Happy birthday !
I changed my mind (subjectivity alert!).
In my opinion,
Lara's chances are 15%.
•
Ultimate collection –
With Crash Bandicoot, Lara Croft is the only one to have 2 representations in Totaku collection figures, because they are ideal for a complete and ultimate collection. Alongside the games : Mario / Super Mario Kart - Donkey Kong - The Legend of Zelda - Pokémon Red & Green - Sonic the Hedgehog - Pac-Man - Street Fighter II - Final Fantasy VII - and now Minecraft, Tomb Raider is inducted in the
World Video Game Hall of Fame as a ultimate video game.
Lara Croft would be a good reason
Smash hasn't included a 3rd-party 100% female since Bayonetta.
•
Ultimate trampling on Sony – Each 'Playstation' rep (Snake, Cloud, Bayonetta, Joker, Luminary) can be a strategic move to regain the advantage against Sony. Each Microsoft and SNK rep (Banjo, Terry, Steve) can be exclusive alliances with a collateral effect to exclude Sony further. Either way,
Smash Bros Ultimate could be a trump card against Sony. If
Ultimate has refused Altair, Heihachi, Monster Hunter, Rayman, Resident Evil rep (and Tales rep?), then this is proof that taking icons from the Playstation isn't a sufficient argument, and that
Smash is above this side. Nonetheless, along with the other advantages regarding Crash and
Lara Croft, this one can count.
•
Ultimate company to represent a heroine –
Mana /
Final Fantasy has always given great roles to female characters, from
Mystic Quest to today, through the very important roles in
FF VII,
FF XIII and
FF: The Spirits Within. About
Life is Strange, publishers wanted to change protagonists into men, but "Square is basically the only publisher that didn't want to change a single thing about the game"
*. Squenix develops/developed
Bravely Default,
Final Fantasy,
Parasite Eve and
Tomb Raider, and edits/edited
Cooking Mama, Life is Strange and
NieR, series with remarkable female protagonists compared to other companies Bamco, Capcom, Sega, SNK and Koei Tecmo. If
Smash were to receive a 2nd 3rd-party 100% female Fighter after Bayonetta, Squenix might be the ultimate company, and
Lara Croft might be having the honor of representing Squenix's feminist position.
• Other Squenix candidates aren't a threat – In my opinion, Space Invaders have a better chance, but I can (today) consider that the aliens and Lara can both come. Geno and Sora wouldn't have a better chance, but if they did, I think Squenix might have 2 reps in this pass, because Lara Croft's origin is gaijin.
• There are Lara Croft's costumes in Animal Crossing: New Horizons