Sunrise, Sunset - Isaac for Smash Ultimate #GoldenSunday

[SharkLord]

Well, they might pass us because we'll have graduated from newcomer speculation soon enough

I would hope so. Personally, I'm expecting Isaac to break free, Shantae to graduate to second place, and Geno to remain where he is.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

I've probably answered this question more times than I care to count at this point, so forgive my bluntness, but no, I won't be going back to Rate Their Chances. I honestly wish I had just stopped after Season 1, once the base-roster was released, because predicting DLC fighters just felt like milking the series for all that it was worth.

I can't, in good conscience, release any more episodes when I don't have the motivation, drive or desire to research the current climate/trends in the Smash Community. There are tons of other creators who are doing their own Rate Their Chances variants, so I'd suggest checking their content out if you're looking for something to pass the time in the drought.

I'm just here for Isaac now, just like I was when I made my first Isaac video.

It's fine man, I understand. It's your decision to do what you want and I respect that.

 

[Monue]

So! I'm sure this has been brought up at several points throughout the long history of the thread, but for the sake of conversation and since I'm new around here, I was curious: Assuming Isaac made it into Smash, where would you like his stage to take place, and what would you want it to include if you had the option to do whatever (i.e. hazards, cameos, transformations, ect).

 

[SharkLord]

So! I'm sure this has been brought up at several points throughout the long history of the thread, but for the sake of conversation and since I'm new around here, I was curious: Assuming Isaac made it into Smash, where would you like his stage to take place, and what would you want it to include if you had the option to do whatever (i.e. hazards, cameos, transformations, ect).

I'm new here as well, so I wouldn't really know. I've mostly planned out a moveset and that's about it. That being said, Venus Lighthouse seems to be the most iconic Golden Sun location.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

So! I'm sure this has been brought up at several points throughout the long history of the thread, but for the sake of conversation and since I'm new around here, I was curious: Assuming Isaac made it into Smash, where would you like his stage to take place, and what would you want it to include if you had the option to do whatever (i.e. hazards, cameos, transformations, ect).

I would want Venus Lighthouse as the stage.

I'd also like to see Saturos & Menardi appear as bosses/stage hazards who attack separately at first but eventually combine into Fusion Dragon.

Ideally I'd also like to see cameos for other party members (Garet, Mia, Ivan, Jenna, Sheba, Piers and Felix, if he's not an alt costume) and also Kraden/Alex. I say ideally because I doubt they'd go to that much trouble modelling all of those characters for cameos....unless they were able to take them directly from the Golden Sun remakes.

Maybe also have the four different djinn types fly around in the background (like the jinjos on Spiral Mountain)

Also this is a small thing but I think it would be neat if we could see Vale and Mt. Aleph in the background. Since the stage is set on a lighthouse it would be a good opportunity to have some locations appear in the background as cameos. (Maybe they could have Kolima Forest appear somewhere too.....not sure how close Kolima is to Venus Lighthouse)

 

[jweb23]

So! I'm sure this has been brought up at several points throughout the long history of the thread, but for the sake of conversation and since I'm new around here, I was curious: Assuming Isaac made it into Smash, where would you like his stage to take place, and what would you want it to include if you had the option to do whatever (i.e. hazards, cameos, transformations, ect).

I feel the obvious answer is the Venus Lighthouse, but for me, the best thing to do stage wise is to have the stage be the Lemurian Ship with the Wings of Anemos attached.

That way you can have the ship flying around and it can get close to the different lighthouses and depending on which lighthouse, certain elemental hazards can appear. And if I’m remembering correctly, the ship couldn’t constantly fly as the group’s Psynergy kept it in the air. So I think it would be cool for the ship to rest in the Karagol Sea. That way there can be a stage boss which would of course be the Kraken boss.

That does seem like a bit much for a DLC fighter but it’s what I would like lol. It’s most likely gonna be just Venus Lighthouse if Isaac makes it in.

 

[SharkLord]

I would want Venus Lighthouse as the stage.

I'd also like to see Saturos & Menardi appear as bosses/stage hazards who attack separately at first but eventually combine into Fusion Dragon.

Ideally I'd also like to see cameos for other party members (Garet, Mia, Ivan, Jenna, Sheba, Piers and Felix, if he's not an alt costume) and also Kraden/Alex. I say ideally because I doubt they'd go to that much trouble modelling all of those characters for cameos....unless they were able to take them directly from the Golden Sun remakes.

Maybe also have the four different djinn types fly around in the background (like the jinjos on Spiral Mountain)

Also this is a small thing but I think it would be neat if we could see Vale and Mt. Aleph in the background. Since the stage is set on a lighthouse it would be a good opportunity to have some locations appear in the background as cameos. (Maybe they could have Kolima Forest appear somewhere too.....not sure how close Kolima is to Venus Lighthouse)

To be fair, the devs went through the trouble of modelling all ~17 or so fighters for the King of Fighters Stadium. I wouldn't doubt that we'd get some cameos with Isaac.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

I feel the obvious answer is the Venus Lighthouse, but for me, the best thing to do stage wise is to have the stage be the Lemurian Ship with the Wings of Anemos attached.

That way you can have the ship flying around and it can get close to the different lighthouses and depending on which lighthouse, certain elemental hazards can appear. And if I’m remembering correctly, the ship couldn’t constantly fly as the group’s Psynergy kept it in the air. So I think it would be cool for the ship to rest in the Karagol Sea. That way there can be a stage boss which would of course be the Kraken boss.

That does seem like a bit much for a DLC fighter but it’s what I would like lol. It’s most likely gonna be just Venus Lighthouse if Isaac makes it in.

One reason I prefer the idea of Venus Lighthouse is because I think Saturos/Menardi appearing as a boss is more likely if it's just Venus Lighthouse.

Whereas if it's a stage moving from lighthouse to lighthouse we probably won't get that. (and I really would love to see Saturos and Menardi as stage bosses....and I think they would be way more iconic as bosses than the kraken would be.)

 

[jweb23]

One reason I prefer the idea of Venus Lighthouse is because I think Saturos/Menardi appearing as a boss is more likely if it's just Venus Lighthouse.

Whereas if it's a stage moving from lighthouse to lighthouse we probably won't get that. (and I really would love to see Saturos and Menardi as stage bosses....and I think they would be way more iconic as bosses than the kraken would be.)

True. I wasn’t really thinking about them when I quickly came up with my idea.

I was just trying to come up with something that didn’t feel too similar to other stages.

 

[Monue]

I'm new here as well, so I wouldn't really know. I've mostly planned out a moveset and that's about it. That being said, Venus Lighthouse seems to be the most iconic Golden Sun location.

It does, I think it would be a great option!

I would want Venus Lighthouse as the stage.

I'd also like to see Saturos & Menardi appear as bosses/stage hazards who attack separately at first but eventually combine into Fusion Dragon.

Ideally I'd also like to see cameos for other party members (Garet, Mia, Ivan, Jenna, Sheba, Piers and Felix, if he's not an alt costume) and also Kraden/Alex. I say ideally because I doubt they'd go to that much trouble modelling all of those characters for cameos....unless they were able to take them directly from the Golden Sun remakes.

Maybe also have the four different djinn types fly around in the background (like the jinjos on Spiral Mountain)

Also this is a small thing but I think it would be neat if we could see Vale and Mt. Aleph in the background. Since the stage is set on a lighthouse it would be a good opportunity to have some locations appear in the background as cameos. (Maybe they could have Kolima Forest appear somewhere too.....not sure how close Kolima is to Venus Lighthouse)

I agree with Sharklord that I think there's a chance we could see plenty of cameos, they've certainly been willing to do it before. Those ideas sound very cool, though! I'd love to see Saturos and Menardi as hazards or bosses or what have you.

I feel the obvious answer is the Venus Lighthouse, but for me, the best thing to do stage wise is to have the stage be the Lemurian Ship with the Wings of Anemos attached.

That way you can have the ship flying around and it can get close to the different lighthouses and depending on which lighthouse, certain elemental hazards can appear. And if I’m remembering correctly, the ship couldn’t constantly fly as the group’s Psynergy kept it in the air. So I think it would be cool for the ship to rest in the Karagol Sea. That way there can be a stage boss which would of course be the Kraken boss.

That does seem like a bit much for a DLC fighter but it’s what I would like lol. It’s most likely gonna be just Venus Lighthouse if Isaac makes it in.

Very unique! I might actually prefer this over just the Venus Lighthouse itself. I'm not usually a big fan of the rail stages, or transforming ones, but if it'd let me see more Golden Sun locations in that sweet sweet HD, then I'm all for it!

 

[GoodGrief741]

To be fair, the devs went through the trouble of modelling all ~17 or so fighters for the King of Fighters Stadium. I wouldn't doubt that we'd get some cameos with Isaac.

Though we didn't get a single ARMS fighter for the ARMS stage, so budget might be an issue for this Pass.

 

[SharkLord]

Though we didn't get a single ARMS fighter for the ARMS stage, so budget might be an issue for this Pass.

To be fair, Min Min took extra time to complete. They might have thought the animations would be too hard to deal with, or maybe Sakurai just felt like a stage that didn't have cameos, or maybe Min Min's pack was just the one to operate on a lower budget.

 

[Nazyrus]

I just think Arms stage having an audience on the background was already what they wanted from the start, it does feel more like Arms after all. I don't think it was due to a limitation, i think it was just what they wanted from the start.

 

[jweb23]

Though we didn't get a single ARMS fighter for the ARMS stage, so budget might be an issue for this Pass.

I never got into Arms so I’m not sure how they handled the other characters during fights. However I have played King Of Fighters and normally a few of the other playable characters are hanging out in the background or watching you fight. So it makes a lot of sense for Sakurai’s team to do that for Terry’s stage. So I don’t think budget played a role in that not being the case for Arms.

 

[NonSpecificGuy]

Yeah I think the lack of canoes is just creative. I don’t think there was limitations. Aside from maybe the fact that Sakurai thought that a playable character, assist trophy, and stage was enough for arms. Which wouldn’t be wrong either.

 

[NessAtc.]

Though we didn't get a single ARMS fighter for the ARMS stage, so budget might be an issue for this Pass.

I don't think budget had anything to do with the lack of ARMS fighters on the ARMS stage. Min Min outright reuses her ARMS model for Smash, so they could have easily done the same for background fighters

 

[FlawedAI]

I think the reason that ARMS fighters don't appear is because they wouldn't normally appear in the background of an ARMS match, whereas in KoF you can see other characters in the background frequently. Given the theme of cameos on DLC stages, Min Min seems to be the exception, not the rule.

 

[SharkLord]

I think the reason that ARMS fighters don't appear is because they wouldn't normally appear in the background of an ARMS match, whereas in KoF you can see other characters in the background frequently. Given the theme of cameos on DLC stages, Min Min seems to be the exception, not the rule.

And if we're being technical, Yggdrasil's Altar only has cameos from Dragon Quest monsters, with none of the party members from any installment appearing, which contrasts with fellow JRPG characters Joker and Byleth. It seems like a lack of character cameos is a stylistic choice.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I’d like to see a medley of all the lighthouse themes.

 

[Billybae10K]

So! I'm sure this has been brought up at several points throughout the long history of the thread, but for the sake of conversation and since I'm new around here, I was curious: Assuming Isaac made it into Smash, where would you like his stage to take place, and what would you want it to include if you had the option to do whatever (i.e. hazards, cameos, transformations, ect).

While I think Venus Lighthouse is the most obvious/likely choice for a stage, I've always thought the Elemental Star Chamber would be a neat little concept. It's not exactly "iconic" unless you've played the first Golden Sun game, which is why I'm 99% sure it wouldn't be Golden Sun's stage, but the idea of this chamber with moving platforms, the four elemental stars, the calm cavern lake beneath which could then turn to magma & lava, like in the games, as a stage hazard, along with a potential remix of the elemental star theme.

Just, take my money Sakurai.

 

[Cadillac]

So! I'm sure this has been brought up at several points throughout the long history of the thread, but for the sake of conversation and since I'm new around here, I was curious: Assuming Isaac made it into Smash, where would you like his stage to take place, and what would you want it to include if you had the option to do whatever (i.e. hazards, cameos, transformations, ect).

Venus Lighthouse, no doubt. For cameos, maybe the party members, Krayden, and Alex. It would be cool if there were floating platforms working as an elevator.

 

[FlawedAI]

And if we're being technical, Yggdrasil's Altar only has cameos from Dragon Quest monsters, with none of the party members from any installment appearing, which contrasts with fellow JRPG characters Joker and Byleth. It seems like a lack of character cameos is a stylistic choice.

That's true, technically only Slime, Liquid Metal Slime, and Tockles cameo on the DQ stage, with the fake treasure chests (forgot what they're called) being a stage hazard. I consider those to still be cameos, but I agree, if a stage doesn't have cameos, it's a stylistic choice.

I’d like to see a medley of all the lighthouse themes.

Me too, especially if the stage a "Lighthouse Tour" like some have suggested. My number 1 most desired remix is Venus Lighthouse on its own, but a Lighthouse Medley would be sick.

 

[SonicLink125]

And here we see Masahiro Sakurai training to be the legendary Massive Hero Soccer Guy.

#SmashBros #Mii pic.twitter.com/mMgouf1z60

— SonicLink125 ☀️ (@SonicLink125) August 28, 2020

I can’t believe I took this snapshot yesterday! Love it!

Venus Lighthouse is an obvious choice, but I’d also be cool if we also had Sol Sanctum/Elemental Star Room, Vale, The Colosseum, All 4 Lighthouses in one, etc.

 

[SharkLord]

That's true, technically only Slime, Liquid Metal Slime, and Tockles cameo on the DQ stage, with the fake treasure chests (forgot what they're called) being a stage hazard. I consider those to still be cameos, but I agree, if a stage doesn't have cameos, it's a stylistic choice.

Well, if the monsters are counted as cameos, I guess we could count the ARMS fighters on the billboards, given Sakurai went out of his way to point them out too. They're still cameos, but not to the same level as the other DLC stages.

 

[Gioka]

So! I'm sure this has been brought up at several points throughout the long history of the thread, but for the sake of conversation and since I'm new around here, I was curious: Assuming Isaac made it into Smash, where would you like his stage to take place, and what would you want it to include if you had the option to do whatever (i.e. hazards, cameos, transformations, ect).

Venus Lighthouse is probably the most recognizable/emblematic but I think a stage that rotates between all the elemental lighthouses would be better (kinda like how Garreg Mach works) since it would display more of the world. If I were to choose tho, Lemurian Ship would be my go to because they could include numerous locations in the background

 

[Kalaam]

I think a stage moving between the lighthouses (each with a potential hazard/boss. I mean each have a bossfight so...) climaxing on Mt Alpeh during the Golden Sun.
Maybe starting in elemental stars chamber. A wide main platform, some smaller ones popping up on the sides, then everything starts shaking, you see the stars flying away, the lava appears, and when it's about to engulf the stage, teleport to Mercury lighthouse. First it's lit off, then you see the star getting in, slowly it starts lighting, maybe Saturos appears as a boss (or background). Then after a while TP again and rince and repeat for each lighthouse. Maybe with some appropriate hazards (water jets, sand cascades, ascending winds, fireballs...)

 

[FlawedAI]

While a traveling stage would probably be best for showcasing the world of Weyard, I think that a dedicated Venus Lighthouse stage would be the coolest. The state would probably split with hazards on as well as possibly a Saturos/Menardi boss. If the team doesn't have to worry about modeling all of the different environments, they can focus more on making the stage really feel like Golden Sun. I wouldn't be opposed to a traveling stage, it's just my opinion that Venus Lighthouse on its own would be coolest.

 

[SirBillyBob]

A little late on the ARMS cameo discussion, but I'm pretty sure the reason the fighters don't appear on the stage is because they already make cameo appearances on the jumbotron in the background. They even have new renders.

 

[Nawgust]

Stop me if y'all have heard this one before, but how about like... a generic lighthouse stage? They all have more or less the same layout up top. Different backgrounds/ aesthetics depending on which lighthouse you're at, with the corresponding colored beacon being lit. We already have a similar situation with the Persona stage.

 

[SharkLord]

Stop me if y'all have heard this one before, but how about like... a generic lighthouse stage? They all have more or less the same layout up top. Different backgrounds/ aesthetics depending on which lighthouse you're at, with the corresponding colored beacon being lit. We already have a similar situation with the Persona stage.

Ah, so it has the same layout but changes design based on the song playing? That could be interesting.

 

[DrakeHavok]

Ah, so it has the same layout but changes design based on the song playing? That could be interesting.

I don't think the design would even necessarily have to change based on the music being used (though it would be interesting to see how the music would get correlated to each lighthouse). It could just be randomly set at the beginning of each match. Though if we WERE to get a lighthouse stage that shifts between each element, personally I'd want each lighthouse variant to have its own hazards to avoid, kinda like the Pokemon Stadiums. Jupiter Lighthouse could have strong winds trying to blow fighters off the top, Venus could have much more frequent quakes that tear the lighthouse apart (or even have the Fusion Dragon show up), Mercury could have water spill forth from the aerie that simultaneously tries to wash you off the stage while also healing you when you stand in it, and Mars could of course have fire going off everywhere (if not bring in the Doom Dragon).

Also hello all, I am new to these boards but have been a longtime Smash fan and a huge supporter of Isaac getting into Smash since pre-Brawl... and have been kinda following the conversation here for a while until finally getting an account today. I hope that's not too weird.

 

[Isaac: Venus Adept]

Also hello all, I am new to these boards but have been a longtime Smash fan and a huge supporter of Isaac getting into Smash since pre-Brawl... and have been kinda following the conversation here for a while until finally getting an account today. I hope that's not too weird.

Its no problem at all, nice to have you on board

 

[Kisae]

I think the reason why Nintendo is continuously being THAT silent is because of all the rumors going around for the new model of Nintendo Switch for 2021.

I think they are just keeping the big announcements for the release of the new model. Maybe the games like BOTW2,Metroid 4, Bayonetta 3 take this long to hqve even a trailer ( yeah i know MP4 has been restarted from 0, but no doubt these games will have a simultaneous release on every switch model.

And that's why i think they keep pushing the date of a general direct, because they will need to presentin goodand full terms the new Switch model.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

Is there a possibility that due to a lack of actual credible rumours regarding the identity of FP7, it could be a first-party character?

Spoiler: Adepts

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361. Ninjakid41592
362. Ninjaed
363. Nintandy
364. Nintendokusou
365. NitrusVirus
366. NNN
367. NonSpecificGuy
368. NoOtherPersona
369. NoR4U
370. Nossnitro102
371. Octillus
372. Oddyesy
373. oh.glory
374. OhMyBanana54
375. Olo
376. Onassi2
377. Oniric Spriter
378. Ookami Ryo
379. OpticalBlast
380. OptimisticStrifer
381. Oracle_Summon
382. Organization XIII
383. osby
384. otarolgam
385. Oz37
386. Pacack
387. Pakky
388. Papagenos
389. ParanoidDrone
390. Pcubed007
391. Pennate
392. Phaazoid
393. PhilosophicAnimal
394. pholtos
395. Pinguino21v
396. Pizza Robo
397. P.Kat
398. Plain Yogurt
399. Plank08
400. Plato Xaiver
401. Playcube
402. PlayfulMushroom
403. POKEMANSPIKA
404. PokiehlthePoet
405. Powerman293
406. praline
407. ProperlyBasic
408. proxian
409. psb123
410. PSIguy89
411. PSYNergy
412. PrinceGal3n
413. PurpleStuff5
414. PWN3
415. Pwnapplez
416. Pyzlnar
417. QcSlayer
418. Q-Long
419. Quetzal77
420. R.O.B.
421. Radical Beam
422. Radori
423. Raetah
424. Rafuki21
425. RandomAce
426. Raykz
427. Raziek
428. Red Dasher
429. Red Ryu
430. ReeseBalaski
431. RegiGygas117
432. RenH
433. Replica
434. Rethuic
435. Retroen
436. RetrogamerMax
437. RetroMetalSonic
438. RhymeswithEmpty
439. Roger Smith
440. RosaPeach
441. Royaru
442. roydgriffin
443. Royvolution Ream
444. RumpletrellskiN
445. Ryan
446. Ryuji
447. Ryuutakeshi
448. Sabrewulf238
449. Saer2k
450. Sagittarius
451. Salocin
452. sandfall
453. SanicJan
454. Sari
455. Scatmansworld25
456. Scoliosis Jones
457. scoobymcsnack
458. Seb9k+
459. SebasSancy
460. Secret Sexytime
461. Seleir
462. Seoxys
463. Sephazon
464. ShadowGuy1
465. Sharklord
466. Shawnullah
467. sheik93
468. shellshocker18
469. Shin F.
470. Shinhed-echi
471. Shiny Porygon
472. shocktarts17
473. Shog
474. Sidboylol
475. Silo777
476. SirBillyBob
477. SirCamp
478. Skeleton o' Fun
479. SkullKidKing
480. Skyblade12
481. Skyfox2000
482. sman3975
483. Smash_Handle69
484. SmashBro99
485. smashingDoug
486. smashkirby
487. Smashmar2
488. smash puffle
489. SmashShadow
490. smashtriforce77
491. smileMasky
492. SmilingMad
493. SMX
494. SNEKeater
495. Solbliminal
496. Solfiner
497. someonetookjacob
498. SonicLink125
499. SonicSmasher
500. SoraSaturn
501. Sordim522
502. SorMago
503. SorrowOfAcheron
504. SoulofKhaos
505. Soulsaint
506. SoupCanMafia
507. Sparkus
508. Spatman
509. Spazzy_D
510. Speedwagon
511. Speed Weed
512. SPEN18
513. spoilerowl
514. Spootondorf
515. Sqid
516. Squirtle/Mario guy
517. SSBFan
518. Staarih
519. StaffofSmashing
520. Strider_Bond00J
521. StrikeBlade
522. SundaeS
523. SuperBrawler
524. Superfiremario
525. SuperNintendoKid
526. Supersmash77
527. Superyoshiom
528. Swampasaur
529. Sykin
530. Takasmash
531. tamagone
532. TappyBat
533. TBone06
534. tbuster766
535. TCT~Phantom
536. TeamFlareZakk
537. Techno1000
538. Tecnoid
539. Teeb147
540. TeenGirlSquad
541. TehEpicRyuga
542. TempestSurge
543. Tetiro
544. Tetrin
545. ThatShadowLink
546. THE 6r
547. The Curious Volnutt
548. The One Who Wrote This
549. Thekewlusername
550. T-Hell
551. TheRealHeroOfWinds
552. TheSeanMan
553. TheSpaceKing
554. The Stoopid Unikorn
555. TheTactician
556. THE TemporaryFool
557. thethirdkoopa
558. TheZoologist
559. ThirdDay
560. ThoughtfulWanderer
561. ThunderOverload
562. TiaSilvia
563. TimeSmash
564. Tinfoil
565. Tiymako
566. ToothiestAura
567. topspin1617
568. Tornado_Man
569. Travix Man
570. TreeBranch
571. True Blue Warrior
572. Turmalinium
573. tveye
574. tyrus+
575. UltimateWario
576. Ultinarok
577. Undella2
578. User Name String
579. UtopianPoyzin
580. valkiriforce
581. Vann Accessible
582. Vegito2727
583. Venus of the Desert Bloom
584. Vintage Creep
585. Violenceman
586. WaddleMatt
587. walph
588. warelander
589. Warheart_666
590. Wigglytuff ★
591. winterofsilver
592. Wintropy
593. WhiteEaglePL
594. Xelion
595. Xenigma
596. XenoWarriorX
597. XeVioN
598. Xiivi
599. Xithyl_kykorl
600. xLemmy_KoopaX
601. xNaz
602. xpnc
603. XTremeGamer1234
604. XxLtxX
605. Yangfly Leone
606. YellowLord
607. Yggdra
608. Yoh
609. Yoshi444
610. YoshiandToad
611. Young Horsetail
612. Your Hero
613. Ypsen
614. Yuki Setsuna
615. Yusa
616. YwhaletailY
617. Zabadoo
618. Zack 2
619. zabimaru1000
620. zagman505
621. zaiman12345
622. Zalaresh
623. Zandro
624. ZanZero
625. ZarroTsu
626. ZeldaMaster
627. ZelDan
628. ZestyÑ
629. zferolie
630. zmero_
631. Zulyar
632. Zuppo

 

[FlawedAI]

Is there a possibility that due to a lack of actual credible rumours regarding the identity of FP7, it could be a first-party character?

That's very possible, I'm pretty sure neither Byleth or Min Min were leaked (publicly, at least) and it's most likely because they don't need to contact other companies for legal rights and the such.

 

[Nazyrus]

Is there a possibility that due to a lack of actual credible rumours regarding the identity of FP7, it could be a first-party character?

I would only jump to the conclusion within the week of the presentation tbh. If by the day before it airs it hasnt been leaked or heavily teased by someone, then the chances for a 1rst party are high. But there is always the chance that by some miracle it is a third party that didn't leak, like how terry almost was if it wasn't for nintendo's own screw up.

 

[Guynamednelson]

Min Min were leaked

There was a series of Tweets that leaked her by having the first letter of each one be M, I, N, M, I, and N respectively.

 

[Megadoomer]

There was a series of Tweets that leaked her by having the first letter of each one be M, I, N, M, I, and N respectively.

For reference, it's this:

pic.twitter.com/QYXseUqfP7

— Imran Khan (@imranzomg) June 22, 2020

Though I'm not sure whether it was an actual hint at who was getting in, or just who he wanted to see. I know that he has some industry connections (being a former senior editor of Game Informer), though I'm not sure how much inside information that would get him, or what (if anything) he's leaked in the past.

 

[Nazyrus]

Yeah that was Imran. Imran did it that way and Jon wouldn't shut up about Min Min. That's how she leaked, no one else did a thing to leak her lol, just a bunch of people playing broken clock hoping to eventually be right, or else you would have Max Brass stans or Twintelle thirsty bois thinking those were in instead

 

[NessAtc.]

First party characters HAVE leaked, but there aren't many circumstances that could cause a leak, like with Terry's listing, and they also only tend to leak when the reveal is imminent.