Well then. Where does this leave us now?
I won't deny it, there're a few ways in which Zacian and Zamazenta's chances took a hit here:
- Getting a two-in-one character now lowers the odds that one of the remaining fighters will be another. This limits our potential arguments for uniqueness and might restrict our build options to just one of the pair fighting as the vanguard while the other only jumps in to assist with certain moves.
- Mythra seems to be fast both in movement and frame data, another trait that intrudes on Zacian in particular and makes it tougher for her to stand out.
- And obviously, now we're down to just two spots left, and both lean toward character choices other than us. Fighter #10 looks primed for an E3 (or counterpart) reveal and is probably one more guest fighter. Fighter #11 is probably another deliberately recent first party in the vein of Byleth.
However...we also
gained ground in a few ways:
- Another first party newcomer reaffirms that Nintendo characters are still 100% on the table at any time.
- With Ultimate doubling back to grab newcomers from both ARMS and Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Sword & Shield stick out now as the biggest recent Nintendo titles to not have significant content in the game.
- Min Min, Sephiroth, and now Pyra & Mythra show us Sakurai et al are much more willing to choose less conventional newcomers than in the first Pass or the base game.
- We now have another case of a Spirit later becoming playable.
- And, the surprise announcement that the Breath of the Wild sequel still isn't in a presentable state, along will all the titles being pushed back to 2022, severely limits the options for a new, very recent first party character to fit as Fighter #11. The odds of us getting a new Pokémon there have gone up significantly, simply because there are so few other options. And since we've reason to believe Corrin and Byleth were locked in far later than anyone else in their respective batches of DLC, the same thing would happen here.
Basically,
I wouldn't be surprised if they've only started deciding who to take as Fighter #11 right about now. Far beyond any point where the SwSh Spirit Event could've had any effect.
For now, how about we brainstorm? How could a moveset for Zacian and/or Zamazenta be built that'd still feel completely fresh and interesting even
with there being a different stance-changing swordfighter duo in the game now?
To be fair, if you look at the animations for Pyra and Myrthra’s normals, a good few of them are familiar to those that play swordfighters in Smash already, with the familiar swings and stabs seen throughout the Marth-spectrum of fighters.
This shows that to Sakurai, the sword moveset has far from reached the point where its worn out and if retreaded, not everything needs to be fresh and unique. Putting a twist on the moveset (The swap mechanic) is deemed enough to pass the Aegis off as a fully realized moveset.
Furthermore, the Aegis is a stance-fighter, having the same set shared but with different attributes. (Not unlike a certain fighter in Age of Calamity). The Legendary Knights never could do this, considering Zamazenta doesn’t use a sword, so a tag-team mechanic on them would always have to be different because of it.
In fact, having the Aegis out of the way now means that we can fully theorize about the stance-mechanic, without having to wonder how a possible Xenoblade 2 fighter might go around it. Between Rex and the different blades, there was a lot of ways it could be implemented, and now we know about which one they chose.
The conspiracy theorist in me might even believe that if they found an angle for the Aegis moveset that they liked, but couldn’t fit on this specific character, they might try again on another duo character. There’s bound to be ideas that didn’t make the cut.
I think a way to go is to make Zacian/Zamazenta more distinct among swordfighters at least is to capitalize off of their large frames and make them heavyweights. Being agile is different from being quick, This means that Zacian could have some start-up on his moves like Cloud, low acceleration in his mobility and large frame to make up for his sword range, decent power, moves with little endlag (Meta Knight’s Forward Smash-y), high weight and high top speed.
If you trap them, Zacian is going to feel clunky because of the start-up on his moves and mobility and his large frame, but good luck getting him in disadvantage state in the first place, because if he has time to accelerate, he’s going places with oppressive range and end lag on his sword strikes, high speed, possibly great recovery and high weight.
In a nutshell, he’d be a faster and possibly stronger Cloud all around (now including functional recovery), at the expense of being a bit closer to Ridley in sheer size.
And yes, this Direct also alleviates some worries about Nintendo going in guns blazing with new DK, new Kirby and other first party series ripe for the promotion, but it
seems like most of the cards are played and they‘re not looking all that awful. Splatoon 3 and BoTW possibly being 2022 also casts some doubt on the viability of characters from those games, which now depends on the willingness of the team to get ahead of the
release of a game or to let an earlier incarnation of a character do double-duty as mascot for the new game, such as Octolings or one of the Champions.
And of course, there;s the question whether the last DLC slot will truly be in the same vein as Corrin. We don’t know how far out the next Smash is, whereas Smash 4 and Ultimate was continuous development. It might be that these are different scenarios and that we do indeed end on a fighter chosen for other reasons than timing.
On the other hand, we also don’t know whether the next pack is chosen based on some arbitrary factor like E3-y-ness. It’s possible E3 is a double reveal of both the “underwhelming first party” at the start and ending on the final Smash Bros Ultimate DLC character to be some “hype-bringer”. Overall, I’d say that it’s unlikely to end this pass on a streak of three first party fighters, but there is no inherent reason to say either 10 or 11 will go one way or another in the first party-third party dichotomy. Both have reasons to be either first party or third party.