So, I will say my opinion on his chances now.
I declare this music my official realtalk music from now on.
For those who read my essay, the main argument I used was that because Sakurai waited too much, it wouldn't make sense to announce him as hazard. However, we now know that it wasn't to get people hyped as we saw a denial of acknowledgement at E3.
So now, if he's an hazard, he can be revealed in potd or if there's a smash direct or some sort (I don't think it will be revealed in a regular direct that is for newcomer). If he's playable, it would more likely be announced in a regular direct or smash direct. There's still the possibility of knowing only after September 13 which is the release date in Japan.
Basically, we have absolutely no clue on how, when and what will be announced on him. This makes us lacks evidences to support both sides because at this point, both are equally possible now. In other words, not only it's still a 50/50 which could be changed with hinting evidences, but now, it''s a complete 50/50 without any hinting or solid evidences supporting one side more. What this means is that I should not EVER see one person calling anyone in denial because right now, there's no hinting towards him being playable and no for hazard that is outside the direct which I already proven how the evidences aren't solid and support both sides evenly. Actually, we should have nothing to talk about his chances now because the only hinting that could have been solid evidence (the lava being hazard) is now gone.
This leads me to the most fishy evidence ever: the demo. The only stage revealed before pyrosphere that isn't in the demo is the wiifit studio which tbh, we didn't see it a lot but we did for pyrosphere. So, if you're so confident to reveal this stage AND showing us lots of it even to a point of showing a potential hazard, why not being confident enough to have it in the demo? For some reason, I believe that it's not for development purposes but for hiding purposes. And again, this doesn't support him more being an hazard because if it was in the demo and not showed, then he would became almost confirmed playable. It really seems like on both scenario, he still didn't include it in the demo so that we don't know what would happen but it's still weird to see this.
Unfortunately, it ends here. This is pure speculation at this point and the reality is still a 50/50 without any hinting evidence towards either sides but rather a series of evidences that supports both sides evenly. Just want to remind this to tell that nobody is in denial if you are doubting but you just can't be sure it's contradicting the facts here.
But since this IS a speculation forum after all, let me state my opinion on the demo evidence (this is the only debatable evidence left so...)
I think that it's more playable than hazard now. Why? Because let's say he's an hazard, not being revealed at E3 but remember, we saw footage of him acting has an hazard on the stage with a mention to him being an hazard. We would already know that he would seem to fly with AI in the center-right and then go to attack and maybe grab people (is it confirmed that he grabbed pickachu? Need to know this).
So, we play the demo and no pyrosphere... I don't think it would make sense. See, if you have not shwon pyrosphere but rather find mii while saying the quote, then it would actually make sense to not be in the demo. We still don't know what he does and the stage hasn't being showed frequently so it would likely still be in development. But pyrosphere is one of the most showed stage (even to the point of seeing details that can't be seen normally). Showing the shadow of a potential hazard (just this is weird) and then not show the whole stage is just weird. I said that the shadow could not be because of development reasons (short explanation: they waited for months for other things before showing them) so, if it was indeed ready to be shown, why not do it?
This argument is similar to my previous one pre E3 as it tells me playable because if hazard something doesn't work if I see it. but the thing with this argument is it would still make sense because Sakurai did intentionally hold information and teased us in previous potd for weeks and even months before actually tell us what those things are. It could also have to do with dev reasons but not a video clip because we see something that video doesn't: animation. If he's animation was ready, then I see this as an intentional tease rather than him not being ready for the demo.
But there's a big problem with this: what if they just wanted to have a minimum amount of stages for demo purpose which should actually be the game really limited? It could have been but Metroid is quite an important series to nintendo so not showing how it would look is again, weird. It's a possibility but I don't think you should have put the Colosseum before pyrosphere but that's just me though.
Verdict: I believe he's playable but now, my level of doubt went from 25% to 75%. As you can see, I'm less sure about this and that is only because of the weight of my argument. The one before E3 was more solid than the one I provided here because there's a clear possibility of this not happening. Though, I can say say this for how and when he would be revealed:
Assuming he wouldn't be deconfirmed in any potd, he would be revealed in a nintendo direct or smash direct or we don't hear anything before September 13.
It's more ambiguous than before and this is because we pretty much are left almost clueless now. This unfortunately won't end until a deconfirming potd or a confirming direct or a unrevealed hidden character. The only thing this thread has to remember is this:
If you still hope for playable, he would have to survive every potd until September 13 and him being an unlockable OR until a direct that is not deconfirming him and rather confirms him.
No matter how I see this, this just turned into and endless cycle until clear evidences which we have no idea when they will come. The only thing we know is the deadline: September 13.
That's all. I should post less in this thread because it's now left in the dark and shadow (hue hue). Arguing, should be very straight forward from now on (between supporter, the haters is another story depending if they see the facts properly).