I kinda doubt KOS-MOS because generally Smash prefers the biggest possible characters a company can offer (Note that it's character
s, plural; The exact biggest character is often subjective and hard to determine, since they each have their own merits.) There's I theory I wrote about it
Here's a theory I've been thinking about for a little.
Biggest Options Theory
Biggest Options Theory is simple: That each third-party character is
one of (Though not necessarily
the) biggest options their company has to offer. There's two definitions of "biggest option" here: Impact and recognizability in the overall industry, and popularity in the Smash fanbase.
Let's look at the third-parties so far:
- - From arguably the most well-known stealth game and highly influential for storytelling (Though he could've been an exception due to being a Kojima request, he still fits regardless)
- - Was Mario's rival back in the day, immensely popular request, Sega's mascot
- - NES legend, one of the biggest requests back in the Smash 4 days, one of Capcom's mascots (Or at least he was)
- - Easily one of the most recognizable video game characters period, Bamco's mascot
- - Mr. Fighting Game himself, one of Capcom's mascots
- - Mr. JRPG, cited as being having the most requests for a Final Fantasy character
- - A potential exception; She was supposedly chosen for the ballot, which would give her the edge in popularity, but there's also the possibility that Nintendo chose her in advance to push her series, which Nintendo helped fund.
- - NES star, did well on the ballot
- - Sort of an exception; He was an easy clone who Simon took some moves from. Though, he's basically just a Simon alt so we can count him out.
- - The original Echo Fighter; Though, as a borderline-semiclone, he's still fairly easy to make compared to most of the fighters listed here, so we could count him out too
- - A recent success, he's been heavily pushed by Sega lately. If we narrow it down to Atlus specifically, his home series is easily their biggest IP (Sorry SMT)
- - Representative for the defining JRPG, a cultural phenomenon in Japan
- - Extremely popular, constantly topping polls since the Melee era. If we go for Rare specifically, I think they're easily their most recognizable creation
- - The mascot of SNK as a whole, despite his lack of relevance in recent games.
- - The biggest game ever
- - One of the most iconic villains in gaming, and has one of the most iconic boss themes to boot
Based on the 14-16 characters so far, we can predict that future third-party characters will also be the from the biggest games in a company's selection and/or the most frequently-requested characters they own.
I also compiled a list of characters who would fit under that theory
Going off of this, I'm going to try and compile a list of each represented companies' biggest possible series. Please do review this list; I want to make sure it's accurate.
Bold is already represented in the base game,
italics are a maybe,
strikethrough has post-launch content. Fighters who got a DLC pack. are strikethrough'd and bolded, as are companies who got a pack in FP2 specifically. I'll take interviews and such into account later.
Konami
- Metal Gear
- Metal Gear Rising Revengeance
- Castlevania - Already covered, very extensively I must add. Not sure there's much left that count feasibly be added at this point.
Bomberman
- Frogger
- Contra
- Silent Hill
Sega (Atlus)
- Sonic the Hedgehog
- Eggman Empire - Not necessarily a subseries or game, but is a side of the series that hasn't been covered yet
Persona
- Shin Megami Tensei - Ironic that it's listed under Pesona, when it's the other way around
- Yakuza
- Puyo Puyo
- Sakura Wars
Capcom
- Mega Man
Mega Man X
Mega Man Battle Network
- Mega Man Legends
- Street Fighter
- Street Fighter 3: Third Strike
- Street Fighter IV
- Monster Hunter
- Only a boss; Full pack isn't out of the running
- Monster Hunter Rise
Resident Evil, also known as Biohazard in Japan...
- Devil May Cry
- Ace Attorney
Bandai-Namco
- Pac-Man
Tekken
- Tales
- Dark Souls
- Digimon?
Square Enix (Taito)
Final Fantasy
Dragon Quest
- Kingdom Hearts?
- Tomb Raider
- Nier: Automata
- Space Invaders
- Bubble Bobble
Microsoft (Rare, various indies)
Banjo-Kazooie
Minecraft
Cuphead?
- Halo
- Gears of War
SNK
Fatal Fury
Samurai Shodown
Metal Slug
Again, feel free to review this list and give me some suggestions. I want to make this one a definitive list.
I don't think Xenosaga would really fit the biggest possible options for Bandai-Namco. The best it could manage was one million, it's been dormant for a long time and Harada(?) flat-out stated Xenosaga HD wouldn't be profitable. She shows up a lot in other games, yes, but Xenosaga itself just isn't on that level.
KOS-MOS is in a similar situation to Morrigan from Darkstalkers in that she has a lot of cameo appearances but is from a series that is all but forgotten beyond dedicated circles, and Xenosaga is like Banjo-Kazooie, being a series owned by one company but is more popular with fans of another. Thing is, Banjo and Kazooie got in because of their massive,
massive amount of fan support, and while KOS-MOS has her fans, her support isn't anywhere close to Banjo's. Not to be the party pooper, but when sandwiched between massive Bandai-Namco franchises and Nintendo's own, more relevant Xenoblade properties, KOS-MOS' chances just don't look that bright.