Tier List Speculation

PMS | LEVEL 100 MAGIKARP

Hologram Summer Again
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strongbad's list is probably the one I agree with the most that I've seen in this thread

1. diddy is first, and the top four are in a tier by themselves
2. zss, falcon, and snake all being really good, but also better than gnw
3. ics being very decent
4. luigi is better than mario
5. olimar being better than every other "bad character"

I obviously don't agree with luigi being as low as he is and with some other order issues between b, b+, and c tier but overall this is the closest list I've seen by a top player in this thread that reflects what I think

also I think peach should be in a tier but ehh
 
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CORY

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This is my current tier list, not doing a writeup on it or anything atm.



There are some chars I could see fluctuating a lot of spots on the list (like 5 or more). I think a lot of these characters can do a lot of damage in a bracket but I have to put some above others at the end of the day.
extra likes for not abusing "s tiers"
 

Kapapanerp

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strongbad's list is probably the one I agree with the most that I've seen in this thread

1. diddy is first, and the top four are in a tier by themselves
2. zss, falcon, and snake all being really good, but also better than gnw
3. ics being very decent
4. luigi is better than mario
5. olimar being better than every other "bad character"

I obviously don't agree with luigi being as low as he is and with some other order issues between b, b+, and c tier but overall this is the closest list I've seen by a top player in this thread that reflects what I think

also I think peach should be in a tier but ehh
Luigi seems fine where he's at. I can see him moving up B+ tier some, maybe low A tier. He's good but he suffers from most of the same weaknesses he had in Melee.
 
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MTL Kyle

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that would be me, i'll make you convinced sheik is top 10 in about two sets
If I could travel outside of Canada this year, I would money match you for 100$.

I don't think RAR Bair or whatever other oddity she might've gotten from PM mechanics carries her to top 10 when there are characters that are 10x more absurd punish wise and 10x less prone of playing neutral game, unlike Sheik who at the high level is super honest and has to work hard for mixups and punishes.
 

Umbreon

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ehhhhhh sheik isnt as honest as people think. pretty much you just play tight and do good things and wait to receive a punt and then you grab them and they explode. in my exp sheik only feels "hard" when you're trying to go in (because shes not good at it) and then you get ****ed up, which you should.

besides $100 CDN is worth about a ham sandwich here.
 

MTL Kyle

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ehhhhhh sheik isnt as honest as people think.
She feels pretty honest to me, even the ~super guaranteed~ stuff is nerfed in this game. I feel privileged of being put in a meh 50/50 when I should be completely ****ed in a lot of situations

pretty much you just play tight and do good things and wait to receive a punt and then you grab them and they explode
yes. yes. erm... it's sheik, not falcon.
you gotta work your way into reacting stuff and adding layers of punish until you hit a good hit into an edgeguard, as opposed to the SuPrEmE HooHaH of JusTiCe xD !!!spOrkS!!!! and techchasing with launchers or covering more options.


in my exp sheik only feels "hard" when you're trying to go in (because shes not good at it) and then you get ****ed up, which you should.
She has to rush down tho, it's not everybody that has a masters degree on the zimmerman school of laming someone out with ****, most of the time you have to keep close quarters even in the lead so you dont get edgeguarded or so you can do power plays.

besides $100 CDN is worth about a ham sandwich here.
:'(

I wouldn't mind 100USD
Conversion is 1:1.3 now, it's not as bad as it used to LOL
 
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well the thing about sheik's throws now is you can't DI behind her, so she gets to choose where you go. In Melee if sheik grabs you, you're not guaranteed to really go offstage unless she fthrows you but that just ends up being less guaranteed into an edgeguard than just dthrowing and comboing; but the thing there is you can choose to get combo'd onstage. DIing in in melee might guarantee you eat an ftilt/utilt but those can be SDI'd/DI to just be launched further instage once you're on that side of her. In PM if sheik grabs you, and you're not a FFer/semi-FFer, you're getting combo'd regardless in the direction she wants- either a dash attack/boost grab against successful DI away or basically anything against other DIs. Plus her new throw scheme is now better on characters she couldn't chaingrab before- she almost always gets to force tech chases by the ledge thanks to dthrow and bthrow both offering the 50/50 mix-up of DI bad, get combo'd, DI well, get tech chased.

sheik also has a waaay better boost grab in PM. idk why nobody ever talks about it. in melee you don't keep your momentum during a boost grab, the thing about boost grabs there is you get the extra speed during the dash attack frames before you actually cancel into the grab. So in order to get max distance boost grab you delay your cancel by 3 frames since those are the fastest moving frames. In PM you can cancel the dash attack instantly, since you keep the momentum, making it both faster and farther reaching. You also have pivot grabs and boost pivot grabbing. PM's crouch->dash mechanics and pivot mechanics also make a short dash animation way more manageable. Obv RAR which you already mentioned is really important for aerial follow-up scenarios where she couldn't reach you with anything else. Crawl is also pretty big since being mobile with the low hurtboxes exaggerates the guessing game they have to play if they try to approach you- beating both the low profile and the uncertain positioning of crawling + realistic possibility of dashing out (dashing backwards out of crouch is a 1 frame window in melee) adds another layer to challenging her space. There's also a lot of minor stuff and a bit of new tech that improves her life overall.

Also a character being mediocre at hard-approaching isn't a viability killer- leeching space slowly against opponents who are giving it to you in order to force whiffs lets you corner people slowly as a character who thrives on protecting their immediate space with tilts/crawls/spaced aerials/grabbing whiffs.

note that I'm not really giving my opinion for or against her being in top 10, just thought I'd clarify that her throw changes/transition to PM definitely didn't cost her in a vacuum and realistically they're better suited for the new cast than her melee stuff was for the melee meta.
 
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Strong Bad

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basically all of her **** from SSBM and then some works, she doesnt have a cheap chaingrab but she's more equipped to edgeguard the cast than almost any other character, and tech mechanics make her new throws particularly great for setting up tech chases. Not carrying over momentum from air to ground when techrolling makes tech-chasing a lot more viable to do consistently. In SSBM you can dthrow them a lot, but they can always eventually DI off-stage. In PM you can b-throw if they try to go that route. She really does have strong tech-chases against a lot of chars, it doesn't need to be "infinite" in practice for it to be really effective.

Stating hyperboles like a lot of characters are 10x more absurd punish wise and stuff like that is nice, but we're concerned with how her matchup spread actually works out in the metagame. If you could perhaps propose matchups that you feel Sheik loses that contribute to her not being top 10 in your opinion, we could have an actual discussion. Until then feel free to accuse me of participating in recreational drugs for disagreeing with you, I'm sure you'll have everyone convinced in no time.

Tl;dr she's good against most of the relevant tournament threats in PM. Loses significantly to MK, loses to other chars like G&W/Fox/Wolf/ROB, has a pretty strong matchup spread otherwise.
 
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Juushichi

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Glad someone mentioned boost grab on DI away, a lot of characters simply can't get away (notably Peach, which helps the MU a lot) and it allows Sheik to take many characters to the corner much faster. She's still super solid, mostly honest (ish) and still definitely a strong character in Project M.
 

Rawkobo

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Strong Bad Strong Bad Care to share why Sonic is a better character than every other character in his tier, in your opinion?

Assuming it's actually ordered all the way through. If not I'll hold that L.
 

DoomCake196

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Zelda is so underrated.... She has great grabs, a great u throw, great air game, u smash, tilts, b move, recovery, and the best down b in the game (ba dum tsss)
 
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So, the million dollar question for me right now is: what changed about everyone's perception of Icies all of a sudden? They used to be in the bottom tiers every single time, and now people are putting them above the likes of Luigi, Ness, Samus, and Roy. I'm willing to bet money that it had something to do with Phresh's run at Big Balc, but what did everyone see that changed their minds? I find this sudden shift in opinion really interesting.
 
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Soft Serve

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So, the million dollar question for me right now is: what changed about everyone's perception of Icies all of a sudden? They used to be in the bottom tiers every single time, and now people are putting them above the likes of Luigi, Ness, Samus, and Roy. I'm willing to bet money that it had something to do with Phresh's run at Big Balc, but what did everyone see that changed their minds? I find this sudden shift in opinion really interesting.
I've always said ics were good, even back in 3.5

But I guess as of recent I'm biased because I do a good amount of help with labbing for the character on and off. They have a solid neutral game. Crazy desynchs, cast wide zero to deaths on the whole cast.

I think people are starting to respect them more, although their mu spread is still garbo tier.
 
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Soft Serve Soft Serve Yeah, all that is true. IDK, I just feel like people aren't considering the entirety of the character when they place them on a tier list. There's a reason why they aren't #1 in Melee, and it's their matchup spread. Killing Fox out of a grab at any percent doesn't matter so much in the MU because they still explode when Fox touches them. Icies counterplay is way easier and more consistent than Icies play at a high level. The same fundamental idea is true for PM. Icies can have all the cast-wide 0-deaths they want (and they do, they're all just way harder than Wobbling/Brawl infinites), that will not fix what makes their bad MUs bad. Footstool infinites have been around for a while, and d-throw d-air has existed forever. Just because we've seen Phresh doing them on the big stage doesn't mean that character is suddenly better than Samus/Ness/Ike/are at the top of A tier. I think the way people look at Icies' tier placement is kinda convoluted in general. But since we've discovered over the past couple months that even "bad" characters can take nationals in PM regardless of whatever tier list we can cook up, let's talk matchups, which might be increasingly the main factor in PM tier lists.

To break it down, the characters that Icies mains almost universally agree we lose to terribly are:
Peach, Toon Link, Zelda, Ivysaur, Fox(?)

The characters that Icies mains almost universally agree we lose to regularly are:
Fox(?), Marth, Captain Falcon, Samus, Zero Suit Samus, R.O.B, Mewtwo, Mr. Game-&-Watch, Lucas, Metaknight

The characters that Icies mains almost universally agree we beat are:
All the fatties, Sheik, Ganondorf, Kirby

And we're still figuring out the rest, but I'd guess most of them are very close to even. The last time we averaged out all of our opinions into a community matchup spread, we were below average. Does that mean I think Icies are bad? No, not at all. Even characters at the bottom of B-tier can perform. DK just won a national. Icies got 3rd at Big Balc. That information can still be reconciled with a character that, when their matchup spread is compared to the rest of the cast, is lackluster. Yes, they have cast-wide 0-deaths and crazy desyncs, but that has been true for a while and many other players have done them without seeing Phresh's results. Nobody seems to have analyzed what is tangibly different now as opposed to before. I'd need to study up on other characters' MU spreads before going more in-depth, but for now I still think it's too early in their development to call.

As far as strengths/weaknesses go, we've heard a lot about strengths (mostly their good punish game). Their primary weakness is that most of their strengths rely on using defensive play to protect a partner, but their defensive options for that specifically are for the most part really bad (poor shield, poor aerial movement, weird move coverage, and the fact that stationary blizzard is just easy to approach around for a significant amount of characters). The trend in most of the characters that they lose to is that they pick apart and separate Icies really well by abusing their poor defensive options (Fox, Captain Falcon, Lucas, R.O.B), or that they just have the tools to counter Icies normally decent approach game (Tink, Ivy, GnW, ZSS).

So I guess my opinion is that Icies are really good, but that they're lower end of B-Tier comparatively? On SB's list, I'd put them either right above or right below Ike, probably right below. But I still think they're good and can do well. Balanced game, all that. We'll see how it goes.
 
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Player -0

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I like, saw a post on Reddit talking about the 1 frame Nana throw (posted 1 day ago I think) and how it was discovered recently (tops 1 month ago?).


I thought it was brought up in like 2015 but it was like, PMDT gon' fix this.

Relevant because IC's
 
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I've kinda thought about going through a list of the chaingrab options that Icies have, and whether they're escapable or not, and how the infinites work, and how easy everything is to do/escape, but I always decided against it because I still believe that the extent of their grab punish game is more or less irrelevant in their tier list placement at this point in the meta because regardless of whether it's infinite or not it's still really good and regardless of how good it is it doesn't fix what makes their bad MUs bad, but everyone seems to be talking a lot about it so I'll break it down anyhow so that everyone understands it at least well enough to assess their punish game in a rudimentary sense. Because the character is weird, yo.

D-throw -> D-air
The Ol' Reliable chaingrab. A little rougher on huge characters, but still pretty easy to escape with SDI. Most people know that, but I'll go through the motions anyway. At its best it's a mixup between FH d-air, SH d-air, and SH reverse d-air, but my training partner can usually get out after two or three reps at absolute maximum. People who know how to SDI this do well and make Icies look laughably bad. People who do not know how to SDI this get bodied out of every grab and make Icies look broken.

Ledge/Platform Handoffs
Work on ledges and platforms (nyuk). The d-throw -> f-throw -> repeat stuff. Actual infinites, but situational. If the Icies player runs out of stage/platform, they can infinitely regrab the opponent with Popo by dashing away, then quickly dashing back and dash-grabbing. Also, the fatties and some other characters don't require the dash grab and can be handed off in place infinitely. Should lead into a kill at any percent, either by a guaranteed spike (by the way, both Climbers' f-airs are spikes, stop telling everyone that only one of them has a spike and the other has a meteor or something) or by infiniting them until kill percent and then smashing them. If the player makes Popo throw immediately after grabbing, this should be inescapable, but doing that requires the player to cause Nana to walk forward while Popo is throwing in order to be close enough to regrab, which isn't really that hard but lots of people don't do it anyway so there's going to be a mash window until people get better at it.

Footstool Chaingrab
Also called 'ogeling'. This is probably the most tragically misunderstood chaingrab of the whole lot, even by Icies mains. Many people think it's inescapable (probably because even Icies mains call it "the infinite", tsk tsk guys), but this is actually false. There are two ways to get out. One is to mix up your DI on the throw to get the Icies player to mess up. This is tricky, and it's even harder for fatties. The other, more guaranteed way to bust out is to mash. When Popo grabs the opponent after the footstool, Nana does a falling n-air due to the grab input, putting her in a certain amount of lag before she can footstool again. This is your mash window. This is technically character-dependent, since throws take longer on heavier characters, and you can't mash out during throw animations, and on the heavier side of the cast you can wait out more of Nana's endlag during the throw animation itself, but that is complicated and weird and has yet to be fully explored and maths are involved. Most players pummel while Nana is in lag, though they don't need to do this and can actually throw quicker by just waiting out the n-air endlag, so it's suboptimal. Pummeling doesn't actually put opponents in grab-stun, and neither does the n-air, so the n-air gives you the mash window and the pummel widens it. The chaingrab can be hypothetically sped up by l-cancelling the n-air, which nobody does but I can see happening in the future as we optimize our play more. Even so, mashing is way easier in PM than it is in Melee, and top players who are ready for this should be able to consistently mash out at anything below around 100%, in which case the Icies main should be getting around to killing you instead of messing around with footstools anyway. So it's not an infinite, we just call it a pseudo-infinite because of all the factors going into how to escape it.

1 Frame Brawl Infinites
The big uh-oh. So, yes, Nana can accept an input to override her grab AI on the first frame her grabbox comes out. This can be used to cause her to pummel (Perfect Nana Pummel), or to control the direction of her throw midstage or otherwise (Perfect Nana Throw). Theoretically, this would allow for inescapable 0-death chaingrabs from anywhere on the stage a la Brawl, but this is kinda different from Brawl for a few reasons. In Brawl, you could buffer the throw input and control Nana's throw direction at any point in her grab. In PM, it's a true one-frame link, so it's significantly harder. Of course, since ledge handoffs are also true infinites when performed properly, you would only need to hit the one-frame link enough times to get to a ledge for a way easier infinite, so it's also positionally dependent. But from my view, the horrific future wherein Icies perfectly infinite everyone they touch is far off, since as of right now we have easier, better options and the best of us have only been able to get 2 reps in a row tops so far. The way I see it, we don't really need to buckle down on this until most people learn to mash. Player -0 Player -0 I mentioned that Icies infinites in PM 3.6 weren't exactly a new concept, but people seem to be interested in the timeline of how long this tech been known. So here's a timeline. It was commonly known that in 3.5 there were ways to control Nana's throw direction. These methods were patched out. After 3.6 dropped, it was observed that Nana would sometimes pummel. Records are murky, but I believe I was the first one to really ask/investigate whether that could be controlled by the player. The thread's a bit old and some info is a bit off, but long story short this is how we discovered the window for overriding Nana's AI (if someone had it earlier than me please give me the heads-up, I don't want to take credit but I can't find any other mention of it). Nobody could figure out how to apply it to throws until TechNick6425 put it on Reddit around a month ago as a proof of concept. Very recently, Fudgepop cracked the frame data in his own Reddit post, and now this tech is in the spotlight. So the PMDT did fix it after 3.5, but they must have overlooked something. When I said that infinites weren't new, though, I was referring to the ledge/plat handoffs and the setups we have for them, which were known well before PNT. This tech by comparison is much less situational but much more difficult, and I foresee it being a long while before anyone can consistently apply it in tournament. And even if they do, I still don't think it will affect Icies' viability that much for reasons I've discussed above. Plus I think their viability is in a really good spot right now, regardless of their poor MUs. I'm very optimistic, and I think Icies have the capability to be top-tier as their development goes on. But IMO that development has more to do with other areas than with frame-perfect chaingrabs.

So there you go. A semi in-depth view of Icies' grab punish game as it stands right now (or at least the most important points). I really hope this helps with future analysis of the character, so that people can look a little deeper into the play and counterplay rather than assuming their grab punish game is just "good" and not going a lil deeper. I'd like to see analysis like this for Lucario counterplay, come to think of it, as everyone says that his combos are easily escapable in some circumstances but I don't know much of the specifics.

That was a lot of writing, but I love this character. Peace.
 
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PMS | LEVEL 100 MAGIKARP

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I've kinda thought about going through a list of the chaingrab options that Icies have, and whether they're escapable or not, and how the infinites work, and how easy everything is to do/escape, but I always decided against it because I still believe that the extent of their grab punish game is more or less irrelevant in their tier list placement at this point in the meta because regardless of whether it's infinite or not it's still really good and regardless of how good it is it doesn't fix what makes their bad MUs bad, but everyone seems to be talking a lot about it so I'll break it down anyhow so that everyone understands it at least well enough to assess their punish game in a rudimentary sense. Because the character is weird, yo.

D-throw -> D-air
The Ol' Reliable chaingrab. A little rougher on huge characters, but still pretty easy to escape with SDI. Most people know that, but I'll go through the motions anyway. At its best it's a mixup between FH d-air, SH d-air, and SH reverse d-air, but my training partner can usually get out after two or three reps at absolute maximum. People who know how to SDI this do well and make Icies look laughably bad. People who do not know who do SDI this get bodied out of every grab and make Icies look broken.

Ledge/Platform Handoffs
Work on ledges and platforms (nyuk). The d-throw -> f-throw -> repeat stuff. Actual infinites, but situational. If the Icies player runs out of stage/platform, they can infinitely regrab the opponent with Popo by dashing away, then quickly dashing back and dash-grabbing. Also, the fatties and some other characters don't require the dash grab and can be handed off in place infinitely. Should lead into a kill at any percent, either by a guaranteed spike (by the way, both Climbers' f-airs are spikes, stop telling everyone that only one of them has a spike and the other has a meteor or something) or by infiniting them until kill percent and then smashing them. If the player makes Popo throw immediately after grabbing, this should be inescapable, but doing that requires the player to cause Nana to walk forward while Popo is throwing in order to be close enough to regrab, which isn't really that hard but lots of people don't do it anyway so there's going to be a mash window until people get better at it.

Footstool Chaingrab
Also called 'ogeling'. This is probably the most tragically misunderstood chaingrab of the whole lot, even by Icies mains. Many people think it's inescapable (probably because even Icies mains call it "the infinite", tsk tsk guys), but this is actually false. There are two ways to get out. One is to mix up your DI on the throw to get the Icies player to mess up. This is tricky, and it's even harder for fatties. The other, more guaranteed way to bust out is to mash. When Popo grabs the opponent after the footstool, Nana does a falling n-air due to the grab input, putting her in a certain amount of lag before she can footstool again. This is your mash window. This is technically character-dependent, since throws take longer on heavier characters, and you can't mash out during throw animations, and on the heavier side of the cast you can wait out more of Nana's endlag during the throw animation itself, but that is complicated and weird and has yet to be fully explored and maths Most players pummel while Nana is in lag, though they don't need to do this and can actually throw quicker by just waiting out the n-air endlag, so it's suboptimal. Pummeling doesn't actually put opponents in grab-stun, and neither does the n-air, so the n-air gives you the window and the pummel increases it. The chaingrab can be hypothetically sped up by l-cancelling the n-air, which nobody does but I can see happening in the future as we optimize our play more. Even so, mashing is way easier in PM than it is in Melee, and top players who are ready for this should be able to consistently mash out at anything below around 100%, in which case the Icies main should be getting around to killing you instead of messing around with footstools anyway. So it's not and infinite, we just call it a pseudo-infinite because of all the factors going into how to escape it.

1 Frame Brawl Infinites
The big uh-oh. So, yes, Nana can accept an input to override her grab AI on the first frame her grabbox comes out. This can be used to cause her to pummel (Perfect Nana Pummel), or to control the direction of her throw midstage or otherwise (Perfect Nana Throw). Theoretically, this would allow for inescapable 0-death chaingrabs from anywhere on the stage a la Brawl, but this is kinda different from Brawl for a few reasons. In Brawl, you could buffer the throw input and control Nana's throw direction at any point in her grab. In PM, it's a true one-frame link, so it's significantly harder. Of course, since ledge handoffs are also true infinites when performed properly, you would only need to hit the one-frame link enough times to get to a ledge for a way easier infinite, so it's also positionally dependent. But from my view, the horrific future wherein Icies perfectly infinite everyone they touch is far off, since as of right now we have easier, better options and the best of us have only been able to get 2 reps in a row tops so far. The way I see it, we don't really need to buckle down on this until most people learn to mash. Player -0 Player -0 I mentioned that Icies infinites in PM 3.6 weren't exactly a new concept, but people seem to be interested in the timeline of how long this tech been known. So here's a timeline. It was commonly known that in 3.5 there were ways to control Nana's throw direction. These methods were patched out. After 3.6 dropped, it was observed that Nana would sometimes pummel. Records are murky, but I believe I was the first one to really ask/investigate whether that could be controlled by the player. The thread's a bit old and some info is a bit off, but long story short this is how we discovered the window for overriding Nana's AI (if someone had it earlier than me please give me the heads-up, I don't want to take credit but I can't find any other mention of it). Nobody could figure out how to apply it to throws until TechNick6425 put it on Reddit around a month ago as a proof of concept. Very recently, Fudgepop cracked the frame data in his own Reddit post, and now this tech is in the spotlight. When I said that infinites weren't new, though, I was referring to the ledge/plat handoffs and the setups we have for them, which were known well before PNT. This tech by comparison is much less situational but much more difficult, and I foresee it being a long while before anyone can consistently apply it in tournament. And even if they do, I still don't think it will affect Icies' viability that much for reasons I've discussed above. Plus I think their viability is in a really good spot right now, regardless of their poor MUs. I'm very optimistic, and I think Icies have the capability to be top-tier as their development goes on. But IMO that development has more to do with other areas than with frame-perfect chaingrabs.

So there you go. A semi in-depth view of Icies' grab punish game as it stands right now (or at least the most important points). I really hope this helps with future analysis of the character, so that people can look a little deeper into the play and counterplay rather than assuming their grab punish game is just "good" and not going a lil deeper. I'd like to see analysis like this for Lucario counterplay, come to think of it, as everyone says that his combos are easily escapable in some circumstances but I don't know much of the specifics.

That was a lot of writing, but I love this character. Peace.
so what you're telling me is that fair is a meteor
 
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Yeah, I figured Brawl was where that rumor came from. Not super important, just a pet peeve of mine really as I've heard some really good commentators say that lately and it's just more misinfo. Not a huge deal though, it's super likely that there are things I think about characters that are just flat-out wrong. Can't wait to learn what they are. Also, I'm glad you like my blarp. <3
 
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PMS | LEVEL 100 MAGIKARP

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someday when there's some actual semblance of matchup numbers across the entire cast I want to run an iterated tier list in mathematica or something

ie, starting with some base tier list model based on net total matchups, we can create a new tier list based upon the first one, by weighting each character's matchups against other characters based on their position in the first tier list, ie a good matchup against a top tier will be worth more than a ****ty matchup against a low tier

this process of finding new lists based on the previous one will eventually come to a steady state which will probably (assuming the validity of the input matchup numbers) come to be considered some sort of final endgame tierlist

(actually jk I wouldn't even need to iterate it I could just do it with matrices and eigenvectors lmao)
 
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