Actually I think Geno has more of a chance in that department then most people give him credit for. Like it or not the Smash community is what is pushing Geno along. There is not one person in the Smash community who doesn't know who Geno is at this point. When it comes to Erdrick, outside of Japan most people are expressing disapproval if not outright hostility towards the idea. Even most Dragon Quest fans seem to be asking for someone else from the series. I feel overall Geno would have the most net positivity towards his reveal. There are not very many people out there that say outright Geno should never be in Smash. And most people that haven't really looked to far into Geno at least admit his addition would make the majority of the Smash community happy.But what has been bothering me the most about all this is that the common idea is all the DLC is just going to be advertisements for upcoming games. It's a large part of where all the Erdrick speculation is coming from. Two upcoming Dragon Quest games coming to the west.
Openly hostile? I haven't seen anything to indicate that sort of mood towards Dragon Quest outside of people who either wanted another Square character and treat the competition like dirt, or people who just like to try and cause controversy for certain choices cause they see the opportunity. The Smash community knowing Geno, unfortunately, means not a whole lot. Yeah, most people on message boards know him really well, but I've seen equal parts vitriol for him in that same community. Geno, again unfortunately, has arguably the most opposition of any popular character choice in a post-Ridley world.
Now, yes, Ridley did make it in. But the problem there is that Ridley had plenty of reason to make it in on his own outside of fan support. Geno relies entirely on fan support to get in. If we hadn't supported him over the years, he'd be a forgotten relic of Super Mario RPG and Nintendo wouldn't even look twice.
It's just tough to say what the Smash community is "pushing" since so much of the community can differ wildly from one place to the next. I certainly think Geno is quite popular with a good portion of the community, but that's again from the more limited places I look and the more hardcore fanbase I choose to interact with. And a good portion of us know EVERYTHING Nintendo related. If we start opening the Smash community more broadly, I think Geno starts to really lose some traction. Geno supporters have done a great job of even having his name penetrate those circles of less involved people, but I still think that people say a little too easily how widespread his popularity is. Anecdotally I've never met anyone who actually knows who Geno is in real life despite many of them being big fans of Smash and telling me their favorite characters to add for example. Obviously I can't apply that super far, but it does at least show a number of Smash fans unaware of his base existence.
Now Dragon Quest may not necessarily more known here, but the key component is that Dragon Quest DOES have a reason to be in Smash beyond any fan support as a major RPG franchise that basically spawned the modern RPG for home consoles with a 30 year connection to Nintendo. I can't influence how people look at the inclusion of the series, but Dragon Quest would be a far cry from "Just an advertisement" as so many people would like to say. Erdrick is not even in the same ballpark as Corrin given his game comes from 30 years ago at this point and again, the series just has weight. Beyond that, people generally accept Smash characters anyway, so I don't see why Dragon Quest would be any different as an addition.
And I say all this as a person who still sees Geno as his most wanted, I'm just somewhat frustrated with seeing Dragon Quest downgraded from it's actual importance and legacy in these discussions, while Super Mario RPG often gets the inverse. I love Super Mario RPG, and have been loving my forays into Dragon Quest so far, but their legacy and impact is a distinctly different question.
The problem with using both Persona and Castlevania as examples is that they were both already popular series around the world before showing up in Smash. So they would already have mass appeal. Dragon Quest doesn't have that luxury. It would be a huge risk for them. That I am not denying they won't try however. I still see Dragon Quest happening just because of the Japanese market. I just think they should go with a character with mass appeal and requested.
I don't know if Persona is the best comparison as Persona 5 is the best selling Persona game and it sold 2 million copies worldwide (
https://www.vg247.com/2017/12/01/pe...es-worldwide-the-highest-sales-in-the-series/ ) while Dragon Quest 11 sold 4 million worldwide with 800,000 in the West (
https://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2018/11/07/dragon-quest-11-sales-numbers-4-million/#/slide/1 ). We've also talked about how there are other million sales DQ titles in the states as well, so I don't see Persona as something massively popular in comparison to DQ.
Especially when again, and I've said this before, the Japanese made game that has so far exclusively incorporated Japanese third parties developed by a massive fan of Japanese games, would be incorporating the biggest Japanese game franchise not currently represented in Smash. I don't think we can ever understate that fact....