The idea that this is good Economic policy is absurd. Regardless if "That's the way it is." That's not good enough, we shouldn't be pragmatists and just throw our hands up and go. "OH WOE IS ME!"
What I meant by That's the way it is, is that that's the economic truth. That people, somehow, being removed from an economic situation that has a surplus of human capital is a good thing for the economy. Taking all the troops out now would
1. put the troops in a bad position, giving them little to no opportunity to return to normal life as they will likely not have a job to return to, fall under stress as they fail to support their families, adding to their already large mental struggle.
2. cause unemployment numbers to increase and the market value of human capital to fall even lower than it already is currently, slowing our economic recovery.
Factories have been out of business long before Bush came into office. Fact of the matter is most of our employed workers came from small business owners. Not factories, not corporate america, but small business.
A Blue Collar base is largely needed in an economy, other wise it becomes a self eating machine of service people providing a service for other service workers. Blue collar workers, be they farmers, steel workers, carpenters, etc. these are the backbone of an economic system that produces a nations GDP.
Here's the problem with the claim of making Afghanistan and Iraq developed countries. It's never worked in history why is it going to work now? We destabilized that region. Afghanistan is lost, and Iraq is no way going to become a flourishing democracy.
The issue is, any previous attempts failed because of sheer lack of organization and funding. There is no reason why they couldn't. Look at how successful the Europeans were with The Shah in Iran, even if his son was over thrown, then the revolution diverted by religious extremist. The first Shah and the western powers were very successful in rebuilding Iran, and there should be no reason that Afghanistan shouldn't work the same. Charlie Wilson's war does a great job giving an example of one of these thwarted attempts.
Secondly, democracy, not important here. What is truly important is getting Afghanistan to tap into their natural resourced, human capital, and start to contribute to the global economy scene, increasing the worlds capital, causing prices for things to lower. The farms of opium can easily be converted to fields of something more productive such as wheat or rice, something the growing world will always be in need of.
This isn't the 1940's. That's the problem with the argument, I don't know how many times I have to say it, but the way we waged war in the 40's and the way we do it today are completely different. By going to war in the 40's you could employ the entire country behind it because the war market only existed during war times.
Again, read the essay. It states that such a war in modern day times is no longer possible, though only partially for the reasons you state. War has much worse negative effects than what you seem to realize. It isn't just the spending that is the problem, its that you are (in most cases) fighting with someone who provides your economy with much needed capital of some sort, which is why going to war with Iran would be completely infeasible.
Those contracts have little effect on the Economy. You seem to think that employing these small groups of people are going to stop the bleeding or at least help to stop it. Unless you have a LARGE employment plan those little bursts of employment are going to do jack.
How many do you think are in Afghanistan?
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2595/3941254968_7f70fbd209_b.jpg
61 thousand troops
74 thousand private contractors
40 for the surge
that's 150 thousand US forces.
And that's just in Afghanistan.
Now, adding these forces back to the work force, you decrease human capital, which lowers average pay, lowers the demand for workers, and lowers the over all value of human capital.
Clearly enough to make a marginally sizable impact to our economy.
Not all economic effects are game changing. You can't simply discredit something for not being a huge game changer. People don't denies that Wavedashing despite L canceling having a huger effect on Melee.