June Supplemental Elo Ratings
Ok guys I crunched the numbers and the new June listings are as follows. There are a few things to keep in mind and a few rules I'm outlining now.
1) Provisional ratings are in effect starting this listing. Provisional ratings are calculated for new players when 75% or more of the players in attendance are already rated. If less than 75% of the players in attendance are rated, new players start at a base elo calculated as exactly the average rating of the rated players in attendance. If provisional ratings are used, opponents with established ratings of the provisional players will have their ratings calculated against a non-changing numerical value equal to the provisional rating the new player established at the event. For example, for all players that played Zantetsu (a player with an established rating), their ratings are calculated on a per-matchup basis after each individual matchup. However for a provisional player such as Akuma, Akuma's rating is not calculated by each matchup, but by a single equation listed below. Each player that played Akuma had their ratings calculated off the exact same rating for Akuma no matter what the previous result was. For example, when I played Zantetsu, both our ratings had changed through the matches we played beforehand, and thus I was probably around 1210 and him around 1110 when that matchup occured and thus our ratings were calculated based off those ratings in real time. However, when I played Akuma the very next round, he had already established his privisional rating as 1123, and thus mine was calculated based off a loss as a player rated around 1220 vs 1123. His did not change at all, because the provisional rating was already established. The purpose of using a provisional ratings method is to avoid strong players entering their first rated even and starting much lower than their strength, and also negatively affecting players of higher ratings just because the new players base is lower than the players they beat. Akuma is a great example of this. He came in and played very well, defeating myself and also Zantetsu. Had he started at a base of 1,000 he would probably be rated around 1060, which isn't nearly as accurate as the 1123 he ended up at. At the same time, Zantetsu and I would both have suffered much larger elo losses unjustly by losing to a player with a lower base than they should have. It's a smart system that allows more accurate tracking of new players and existing players competing against new players.
2) The Provisional rating formula is an adaptation of the performance rating used in chess. It is calculated as:
Provisional rating = [(Total of opponents' ratings + 200 * (Wins - Losses)) / Games]
If two unrated players face off, their ratings will be entered into the equation as the average rating of the rated players in attendance. However, this was decided after I calculated for this tournament, but will be in effect for future ratings supplements. For this event, two unrated players playing eachother calculated their ratings as 1,000.
3) After four months of inactivity, a player will drop off the monthly supplemental list that is posted online. However, their rating is retained in a database for future use should they return to a rated event.
June Supplemental Elo Ratings List for Springfield, MO Melee
Rank
Gamertag
Elo-Apr
Chg
Elo-May
Record
1 Zivilyn Bane 1215 -19
1196
20-5
2 Sinister 1059 +120
1179
9-2
3 Saberguy 1132 na
1132
5-0
4 Akuma 0 new
1123
4-2
5 Zantetsu 1079 +12
1091
14-8
6 LinkMO 1038 +20
1058
7-4
7 VTS 1055 na
1055
4-2
8 Kellen 1030 na
1030
3-2
9 Terrance 987 +10
997
7-8
10 BoP 1041 -55
986
6-6
11 xzerolegend 1004 -22
982
8-8
12 Yoshiman 978 na
978
1-2
13 Terral 979 -5
974
9-10
14 Tempest 932 +42
974
3-6
15 DrewBear 1011 -42
969
7-8
16 BZA 966 na
966
3-4
17 an honest man 963 na
963
0-2
18 Linkz 994 -38
956
5-8
19 JeBus 953 na
953
0-2
20 Sam 953 na
953
0-2
21 ICE 951 na
951
2-4
22 YBMP 912 na
912
0-4
23 Magic Magnum 0 new
909
1-2
24 Jaws 0 new
908
0-2
25 Ugvts 847 +10
857
1-10
26 Blue 0 new
795
0-2
Once again I'd like to look at a few interesting things to note with the new ratings. For one, three players that competed in the January event were dropped off the list due to inactivity. These players are Kodie (996), Male (975), and Kyle (950). Should these players chose to return at future events their ratings will pick up where they left off.
Blue's rating ended up much much lower than it would have had he started with a base of 1,000. However this is largely due to the fact that he went 0-2 at his first tournament and lost to players rated 979 and 1011. So when you average those two, and take away 200, you get 795. Blue if you read this I don't want you to be discouraged by this. You are definitely better than your rating shows, and with more rated events under your belt it will undoubtedly improve. I didn't even notice it beforehand but this was your first melee singles tournament of the year (not including low-tier).
-Tempest- was ranked 22nd out of 25 before this event but he stepped up and beat two players higher than him and lost to two players higher than him. He was able to jump his rating 42 points and was very close to climbing into the Springfield top 10.
Sinister came in and dominated, jumping up a whopping 120 points! This is the most we've seen all year so kudos to him.
Magic Magnum and Jaws is an interesting case. MM started 1-2 with a win over Jaws, yet only ended up one point higher than Jaws in the end. This is due largely to the fact that Jaws lost to me when I was over 1200. MM's provisional rating formula was brought down by a loss to Ugvts who was rated only 847. All in all it's a pretty accurate measurement as Jaws and MM appeared to be very close in skill, with Jaws being a new Melee player and MM being a Brawl player.
So that's that for the June supplement. Many interesting things going on and I believe we continue to see the elo ratings reflect more and more accurately. The provisional ratings system will no doubt help maintain accuracy in the future as new players continue to compete in Springfield, MO. Any and all questions are welcomed, as well as other interesting observations!
The June supplemental ratings was based off the following bracket:
http://allisbrawl.com/brackets/bracket10535.gif
EloCalc was used to calculate ratings.