Official Summer of Smash: Week #7 - EVO 2016 and Co.

[|RK|]

sure looks like the most solo-viable character right now.

I don't think there are any solo-viable characters, lol. Ally has Cloud and Marth for reasons.

 

[BlazGreen]

Immediate thoughts

• There's no way Mario isn't top 10 and he might honestly be top 5 at this point in time
  
• Megaman has definitely made a case for being high tier though time will tell if he has the consistency to be labeled one
  
• A good showing for and while a slightly disappointing weekend for
• Mid tier is still an absolute mess

 

[Thinkaman]

There are 3 big, open question regarding tiering, assuming that no one cares about pure theory in 2016:

1. How elastic do you think player preference is (aka how much weight do you give to usage relative to results?)
2. What levels of skill should be focused on? If skill level should weight results, along what curve?
3. How far back should data go? If more recent matches should be weighted, along what curve?

There are a few other minor questions regarding data interpretation of results (attendance, regional factors, ect.), but those 3 questions are the source of basically all disputes.


It's very difficult to formulate a set of criteria that does not include Mario in top 5 or even top 3. At best, a somewhat recent window that looks at precisely results from the last few month in the ~99.99th percentile range (like what Das Koopa runs) can put Mario as low as 7th or 8th.

But both narrower and wider criteria for either skill level or time frame show more favorable results for Mario. (Aka, Mario is both more popular historically, more popular recently, more popular at lower levels of play, and more popular/successful at higher levels of play.)


Edit: Just to be clear, there are no objectively correct answers to those 3 questions, and declaring that there is (and sharing your opinion) is going to make you look stupid.

 

[TDK]

Ally, ZeRo, and Dabuz are the top 3 players right now, though the order is debatable. Ally's won more tournaments than ZeRo and Dabuz in 2016, though he has had lower lows than the two. ZeRo and Dabuz's lowest placement has been 9th, though Dabuz has had slightly lower than ZeRo at 7th but ZeRo has taken Random losses to random characters.

How far back should data go? If more recent matches should be weighted, along what curve?

Only go back as far as the most recent patch.

 

[Thinkaman]

Only go back as far as the most recent patch.

Why are you making Melee data so difficult to compile?!?

 

[Das Koopa]

I'm probably going to open a wordpress and write an article about this lol

But here's a big subject: ZeRo, despite getting third, went on a fantastic Loser's Bracket run.

2-1 Salem
2-0 Hyuga
2-0 Komorikiri
2-0 KEN
2-0 Earth
2-0 Larry Lurr
2-0 Abadango
2-0 VoiD

 

[JustSomeScrub]

Ally, ZeRo, and Dabuz are the top 3 players right now, though the order is debatable. Ally's won more tournaments than ZeRo and Dabuz in 2016, though he has had lower lows than the two. ZeRo and Dabuz's lowest placement has been 9th, though Dabuz has had slightly lower than ZeRo at 7th but ZeRo has taken Random losses to random characters.


Only go back as far as the most recent patch.

Japan has showed once again, they are not to be slept on and we can't simply ignore their results as the US often does. Let's not ignore that the Megaman that wins often in Japan and was wrote off because "lol it's just Japan" just outplaced every single top American player at Evo.

Perceptions can completely change from tournament to tournament and its not like Japan travels nearly enough to know how they'd fair if they went to as many tournaments as Ally, Zero or Dabuz.

Same goes for Mexico. Leo at his first and only international major got 4th. Who knows how well he'd be doing if he attended everything big like these guys.

Ally has also taken random losses to random characters btw. Including GnW, Corrin and Greninja. Not to take away from his incredible Evo run, only pointed out because you implied it was exclusive to Zero.

 

[Thinkaman]

The whole "IS ZERO ON THE DECLINE???" narrative has been utter tabloid tripe, really weak "e-sports" tbqh.

It will take a lot before anyone can put together a mathematical argument that ZeRo is not the #1 overall player, not to take anything way from Ally's (and Kame's) incredible play + accomplishments this weekend.

Edit: It'll be a long road for anyone to truly dethrone ZeRo and match his history, but Ally is showing us at the very least what the start of that road would look like.

 

[Zelder]

People keep saying "we can't write off Japan" or "you can't just ignore Japan". My question is:

who in the hell was ignoring Japan? People were literally waiting with baited breath to watch Kamemushi bring his style to EVO.

 

[Game7a1]

I'm probably going to open a wordpress and write an article about this lol

But here's a big subject: ZeRo, despite getting third, went on a fantastic Loser's Bracket run.

2-1 Salem
2-0 Hyuga
2-0 Komorikiri
2-0 KEN
2-0 Earth
2-0 Larry Lurr
2-0 Abadango

Don't forget 2-0 Void.

 

[Thinkaman]

Yeah, writing off Japan was what, like, 2012 nonsense? A completely different game for crying out loud.

Abadango is practically the west's favorite player, somehow.

 

[JustSomeScrub]

The whole "IS ZERO ON THE DECLINE???" narrative has been utter tabloid tripe, really weak "e-sports" tbqh.

It will take a lot before anyone can put together a mathematical argument that ZeRo is not the #1 overall player, not to take anything way from Ally's (and Kame's) incredible play + accomplishments this weekend.

If we're going by overall tournament results and consistency in the US then yeah Zero is easily the best.

But why do only US tournaments matter for ranking?

Kamemushi, Ranai, MK Leo etc. don't travel, there's no telling how well they'd regularly place if they did.

My point is in other games, the players travelling the most are generally the best. This doesn't necessarily seem to be the case in Smash 4, there's way too many hidden/unknown killers.

Yeah, writing off Japan was what, like, 2012 nonsense?

Yeah and it was glorious too.

The US was about to ban MK for good after Apex and when people pointed out Japan still had him legal and he didn't always win the general response was "their MKs/players aren't as good as ours so they haven't gotten to a point where MK is unbeatable".

Then Nietono using Olimar proceeded to outplace every US player that Apex.

 

[Djent]

FWIW I still see people saying Japan is "overrated" because none of them are consistent. Just because the posters here are smart enough to avoid that mistake doesn't mean that everyone is.

 

[JustSomeScrub]

People keep saying "we can't write off Japan" or "you can't just ignore Japan". My question is:

who in the hell was ignoring Japan? People were literally waiting with baited breath to watch Kamemushi bring his style to EVO.

Most were convinced he wouldn't do well at Evo and his placings in Japan didn't matter because it was just Japan with their "random" results (as if US players aren't inconsistent as well).

Seriously, there's not a single Smash 4 player that doesn't have bad tournaments so how can inconsistency be an argument against Japan specifically?

And last I checked, Kame wins most tournaments these days in Japan as well (when he's not fooling around with secondaries).

 

[L9999]

Impressions:
Extremely disapointing for . Still got 25(?) but no top 16/8. "He ran into bad MUs" That's the point.is now an auto-loss and I told you people it would happen. Seriously, every super major a new autoloss shows up.

Stop pretendingis not top 3/tier. "Balanced" my shoelaces, you can spam his aerials all you want and do D-Throw combos sleeping.

is very volatile and has drained before, but I think we shouldn't group him with the crappy characters. Non-Regi GnWs are placing well too, so that's better than, roll the dice, lack of existence.

20FF is not happening.mains are getting out of tournaments fast this days, and the pockets barely contribute to anything.

Where the hell is ? is looking better right now. From yesterday, . Imagine is someone good bothered playing her, it would be cool. Xaltis' was LOL. (at least someone bothered to play her....).
is not dead guys, the other Killagers are ants compared to Ranai (yet they beat Aba LOL).
still doing fine.
hype is real. Mario MU looks like garbage though.

 

[Emblem Lord]

You cannot ever take Japanese tourney results too seriously. They are bo1. ANYTHING can happen. What you look for is who is taking the most top 8 spots overall in their tournies. That will tell you who is good. In Japan a top player can lose to a random. Thats just how strong their scene is and its like that for alot of competitive games they play.

 

[JustSomeScrub]

You cannot ever take Japanese tourney results too seriously. They are bo1. ANYTHING can happen. What you look for is who is taking the most top 8 spots overall in their tournies. That will tell you who is good. In Japan a top player can lose to a random. Thats just how strong their scene is and its like that for alot of competitive games they play.

Yes but that doesn't mean their scene is weaker than the US. Just that they have a lot of hidden killers and really strong wifi warriors that only occasionally go to tournaments so when they do, "upsets" are extremely common. Which if anything, shows their scene is stronger.

Also I don't believe finals in Japan are BO1.

 

[L9999]

Oh almost forgot. Emblem Lord , you were right about Rat VS Ryu MU. Pikachu basically selfdestructs.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Yes but that doesn't mean their scene is weaker than the US. Just that they have a lot of hidden killers and really strong wifi warriors that only occasionally go to tournaments so when they do, "upsets" are extremely common. Which if anything, shows their scene is stronger.

Also I don't believe finals in Japan are BO1.

Dawg....

Basically everyone is a killer in Japan. Thats why Japan is ****mazing

 

[ItsRainingGravy]

Congrats to Ally for taking EVO! He definitely deserved it, going up against Rosalina/Mewtwo (Dabuz/Abadando) despite them having supposedly advantageous matchups against him. Furthermore, Ally has had a rough time trying to beat Dabuz I believe? And he was able to 2-0 him. And as for Abadango, Abadango went 3-0 against Ally at Pound with Mewtwo, but Ally was able to win 2-1 against him this time around. Outside of an unfortunate SD at GF, Ally was on fire today.

Shoutouts to both Rania and Kamemushi for playing incredibly entertaining games as well! With Villager and Mega Man, respectively. After the amount of hate that Villager got at last year's EVO, it was incredibly refreshing to see people cheer for how Rania played Villager, and how the character was seen in a completely different light in contrast to before. As for Kamemushi, he fought extremely hard as well, and was able to beat Mr R's Sheik and Zero's Diddy without dropping a set to either of them. He had a very rough set of matches against Ally unfortunately, but regardless, he was bringing a lot of hype back for a still relatively underrated character here in the US.

Everyone played extremely well though, and I can say that I am quite satisfied with this year's EVO, although there were still quite a few hiccups here and there. Really awesome to see 8 different characters in top 8! Would've been happy to see any of them take the gold, honestly. Lot of diversity on the lower brackets, as well. I hope that this spells good things for Smash 4's future!

 

[JustSomeScrub]

Dawg....

Basically everyone is a killer in Japan. Thats why Japan is ****mazing

It was like this in Brawl as well. After Otori won Apex 2012, a week or two later he got like 7th at a Japan regional lol.

I suspect extremely strong wifi and a tight knit community with low distances allowing regular practice has a lot to do with it.

They don't have 5 or so "top" players. More like 20+ that at any given day could take or at least place very high at a tournament.

A few months ago an Olimar player (Shuton iirc) won a major tournament in Japan. And he's considered what? Bottom mid at best in the US?

 

[soniczx123]

Dawg....

Basically everyone is a killer in Japan. Thats why Japan is ****mazing

Only pools are B1. Bracket is Bo3

 

[Illuminose]

Some initial post-tournament thoughts:

Incredible tournament for Ally, obviously. The thing with Ally is that his pressure and reads are just relentless -- he really makes it feel like you're never safe, which is just crazy. And his play in the Rosa matchup was downright inspiring. That matchup is lauded as awful for Mario and Ally made it look easy. Same with Mewtwo, for that matter. If those matchups can be reasonably overcome, Mario is top 5. It's really that simple. The only pretty **** matchup I think Mario has left is Sonic, who I think has a solid 60:40 advantage, and I still think Mario has to work hard for every matchup against top tiers BUT by winning 2 super majors from different players he's proved that he has the tools for consistency that I really think no other character has.

Really happy to see Kamemushi prove that he is the real deal and not overhyped. Though there were some ah...shenanigans in certain games, it still speaks volumes that Kamemushi was able to beat the 2 best Sheiks in the world in addition to another top Sheik (False). I'd still say that Sheik is a solid 60:40 in her own favor but definitely very winnable for Mega Man. I'm just going to say that Kamemushi's adaptation against Ally overall seriously impressed me. He looked completely lost in the Mario matchup intially, like he had literally never played a good Mario (probably true), which could be seen by landing and getting hit in general by charged up smashes that anyone who knows the matchup would avoid. That in addition to not respecting options from Mario. In the end, Kamemushi took a game and very nearly took another with significant improvements in respecting/understanding Mario's options, which shows enough to me that the destruction in winners finals had more to do with Ally's ridiculous play and Kamemushi's lack of knowledge than an actual very bad matchup. Based on that this matchup looks like ~what Scatt put it, 45:55 for Mega Man. Moving on, if there was ever a set to show that Mega Man beats Diddy like people say, it's that losers finals set. Mega Man just kinda breaks what Diddy wants to do with the lemons invading Diddy's patient game where he wants to dictate his own pace. Offensive play simply gets walled out. Diddy is too solid to lose the matchup badly, mainly because of how good the banana is against Mega Man when he has to land & such, but a slight edge for Mega Man makes sense.

My overall point is that Kamemushi is insanely good and that he's unlocked the depth of a very strong character. There's no doubt in my mind at this point that Mega Man is a strong character (I already had him in my top 15). Some of my overall thoughts on potential/etc being validated especially in how Kamemushi was able to deal with Mario by the end and not losing to the top Sheiks he had to play, make me think that Mega Man could be a top 10 character.

Please stop calling Pit a mediocre character. Actually believe the people who say that his advantage state is bonkers, and I think we can confidently say that Pit's reward is not weak. So those are the 'really amazing things about Pit' that he supposedly lacks. We can attribute Earth's fundamentally incredible play to him, but also acknowledge that Pit's tools to maintain advantage state and play consistently are extremely solid. Pit is high tier and that's that.

I'd say it's a disappointing run for the Sonics, but honestly Komo and KEN were eaten up by losers ZeRo and also lost to Dabuz/VoiD respectively. Komo didn't even use Sonic vs Dabuz and KEN overall looked fine against VoiD. They lost to amazing players, which you can't really over analyze to say much about Sonic. Three Sonics in top 32 says enough on its own.

I'm even more unsure of how I feel about the characters we call the best characters in the game now. ZeRo's run was incredible with Diddy, but other players were able to make comparable runs with their own characters and the other Diddys mostly got kinda bopped, Nietono losing the commonly cited bad Olimar matchup and Diddy dittos while Zinoto lost a soldily advantaged matchup (Meta Knight) as well as to a semi-random Rosa. The Rosa Diddy Kong matchup, based on all our available data, still looks to me as if Diddy has a disadvantage because he's so pressured to play perfect and not mess up, while Rosa can exploit him so badly if he loses momentum and gets in a bad position (juggle or offstage). It looks even when you have the Diddy playing on point and safe the entire time, but you shouldn't view a matchup based on perfect or near perfect play imo. I still hold to my opinion that Diddy is insanely good with momentum and control, but not that great without it. I can't really say he's the best with all that in mind. Then there's the whole Clouds bustering, although Komo used Cloud very little and M2K didn't enter which complicates any analysis you can make about the character based off this tournament. Maybe Sheik's the best, idrk. Mr.R threw away his tournament chances kinda which I won't blame on Sheik, and VoiD performed extremely impressively throughout the tournament. She's probably the one character who you can't really say definitively loses ANY matchup, but Sheik still has her own issues with consistency. She seems like the best pick for #1 right now though overall.

Oh, and lastly: no one is allowed to sleep on Ranai ever again. He's just too good lol. Ranai's prowess in reactions, spacing, reads, safety, etc was so on point throughout the weekend, and you never really lose that level of sheer fundamentals regardless of what kind of break you take. Ranai will always be a top threat with the ability to beat anyone at any given tournament he attends, period. And Japan in general is crazy good, players like Kamemushi, Ranai, Abadango, Komorikiri, KEN, Nietono, and Kirihara being on the same playing field as our top players including being subject to the same inconsistencies and upsets at times.

 

[Emblem Lord]

Only pools are B1. Bracket is Bo3

Ah man. Not as hardcore as the SF scene. Everything bo1 in SF.

And yeah Pika vs Ryu is even. Pika is super mobile but he cannot kill for **** and his ability to harass is only decent. Really thunder jolts are a minor annoyance and any button Ryu has will wreck QAC as it extends his hurtbox.

 

[ARISTOS]

My biggest takeaway for the weekend: **** your theoretical MUs

Paraphrasing Friedman Hayek "Most of these models are entirely made up and based off of sometimes faulty, incorrect data."

 

[Ninety]

I think if we're arguing over who's the best overall the answer is a bit different as to who's the best right now. ZeRo and Ally, respectively.

 

[HoSmash4]

So much balance. I love it

 

[Nu~]

Just as I assumed.

Knee jerk reactions to Kamemushi's result.
Somehow mega man is already top 10 (???)


Don't get me wrong, the character is definitely among the top 20 but top 10? Nah, stop riding hype.

 

[Aaron1997]

Big winners for EVO 2016

Small winners

Losers

 

[Zelder]

My biggest takeaway for the weekend: **** your theoretical MUs

Paraphrasing Friedman Hayek "Most of these models are entirely made up and based off of sometimes faulty, incorrect data."

While I admire your spirit, let's not usual a single data point, as prestigious a tournament as it may be, to throw out all our previous theory and understanding of Smash 4.

 

[ShadowGuy1]

Big winners for EVO 2016

Small winners

Losers

Add Robin to big winners. Dath beat he better player and got farther I think

 

[L9999]

Big winners for EVO 2016

Small winners

Losers

I was out of commission, can you fill me up on what DHD did?

 

[MistressRemilia]

Big winners for EVO 2016

Small winners

Losers

What is Shulk doing in this list? He did nothing, Nicko didn't get Top 64. Did he get some kind of big upset?
You might as well add Palutena to the list of small winners then. TLTC's 33rd place with the character is fairly decent & solidifies even more the fact that she has not much to do in the Bottom or lower side of Low tier.

Edit for L9999 : Raito got 49th with Duck Hunt. Considering Raito is the worse of the 3 Duck Hunt mains from Japan, this opens up the question of Duck Hunt's potency at getting Top 32 in a major if Yusan or Brood came in USA.

 

[Jexulus]

Big winners for EVO 2016

Small winners

Losers

Add Mewtwo to one of the winners lists. Abadango once again got top 8, and Rich Brown's placing proves it's not just Abadango carrying Mewtwo.

 

[Ninety]

Big props to Dath, yeah. Anti might be the biggest head any Robin has collected so far.

 

[ARISTOS]

While I admire your spirit, let's not usual a single data point, as prestigious a tournament as it may be, to throw out all our previous theory and understanding of Smash 4.

It's a bit different than that.

Too often I feel, we cite MUs and MU charts as certain, unchanging, clear numbers that can be added up and spat out. How often did we hear "Pikachu has great MUs!" when everyone was riding the hype train and then everyone realized what was actually happening didn't match our theories? How careful are we being in not doing that again?

Rosa's everywhere lamented and gnashed their teeth at the Cloud MU, stating it was a very uphill battle. We see that, and take it as an a sign of a -2 MU, failing to look and see if there are other tools that we may be overlooking. It's easier after the fact to claim "Oh wait, we missed this," but I think we can all be more proactive in trying to dig deep and see what can be improved on. AnTi may have very well lost out on winning EVO by trying to CP Xaltis based off of "Oh year Cloud for sure wins" instead of just trying his main. And if Dath played AnTi's Mario, wasn't that a cited MU that Robin does really poorly in?

It's one tournament, so it def shouldn't erase all that came before it but I think we should really reflect on trying to sum down what is a wide range of possibilities into simple numbers. We lose too much insight doing so and it leads to the hubris of us believing we've "solved" the meta through a CP option select. It doesn't work like that.

All in all, just trying to remind us that our theories are just that, theories. Be careful in trying to turn theory into law.

 

[Sinister Slush]

Yeah, writing off Japan was what, like, 2012 nonsense?

I think technically 2010 since people didn't think Brood would do as well as he did.

The US was about to ban MK for good after Apex and when people pointed out Japan still had him legal and he didn't always win the general response was "their MKs/players aren't as good as ours so they haven't gotten to a point where MK is unbeatable".

Then Nietono using Olimar proceeded to outplace every US player that Apex.

To be fair we were about to ban MK cause he was ridiculous as everyone knows in both singles and doubles, especially doubles near the end of brawl when everyone just did quadruple MK teams.
Japan mentioned how they'd stop attending our tournies if we banned MK so we didn't, then they proceeded not to come to APEX 2014 I believe anyways and so forth outside of rare 9B appearances at KTAR area events.

Also in the end of that Apex Nietono did well in, MK still took it all regardless if US or Japan player.

 

[Aaron1997]

L9999 Raito got 49th with Solo DH beating Jtails and Angel Crortez. I'm not sure this is good enough but I included him anyways

Edit: This also increases Hype around the other Japanese DH's. You3 believes that Brood is Much better then Raito and he got 49th at a Super Major

MistressRemilia 3 Shulks in top 64 at a Super Major is a really good Result (no meme intended)
Between Nicko,Dude and a NorCal Girl player that I can't name Atm

 

[Thinkaman]

I know I've mentioned this before, but there was also a lot of formidible Mac play running around in the sub-48 placement tiers.

Yeah, stream bias is a thing I guess (Mac/Sonic is a 80:20 matchup for stream viewership), but still.

 

[Shady Shaymin]

Well then, that's it. After a devastating loss to an extremely competent top level player, a concerning loser's run 2-0ing almost everyone in his path, and an absolutely horrific 3rd place result, I'm ready to call it. Gonzalo Barrios is the worst Smash 4 player of all time.

Oh, and X character that didn't appear in top 8 is actually complete ass and booty butt cheeks and we have been overrating them this whole time, and Megaman needs his own SS tier.