE worst with a #2 finish.
As far as Lucas goes, I would have expected him to be higher, considering a handful of Lucas players basically own Xanadu, but idk. I don't know all the tournaments out there, and don't know how much you weighted what, so...yeah.
 

Fortress

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Olimar that low?? Not sure when you made this, but Hbox plays Oli, and he finished #2 at Shuffle V.
Okay, this is something that should be an example for anybody trying to make up their own tier list. Just because an S-tier player happens to place high with a certain character (not that Olimar is particularly low by any standard) does not justify them moving up to high or even top-tier. It goes back to the Toon Link example; his performance is not consistent enough through a large base of players to warrant being any higher than he generally is.

I just say this because I know at some point we're going to see GnW or Squirtle in A-Tier because some dude placed high with him in some tournament.
 

Hinichii.ez.™

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Hbox didn't just use Olimar, he used jigs and mario as well. Look at how often he used olimar, who he used him against and what character(s) he used him on. This has already been said, let's read and move on.
 
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Thane of Blue Flames

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Couple of things about that community made tier list.

a) It was open to anyone regardless of skill level. As completely full of myself as I am, I do not for a moment believe that my *opinion* on this game, however informed or misinformed, counts for jack. It's why I'm content to contribute, poke people, discuss and learn (it has helped me uncover techs and improve my own game) but I absolutely refuse to make a definitive tier list. It is not my place, it is not the time, and even the people who are good at this game know approximately somewhere between jack and **** about eventual dominant strategies and final shape of the tier list. Please remember people actually thought Mario was the 5th best character in Melee and that R.O.B was high tier in Brawl at first (no doubt because of CPU beating Ken). Letting people of all skill levels vote without any sort of screening process is just asking for statistical garbage.

b) Taking tournament placement into account is also going to miss a lot of crucial data. Why? Seven characters, i.e. about 15% of the metagame, have only existed for TWO MONTHS. You are not going to be able to glean an accurate picture of how well Icies, Oli, Roy, Samus, Yoshi, Mewtwo or Kirby place in tournies because for the majority of the game's lifetime, they have not existed. This dramatically skews the results against them, since they haven't even been given any time to breathe, or be discovered by dedicated or high-level mains.

As unreliable as pure theorycrafting speculation is, the stats right now just reflect existing or widely accepted community perceptions of a relatively nascent meta. "Oli is trash because boring", "Foxco da bess", "Deeds has no neutral", etc. Regardless of whether I agree or disagree with any of these statements, it's not much to go on at the moment.

tl;dr we really need a lot more data points before we start going for some kind of numerical rubric. And even then I'm pretty sure it should be formed by a) people who know what they're doing and b) be a match-up chart rather than a bell curve of relative placement. P:M is new, but the design is very focused and heavily takes techs into account, unlike any other Smash game, so tier gaps will be much smaller almost by default.

(This is part of the reason why I think Jiggs and Ganon flag ... Their designs are overall poorer, weren't the 'happy accident' of Fox or Marth nor the deliberate planned-out kit that Snake received. They just hover with a half-baked playstyle that their makers did not even conceive and they suffer for it.)
 

Hinichii.ez.™

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Lordling summeriazed it up pretty well
 
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Hashtag

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This is where you goofed
Probably the majority of player's opinions on here have no validity
I take everyone's opinion on a tier list at this point with the biggest grain of salt. Regardless of skill level lol. Not enough time under This game's belt along with fluctuating character player bases.
 

Terotrous

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Some characters I didn't go over before:

Luigi - Luigi's weird. For one thing, he should never Dash, under any circumstances, his wavedash is purely better. He has some really good moves that start up fast, like Nair and Fair, and a decent throw combo game, but the unusual nature of his approach game makes me unsure of how to rank him.

Wario - Wario is super different, so I need to see more Wario play to know what to do with him.

Samus - In Brawl, Samus is a pokey character who generally aims to frustrate you into leaving yourself open to her powerful (but slow or short-ranged) kill moves. This strategy is not as good in PM since once an opponent gets in, they can put much more damage on you. I suspect she's in the okay group, but I'm not really that familiar with her ice attacks yet.

Zero Suit Samus - ZSS is an interesting character. She has massive range, but a lot of her moves have a ton of endlag. This causes her to look either totally godlike or totally horrible depending on whether her moves are hitting or not. Wavegrab is bonkers though, dat range. Probably in the good group.

Wolf - Wolf looks really good, he's got great tools, speed, and combos. Should probably just go straight to the "good characters" section, but he's so new I'm not totally confident on it.

Squirtle - Squirtle basically seems to be a better Jiggs. He's still got that high air speed plus powerful, short ranged air attacks, except he's packing a bit more power and versatility behind it, especially that upsmash, which hits like a tank. Despite this, he still has some of Jiggs' weaknesses for getting in, so I suspect he's in the okay group.

Charizard - Another one of those characters who's almost completely different. Seems scary I guess, he gets a lot off any hit, and has decent space control. Recovery also seems good, but he is a huge target.

Lucario - Lucario is a shield pressure monster, he can cancel straight out of attacks into an unblockable command grab, which is guaranteed in some situations and scary in others. However, for whatever reason people seem to think he's bad. I don't really get that argument, so I'll hold off on rating him until I see his weaknesses in action.

Ness - He's clearly outclassed by Lucas, but I'm not convinced he's quite as bad as everyone thinks. He's still got some nice hitboxes and PK Fire is a solid projectile. I guess some of the problem is having PK Thunder as your only recovery, it's super gimpable.

Snake - Snake was the god of stage control in Brawl, but I feel he has been outclassed by Ivysaur, particularly since Ivysaur stole his mortar. Tranq is an interesting new move, and is definitely way better than his old side B, but he has recovery problems and I feel like he has issues getting people off of him if they get in.

Sonic - Sonic is so fast that I have no idea whether the stuff he does is really good or if people just don't know how to respond to it yet. One thing's for sure, he's not really susceptible to being kept out the way Captain Falcon is, but at the same time he doesn't quite just kill you for free either.
 
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Fortress

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Luigi - Luigi's weird. For one thing, he should never Dash, under any circumstances, his wavedash is purely better. He has some really good moves that start up fast, like Nair and Fair, and a decent throw combo game, but the unusual nature of his approach game makes me unsure of how to rank him.
Luigi's at the very least a mid-tier character. He's traditionally placed pretty low in PM despite his impressive movement and aerial options, along with an improved recovery game. As for his dash, it's used plenty by Luigi. Take a look at this match with Abate, and observe how he uses Dash after a backwards wavedash to 'buffer' his movement.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2F58lAKKhPY

Wolf - Wolf looks really good, he's got great tools, speed, and combos. Should probably just go straight to the "good characters" section, but he's so new I'm not totally confident on it.
While there's absolutely no doubt that Wolf is an excellent character, I'm not prepared to place him in top-tier, or the top of high-tier for that matter. From what I can tell from him, Wolf is the kind of character that is very, very rewarding very, very quickly; it doesn't take much to be a decent Wolf (granted, there are plenty of notable players who bring out the absolute best in him).

Personally, I'm biased against Wolf, as he comes off as a somewhat easy character to play and succeed with. Though, that's part of what places him so highly to begin with.

Ness - He's clearly outclassed by Lucas, but I'm not convinced he's quite as bad as everyone thinks. He's still got some nice hitboxes and PK Fire is a solid projectile. I guess some of the problem is having PK Thunder as your only recovery, it's super gimpable.
I agree that there's no way that Ness is as bad as most people have him placed so far. He's got an impressive set of aerial tools and kill options, with excellent mixups available in his many movement tools.

Snake - Snake was the god of stage control in Brawl, but I feel he has been outclassed by Ivysaur, particularly since Ivysaur stole his mortar. Tranq is an interesting new move, and is definitely way better than his old side B, but he has recovery problems and I feel like he has issues getting people off of him if they get in.
I don't at all feel like Ivy has outclassed Snake in any way shape or form. We see more Snakes placing high in brackets than we do Ivy's, and the two play so completely differently that they're not even comparable. I think that Snake's under a lot more scrutiny since he's been such a major player for so long at this point in PM. He feels a little more developed than some other cast members in terms of metagame advancement, but I don't expect him to drop too much further from where he is.
 
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Jacob29

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I think Falco is too high. They're both definitely not in their own tier.

I think Ness is too low too, he isn't top tier but he has some really, really good match ups.


My List..

THIS IS ALL PURELY SPECULATION AND PROBABLY ABSOLUTELY HORIBLE BUT I TRIED ANYWAY

Should note that this isn't saying Lucas > Fox + Snake but just that those 3 are stronger than MK etc

3 + 5 + 6 + 7 + 7 + 5 + 5 + 3

Top-erest
:lucas::fox::snake:

Top-eriy
:metaknight::falco::warioc::sheik::marth:

Top-er
:mario2::pit::diddy::ivysaur::wolf::link2:

Top
:zerosuitsamus::lucario::toonlink::peach::dedede::kirby2::roypm:

er-Top
:rob::sonic::charizard::bowser2::mewtwopm::falcon::samus2:

not-so-Top
:gw::ike::ness2::dk2::pikachu2:

really-not-so-Top
:popo::luigi2::jigglypuff::yoshi2:WHERE IS ZELDA ICON

ew...-Top
:ganondorf::squirtle::olimar:
 
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Fortress

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Top-erest
:fox::falco::metaknight::lucas::sheik::snake::marth:

Top-er
:pit::mario2::wolf::link2::warioc::ike:

Top
:rob::roypm::zerosuitsamus::peach::ivysaur::ganondorf:

[collapse=Double-Secret-Douglas-Tier]:falcon:[/collapse]

er-Top
:ness2::sonic::toonlink::luigi2::zeldamelee::dk2::lucario::jigglypuff::mewtwopm::bowser2:
not-so-Top
:gw::dk2::dedede::charizard::diddy:

ew...-Top
:squirtle:
Re-ordered this for you. Left-to-right for who's at the top of what category and whatnot. Not included are Olimar, Samus, Ice Climbers, Yoshi, and Kirby, since they've barely been around for this build.

EDIT: Moved Zelda up to the middle of... whatever the **** tier 'er-Top' is, moved Peach slightly down and moved Roy and ZSS up one spot, kept Diddy where he is.
 
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Jacob29

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Re-ordered this for you. Left-to-right for who's at the top of what category and whatnot. Not included are Olimar, Samus, Ice Climbers, Yoshi, and Kirby, since they've barely been around for this build.
As I said before, I dont think the Spacies are as high and mighty as they once were. Not that they got worse (although they kinda did I guess with the shine/projectile nerf), but that there's more competition out there now.

Also I think CF is too high in yours.
 

Fortress

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As I said before, I dont think the Spacies are as high and mighty as they once were. Not that they got worse (although they kinda did I guess with the shine/projectile nerf), but that there's more competition out there now.

Also I think CF is too high in yours.
I don't think they are, either. I think Wolf is traditionally the 'easy' character to play in the top tiers of characters, and I decided to move the Spacies into a much larger 'A'-tier category of characters, the gap between which is much smaller in PM. My belief is that Fox/Falco are still just as viable and potentially high and mighty as they ever were, there are just more viable characters to challenge them now.

Douglas is also right where he needs to be, in Double-Secret-Falcon-Tier.

Double-Secret-Double-Edit: I should clarify; I said "I don't think they are" and then immediately said "I think they are high and mighty". Yes, I think that Fox/Falco can exhibit a level of dominance over the game similar to Melee, though the gap has been closed significantly, and their matchup spread is not nearly as green.
 
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CyberZixx

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I still think Spacies are amazing. As is Mario. I think Marth is the most overrated character and Pikachu is not so good. That the extent of my tier list, everything else is real iffy.
 

9bit

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Tier List Bell Curve Mk. II

Now that I am not drunk anymore and put a little more thought into it (and flipped the X axis) here it is:

Top
Fox, Falco

High
• Meta Knight, Sheik, Wolf
• Mario, Lucas, Pit

High Middle
• ZSS, Marth, Wario, Diddy Kong, Bowser, Kirby
• Ivysaur, Snake, Mewtwo, Link, Ike, Yoshi

Low Middle
• Peach, Charizard, Roy, Captain Falcon, Samus, Sonic, King Dedede
• Donkey Kong, Ice Climbers, ROB, Zelda, Jigglypuff, Lucario

Low
• Toon Link, Pikachu, Luigi
• Ness, Mr. Game & Watch, Olimar

Bottom
• Squirtle, Ganondorf

I didn't change much besides moving Toon Link and Peach up a little and Olimar and Lucario down a little.

Characters that could easily move: Squirtle, Ness, Olimar, Zelda, ROB, and Samus. Where they might go I'm not sure, but they'll probably all stay on the left side anyway.

Remember that there is only a slight difference in touching columns and a slightly larger difference in spaced columns. This game is crazy balanced.

• Switch Roy and Ike
• Switch Ivy and Bowser
• Switch ROB and Samus
 
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Jacob29

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I really don't think Bowser is better than Ivy, Link and Snake. In fact, I definitely don't think he is.
 

Ali Baba 177

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First off, WOW! Thank you for taking the time to do this. That's quite the endeavor, and I definitely appreciate someone putting forth that much work towards this. That being said, here's what I saw that seemed strange...

Olimar that low?? Not sure when you made this, but Hbox plays Oli, and he finished #2 at Shuffle V. Even with this, he still might be the bottom of the barrel, but it seems strange for him to be THE worst with a #2 finish.
As far as Lucas goes, I would have expected him to be higher, considering a handful of Lucas players basically own Xanadu, but idk. I don't know all the tournaments out there, and don't know how much you weighted what, so...yeah.
That shows how just because characters are low, or bottom, doesn't mean they are terrible and can't win. It just means they aren't versatile, have bad MU's, or probably just havent been developed yet which is what Lordling is saying. ez. is also right, I try to take into account when players use multiple characters to get a placement because that means they are working around bad MU's, but yes, Hbox has given credit to Olimar, just not enough.

As for lucas, I agree he is higher than that as of now, I have only accounted for one Xanadu. I weight tournaments based on how many players entered and the date.
 

\Apples

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Link is probably better than Wario overall. He has better matchups across the board, whereas Wario has too many unfavorable matchups to really appear that high. Idk, maybe he's like 12th I could see that.

Also, Kirby is blowing my mind. Top 12? Where is this Kirby footage?

I think 9-bit's little graph is a nice ballpark.
 
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Hinichii.ez.™

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It's all on VeryGrimmyBootCamp's channel
 
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Problem2

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The tier list in my head. Each tier is un-ordered.

The Best:
Fox

The Good:
Lucas, Falco, Sheik, Metaknight, Marth, Peach, Link, Pit, Snake, Pikachu, Olimar, Ness, Diddy Kong, Ivysaur, Sonic

The Meh:
Wario, Toon Link, Mewtwo, Roy, Mario, Mr.G&W, Luigi, Lucario, Yoshi, Wolf, ZSS, Samus, Jigglypuff, Ike, Captain Falcon, R.O.B., Zelda

The Bad:
Squirtle, Bowser, Ganondorf, King Dedede, Kirby

probably forgot somebody.

EDIT: I forgot Zelda. Thanks BJN39
 
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Terotrous

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Anyway, it seems fairly clear that we're not going to agree upon the placements for a lot of the cast at this time (which is not surprising as the game is so new). However, I wonder if people would agree that Jiggs, Ganondorf, and Game and Watch are all bottom tier. I've noticed these placements to be extremely consistent in tier lists, and I think there's good reason for it, too - all three of these characters are not substantially reworked from past games and have problems approaching. This was slightly tolerable in Melee, where all of the strong characters except Marth are close-range fighters, but in PM there are so many more solid characters who have huge range that this is now a crippling weakness.


Take a look at this video for example:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGTpFCmPGDc

This matchup is so bad that Hungrybox actually ragequits rather than playing it out, and his Jiggs is the best in the business. I would estimate this is at least 80-20, and Jiggs vs anyone that has range really isn't much better (he gets equally mauled by Denti's Ivy in the same tournament). Jigglypuff simply does not have options to deal with this, the ability to weave doesn't matter when you can't weave back in in time to punish a whiffed poke. She needs something else, probably some kind of rework to her currently useless neutral and up B moves, as they are a big part of why her game is currently so limited. Perhaps jump-cancellable Rollout? I'm not sure I like the idea of her being Sonic #2, but she really does needs something.


Ganondorf largely has the same issue. Too slow and too easily kept out by anyone with range. Warlock's Foot is one way in but it's very punishable if you see it coming, and since he has no other good options, you usually will. Like Jiggs, Ganondorf is hurt by the fact that he has a completely useless B move, in this case neutral B. If this was something that could force you to approach him, like a projectile, he would be much more viable. Alternatively you could possibly allow cancelling Warlock's Foot into another B move, like BBrawl did for Captain Falcon, but this is probably a bit gimmicky.


G&W is a bit more unique. He's a bit more varied than those two, he does have projectiles and some up close options, the problem is just that he feels a bit weak in both departments. As such, I feel that of the three, he's the one whom most people would debate about being bottom tier, but I still think it's clear that he's significantly outclassed by most of the cast. As with the other two, I feel like much of the problem is that he just didn't get much love in PM. He was already near bottom tier in Melee, and he stayed largely the same while everyone around him got substantially better. He actually got huge buffs in Brawl, enough to raise him to mid tier, but they were all taken away so he's back to bottom. I really think he needs to play closer to his Brawl incarnation in order to be viable.


I think my #1 most wanted change for the next version of the game would be for these 3 to get buffs. I'm fine with the top and mid tiers staying the way they are because I think they still have room to develop / get figured out, but I feel like these 3 characters have very little room for growth the way they are now. If we can already roflstomp the best Jiggs players just by spamming Bairs, I don't see any way that the metagame for Jiggs can develop further.
 
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