today, i came to a realization
smash is very similar to poker. when there is a determination of skill, how does it differ from luck?
when a hit is achieved, what is the cause, skill or luck? actually, luck is not a factor in smash.
much like poker, smash scenarios present inherent positions of weakness and strength. interpreting the relative positions is a skill within the game. knowing when to attack or retreat is something that comes with experience. but say somehow you're in an edgeguarding position. regardless of how you came to it, you are favored. in this case, your only worry is to take advantage. similarly in poker, if you come across aces, the concern should not lie with whether the aces came from luck or skill (can you make an argument for any case?) but should be to maximize the advantage you possess
smash contains absolutes, this is true. an attack has certain knockback, frames, etc etc.
but can you really account for the variables at hand? much like the physics of pool balls on the felt, simplicity cannot explain the actual progression of such movements. in smash, irregularities such as di (the frame of reaction) and spacing (think about how sensitive spacing is) make for very hard to predict scenarios (and also contributes to the "error")
if i space a move on shield, predicting my distance for spacing should come as a read on his reaction afterwards, how much he shield di's, etc etc that even something like spacing which could be interpreted as linear and one dimensional actually takes on levels of statistics in guessing, reads, and mixups.
as such, we can again arrive at the comparison of poker. when the positions are hidden through the mask of the mind, it comes down not only to a read of prediction but also a statistical analysis of probability. because of this interpretation of what is commonly termed "luck," i figure that luck does not exist in melee in any way shape or form