Tier List Speculation

[Boiko]

So we're assuming DDD loses every match up in the game, besides top tiers, and many of those losses are completely unwinnable, and every character has an equal chance of appearing in a bracket set? So, we see Fox just as often as we see Pit?

Right, "math".

Seems legit.

 

[xquqx]

It seems like the problem with these tier lists is no one really knows why a character is where, or how viable a character really is based on their position. Maybe if we try dividing up the cast with categories like these?
Mostly positive matchups, with no unwinnable ones:
Mostly even/positive match ups, with no unwinnable ones:
Mostly even/positive match ups, with a few really bad ones:
Mostly bad/even match ups, with a few really good ones:
Mostly bad match ups, with no real winnable ones:

I'd give it a shot, but it'd be hilariously inaccurate so I'm really just putting this out there with the hopes that someone better than me will pick it up.

 

[Ripple]

Scenes are so diverse right now in characters that in pools or first round I wouldn't be surprised if character diversity being huge. Things start getting chocked toward the top tier the further you go in bracket.

 

[CORY]

Mostly positive matchups, with no unwinnable ones: s tier
Mostly even/positive match ups, with no unwinnable ones: top tier
Mostly even/positive match ups, with a few really bad ones: upper/mid tier
Mostly bad/even match ups, with a few really good ones: lower/mid tier
Mostly bad match ups, with no real winnable ones: bottom tier

 

[xquqx]

I mean, that seems good and makes a lot of sense, but then most lists don't seem to follow that sort of structure at all.

 

[CORY]

i'm pretty sure most of them do, just there's disagreement about how the characters line up within those parameters.

the other issue is that anything included in the mid tier sections is really iffy and debatable, since those are a lot of 45-55 matchups, which need to be sussed out and then put against the other characters with similar matchup spreads so you can figure out who's slightly better than who.

 

[Tarul]

You can have 2 types of tier lists:

• Matchup Spread
• Metagame

Matchup spread is obvious - it's dictated by which characters have the most number of winning matchups with a slight bias towards characters with little matchup deviation (you shouldn't win matchups 70-30 and lose matchups 30-70.)

However, the metagame tier list ends up being more important. Due to the fact that people want to win, players tend to pick characters that have good matchup spreads. Then, it becomes important to pick characters that do well against these dominant "good matchup spread" characters.

As a result, characters like Dedede can be considered higher in the metagame tier list despite their poor matchup spread because they win/do well in the matchups that matter.

Right now, however, it's probably best to create a matchup spread tier list, and then create a metagame tier list.

 

[Sardonyx]

So the tier list maker thing isn't working for me so w/e

S:
A:
B:
C:
C-:
D:

As was currently being discussed, this is really based off of personal experience and what i've seen at the locals I go to. Feel free to tell me why you disagree with something.

 

[CORY]

i'm pretty sure most of them do, just there's disagreement about how the characters line up within those parameters.

the other issue is that anything included in the mid tier sections is really iffy and debatable, since those are a lot of 45-55 matchups, which need to be sussed out and then put against the other characters with similar matchup spreads so you can figure out who's slightly better than who.

X xquqx oh, except i think a lot of people misuse s-tier and replace it with just "top tier". like, s-tier should be as you described it: almost all positive matchups, no true counters, probably hard counters a bunch of relevant characters, too.

like, the only s-tiers in pm would be.... fox and wolf? maybe? i don't think fox is leagues ahead of the tier below him, but he is notably better. wolf might be, but he's still really nascent and his meta needs optimizing (so both wolf play and the meta's counter wolf play).

 

[AuraMaudeGone]

Right now, however, it's probably best to create a matchup spread tier list, and then create a metagame tier list.

Maybe it'll be finished soon :D

 

[trash?]

MU charts are already pretty shaky on the smash games w/ the viable # of characters being far smaller than PM, is the issue

 

[D e l t a]

Can't wait till the day Lucas finally gets optimized to the point that he 0-deaths everyone like ICs can or has the punish game of Fox/Falco. Then we'll finally break out of A tier and claim S tier (:

 

[didds]

You'll be waiting for awhile, offensive and defensive options are too dynamic in this game for there to be guaranteed flow chart 0 to deaths. There will always be mixup di that will force comboers to be more flexible and require some sort of di or tech read to actually get that kill hit.

Melee has been out for almost fifteen years and there's still no guaranteed 0 to deaths aside from things like dk/marth:spacies on fd, which I'm not even sure is completely guaranteed without an edgeguard.

Things get optimized, but we'll never be tas

 

[D e l t a]

You underestimate how good Lucas is ^__^

On a real note, Leffen/Armada have pushed their punish game to practically 0-deathing each other every stock. That's what I'm referring to.

 

[didds]

They've optimized a lot, but if you break down their punish games you'll see a lot of it is not guaranteed on reaction, they easily make a few small reads each time they punish.

Leffen peppering in a soft bair to extend his combo requires him to read that the opponent is preparing for survival di, tech chases require the read that they're going to tech roll rather than tech in place or vice versa, not to mention they rarely kill outright but have to read their opponent on an edgeguard.

Their optimization has lessened the amount of these reads necessary, but as long as people can control the angle at which they fly, there will be ways to escape punishes.

0 to deaths are kind of like perfect reaction tech chases, if they were actually feasible, the game would prolly be dead. A little bit of anticipation is necessary

Edit: tho I am being a bit nitpicky and get your original point

 

[Saproling]

My opinion on the current meta.

S-
A-
B-
C-
D-
E-

Might do a MU chart for Ivy later but for now I need to actually get some rest.

 

[Life]

My opinion on the meta and Ivys MU spread.

Gotcha covered.

 

[PMS | LEVEL 100 MAGIKARP]

>talk to luigi mains, ivy wins
>talk to ivy mains, matchup is even or luigi wins

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Saproling]

Gotcha covered.

You are the homey.

 

[Life]

You are the homey.

Just make sure you link directly to the image file (as in the URL that ends in .png) and not simply the imgur page.

Also Luigi beats everyone because he forces you to combo him until you get naired GG Kappa

 

[Player -0]

Also Luigi beats everyone because he forces you to combo him until you get naired

WHAT!?

When playing Kirby, comboing is against the law. Ban Luigi for forcing combos

 

[ThegreatVaporeon1]

Wanted to post my opinion of Luigi's MUs thus far. I posted this in the luigi skype group and most of them agreed (except for Pit).

http://prntscr.com/9a1lsp

Luigi's percent is on the left, the opponent char percent on the right. So Luigi GnW, for instance is 45 Luigi, 55 GnW, meaning Luigi loses.

Generally, characters that have good air mobility, juggle tools, and/or disjoint do well against Luigi or go even vs him I feel (with the exception of Sonic and DDD, but the mu isn't so bad for those two either). I don't think any character gets hard-countered by Luigi ,and that every character is capable of beating him with smart plays and good decision making. Lucario, I think, has the hardest time vs Luigi, but I don't find it to be unwinnable by any means. And Luigi doesn't really get hard countered by anyone either. Marth, Toon Link, and Fox are close but even those characters are doable. (Thank you PM up air and recovery).

Feel free to agree/disagree. And I will respond if I'm not too lazy (I will be most likely).

 

[D e l t a]

>talk to luigi mains, ivy wins
>talk to ivy mains, matchup is even or luigi wins

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Used to be an Ivy main and I still have a strong Ivy secondary. I'd say Ivy wins

Her aerials, Forward/Downtilt, and Razor leaf stuff his approaches
Bair ledge guards are easy. Similar to how easy Marth ledge guards Luigi
Most of her combos don't get interrupted by Nair because of disjoints
Fireballs get clanked or cut through by aerials
Also a floaty so Luigi gets few combos. Ergo, neutral is played more, and Ivy wins the neutral 6:4 IMO.

The MU feels like 55:45 Ivy's favor. It's rough, but do-able for either side.

 

[PMS | LEVEL 100 MAGIKARP]

Wanted to post my opinion of Luigi's MUs thus far. I posted this in the luigi skype group and most of them agreed (except for Pit).

http://prntscr.com/9a1lsp

Luigi's percent is on the left, the opponent char percent on the right. So Luigi GnW, for instance is 45 Luigi, 55 GnW, meaning Luigi loses.

Generally, characters that have good air mobility, juggle tools, and/or disjoint do well against Luigi or go even vs him I feel (with the exception of Sonic and DDD, but the mu isn't so bad for those two either). I don't think any character gets hard-countered by Luigi ,and that every character is capable of beating him with smart plays and good decision making. Lucario, I think, has the hardest time vs Luigi, but I don't find it to be unwinnable by any means. And Luigi doesn't really get hard countered by anyone either. Marth, Toon Link, and Fox are close but even those characters are doable. (Thank you PM up air and recovery).

Feel free to agree/disagree. And I will respond if I'm not too lazy (I will be most likely).

I tend to think pikachu link and zard are roughly even, if not in our favor
especially pika, abate made axe look silly in melee
meanwhile I think that ness is 50:50 and captain falcon is in marth tier

but idk I'm bad

 

[ThegreatVaporeon1]

I tend to think pikachu link and zard are roughly even, if not in our favor
especially pika, abate made axe look silly in melee
meanwhile I think that ness is 50:50 and captain falcon is in marth tier

but idk I'm bad

I can probably see pikachu and charizard as even. The reason I put them in their favor is because of how well they are able keep luigi in the air (Pika's utilt and uair chains, and zard's jab, nair and up air). But it's hard to say since both those mus dont really happen at top level. Although Anther has a winning record vs XYK I believe.
Pikachu is also a lot better in PM than in melee thanks to qac (qac tornado especially, too good), and rar bair (which makes his edgeguards much more potent).

Link however i don't see it. Bombs and disjoints give Luigi trouble getting in. And up air makes it really hard for luigi to come down. We get combos on him if we do get in but good Links are able to wall Luigi out very well.

I think with Luigi's improved neutral, edgeguards and recovery, falcon is a lot easier. In melee, he was already one of Luigi's better top tier mu's and vist and abate have mostly winning records vs the character recently. Plus our punish game on falcon is really good. Falcon does have a huge advantage in the air, however, and ways to put him in the air via nair, which is why I put it at even.
Although you might be right.

 

[jtm94]

Sup nerds. Bow to the 2D master race.

I think Ivy beats Sonic ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
After Sothe the legend went on a tear I was like my cursor never graces this character... Let me try her out again. It was some savage stuff. I tried almost every character in the game to find a way to make Sonic more enjoyable to fight against, but Ivy has been one of the first. Razor leaf shutting off entire movement lanes is just too good in the MU, but I fear that running powershield may hard cripple it. Next time I play I'll try to get more hours into the MU and ask my partner's perspective.

I think people may write off MU unfamiliarity as Sonic beating Ivy. Don't want to jump to conclusions, we'll see in time.

 

[Avro-Arrow]

I've always put Sonic as winning against Ivy.

That being said, I haven't played that match up in a long time (outside of doubles). I always found that Sonic was able to get around Ivy's walls with clean dash dancing and multiple angles of assault (full hop dairs, shffl fairs/nair/dair, dash dance dsmash/downb/sideb/jc grab). Maybe it's even, and maybe Ivy wins now. I don't know.

We all know Sonic has no trouble killing Ivy and tacking on damage. But both of these characters are a little unexplored at the moment so their interactions in the neutral game need to flesh out.

 

[AuraMaudeGone]

Wanted to post my opinion of Luigi's MUs thus far. I posted this in the luigi skype group and most of them agreed (except for Pit).

http://prntscr.com/9a1lsp

Luigi's percent is on the left, the opponent char percent on the right. So Luigi GnW, for instance is 45 Luigi, 55 GnW, meaning Luigi loses.

Generally, characters that have good air mobility, juggle tools, and/or disjoint do well against Luigi or go even vs him I feel (with the exception of Sonic and DDD, but the mu isn't so bad for those two either). I don't think any character gets hard-countered by Luigi ,and that every character is capable of beating him with smart plays and good decision making. Lucario, I think, has the hardest time vs Luigi, but I don't find it to be unwinnable by any means. And Luigi doesn't really get hard countered by anyone either. Marth, Toon Link, and Fox are close but even those characters are doable. (Thank you PM up air and recovery).

Feel free to agree/disagree. And I will respond if I'm not too lazy (I will be most likely).

Where's Diddy Kong?

 

[Xykness]

Where's Diddy Kong?

Dead center. I agree with it being a 50/50. Seagull thinks it's way in Diddy's favor though.

 

[ThegreatVaporeon1]

Where's Diddy Kong?

Sitting at 50/50.

 

[AuraMaudeGone]

Sitting at 50/50.

Yea. I saw you edited your post so I must have not refreshed at the time.
Luigi's been solid for a while now. I wonder why many people don't pick him up.

 

[PMS | LEVEL 100 MAGIKARP]

Yea. I saw you edited your post so I must have not refreshed at the time.
Luigi's been solid for a while now. I wonder why many people don't pick him up.

because he's silly

that being said, luigi is relatively popular, there's usually a token luigi in each scene

 

[Ningildo]

Why is Oli/Luigi slightly in Luigi's favor? Just wondering.

 

[Life]

Nobody wants to play a character everyone complains about because everyone wants to be cool.

(Obviously not literally zero and all respectively, but I think it has an effect.)

 

[PMS | LEVEL 100 MAGIKARP]

Why is Oli/Luigi slightly in Luigi's favor? Just wondering.

because olimar sucks

idk actually, I've only played one semi-decent olimar and I think I threestocked them
olimar really can't do much against fireball camping, doesn't get many followups that luigi can't jump or nair out and can't really lock down luigi's movement like other disjointy chars can

 

[Avro-Arrow]

Speculation here.

Weegee edge guards, weegee is good on shield against oli, and can stay out of his range and then punish.

However, olimar can control weegee's movement well (meh?) with fairs, side b and fsmashes.

Don't know how those factors balance out, or if there are a lot more factors to weigh, but let's leave this to the Luigi mains.

 

[Ningildo]

because olimar sucks

idk actually, I've only played one semi-decent olimar and I think I threestocked them
olimar really can't do much against fireball camping, doesn't get many followups that luigi can't jump or nair out and can't really lock down luigi's movement like other disjointy chars can

Oli can toss pikmin for days to play the neutral camp game along with you. Also F-smash controls a fair amount of space. Actually, I might need to experiment to see how platform F-smash works against Luigi.

Upsmash dgaf about nair and uptilt can work too with head intangibility, although going too high up for up air juggles does cause a reversal if Oli gets hit by nair.

Sounds like another "we've never played a good main of the other character" tbh.

 

[D e l t a]

I played that MU in Brawl where Oli was good and Luigi was average. It was rough then. You had to use red pikmin to counter fireballs and stuff his approaches with Fsmash (was good in Brawl), sideB, and pivot grabs. At least in PM he can deal with fireballs better, but the MU is still difficult since Luigi gets in super well and deals with Pikmin. I wouldn't doubt it being +1-2 Luigi's favor since Olimar's main keep-away tools were nerfed from Brawl and Luigi's movement only got better with wavedashing and other momentum stuff.

But that's just my take on it. Olimar definitely has options to deal with Luigi and pikmin toss is ridiculously good for ledge guarding lol.

 

[KinGly]

I played that MU in Brawl where Oli was good and Luigi was average. It was rough then. You had to use red pikmin to counter fireballs and stuff his approaches with Fsmash (was good in Brawl), sideB, and pivot grabs. At least in PM he can deal with fireballs better, but the MU is still difficult since Luigi gets in super well and deals with Pikmin. I wouldn't doubt it being +1-2 Luigi's favor since Olimar's main keep-away tools were nerfed from Brawl and Luigi's movement only got better with wavedashing and other momentum stuff.

But that's just my take on it. Olimar definitely has options to deal with Luigi and pikmin toss is ridiculously good for ledge guarding lol.

I always find it really intriguing when someone brings up a brawl matchup to explain a PM one. I suppose there's a good reason it doesn't happen often but brawl knowledge does help shine a light sometimes.

 

[ThegreatVaporeon1]

Sounds like another "we've never played a good main of the other character" tbh.

This is basically it. I don't have much experience vs olimars aside from a few ive played and beaten pretty solidly. I usually just bait out grabs/fsmashes with wavedashes and up smash pikmin that are attached to me. Olimar also has a hard time with wavedrop dair approaches since it eats through pikmin and hurts him in the process. Plus edgeguards are very easy vs him.
But I'm not too sure on this one. I can probably agree on it being even given olimar's uair and upsmash ignoring nair. And pikmin toss is pretty effective since luigi's only approach is horizontal.

Maybe other Luigis have exp on this one?