The Official Thread For the Sal Romano/Gematsu Leak

[ZanZero]

I was surprised. Same as I was surprised for Sonic and Snake; third party characters aren't "safe bets". Well, except maybe Pac-Man, at this point, but only because there's Namco items in the game.

Regardless of how safe you think any characters are, the first half of the leak was obviously not guessed. Anybody with a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities can work out that somebody predicting four out of six characters correctly has got to have inside information or be a wizard. I don't know why people even argue about that one. It's like guessing four numbers in a row when rolling a dice, except the dice has twenty sides and you don't know which numbers are on it.

I was surprised with Snake, because I never thought they would put third party characters into a Nintendo All Stars fighting game.
(Also let's just be honest he was like, the last third party character anyone would expect in the first place.)
I was surprised with Sonic, because holy ****ing s**t sonic, I never expected him specifically, nor did I expect two third party newcomers.
But this time around I expected Megaman.
The first 7 Megaman classics, the first 3 Megaman X games, every Megaman EXE, Zero, Starforce, and ZX installment.
Megaman 64 even. They ALLLLLL have roots in nintendo.
**** honestly that's where most of his games are.
He's not a Capcom character in a Nintendo game.
He's a Nintendo character that's owned by Capcom.
Megaman was the single third party newcomer that made sense for this new game.
Pac Man too, with the game being developed by Namco and all that.
Sakurai even mentioned something about a capcom character a while back before last E3.
So he was expected, honestly.

On the legitimacy of the first "leak", I already made my point on that. If you get enough monkeys on to a floating rock someone will get it right.
It's like those guess how many marbles are in the vase games.
It's not likely you'll win, but it happens from time to time.

 

[BelowZer0]

Do you guys think that now that the playable roster for the pro player e3 tournament was shown hurts the chance of that leaked roster? Because bowser, zero suit samus, etc were shown as unlocked

 

[Noiblade]

Do you guys think that now that the playable roster for the pro player e3 tournament was shown hurts the chance of that leaked roster? Because bowser, zero suit samus, etc were shown as unlocked

What? I highly doubt that that's the final starting roster

 

[BelowZer0]

I was assuming that the leaked roster was the best buy demo roster and if the e3 tourney roster is the same as the best buy demo roster, that would make the leaked roster fake correct?

 

[Noiblade]

I was assuming that the leaked roster was the best buy demo roster and if the e3 tourney roster is the same as the best buy demo roster, that would make the leaked roster fake correct?

Yeah. Assuming that is the best-buy roster and not a dev-kit(or what ever) But if I remember correctly some guy came out and said it was fake.

As for the tourney roster hurting this leak? I don't think it would, we've never had a tourney so I'm not sure if they're using the default roster or not. We don't even know if the default roster will be the bestbuy demo roster.

I assume that the tourney roster will differ from the demo. but idk. I see what you're saying now that I think about it though.

 

[BelowZer0]

Yeah. Assuming that is the best-buy roster and not a dev-kit(or what ever) But if I remember correctly some guy came out and said it was fake.

As for the tourney roster hurting this leak? I don't think it would, we've never had a tourney so I'm not sure if they're using the default roster or not. We don't even know if the default roster will be the bestbuy demo roster.

I assume that the tourney roster will differ from the demo. but idk. I see what you're saying now that I think about it though.

What was fake? The leaked roster?

 

[ZanZero]

Do you guys think that now that the playable roster for the pro player e3 tournament was shown hurts the chance of that leaked roster? Because bowser, zero suit samus, etc were shown as unlocked

That leaked roster was debunked a couple days ago.

 

[BelowZer0]

Oh thanks for clarifying that

 

[ZanZero]

Oh thanks for clarifying that

No problem.

 

[Noiblade]

For some reason, I can't shake the feeling that Sakurai is gonna start trolling again.
Here's a " Retro Pac-Man assist trophy" even though Pac might still be in the game.

I just dunno.

 

[Arcticbanana]

People still think you have to give Satan your soul to be able to think of WFT and look up Wii Fit's sales? lol.

Tetris is the most popular gameboy game. L-block confirmed for easy guess

 

[ScottyWK]

Tetris is the most popular gameboy game. L-block confirmed for easy guess

Difference: WFT is actually a person - a much more plausible fighter than a block.

 

[Shroob]

So.... general agreement that if this leak is correct, that Pac-Man will most likely be shown at E3?

 

[Reila]

There is no better time to announce a famous third party character like Pac-Man than E3, so yeah.

 

[ZanZero]

If Pac is in we'll be seeing him there, that's for sure.
I highly doubt he would be if they don't, yknow?

 

[EmbersToAshes]

@Luigi#1 Your post is, again, entirely based on hindsight. Nobody guessed WFT. You reference Wii Fit's sales to justify her inclusion, but you only looked up said sales in hindsight to find justification. That's a logical falacy. Had said sales been pointing at her all along, then there would have been a slew of WFT leaks and rumours. There weren't. Same old argument, same old hindsight bias. Still irrelevant and a non-argument.

 

[False Sense]

I have a question for those who believe in this leak 100%. Why were the characters leaked in two separate parts, one long after the other? And what proof is there that the second part of the leak is real?

 

[Deleted member]

I have a question for those who believe in this leak 100%. Why were the characters leaked in two separate parts, one long after the other? And what proof is there that the second part of the leak is real?

I honestly think the first one is legit, and the second one is baloney, though I wouldn't care if it were true. All the characters in the second leak seem to be safe guesses with Chorus Men thrown in to make it seem more believable, like the second leak's Wii Fit Trainer. I'm completely neutral though, and wouldn't mind if it were true. But Chrom? Really?

 

[Sebagomez]

 

[N0ble1]

What if you could achieve higher hitstun and damage with good rhythm?

 

[Wanderer from Roseyard]

@Luigi#1 Your post is, again, entirely based on hindsight. Nobody guessed WFT. You reference Wii Fit's sales to justify her inclusion, but you only looked up said sales in hindsight to find justification. That's a logical falacy. Had said sales been pointing at her all along, then there would have been a slew of WFT leaks and rumours. There weren't. Same old argument, same old hindsight bias. Still irrelevant and a non-argument.

What's also fallacious is the belief that because half of Sal's unlikely guesses came to pass, all following claims are also true. Edit: I apologize if I'm incorrectly attributing that belief to you, but it is a belief held by the core proponents of this rumor, at any rate.

Anyway, it's perplexing how many people in this thread are suggesting they didn't look up sales info on Wikipedia when trying to predict characters. High sales mean the starring character had a large audience, so I don't understand why so many believe that kind of real-world data doesn't matter.

Given how thoroughly Nintendo's history was plundered for character predictions, and the huge audience that Wii Fit reached just last gen, I find it more likely that nobody wanted WFT, rather than that nobody guessed or acknowledged Wii Fit content in Smash. I think folks get a little hyperbolic about how hard WFT was to guess, in order to make Sal's unlikely guesses seem more extraordinary than they are.

 

[ZanZero]

@Luigi#1 Your post is, again, entirely based on hindsight. Nobody guessed WFT. You reference Wii Fit's sales to justify her inclusion, but you only looked up said sales in hindsight to find justification. That's a logical falacy. Had said sales been pointing at her all along, then there would have been a slew of WFT leaks and rumours. There weren't. Same old argument, same old hindsight bias. Still irrelevant and a non-argument.

Adding on to what people have already said, I really doubt it's completely out of the realm of possibility that someone out there if not Sal himself thought,
"You know what would be a crazy stupid character? That chick from Wii Fit! Wouldn't that be nuts?!"
Seriously. With hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of smash fans out there, I don't doubt someone out there thought of this.
Then got to scream "F**KING CALLED IT!" and laugh at their non-believer friends.
I'm getting sick of this hindsight argument.
It's like the people who said Greninja only got fans once he was confirmed as playable.
I just feel like you underestimate the creative mind of the human being.

DISCLAIMER: I don't find Wii Fit Trainer to be stupid, don't get all up in arms, it was an example.
Thank you.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

IT IS POSSIBLE, that he guessed Wii Fit Trainer.

IT IS NOT LIKELY that he did.

Things we can agree on, right?

 

[ZanZero]

IT IS POSSIBLE, that he guessed Wii Fit Trainer.

IT IS NOT LIKELY that he did.

Things we can agree on, right?

Right. Agreed.

 

[Banjodorf]

Especially with Villager and Megaman on the same list for the exact same event. Was Megaman likely? I sure thought so, it depends on who you ask though. Was Villager likely? Eh...it depends on what you thought of Sakurai damning him pre-Brawl, or completely missed that or weren't there for pre-Brawl speculation.

It's possible, but the chances of it are astronomically low. Sometimes people need to get a reality check, it's not all about 1000 monkeys and 1000 typewriters. (This is directed at no one in particular.)

 

[Noiblade]

It's 6 in the morning and I made this.
Basically I took all series that Smash has ever had and put likely/possible characters on it.
There's 104 characters here, i'm not even counting other characters from other series that might make it in.
And no, before you ask, I am NOT going to list every single character here.
So let's begin, shall we?

This isn't meant to prove the leak, but to kill the argument that he just "guessed" the characters.
So as I mentioned here we have 104 Characters
Okay so let's say Sal wanted to make his "fake" leak to attract attention, right?

You're going to tell me he saw that Wii-fit is almost the number 1 selling game on the wii and he said "That'll be in there!"
The equivalent of that is him knowing that WFT is in the bag of 104+ Characters.

and then you're going to say lucky because he pulled out
4 Characters out of the bag and all of them were 4 out of the predicted 6? with each at a chance of 1/104+?

Then he guesses 5 more and get's 1 out?
I'm just saying I REALLY do not like the "He guessed it/ he studied."

It's also possible that the first leak was real and the second wasn't.

 

[papagenos]

So.... general agreement that if this leak is correct, that Pac-Man will most likely be shown at E3?

i feel like pacman and mii (and snake if hes in) would all have to be shown at E3...

pacman and snake because of third party promotablility and Mii because i ASSUME customization is involved and they'd deserve some hype showing how that will work... of course some future direct could do that as well it just seems likely to do it at E3.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

@Luigi#1 Your post is, again, entirely based on hindsight. Nobody guessed WFT. You reference Wii Fit's sales to justify her inclusion, but you only looked up said sales in hindsight to find justification. That's a logical falacy. Had said sales been pointing at her all along, then there would have been a slew of WFT leaks and rumours. There weren't. Same old argument, same old hindsight bias. Still irrelevant and a non-argument.

Sales don't mean much in the grand scale of things. This is shown by Mother having the same number of characters as FE and the DK series despite the large difference in sales between these three series, Star Fox having the same number of characters as the Kirby franchise despite differences in sales number, Mario losing a rep instead of having a number of reps more proportional to its sales success (no, Yoshi, Wario and DK don't count as Mario reps for obvious reasons) and of course Pokemon having a rep number that is very low relative to its sales success. All in Brawl. There is also of course Animal Crossing which was denied a character despite it's popularity because it was apparently too peaceful. In other words, there are more factors than sales and sales in of itself does not make either the Villager or the Wii Fit Trainer that obvious.

Anyways, regardless of one's personal opinion on Sal's leak, I am confused by the fact that people felt that a character that, despite the sales of Wii Fit, was clearly not obviously seen as overtly memorable enough to be guessed that often in the first place, was an NPC whereas the Miis were the main characters of Wii Fit, and there's never been a precedence for a curveball character from a "casual" game like Wii Fit (all the previous ones were from retro franchises and, in the case of Ness and Captain Falcon from small franchises that couldn't be considered "casual" games) Even if someone could just easily guess a Wii Fit rep, Miis would have been the more obvious guess and not WFT seeing as the Miis are the actual main characters of Wii Fit.

And then we have the Villager. The fact Animal Crossing was denied a rep in Brawl with nothing pointing towards the possibility of Sakurai doing an 180 on his opinion like that. Keep in mind this is despite sales, so popularity argument can't be used to make it seem so obvious.

Overall, I do think trying to rationalize both the Villager and the Wii Fit Trainer as something that could have easily, let alone something that might have, been guessed randomly is very pointless. The fact that Sakurai recognized that the WFT was a character that almost nobody guessed is pretty telling.

 

[False Sense]

So... Is no one going to answer the question I posed yesterday? I would really like to hear an answer from those who believe the leak can only be real.

I have a question for those who believe in this leak 100%. Why were the characters leaked in two separate parts, one long after the other? And what proof is there that the second part of the leak is real?

 

[Louie G.]

One was leaked specifically for E3.

The other was leaked simply to get other characters out there, probably.

Not sure why Mac, Pac, and Miis weren't revealed at E3 2013 though.

And it's more exciting getting characters is bursts rather than all at once, anyway.

 

[False Sense]

One was leaked specifically for E3.

The other was leaked simply to get other characters out there, probably.

Not sure why Mac, Pac, and Miis weren't revealed at E3 2013 though.

And it's more exciting getting characters is bursts rather than all at once, anyway.

If the original leak was specifically for E3, then why is it that it included characters that did not show up at E3? That would imply that the leaker did not know the exact plans for E3, in which case I would think it would be more logical for him to leak the entire roster so that, no matter what was revealed, he would be proven right.

 

[ToiseOfChoice]

Anyways, regardless of one's personal opinion on Sal's leak, I am confused by the fact that people felt that a character that, despite the sales of Wii Fit, was clearly not obviously seen as overtly memorable enough to be guessed that often in the first place, was an NPC whereas the Miis were the main characters of Wii Fit, and there's never been a precedence for a curveball character from a "casual" game like Wii Fit (all the previous ones were from retro franchises and, in the case of Ness and Captain Falcon from small franchises that couldn't be considered "casual" games) Even if someone could just easily guess a Wii Fit rep, Miis would have been the more obvious guess and not WFT seeing as the Miis are the actual main characters of Wii Fit.

And then we have the Villager. The fact Animal Crossing was denied a rep in Brawl with nothing pointing towards the possibility of Sakurai doing an 180 on his opinion like that. Keep in mind this is despite sales, so popularity argument can't be used to make it seem so obvious.

I had a collection of fan rosters back before E3 2013, and here's how it was:

- The Wii Fit scenario is as you said: everyone assumed the Miis would be representing the Wii series, unless they assumed Miis wouldn't have been playable. There might have been a joke about the trainers, but I doubt it. Someone claiming to have insider info who also guesses the unguessable more than likely has insider info.
- A decent number of rosters had Villager, most under the impression that Sakurai would change his mind. There was a lot of discussion about the logic behind saying "they can't fight" when a number of non-fighters had already been included, and consensus was that a reversal of the Iwata Asks statement was entirely possible. Some bet on it.
- Anyone who had 3rd party characters had Mega Man, so basically everyone had him.
- Everyone had Mac. Everyone.
- Pac-Man was probably in about a third of the rosters just because of Namco. Haven't seen him yet of course.
- Kinda explained Miis in the Wii Fit bit, but note that Sakurai also had a line about not including them in the same Iwata Asks. Many assume he'd reverse it due to how big Miis have been since the original Brawl drafts were composed in 2005.

I vividly remember seeing at least one or two rosters with 5/6 characters and nobody with Wii Fit Trainer. So... yeah.

 

[EmbersToAshes]

Adding on to what people have already said, I really doubt it's completely out of the realm of possibility that someone out there if not Sal himself thought,
"You know what would be a crazy stupid character? That chick from Wii Fit! Wouldn't that be nuts?!"
Seriously. With hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of smash fans out there, I don't doubt someone out there thought of this.
Then got to scream "F**KING CALLED IT!" and laugh at their non-believer friends.
I'm getting sick of this hindsight argument.
It's like the people who said Greninja only got fans once he was confirmed as playable.
I just feel like you underestimate the creative mind of the human being.

DISCLAIMER: I don't find Wii Fit Trainer to be stupid, don't get all up in arms, it was an example.
Thank you.

You don't like the hindsight argument because there's no counter to it. The justification of characters such as WFT and Villager have all come through copious application of hindsight, which is evident given that nobody guessed them before the leak. Had there been several leaks including said characters my argument would he invalid. There weren't. If your argument that sales and other contributing factors make them easy guesses were valid, we'd've seen said guesses. We didn't. Hindsight makes not an argument. And that's all people seem to be able to use here.

 

[Bauske]

So... Is no one going to answer the question I posed yesterday? I would really like to hear an answer from those who believe the leak can only be real.

I know it's hard because there are so many pages to this thread, but your question has been answered about a dozen times before.

The reasoning is that, given that the leaker probably works for or has ties to Nintendo/Namco, revealing everything outright would make them easily identifiable as a leaker, and thus more likely to lose their jobs. Revealing information in spurts rather than all at once helps protect them and their job, as confidential information becomes more well-known throughout the development team over time, meaning more people know, and it's harder to target a specific individual.

If the original leak was specifically for E3, then why is it that it included characters that did not show up at E3? That would imply that the leaker did not know the exact plans for E3, in which case I would think it would be more logical for him to leak the entire roster so that, no matter what was revealed, he would be proven right.

Again, as my point above states, that's not a logical situation at all. Revealing everything would sure be awesome for us, but for him, as a person with a job and a future, would be pretty much the nail in his career coffin. They make worker sign non disclosure agreements all the time, stating that if they leak this information to outside sources before specific time periods, they can be charged heavy fines and terminated.

Leaking in small doses makes it harder to track, and also makes it seem more like a personal prediction than a leak, which is why there's so much debate on this leak in the first place. I believe the leaker is giving us correct info, but because of the nature of his leaks and trying to protect his identity and job, it's coming across as personal predictions to some.

Do I believe this leak 100%? No. That would be foolish. But I do believe it for the most part. There's no evidence against this leak. None. Just speculation and hindsight bias. The only evidence we have right now is he's revealed 11 characters, 5 of which have been confirmed and the other 6 who haven't been deconfirmed.

 

[False Sense]

I know it's hard because there are so many pages to this thread, but your question has been answered about a dozen times before.

The reasoning is that, given that the leaker probably works for or has ties to Nintendo/Namco, revealing everything outright would make them easily identifiable as a leaker, and thus more likely to lose their jobs. Revealing information in spurts rather than all at once helps protect them and their job, as confidential information becomes more well-known throughout the development team over time, meaning more people know, and it's harder to target a specific individual.

I suppose. Although I would think someone who really didn't want to lose their job wouldn't do something like that, but whatever.

Though that doesn't exactly answer the second question I had; what proof is there that the second part of the leak is real? The fact that it didn't come all at once makes it very possible that the "leaker" made up the second half following the success of the first half.

 

[Bauske]

I suppose. Although I would think someone who really didn't want to lose their job wouldn't do something like that, but whatever.

Though that doesn't exactly answer the second question I had; what proof is there that the second part of the leak is real? The fact that it didn't come all at once makes it very possible that the "leaker" made up the second half following the success of the first half.

Okay, sure, maybe. Let's turn that around. What proof is there that the second part of the leak is fake? One of the characters got confirmed, even if it was vague, and none of the rest have been deconfirmed.

 

[False Sense]

Okay, sure, maybe. Let's turn that around. What proof is there that the second part of the leak is fake? One of the characters got confirmed, even if it was vague, and none of the rest have been deconfirmed.

You do realize that sort of logic doesn't work, right? If there were proof that the second part of the leak was fake, we wouldn't be discussing it. But at the same time, just because it can't be disproven doesn't automatically make it true.

 

[Morbi]

I suppose. Although I would think someone who really didn't want to lose their job wouldn't do something like that, but whatever.

Though that doesn't exactly answer the second question I had; what proof is there that the second part of the leak is real? The fact that it didn't come all at once makes it very possible that the "leaker" made up the second half following the success of the first half.

Episode V: The Logic Strikes Back!

Okay, sure, maybe. Let's turn that around. What proof is there that the second part of the leak is fake? One of the characters got confirmed, even if it was vague, and none of the rest have been deconfirmed.

Which character got confirmed? Pokemon from X and Y? I love Pokemon from X and Y, he happens to be one of my favorites. (Pro Tip: No characters from the second "leak" were confirmed as of current).

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I had a collection of fan rosters back before E3 2013, and here's how it was:

- The Wii Fit scenario is as you said: everyone assumed the Miis would be representing the Wii series, unless they assumed Miis wouldn't have been playable. There might have been a joke about the trainers, but I doubt it. Someone claiming to have insider info who also guesses the unguessable more than likely has insider info.
- A decent number of rosters had Villager, most under the impression that Sakurai would change his mind. There was a lot of discussion about the logic behind saying "they can't fight" when a number of non-fighters had already been included, and consensus was that a reversal of the Iwata Asks statement was entirely possible. Some bet on it.
- Anyone who had 3rd party characters had Mega Man, so basically everyone had him.
- Everyone had Mac. Everyone.
- Pac-Man was probably in about a third of the rosters just because of Namco. Haven't seen him yet of course.
- Kinda explained Miis in the Wii Fit bit, but note that Sakurai also had a line about not including them in the same Iwata Asks. Many assume he'd reverse it due to how big Miis have been since the original Brawl drafts were composed in 2005.

I vividly remember seeing at least one or two rosters with 5/6 characters and nobody with Wii Fit Trainer. So... yeah.

That's a pretty interesting information. I guess the Villager may not have been that hard to predict in the end

As for Little Mac, Pac-Man and the Miis- these are characters that I never thought either depended on leaks to be believable, nor add to the credibility of any leaks as I already saw these characters as very likely regardless of whether or not I believed Sal. Little Mac's been heavily requested in the West, represents a major franchise and that stage was a stage I knew was obviously based off Punch-Out. Pac-Man fits into the whole special case thing in regards to third-party characters, being a legendary icon. Miis represents a huge part of Nintendo history, being symbolic of the casual games that were on Wii and the Miis are so heavily used in many, many games.

 

[ZanZero]

You don't like the hindsight argument because there's no counter to it. The justification of characters such as WFT and Villager have all come through copious application of hindsight, which is evident given that nobody guessed them before the leak. Had there been several leaks including said characters my argument would he invalid. There weren't. If your argument that sales and other contributing factors make them easy guesses were valid, we'd've seen said guesses. We didn't. Hindsight makes not an argument. And that's all people seem to be able to use here.

I don't like the hindsight "argument" because it's ignorant, simple as that.
Just because YOU didn't have the foresight to guess it doesn't mean someone else didn't.
I personally believe the first leak, yknow the one with Wii Fit Trainer?
But I do think Sal's second leak is a bunch of bulls**t.