I'm inclined to believe that the Smash bubble has a much more serious negative connotation for this DLC cycle than any time characters have been picked in the past. Sakurai was the one who picked characters from all sort of weird places and gave a home to otherwise irrelevant characters. But Sakurai has implied that he has only picked from the choices Nintendo gave him, and suddenly all of our conceived notions of how characters are chosen goes on its head.
We're flying in to relatively uncharted territory as far as a Smash roster is concerned, and with only Joker to show any sort of idea going forward, there's not much to work on. The more tired discussions that we previously put to bed now have to be thought of in a new light, and I think the Smash bubble has to be one of those things. In the past, none of it mattered as long as Sakurai could get the character and decided they were worthwhile. Now, Nintendo at the helm has noticeably worried people for a reason. Joker (IMO at least) was a great first choice that seemed mostly antithetical to the worst fears of Nintendo advertisement, but will the future hold that same promise? Does Nintendo give a **** in the slightest about a character that has basically the entire fandom centered around Smash and absolutely nothing else?
Again, my hope has been that Geno would either appear popular enough or Sakurai would suggest him at least enough to put him on the mythical Nintendo list... but that's all I've got for his honest chances at this point. If one of those things didn't happen, Geno has no real shot anymore. Because at the end of the day, I will strongly believe Geno's only chance lies with his popularity within the fan base, and I do wonder how far that actually reaches sometimes. He's in a weird place in that I think he's mostly been made popular by the fan base since I doubt many people have discovered Super Mario RPG as of recent, and if they have, I'm still not sure that makes them a Geno fan on principle. His popularity exists because a dedicated group of fans have continued to push for him and show other people how interesting he could be. He's the ultimate fan request moment they could go for because he has so few merits on his own and absolutely would be basically forgotten, if not for the fan base.
I see people often try to push the narrative of Super Mario RPG fan = Geno fan, however, and I do have to disagree with that. As has been mentioned before in this thread, there are lots of elements in Super Mario RPG that have carried on and are independently interesting and relevant to the Mario RPG series. You have to get to a certain point in the game to meet Geno, so anybody who didn't make it far enough never knew who he was. And if they did, they're not necessarily huge fans of him. They often can be, but I don't think he's necessarily endeared himself the same way as he has to the fan base with everyone. Especially when it comes to people trying to use the SNES Classic as a means of showing his popularity... that's a console with 20 other games and I highly suspect a number of people who bought that console never even booted up that specific game (or any of the RPGs for that matter), let alone gave it a playthrough. Geno also gets a handful of people saying he would have a bigger impact than several third parties, and I just cannot see that. No matter how requested he is, I think you're going to see the much bigger reaction with huge crossover moments always. Those are areas where I see his popularity get perhaps the most exaggerated.
But I won't deny, he's also maintained popularity despite the number of detractors and has continually shown up on polls. So he's in a very weird place going into this DLC cycle. He's such an easy win, but do the people at Nintendo of Japan even remember him? And if they do, do they care enough to make a suggestion for his inclusion in Smash when there may be other opportunities on the table?
That's sort of my take on Geno's popularity and situation going in to the DLC. I see Dragon Quest as increasingly likely, but Geno still has a bit of a shot as the dark horse in this Square race since he just will not ever go away thanks to the fans (Which is really, really cool for me at least).