Who would we say are the Top 5 1st and 3rd party characters still wanted at this point?
Waluigi, Isaac, Geno, Dixie...who else from Nintendo history? Bandana Dee, maybe? Some more Zelda characters?
For other third parties, Phoenix Wright is a huge one. Sora, Doomslayer, Dante (The slow release of DMC games on the eShop is raising my hopes on this one) and...?
I just came back on the different polls. We need to take into account that Sakurai is still slightly more picking Japanese choices. Don't forget that these polls may be biased against the already known AT at their time.
As first party, things to note:
- in Japan, Rex and BWD are on top. Both have less, but still strong, support in the west.
- in west, Isaac is strong. Like Rex and BWD but reversed, he is still recognized by Japan, but at a lower place.
- Geno is a weird case, because he has more support in West than in Japan, but in one case, it was reversed. In my personal opinion, he is still a niche.
- Paper Mario, Dixie, Ashley and Skull Kid have some supports everywhere. However, for Paper Mario and Skull Kid, it seems it was mostly a bandwagon because we don't see them anymore nowadays.
- Magolor is a Japan thing
- Waluigi is not in these polls but probably because we was already known as a trophy. He may be anywhere in term of raw support.
As of third party, it's way more dividing, except for a few characters :
- Sora and Steve are really strong in Japan, and quite strong in the west
- Crash is liked everywhere
- the Hunter, Lloyd, Phoenix are known by everyone but lower in the polls
- Spyro, Rayman, Doomguy, Amateratsu and Shantae are quite strong in the west, but nowhere to be seen in Japan
- 2B is strong in Japan, but not in the west
- other current discussed characters like Ryu Hayabusa, Heihachi, Dante or Master chief are low or non existant in these polls, both in Japan and the west.
Like I said, and people on the internet often forget that but Sakurai is slightly biased toward Japan. It happened we got characters known in Japan but unknown in the west, the opposite didn't happened. However, it happened we got characters more liked by the west than Japan (Mac, Ridley, B&K), but they were all still known in Japan.
In my opinion, characters mostly unknown in Japan are out. That would be the case for several third party (Rayman, Master chief, Shantae, Spyro, Doomguy, and so on).
The top contender, still IMO, as third parties are
Sora, Steve, Crash, the Hunter, Lloyd and Phoenix. Ryu Hayabusa have a lot of traction nowadays but it's mostly based on rumors; he doesn't seem to be wanted. Doomguy is also discussed a lot but Japan doesn't seem to want him, I don't see him coming.
As first parties, it's harder to tell. Like I said, Paper Mario and Skull Kid were a bandwagon: let's remove them. What remains is
Rex, Waluigi, BWD, Isaac, Geno and Ashley, in any order.
Hard to tell what's coming and what's not coming. My personal feeling is that the 5th of the pass will one of the third party I listed, minus Sora (who could come in the future however).
If Sakurai want to expand the world of Smash, in the first parties, only Isaac is from a serie with no fighters. If we have 5 new first parties characters as DLC, I feel he is a lock. We just have to believe future DLC won't be only third parties.