It is pretty obvious what the outcome is going to be. We even have a multitude of leaks.
Two Salromano's leak doesn't kill Ridley's chances of showing up, unless the RosalinaX leak comes true.
If the RosalinaX leak is false, we'll still have two to five characters waiting in the pipeline; at worst, Mewtwo and a retro characters due to be hinted it. If there's more, Ridley is still theoretically possible.
What kills Ridley's chances is the stage hazard, not the leaks themselves.
Gematsu/SalRomano's leaks. I doubt we are going far beyond 50 slots (I cans see 52 characters being the maximum we get).
Sakurai's wording ever since the original Pyrosphere unveil has also hinted at a Stage Hazard version of Ridley.
We should get somewhere between forty-eight to fifty-three slots. Fifty-three slots is the same rise in characters as Melee, so it's not impossible. You're basically right on slot estimate, but again, Salromano does not kill Ridley, the boss hint does.
Man, this place is going to be a warzone once Sakurai finally comes out and confirms Stage Hazardley. And people are going to once again act like no one saw him coming, when someone (myself) have been screaming about this for months on end.
Are account bets possible on this forum? I think I want to take a lot of people up on it.
You're crazy. Even I would not do something as stupid as to potentially give up my account, let alone against Ridley, a character you want by far the most. Even after Ridley's unlikelihood to be playable at this point, surely you'd not want to bet against one of your favorite character being playable.
Let's assume somehow that every veteran from Brawl returns for Smash 4, that brings it up to 44 slots. Let's also assume that every Gematsu newcomer that has not been unveiled yet is also in (Mii, Pac-Man, Palutena, Chrom, Shulk, Chorus Men), that brings it up to 50. Let's also assume we get Mewtwo back, and one of Takamaru and a DK newcomer.
Most likely though, we will be faced with some cuts (at the very least Snake, and probably Squirtle, Ivysaur, and Ike). So that opens the doors for some additional spots in a roughly 50 count roster. However, I see characters such as Mewtwo, Takamaru, and a DK newcomer as much more likely than Ridley at this point.
First off, that scenario assumes that a DK newcomer is going to happen. While I do consider a DK newcomer as likely (heck, King K. Rool is one of three characters I have on my prediction list), there is no guarantee we get more than fourteen additions (and fifteen and more are necessary for a DK rep to show up if we assume that hints for Mewtwo and a retro character do mean we're getting both). And even if we do get more than fifteen, that does not mean a DK newcomer will happen. The Salromano leak hurts the chances of a DK newcomer as much as it hurts the chances of Ridley showing up.
Also, I would not put Ike in the "probable cut" category. He's nowhere near the same level of danger of being axed as Snake, Squirtle and Ivysaur, who have evidence that they may not be returning (Snake due to Kojima saying Snake was not likely, Squirtle and Ivysaur due to Pokémon Trainer facing the axe). Ike only has speculation at best and poorly formed arguments against him. Ike could still be cut, but it's unlikely and if it does happen, it'll be due to time constraints (unless the RosalinaX leak is true).
Yeah that is what I see happening too.
Even more morbid I can see this happening when Smash 4 3DS is released:
"Ridley is being saved for as Day 1 DLC for the Wii U version is released. Yep. Sakurai is trolling us."
Newsflash: Sakurai is not trolling Ridley fans. He really is a too bigot.
I seriously doubt Sakurai cares about the size of characters. Calling Sakurai a too bigot isn't going to accomplish anything. You're better off criticizing Sakurai for saying Ridley can't work despite him being able to get three third-parties at once to get in (Sonic, Mega Man and Pac-Man) and saying shortly after Brawl that third-parties are harder than getting the game to work out.