AsbestosBlatant
Smash Journeyman
Personally, I feel that this list is pretty accurate, but I think you've underestimated the Japanese market's influence on this game. They obviously want it to sell well in both the US and Japan, so they're going to look to appeal to Japanese gamers as well, Lucas did a really good job of showing that.
Given the series popularity and stronger roots than Snake's and Bomberman's put together on the NES, MegaMan is almost a shooin for the next third party. In Japan, the series in all forms is very, very popular and has generated a lot of money for Nintendo consoles in the past. The only problem is which version they'd include. Personally, I feel it would be the original Blue Bomber if it came down to Brawl, but Capcom seems to favor X and Zero over the original, as well as the .EXE version which had colossal sales both here and abroad. Surprisingly, in Japan the DASH!/Legends series is very well liked in not-so-much-a-niche way, and I think he would also fit in pretty well. However, since it's very very unlikely that they'd include more than one playable MegaMan, we'd likely see him in his classical form. There ARE a couple downsides though, that you forgot to mention. Outside of business matters (though I guess if you wanted to, you could consider these "business"), Capcom as I said admittedly doesn't like his classical incarnation as much. Then there's the whole version popularity issue. One plus, though, is that Inafune the series creator, has a deep affection for the original, and having a Kojima-like position at Capcom, he and Sakurai could do some talking.
On to further Japanese popular games: The MOTHER series which I'm going to harp on for the next ten feet of text wall. If you include a pro for Jigglypuff as having a strong fanbase, it's almost criminal to ignore the Japanese's affection for this series. Had MOTHER3 been packaged with a DS lite instead of the GBM which they felt was a bit insulting, it would have sold titanically. Not that it did bad, mind you. The impact of that game though, seems small in comparison to the first MOTHER game which did a number on creating a firmly loyal fanbase.
Ninten, Loid, Ana, and even Teddy are quite likely, however I couldn't see Sakurai including more than one character from the first MOTHER, as US residents aren't as familiar with them. Inclusion of Ninten would have to be done carefully, as he looks like a smaller version of Ness with red socks. Personally, I feel if Ninten would be in he'd be there with Ana and Loid ala Ice Climbers +1, as they really did a nice job of having the characters compliment each other back then. The biggest con is that in America, the game is very poorly received due to being not only much much harder than Earthbound, but being discovered AFTER Earthbound, which made many players feel like they were playing a toned down version of the cult classic. The other pro is that Ninten was on Sakurai's list as well.
I'm pleased to see you included Claus, but from the delving into the community I've done, there's a few more pro's on his side: He's an absolute fan favorite in Japan and the American community seems to like him a little more than Pokey as a villain. There's also the fact that he's more like an amalgamation of Marth and Samus with a twinge of Pikachu thrown in for good measure that can glide/fly with his jetpack, rather than an underequipped psychic. In this form, he'd be easily distinguishable from Lucas who would probably have human!Claus as an alternate color scheme, which is another pro. As far as priority goes, he's pretty hard to distinguish from Ness, to be honest.
On to another villain who lately has gotten a great deal more popular: Pokey/Porky/Poki/Ambiguous Romanization. Including him in his spider mech/death bed would be a great Final Smash, considering the Giga Bowser and Land Master Final Smashes. He would also be an ideal candidate for the MOTHER series' heavy. He'd probably rely on childish things and hit and run tactics, since his character is that of a huge coward even though towards the end of Earthbound he's gutsier. The biggest con is he wasn't well received in Earthbound, in which he was annoying and generally more loathable even than Giygas. Japan seems to like him a lot, though. Also, a very very interesting rumor, which actually has a great deal of credibility. Anybody who frequents the Starmen.net forums(largest Western Earthbound/MOTHER community) would know that an admin has a very reliable mole at Nintendo. He has in the past provided tip-offs to the release of MOTHER 3, detailed information about the Franklin Badge item far before its revelation, Lucas' inclusion, as well as New Pork City being a stage. What's interesting is that he ALSO revealed Pokey WILL be playing some role in Brawl, and a seemingly large one as he mentioned some storyline details (small ones, mind you). There's also the fact he translates back and forth between MOTHER2 and 3, so it could be a toss up to either game.
I could go on and on, but those seem the most likely. I honestly don't see Sakurai ditching Ness outright. He's gotten a pretty firm fanbase and is a very unique character in Smash. Lucas so far seems to be more physical and item based, doing to Duster what Ness did to Paula, so I'm doubting they'll play TOO similarly. Just food for thought, and I honestly think you should include Pokey in the list because they've DEFINITELY started making motions towards more villains in this Smash. Given the popularity overseas, I think the MOTHER series isn't exactly low priority. It has few games, but the ones that are out have a strong fanbase. The MegaMan series should have huge priority in terms of third party.
Speaking of, reconsider the cons aspect of third parties. There's more to them than just business issues.
Given the series popularity and stronger roots than Snake's and Bomberman's put together on the NES, MegaMan is almost a shooin for the next third party. In Japan, the series in all forms is very, very popular and has generated a lot of money for Nintendo consoles in the past. The only problem is which version they'd include. Personally, I feel it would be the original Blue Bomber if it came down to Brawl, but Capcom seems to favor X and Zero over the original, as well as the .EXE version which had colossal sales both here and abroad. Surprisingly, in Japan the DASH!/Legends series is very well liked in not-so-much-a-niche way, and I think he would also fit in pretty well. However, since it's very very unlikely that they'd include more than one playable MegaMan, we'd likely see him in his classical form. There ARE a couple downsides though, that you forgot to mention. Outside of business matters (though I guess if you wanted to, you could consider these "business"), Capcom as I said admittedly doesn't like his classical incarnation as much. Then there's the whole version popularity issue. One plus, though, is that Inafune the series creator, has a deep affection for the original, and having a Kojima-like position at Capcom, he and Sakurai could do some talking.
On to further Japanese popular games: The MOTHER series which I'm going to harp on for the next ten feet of text wall. If you include a pro for Jigglypuff as having a strong fanbase, it's almost criminal to ignore the Japanese's affection for this series. Had MOTHER3 been packaged with a DS lite instead of the GBM which they felt was a bit insulting, it would have sold titanically. Not that it did bad, mind you. The impact of that game though, seems small in comparison to the first MOTHER game which did a number on creating a firmly loyal fanbase.
Ninten, Loid, Ana, and even Teddy are quite likely, however I couldn't see Sakurai including more than one character from the first MOTHER, as US residents aren't as familiar with them. Inclusion of Ninten would have to be done carefully, as he looks like a smaller version of Ness with red socks. Personally, I feel if Ninten would be in he'd be there with Ana and Loid ala Ice Climbers +1, as they really did a nice job of having the characters compliment each other back then. The biggest con is that in America, the game is very poorly received due to being not only much much harder than Earthbound, but being discovered AFTER Earthbound, which made many players feel like they were playing a toned down version of the cult classic. The other pro is that Ninten was on Sakurai's list as well.
I'm pleased to see you included Claus, but from the delving into the community I've done, there's a few more pro's on his side: He's an absolute fan favorite in Japan and the American community seems to like him a little more than Pokey as a villain. There's also the fact that he's more like an amalgamation of Marth and Samus with a twinge of Pikachu thrown in for good measure that can glide/fly with his jetpack, rather than an underequipped psychic. In this form, he'd be easily distinguishable from Lucas who would probably have human!Claus as an alternate color scheme, which is another pro. As far as priority goes, he's pretty hard to distinguish from Ness, to be honest.
On to another villain who lately has gotten a great deal more popular: Pokey/Porky/Poki/Ambiguous Romanization. Including him in his spider mech/death bed would be a great Final Smash, considering the Giga Bowser and Land Master Final Smashes. He would also be an ideal candidate for the MOTHER series' heavy. He'd probably rely on childish things and hit and run tactics, since his character is that of a huge coward even though towards the end of Earthbound he's gutsier. The biggest con is he wasn't well received in Earthbound, in which he was annoying and generally more loathable even than Giygas. Japan seems to like him a lot, though. Also, a very very interesting rumor, which actually has a great deal of credibility. Anybody who frequents the Starmen.net forums(largest Western Earthbound/MOTHER community) would know that an admin has a very reliable mole at Nintendo. He has in the past provided tip-offs to the release of MOTHER 3, detailed information about the Franklin Badge item far before its revelation, Lucas' inclusion, as well as New Pork City being a stage. What's interesting is that he ALSO revealed Pokey WILL be playing some role in Brawl, and a seemingly large one as he mentioned some storyline details (small ones, mind you). There's also the fact he translates back and forth between MOTHER2 and 3, so it could be a toss up to either game.
I could go on and on, but those seem the most likely. I honestly don't see Sakurai ditching Ness outright. He's gotten a pretty firm fanbase and is a very unique character in Smash. Lucas so far seems to be more physical and item based, doing to Duster what Ness did to Paula, so I'm doubting they'll play TOO similarly. Just food for thought, and I honestly think you should include Pokey in the list because they've DEFINITELY started making motions towards more villains in this Smash. Given the popularity overseas, I think the MOTHER series isn't exactly low priority. It has few games, but the ones that are out have a strong fanbase. The MegaMan series should have huge priority in terms of third party.
Speaking of, reconsider the cons aspect of third parties. There's more to them than just business issues.
