lol lucario is smart enough to let aerials take care of gimping, cape should really only be a real problem. I'd think 55:45 lucario's favor at best for mario, No way is it going to be a simple "fireball" or mere aerial gimp, since we have good answers to that. ES is underrated, even though it is "gimpable" by ledge hog, BAS/fair helps ward people off, and unlike Ivy, we have the ability to get onto the stage with it from practically any angle. You guys obviously know about wall cling, so that won't be discussed to great detail. the problem with trying to edgehog is even though you have cape stalls and such, you have to realise that dair can be used similarly to marth's DB to stall as well, than go for a DJ -> BAS, fair, or uair, and since these are fast, you don't have to commit much to getting them to stop. The other problem with bringing up this "gimp game" is that lucario can do the same, fair strings, bair, AS, dair, and even uair will do just as good a job. While they both can gimp eachother pretty well, the difference is that lucario has a better onstage game, which consists of a much more potent aerial game with nice disjoints, plus a nice projectile that eats AD, spotdodge, and has nice shieldstun stats. On top of that, gay disjoints (did you know that aura bursts have the same properties as MK's sword, with what we call "transcendent priority", or essentially infinite priority? The only difference is, attacking luca's hurtbox cancels this effect).
There's some essential debunking, but this is why imo there is no way this is going to be dead even.
My verdict looking at the best possible metagame characteristics of both is going to be 55:45, even 60:40. This is a matchup that is still dependent more on player skill than stage/character traits, but it is still going to be an uphill battle for mario.