[SPOILER ALERT] - The Sevens Squares. - A Square-Enix general support threads.

[OptimisticStrifer]

If so many people hate him, he wouldn't rank high in every newcomers poll my man.

Stop downplaying your Characters and fanbase that much.
Yes, in the grand schemes of things, for Square Enix he's a literal ****ing who.
But in terms of fanbase he's the biggest now after Ridley and K.Rool who are in Ultimate.

Our character only top's polls because we all have collectivized so hard. They are the only thing keeping Geno relevant. At least K.Rool and Ridley were recurring characters!

 

[Captain Fun]

Our character only top's polls because we all have collectivized so hard. They are the only thing keeping Geno relevant. At least K.Rool and Ridley were recurring characters!

So are you arguing in favor of Geno, or...?

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

So are you arguing in favor of Geno, or...?

Of course I'm arguing for him! But this is why Geno needs to be stood up for.

 

[MajoraMan28]

Our character only top's polls because we all have collectivized so hard. >>They are the only thing keeping Geno relevant<<. At least K.Rool and Ridley were recurring characters!

You kinda prove the point why S-E wouldn't consider him as highly as other candidates. Hence Capt. Fun's question to you

 

[Tree Gelbman]

The very reason people discredit Geno is the very reason he just might get in. So many of you believe him to be a ''never ever" situation it seems.

But he's the only never ever situation to get so close to Smash and not actually happen.

Honestly considering this and everything.

The most shocking Square situation would be Geno, Crono or Sora with Donald and Goofy in toe.

Dragon Quest isn't shocking. Another FF character isn't shocking.

I think people expecting Dragon Quest so surely are going to be disappointed and that's just the feeling I have.

In order I'd put them this way of likelyness:

Geno and Crono at the same likelyhood, Sora in third place.

I have a good feeling the Octopath team is working on a remake of either Chrono Trigger or Super Mario RPG for the Switch and one of the two is going to be revealed as Smash DLC side by side with this reveal.

 

[Deleted member]

God I just had a big feeling of deja vu reading the last page for some reason

DaybreakHorizon
Really good post, though I'll admit I skimmed some parts(namely Lara as I'm putting too much weight into the Seven Squares).
I find the DQ section very interesting though, as it counters the main argument against the series(that being "not popular with the west").
I'm also glad you linked that article with their statement in response to Sugiyama's comments. Actually, all the sources really made the whole post a lot more professional and it shows you made your research, I hope you can also put as much effort into your academic papers.

That said, top much of your analysis focuses on Sakurai. He's not making these picks, this time, past comments mean nothing.
Overall, it made me think DQ is even more likely. Not everything needs to be popular with the west and the possibility of boosting the series' popularity here is a chance I believe they'd be willing to take as Japan can cover for any losses in the west lol

 

[Calane]

The very reason people discredit Geno is the very reason he just might get in. So many of you believe him to be a ''never ever" situation it seems.

But he's the only never ever situation to get so close to Smash and not actually happen.

Honestly considering this and everything.

The most shocking Square situation would be Geno, Crono or Sora with Donald and Goofy in toe.

Dragon Quest isn't shocking. Another FF character isn't shocking.

I think people expecting Dragon Quest so surely are going to be disappointed and that's just the feeling I have.

In order I'd put them this way of likelyness:

Geno and Crono at the same likelyhood, Sora in third place.

I have a good feeling the Octopath team is working on a remake of either Chrono Trigger or Super Mario RPG for the Switch and one of the two is going to be revealed as Smash DLC side by side with this reveal.

I would argue that Dragon Quest would be shocking. Or, at least it should have been (if it actually happens).

I mean, think about it. Hardly anybody ever considered that series for Smash until those rumors came out, and if the series was considered at all, people would always point to Slime being the one to rep it.

What I'm trying to say is, if there were no Smash rumors with DQ in it at all, then Erdrick (or Luminary) showing up out of nowhere would probably be just as shocking and unexpected as Joker's reveal for a lot of people.

I know this because I didn't even consider it a possibility before the rumors, and I absolutely love DQ.

Geno, on the other hand, is talked about and predicted all the time. Sure, it'd be a surprise to see him make it, but not as much as an un-rumored Erdrick would be. Nobody would have saw that coming, not even me.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That aside, I'll just put this here since I don't want to double post:

That was a great post, DaybreakHorizon , I enjoyed it a lot!

I'll continue to hold out hope for DQ until this "SE rep" thing is finally settled.

 

[MajoraMan28]

You could make an argument for any of the 7 being shocking, tbh.
Specially for those not keeping up with the info in these forums.

 

[Deleted member]

I would argue that Dragon Quest would be shocking. Or, at least it should have been (if it actually happens).

I mean, think about it. Hardly anybody ever considered that series for Smash until those rumors came out, and if the series was considered at all, people would always point to Slime being the one to rep it.

What I'm trying to say is, if there were no Smash rumors with DQ in it at all, then Erdrick (or Luminary) showing up out of nowhere would probably be just as shocking and unexpected as Joker's reveal for a lot of people.

I know this because I didn't even consider it a possibility before the rumors, and I absolutely love DQ.

Geno, on the other hand, is talked about and predicted all the time. Sure, it'd be a surprise to see him make it, but not as much as an un-rumored Erdrick would be. Nobody would have saw that coming, not even me.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That aside, I'll just put this here since I don't want to double post:

That was a great post, DaybreakHorizon , I enjoyed it a lot!

I'll continue to hold out hope for DQ until this "SE rep" thing is finally settled.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing... This is a great point.

 

[Deleted member]

You could make an argument for any of the 7 being shocking, tbh.
Specially for those not keeping up with the info in these forums.

This is also true. They're all popular and from well known franchises, both to varying degrees but you get what I'm saying.
(sorry for the double post, I meant to edit the first one >_>)

 

[Deleted member]

Shock factor is not going to be the deciding factor, I dunno why people are acting as if that's the one quota a character should fill.

 

[Deleted member]

Shock factor is not going to be the deciding factor, I dunno why people are acting as if that's the one quota a character should fill.

I think that some people are looking too deeply into what Reggie said. At most it was likely just standard marketing jargon, however I'm not a complete doubter of an underlying meaning either.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Dragon Quest's BIGGEST problem is that we already have one ''BIGGER IN JAPAN THAN THE US" series that's an RPG in Persona. Though one might argue that Persona actually managed to pull off what Dragon Quest seems to fail to do, capture Western attention.

And I think that's important.

Dragon Quest holds little to no western attention and therefore seems unlikely for Smash Brothers. I do believe Sakurai and Nintendo would take that into consideration even if Square offered them Dragon Quest.

They've tried to promo this series to the western audience many times. Nothing is seeming to make it a success in Western Countries like it is in Japan. And I very much doubt Smash is going to do it. Once an audience turns you down 3 or more times, maybe it's just time to hang it up and be thankful your success in one country.

Now does it belong in Smash because of it's legacy and all that? Yes, absolutely, but I do believe that it's lack of success in the entire world hurts it's DLC chances. You want to sell DLC you pick characters with worldwide appeal.

Dragon Quest simply isn't that.

 

[EarlTamm]

Dragon Quest's BIGGEST problem is that we already have one ''BIGGER IN JAPAN THAN THE US" series that's an RPG in Persona. Though one might argue that Persona actually managed to pull off what Dragon Quest seems to fail to do, capture Western attention.

But isn't Persona already popular on both sides of the sea. Heck, Persona 5 was the one that made that so, at least from my perspective. Though, Persona 4 certainly gave the foundation for that to happen.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

But isn't Persona already popular on both sides of the sea. Heck, Persona 5 was the one that made that so, at least from my perspective. Though, Persona 4 certainly gave the foundation for that to happen.

Persona's success worldwide started with 3 but really grew with 4 and 5. But I'd still say it'd bigger in it's home country than anywhere else in the world.

And the success across the world is important. Which is why I brought it up.

Dragon Quest has failed to do that. And I think even with it's legacy it won't get into Smash until that problem is corrected or you know Sakurai gives it an exception to his rule he's spoken about that if a character is too centered on one side he tends to overlook them for playable status.

I'm sorry but when over 90 percent of your success is still in one country you kind of fit into this rule. Iconic mother of RPGS be damned.

 

[OpticalBlast]

It's weird that adding a Dragon Quest character makes perfect sense, but at the same time doesn't make sense at all. It's huge in Japan, is backed by Sakurai, and is about to get a Switch release. But at the same time, it lacks Western success and overall Smash demand, and any character they add from the franchise (aside from Slime) would be a literal "who?" to most people.

If it's not a DQ character, it will probably be Geno/Sora/Crono.

 

[MajoraMan28]

Persona's success worldwide started with 3 but really grew with 4 and 5. But I'd still say it'd bigger in it's home country than anywhere else in the world.

And the success across the world is important. Which is why I brought it up.

Dragon Quest has failed to do that. And I think even with it's legacy it won't get into Smash until that problem is corrected or you know Sakurai gives it an exception to his rule he's spoken about that if a character is too centered on one side he tends to overlook them for playable status.

I'm sorry but when over 90 percent of your success is still in one country you kind of fit into this rule. Iconic mother of RPGS be damned.

Well, FE got in even though there was nothing on the US back in the Melee days.
Also, inform yourself a bit better about DQ's history. DQXI didn't blow up as expected, imho, firstly because of S-E not pushing hard enough on the PR front. Secondly, I believe that if the game debuted on the Switch, it would have made a lot more success. I for one have been saving it for the Switch version coming out. I know people who did the same.
But there was one time that DQ had success in the west, and that was DQVIII on the PS2. That game made the series become known worldwide.
IX was a DS title that wasn't a traditional DQ game, while X was a Japan exclusive online game. You see, the game didn't have enough time to have its chance to boom again like it did with VIII. DQXI will have a ressurgence with the Switch version. In fact, S-E will be showing the game 12 days from now at Jump Fiesta 2019.

 

[OptimisticStrifer]

Geno/Sora/Crono seems to be the most likely scenario for me right now. I'd honestly be alright with any of them. I know a lot of people would be thrilled with Sora; I just hope if he gets in, Donald and Goofy are there SOMEWHERE.

 

[Deleted member]

You peoole saying Crono is likely are lying to yourselves.
Incredibly influential RPG? You have DQ for that who's crazy popular in Japan.
Considered by many to be the greatest game of all time? That ain't gonna sell DLC.
Dead character from a SNES RPG? Geno has a vocal fanbase at least.
Actual relevancy? Man, he doesn't even have that.

If you're gonna say DQ's popularity in the west is a problem you can't go on and say Crono is likely immediatelly afterward when his popularity lies within the core fanbase.

Tangebtially related but Crono just beat Mega Man and Bowser in the GameFaqs poll( but if GameFaqs polls decided our characters, we'd have gotten Sans). Pour one out for him though, he's against Cloud in Losers and Cloud was the one who sent him to the Losers Bracket in the first place lmao

 

[OpticalBlast]

You peoole saying Crono is likely are lying to yourselves.
Incredibly influential RPG? You have DQ for that who's crazy popular in Japan.
Considered by many to be the greatest game of all time? That ain't gonna sell DLC.
Dead character from a SNES RPG? Geno has a vocal fanbase at least.
Actual relevancy? Man, he doesn't even have that.

If you're gonna say DQ's popularity in the west is a problem you can't go on and say Crono is likely immediatelly afterward when his popularity lies within the core fanbase.

Tangebtially related but Crono just beat Mega Man and Bowser in the GameFaqs poll( but if GameFaqs polls decided our characters, we'd have gotten Sans). Pour one out for him though, he's against Cloud in Losers and Cloud was the one who sent him to the Losers Bracket in the first place lmao

Sad but true.

DQ's Japanese popularity is absolutely massive, so adding a character from the franchise would make sense. Then again, it makes you wonder why they wouldn't go for someone with worldwide popularity like Sora or something.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

Crono is likely because unlike Dragon Quest characters he'd be recognized worldwide because of how beloved his game is and how revered it as well.

Dragon Quest is just revered and only beloved in Japan.

In the words of Ariana Grande,

Thank U, Next.

 

[Deleted member]

Dragon Quest's BIGGEST problem is that we already have one ''BIGGER IN JAPAN THAN THE US" series that's an RPG in Persona. Though one might argue that Persona actually managed to pull off what Dragon Quest seems to fail to do, capture Western attention.

And I think that's important.

Dragon Quest holds little to no western attention and therefore seems unlikely for Smash Brothers. I do believe Sakurai and Nintendo would take that into consideration even if Square offered them Dragon Quest.

They've tried to promo this series to the western audience many times. Nothing is seeming to make it a success in Western Countries like it is in Japan. And I very much doubt Smash is going to do it. Once an audience turns you down 3 or more times, maybe it's just time to hang it up and be thankful your success in one country.

Now does it belong in Smash because of it's legacy and all that? Yes, absolutely, but I do believe that it's lack of success in the entire world hurts it's DLC chances. You want to sell DLC you pick characters with worldwide appeal.

Dragon Quest simply isn't that.

I think a lot of people underestimate the ability Smash has to promote.
For a lot of people, Smash is what put series like Mother/Earthbound and Xenoblade on the map for them, nearly shooting them into the mainstream.
I think that Dragon Quest would definetely benefit in the west should it have a Smash character, or it would at the very least be considered behind the scenes.

 

[Tree Gelbman]

I think a lot of people underestimate the ability Smash has to promote.
For a lot of people, Smash is what put series like Mother/Earthbound and Xenoblade on the map for them, nearly shooting them into the mainstream.
I think that Dragon Quest would definetely benefit in the west should it have a Smash character, or it would at the very least be considered behind the scenes.

The difference is that with the numerous lifelines Dragon Quest has had in the west. I don't see it having a Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Xenoblade type situation from Smash.

Square has tried many times to make it work. Once you reach that level it's either your advertising sucks or there is simply no interest.

And let's think about the fact that in the case of Fire Emblem and Kid Icarus both those series had to drastically change their formulas to re-capture people's attentions from Smash. Are they willing to go that far to make Dragon Quest popular?

 

[MajoraMan28]

The difference is that with the numerous lifelines Dragon Quest has had in the west. I don't see it having a Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Xenoblade type situation from Smash.

Square has tried many times to make it work. Once you reach that level it's either your advertising sucks or there is simply no interest.

And let's think about the fact that in the case of Fire Emblem and Kid Icarus both those series had to drastically change their formulas to re-capture people's attentions from Smash. Are they willing to go that far to make Dragon Quest popular?

Yeah.. S-E PR sucks, like I said previously. Just check their record.

 

[Deleted member]

Crono is likely because unlike Dragon Quest characters he'd be recognized worldwide because of how beloved his game is and how revered it as well.

Dragon Quest is just revered and only beloved in Japan.

In the words of Ariana Grande,

Thank U, Next.

I mean, yeah, but Slime or just anything that looks like Goku will be recognized easily by the west. It doesn't make sense for Nintendo to ask for Crono and it doesn't make sense for Square to want him in Smash either.

 

[Deleted member]

Yeah.. S-E PR sucks, like I said previously. Just check their record.

Pretty much. Even with all the stuff that was added to the western release of DQ11, they did a terrible job of actually promoting it.

 

[Luigi The President]

Im going to take a break from this forum for awhile friends, I keep seeing the same things being rehashed over and over. And its likely the Square rep will be the fourth or fifth DLC. So thats a long time to keep speculating, and also I will not be near my computer for some weeks as I will be traveling. I still will pop in from time to time to see how everyone is doing and if any news has been released. However I do need to take a step back to focus on other things. Its been fun debating all this, I will still pop in form time to time, but it will be much less than before. GoeGoe DaybreakHorizon @AugustusB EarlTamm Nekoo Luigi The President @osby @PhilosophicAnimal @Jovahexeon Joranvexeon Calane , plus many more. You guys have made this time of speculation excellent, and thanks for putting up with my long speculations and debates. Best of luck to everyone and their Square picks

I just saw this. Please be safe my man. Shoot me a PM any time, I'll make sure to check up on you soon!
Y'all better pour one out; we just lost one of our most polite and articulate members. Miss ya already AGL.

 

[Takasmash]

My Square Enix choice is Neku I dont know why.

 

[Deleted member]

My Square Enix choice is Neku I dont know why.

I think Neku is a total possibility. He's from a decently popular game that recently got re-released on the Switch, with a sequel even apparently being teased. Plus his amazing moveset potential. I don't think I've ever seen anyone outright against him either, lol

 

[-Coco-]

The difference is that with the numerous lifelines Dragon Quest has had in the west. I don't see it having a Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Xenoblade type situation from Smash.

Square has tried many times to make it work.

This is false. They literally tried once and it succeeded. DQ 8 and 9 both sold relatively well compared to older titles. They didn't' stop bringing DQ over because it wasn't selling. Square was going through rough financial times just after 9 hit the west. I'm going to edit this post because it seems like not a lot of people understand why DQ didnt sell as well before and why they're pushing it super hard now.

EDIT: here is Why SE is trying to get DQ to sell in the west and why they're more than willing to give it the push it needs.




Past DQ trials and tribulations can be accounted for a number of various problems and terrible infrastructure in SE's corporate organization.

Such as DQ9 and 6 releasing in the West on the heels of the two largest profit losses in SE's history (at least in terms of internal memo's, as this wouldn't be revealed until later annual reports). So anything with lower priority was shut down. Blood of Bahamut was also likely never localized for the same reason. You can thank Crystal Tools, the Fabula Nova Crytallis game debacles with delays and alterations to the tool kit, changed systems, etc. Though mostly it's FF14 that was the biggest issue, alongside the nearly 90% loss in FF11 subscriptions from over 2.5m to about 250k.

It wasn't like SE was planning on not releasing 9. It's just the timing, and the way their communications network functioned at the time was horrendously slow and apparently money would get lost down the channels constantly for smaller projects. Only major priorities had any chance of releasing. It's just bad timing and really bad management.

Enix days was Enix being idiots but they learned their lesson by 1999...mostly.

SE spent a LOT more money and time promoting DQ11 than DQ8. The convention showcasings for literally every major convention from e3 to release, even one that ended a DAY or two before official release says volumes.

Square Enix actually wants Dragon Quest to become successful in the West to continue forward with their budgets, and to off-set the potential chance of sales shortcomings in Japan if they ever do a console release again.

 

[Takasmash]

I think Neku is a total possibility. He's from a decently popular game that recently got re-released on the Switch, with a sequel even apparently being teased. Plus his amazing moveset potential. I don't think I've ever seen anyone outright against him either, lol

I want to get World Ends With You before Neku probably get reveal in smash ultimate. I want Sora or Chrono Trigger but I dont think those characters are possible they aren't likely I want to be wrong but Im taking Reggie words that DLC characters wont be obvious he did say something like that at the Game Wards after Joker Reveal.

 

[Pinguino21v]

Is there a particular character that you're interested in or are you just throwing it in there as a possibility? I'm curious.

I'm just throwing the idea. The character would be Y'shtola or Alphinaud anyway, and both would add something on the table as mages.

 

[Deleted member]

Here's the post I've been working on and teasing for the past two days. Let me introduce you to:

THE ULTIMATE heh SQUARE ENIX CHARACTER ARGUMENT​

I'm on a month long break, and to keep my brain from rotting out of my head I've decided to write a series of in-depth speculation posts about current popular Smash Bros. Ultimate Speculation and topics that personally interest me within it. The idea of a Square Enix character has been prevalent in this speculation cycle since at least October, and has recently hit a climax with seemingly everyone and their mom having a source and going after information about the elusive Square Enix character. While I've argued with many about Sora, Geno, and Dragon Quest, I wanted to take an in-depth look into every potential Square Enix pick and argue the pros and cons of their inclusion, which led to this. This is a long post—likely the longest I've written and will ever write—clocking in at over 6,000 words. So buckle up, and I hope you enjoy the ride!

Spoiler: Background - On third parties

While Sakurai has commented on third parties in the past, he's been quite vague, only saying that the characters must appear on Nintendo consoles, both companies must want them and Sakurai must have some artistic license, the character must carry history with them, and (more recently) implying that third parties must have worldwide popularity

Based off of this, I'm going to argue that a third party representative must be at least one of two things: historic and iconic

So, let's take a brief look at our current third parties and how they fit this criteria (echoes are considered with their original counterpart):
Snake: Metal Gear Solid had it's starts on old-computer systems and even had an NES port, and was launched into fame thanks to the well-known Metal Gear Solid franchise headed by Hideo Kojima. Granted, Snake's inclusion was a favor to a friend, but the fact still stands that Snake falls under both criteria.
Sonic: The mascot of Sega himself once went toe-to-toe with Mario and Nintendo in one of the most iconic showdowns in gaming history, and even now that Sega's a third party Sonic is still one of the larger video game series despite it's mis-steps. He more than checks off both criteria.
Megaman: Up until Megaman 7 and Megaman X4 the Megaman series was exclusive to Nintendo, making Megaman a hallmark of early Nintendo, and he even appeared as a main character on the 1980s NES-centered cartoon Captain N. The series remained active from the NES era up until the 7th generation (Wii U, PS4, Xbox One) in one way or another before teetering off, but the series has recently been rebooted with Megaman 11 and a new Megaman X game likely in the works. He handily stands under both criteria.
Pac-Man: Dude's an arcade legend. Mostly everyone knows who Pac-Man is, or has played it in some way shape or form. He speaks for himself, 'nuff said.
Ryu: Another arcade legend, but Ryu also made a notable jump into the console market and has remained on top of the Fighting Game Genre since then. He checks off both boxes.
Cloud: Final Fantasy is undoubtedly the most popular JRPG series, and until the Nintendo 64 was synonymous with Nintendo. Final Fantasy VII is one of the most popular games of all time, and represents a moment in gaming history when Square Enix gave Nintendo a big old middle finger and moved over to Playstation. An odd piece of history to represent, but historic and iconic nonetheless.
Bayonetta: I'll admit this is a bit of an odd one to argue given that Bayonetta as a series is much more recent than the other third parties and much less popular. That being said, I'll still argue that she's iconic. The original Bayonetta was a cult classic, and when a sequel couldn't be funded, Nintendo swooped in and paid for it themselves, and she represents this weird moment in Nintendo history when Nintendo funded an M rated series for the failing Wii U. Since then, Bayonetta has (oddly enough) become synonymous with Nintendo in the modern era, making her a natural inclusion
Simon Belmont: Similar to Megaman or Final Fantasy, Castlevania is synonymous with classic Nintendo, and Simon Belmont also appeared on Captain N as a main character. The Castlevania franchise was active and renowned up until Konami canned it towards the end of the 7th generation, even spawning it's own genre of games, the Metroidvania, in it and Metroid's styles. He definitely checks off both criteria
Joker: I'm still in shock that they added him. I never thought it would happen, but it did. Persona 5 marks a distinct shift in both the series and the JRPG genre towards worldwide popularity, selling 2 million copies as of December 1st 2017 making it the highest selling Persona 5. Persona 5 also was a game of the year contender alongside Breath of the Wild and won best RPG at the Game Awards. Joker doesn't just represent Persona 5 though, he also represents Shin Megami Tensei, an iconic series with a long history of Nintendo exclusives, according to the press release for his inclusion in Smash Bros:

In doing so, he checks off both criteria with his inclusion.

So, all of our third parties but 1 are historic and iconic, with the 1 left being iconic but also having special circumstances. This is important to consider.

Spoiler: Background - Why a Square Enix Character?

For one, a Square Enix character in Smash Ultimate has to be one of, if not the worst kept secret in Nintendo history. We've known about this since at least October, and the rumblings of it began as early as March when the game was first teased. While many believe that leakers have been "BTFO" with the advent of no one knowing about Joker or his impending reveal at The Game Awards, too many people have heard about this for it NOT to happen at this point. Unless Nintendo and Square Enix are playing 5 Dimensional Chess and spreading misinformation about there being a Square Enix character for ****s and giggles, we're getting one, and the misinformation is to mask who it is. Of course, we have that supposed list of 7 characters and accounts of who made it to negotiations and who didn't, but seeing as Nintendo have shown themselves capable of spreading convincing misinformation (Every insider claimed we were getting Metroid Prime and no Smash at The Game Awards only for us to get Joker) I would throw everything we know about the Square Enix character out of the window. For the sake of this post, I'll be doing just that, and I'll be arguing why we should ALL do that in my next speculation piece.

Even if the leaks are fake, I believe there's reason to believe that we're getting a Square Enix character. For one, Square Enix has been oddly liberal with their IPs as of late, adding Noctis (Final Fantasy XV) into Tekken, Behemoth (Final Fantasy) in Monster Hunter, Assassin's Creed with Final Fantasy XV, and 2B (Nier: Automata) into Soul Calibur 6. When discussing how Noctis got into Tekken, it was stated that it was due to the relationship between Tekken producer Katsuhiro Harada and Final Fantasy XV director Hajime Tabata, showing that all it takes is some good blood to get the ball rolling. Fortunately, not only is Sakurai friends with Tetsuya Normura, but Square Enix seems to be in a second golden age with Nintendo, with Octopath Traveler performing better than expected. Prior to its release, Square Enix said that if Octopath Traveler was successful, they would focus on the Switch as a console; staying true to their word Square Enix telling those present at an earnings conference to expect more games like Octopath Traveler and creating a division to specifically focus on making Switch games. Square Enix has every reason to go to Nintendo and get a character of their's in Nintendo; it's win-win, they get exposure for one of their series, and Nintendo gets massive press for Smash Bros.

So then the question becomes: which one?

Spoiler: Erdrick/Dragon Quest Character

This is what inspired me to write this post, given that people have argued for Sora, Geno, and other roster picks citing all of these articles but never Erdrick or another Dragon Quest character. You can thank me later Calane

Anyways, let's begin with a history lesson. Dragon Quest is the grandfather of the entire RPG genre, with the first game in the series releasing on the NES an entire year and a half before the first Final Fantasy game. It is Square Enix's 2nd best selling series, sitting at 75 million units sold as of a year ago between its main titles and spin-offs, and has a long history with Nintendo, with every main entry in the series being playable on Nintendo consoles (only 2 of 11 main series games weren't on Nintendo consoles initially, being 7 and 8, though they later received 3DS remakes). Nintendo even published Dragon Quest I, VI, VII, VIII, and IX within Western countries. IX is notable as it was a third-party DS game published by Nintendo, something only done for Dragon Quest and Level-5 games in the DS era. Mario and co. have also crossed over with the Dragon Quest bunch multiple times in the Fortune Street series, creating a precedent for a crossover between Nintendo and Dragon Quest. More recently, Dragon Quest XI was one of the first games revealed for the Nintendo Switch, then called the Nintendo NX, and more recently has been announced to be an upgraded version named Dragon Quest XI S (appearing at this year's Jump Festa), which will include voice acting among other new features. Needless to say, the ties between Nintendo and Dragon Quest are VERY strong.

Additionally Dragon Quest's is a cultural phenomenon in Japan. This game series is so large that it's spawned an urban myth on the level of "the average human eats 8 spiders in their sleep per year" about there being a law that Dragon Quest games had to be released on weekends, or that when Dragon Quest games released it was akin to a national holiday. While there is a Dragon Quest Day, it's an unofficial holiday, and in reality, 300 kids were arrested for truancy when Dragon Quest III released and muggings of Dragon Quest games became so widespread that there were hearings about in the Japanese parliament, leading the developers to feel bad about creating a nationwide issue and moving the game's release dates to the weekend. The series is large enough to be a common conversation topic in Japan, and is considered by many within the Japanese gaming industry to be Japan's national game. I **** you not, this series is so big that it caused the entire staff of the HiatusxHiatus HunterxHunter anime to go on hiatus JUST TO PLAY DRAGON QUEST, the series has a world record in the Guinness Book of World Records for being the first game to inspire a ballet, and has an amusement park attraction at Universal Studios Japan (where Nintendo will be soon), that's is how big this series is.

Due to Dragon Quest's Japanese popularity, Sakurai talks about it quite a bit. In the Sakurai x Normura Interview Sakurai mentions game designer Yosuke Saito (who worked on Dragon Quest X) on "a list of game designers born in 1970, [where] there's quite a few big names" alongside Hideki Kamiya, Yoko Taro, and John Carmack, and participated in a roundtable discussion with series creator Yuji Horii and Junichi Masuda of Pokémon fame where they discussed Dragon Quest XI. He's notably advocated for the series twice, first in 2011 when he stood up for Dragon Quest X and expressed that he looks forward to it, and plays Devil's Advocate for the series' difficulty, also directly acknowledging the series' popularity in the process, and went far as finding a workaround to play Dragon Quest Heroes among other games while recovering from his arm injury.. Sakurai also notably lists Dragon Quest III alongside Megaman, Final Fantasy, and Ocarina of Time among others when talking about anniversaries, and COMPARES KIRBY (you know, that one character that HE CREATED AND TREATS LIKE HIS CHILD) TO THE MAIN CHARACTER OF A DRAGON QUEST GAME. Needless to say, Dragon Quest is on Sakurai's radar.

Now, to address the common counterarguments:
The first is the series' western popularity. While the series is certainly historic, and is amazingly popular in Japan, it largely lacks a presence in the West, with 3 million+ out of 4 million copies (more than 75%) of Dragon Quest XI being sold in Japan instead of the West. It's no small secret that Square Enix has been fighting a decades long battle (sometimes alongside Nintendo) to make Dragon Quest popular in the West, and it seems like they're stacking the deck to make Dragon Quest XI the game that breaks through. I believe that Square Enix would be willing to make a gamble on the inclusion of a Dragon Quest character in Smash Bros. in an attempt to boost the series' western popularity. We've seen a good amount people interested in playing Persona with the inclusion of Joker, and "the Smash effect" could similarly boost Dragon Quest's western sales in the future.

Second, the licensing. Many people cite Dragon Quest as a "licensing nightmare" in an attempt to discredit the series' inclusion, but it's not as complicated as you'd think. Dragon Quest as a whole is between four parties: Square Enix (Development, IP ownership), Armor Project (game design), Bird Studio (character design), and Koichi Sugiyama (music). Of those four, two are no problem to deal with, being Square Enix and Armor Project, run by series' director Yuji Horii, both of whom have benefitted from positive relations with Nintendo and would no doubt like to have a Dragon Quest character in Smash to boost the series' Western popularity. That leaves Bird Studio, run by Akira Toriyama, and Koichi Sugiyama as the wildcards in rights negotiation for Dragon Quest content. However, I'm willing to believe that both will cooperate. For one, Akira Toriyama worked closely alongside Arc System Works and Namco Bandai to design Android 21, an original character, for Dragon Ball Fighterz. Namco's involvement in this scenario is notable, as they're also developer Smash Bros. Ultimate, and using their connections developing the Dragon Ball games, could bring Toriyama to the negotiating table if he isn't already there. Additionally, in developing at least Fighterz, the developers worked alongside Toei Animation and Shueisha instead of Toriyama, who made slight changes to the game to fit with the Dragon Ball IP, which could be taken as Toriyama taking a back seat when it comes to adaptations of his work. Given how many Dragon Ball games have been made, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case Goku, his star character, has been licensed out on a couple of occasions to Fuji TV and is the ambassador of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games, which leaves me with little doubt he'd be willing to work with Nintendo on a Dragon Quest character for Smash Bros (one of the largest crossovers ever) and grant Sakurai the proper artistic license to make a Dragon Quest character a reasonable inclusion. As for Sugiyama? The use of midi music files has been suggested multiple times and could be a viable way to get Dragon Quest into Smash Bros. if needed. If Nintendo and Sakurai decide to go the orchestral route they might run into trouble due to either money or Sugiyama's seeming unwillingness to let us worldwide players have orchestral music (this is overblown, however, as Dragon Quest XI had a midi soundtrack worldwide instead of just in the West), which is the only problem I could viably see happening. However, Nintendo has dealt with this before and will do it again if negotiations go right, at worst we just end up with midis instead of orchestral music and remixes. As for the controversy surrounding Sugiyama, that's a nonissue, given that Square Enix has made a statement about it saying that it doesn't speak to company policy and are moving ahead with Dragon Quest anyways.

If Square Enix has the chance to push Dragon Quest, I could easily see them doing so. I see a Dragon Quest character as one of, if not the likeliest Square Enix character given that everything seems to line up for it. Dragon Quest is the most historic choice, and while not iconic worldwide, has the proper circumstances surrounding it to make up for that fact and justify it's inclusion in Smash.

Spoiler: Sora

Surprise surprise, one of the top Sora supporters here is going to post a lengthy argument for him. While many have counted him out time and time again, there is a solid case to be made for Sora. As mentioned before, I'm not going to address insider information as I believe it should be thrown out the window (I'll elaborate on this in another mini-essay).

Kingdom Hearts is one of Square Enix's more notable series, selling 24 million units worldwide as of November 2017 making it Square Enix's fourth best selling series. While this may initially seem unimpressive, this is across only 15 titles (2 of which were remakes and 5 of which were collections of previous games). Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Tomb Raider, Square Enix's top 3 best selling series, clock in at 54 titles, 29 titles, and 30 titles respectively. For Kingdom Hearts to accomplish that much in such a little amount is impressive. The series is a collaboration between Disney and Square Enix and uses both the Disney and Final Fantasy IPs alongside original characters, such as Sora. By sole merit of possessing Disney content a majority of people will know at least something about Kingdom Hearts. The series is also known for Kingdom Hearts 3, which at one point stood alongside games such as Duke Nukem Forever and Half-Life 3 as a game in a popular series trapped in development hell and became a meme within the gaming community because of this; Kingdom Hearts 3 has been teased since 2005, and ever since it's official announcement it's consistently placed within Japanese Gaming Magazine Famitsu's Weekly Most Wanted Games poll, showing Japanese popularity. On the Western front, Kingdom Hearts 3 won 16 awards out 29 nominations at E3 2018, which I believe is a good sign of Western popularity.

Stemming from Kingdom Heart's popularity, demand for Sora in Smash Bros. exists, and it's a lot larger than some would expect. Going back to the Smash Ballot era, the entire Kingdom Hearts community rallied behind Sora, with prominent Kingdom Hearts youtubers HMK and TheGamersJoint (at 36,000 and 59,000 subscribers respectively at the time) both making videos telling their fans to vote for Sora in the ballot. More recently, fans have been more vocal about their wants, with the king of Sm4sh, Zero, voicing his support for Sora and HMK telling a Disney executive to his face that the fans want Sora in Smash alongside reasons for his inclusion. Sora ranked number 1 on an Italian Smash Bros. Fighter Poll, number 5 for large Japanese magazine Inside's most anticipated Smash Bros. character, and number 5 on the Reddit Smash Ultimate Poll with 12,485 votes. Further evidence for an impressive ballot performance for Sora comes from the fact that in the Reddit Ultimate Poll: "The character with the most brigaders (was) Sora (more than half his voters came from non-reddit referrers). This shows that Kingdom Hearts fans care enough about Sora in Smash to vote on a large, unofficial Reddit poll, which would certainly translate to an official Nintendo ballot. Support for Sora even exists within Square Enix, as evidenced by this deleted tweet from series producer and Square Enix executive Shinji Hashimoto. Needless to say, there's a lot of people who want to see Sora in Smash Bros.

As a character, Sora is in an interesting place. While Sora is owned by Disney for all legal purposes, Disney and Square Enix have a gentlemen's agreement between them where Disney has to approach series director Tetsuya Normura and Square Enix to use him in any sort of marketing (source). This gentlemen's agreement is highly important, as evidenced by the canceled 2002 Kingdom Hearts cartoon series—which was canceled "so as to not jeopardize the relationship between Square Enix & Disney as they began to expand the franchise"—and more recently, the canceled Disney Kingdom Hearts game which is speculated to have been canceled due to Square Enix's disapproval. According to Disney of Japan executive Justin Scarpone, the process for negotiating Sora in Smash would go as such:

• Nintendo approaches Disney for negotiations
• Assuming fan demand exists, approval from Normura and Square Enix would be required
• Disney would then work alongside Nintendo to represent Sora accurately.

Let's go through this process bit by bit and look at some of the moving parts here.

To begin, Nintendo needs to convince Disney. This is where the most error can occur, and where the most variability in speculation exists. On one hand, you have users who have worked with Disney or know people who have worked with Disney such as @NonSpecificGuy and @PlayerOneTyler who express how difficult it is to work with Disney legal for even minor things, but you also have the claim from Scarpone that Disney "isn't restrictive, but particular," examples of Disney cross-promotion in video games, such as:

• Thanos in Fortnite in a time-exclusive game mode (one which seems to be making a return soon)
• Most recently, Wreck-It-Ralph in Fortnite
• Wreck-It-Ralph in Sonic and Sega All-Stars racing

and factors hinting that Disney may not be as soulless as some imagine them to be, such as Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3's exclusivity to Nintendo Switch (when it could make more money being multiplatform) and Normura being the one who decided to not make a Disney fighting game and not Disney. Additionally, Nintendo and Disney seem to be on good terms given the aforementioned exclusivity of Ultimate Alliance 3, the game show that the two made together about the Nintendo Switch, and the fact that Disney XD has streamed events such as the Sm4sh Wii U finals at EVO 2017 and if I recall correctly, the Invitational tournaments. Disney and Nintendo go way back past this, as far as the pre-NES era, and interestingly enough, Nintendo has also published games with Disney characters such as Epic Mickey (in Japan) and Disney's Magical Mirror Starring Mickey Mouse, which makes Disney similar to Dragon Quest in that regard. Overall, negotiations with Disney is a coinflip, but I believe that it's possible, especially if Nintendo and Disney work out a deal outside of Smash (similar to how Ralph ended up in Sega All-Stars racing due to Sonic being in Wreck-It-Ralph).

We've established that fan demand for Sora exists. Getting Normura's approval would be easy given Sakurai's positive relationship with Normura (he even praised Normura and his team for Kingdom Heart's 15th anniversary and expressed that he was a fan of the series), and extending to Square Enix Hashimoto's support of Sora bodes well for Nintendo getting general approval for Sora. While Square Enix has proven themselves difficult to work with, I believe with pressure from inside the company it's likely they'll get approval.

Now, all Sakurai and his team need to do is work alongside Disney to faithfully represent Sora. The question here is whether Disney will give Sakurai the artistic liberty required for him to work, and I'd say that it's 75:25. I could see it going down like how Toei and Shueishi worked alongside Arc System Works for Fighterz where they only made incredibly minor changes, and I trust that if anyone can represent Sora accurately, it's Sakurai; guy's the king of accurate character representation.

Overall, I would give Sora 50/50 chances depending on whether or not Disney can play nice with Nintendo. I would say he's more likely than people think, but I acknowledge that negotiations with him could be difficult enough to consider pursuing another option. However, Sora checks off both boxes (Kingdom Hearts is both an iconic and historic crossover) and his popularity would generate a large amount of sales and press for Smash Bros.

Spoiler: Geno

What's this? tehponycorn arguing for Geno instead of against him? Surely that's impossible! Well, it is, my reputation as a supposed "Geno basher" be damned. This one goes out to my girl Luigi The President - never stop dreaming

Let's start with the most prominent point in Geno's favor: the Sakurai Interview. We all know the one.

Even the interviewer acknowledges Geno's popularity, saying

So, we have a direct statement from Sakurai saying that he wanted Geno in the game for Brawl and Sm4sh, and acknowledgement of his popularity. This is hands down the best point in his favor. Geno, similar to the other two members of the Holy Trinity composed of himself, Ridley, and King K. Rool—the latter two of which were newcomers for Ultimate—has managed to remain a popular speculation pick within the Smash Bros. community since Brawl, and consistently ranks high within fan polls across the core fanbase (the fan polls linked came from Twitter, Reddit, 4chan's /v/, and SourceGaming among other sources). His Mii Costume also got it's own splash screen, making it notable as no other Mii Costumes got that level of preferential treatment, and Spirits of him and Mallow are the only Square Enix spirits to appear besides Cloud, meaning that someone is pushing for his inclusion, or at least acknowledgement, in Smash Bros.

The game he's from, Super Mario RPG for the SNES, isn't a slouch in terms of notoriety. For one, it's revered to this day as a classic SNES RPG alongside Crono Trigger and Final Fantasy 6, and sold 2.14 million copies in it's original run, with rereleases on the Wii and Wii U virtual console and most recently a rerelease on the SNES classic, which has sold over 5 million units (as of March 2018).

Another argument in favor of Geno is how simple it would be to acquire the rights to him. Compared to the messes that are Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, and even Final Fantasy with it's music, all Nintendo would need to do is get the rights for Geno and Super Mario RPG content. The main composer for the game, Yoko Shimomura, is already onboard for Smash Ultimate, facilitating negotiations for music and introducing the possibilities of remixes and making for an easy process to acquire Geno and include him in Smash Bros. Geno would also represent the culmination Nintendo and Square Enix's first golden age, which is incredibly fitting seeing as they're currently entering their second one.

All that being said, there are valid counterarguments for each of the above points.

Geno's popularity cannot be denied due to Sakurai and the Nintendo Dream Interviewer's direct acknowledgement of it. If Sakurai has wanted Geno in since Brawl, however, then why hasn't he been added? Pac-Man, Villager, and Miis, all previously considered characters for Brawl similar to Geno, made the jump to playable status in Smash 4, and even Ridley, a character that Sakurai famously denied, made the jump in Smash Ultimate. So then why hasn't Geno, a character that's been seriously considered for the last two entries, made a similar jump? The most common theory currently is that Square Enix refuses to give Sakurai and co. the license to use Geno as a playable character; why add Geno when another, more relevant character could be added to promote a current series for Square Enix? Remember, Square Enix is all about cross-promotion in their crossover deals, and Geno hasn't had a game release in 20 years.

However, Square Enix did give Sakurai and co. the rights to make a mii costume and include Spirits of the characters in Smash Ultimate, so they're not completely opposed to the prospect of Geno in Smash. I imagine that negotiating for a mii costume and literal .png files is much easier than negotiating for a playable character though. The argument of "would Square Enix grant Nintendo the rights to Geno" is one that is difficult to answer because both sides are valid. It would be incredibly easy to get Geno in Smash Bros. compared to other Square Enix characters, making his inclusion the one with the least risk.

While Geno always performs well in fan polls, fan polls, by nature, are susceptible to Voluntary Response Bias, which skews statistical data when the sample size is composed of self-selected volunteers. People who participate in polls conducted by the core fanbase are more likely to vote for characters widely supported by the core fanbase, i.e. Geno. This is further evidenced by the Ultimate Reddit poll, wherein Sora and Phoenix Wright, two nonstandard picks for the core fanbase, performed very well due to the high number of brigaders for those characters. Within that same fan poll, it was stated that most of Geno's support came from the United States, showing that he isn't nearly as popular abroad as he is here. While fan polls are a great general indicator of the fanbase's wishes, they can't be relied on for hard evidence due to the bias present in them by nature. I would say that given the larger size of the Ultimate Reddit poll, it can be trusted relatively well, but it still doesn't account for the large, silent, casual fanbase, who are equally as valid as the core fanbase. While the core fanbase would be ecstatic about Geno, the casual fanbase would likely not know who he is given the low sales of his game compared to Square Enix's other series (while he did appear on the SNES Classic, it's worth noting that many purchases of the SNES Classic was marketed towards those looking to re-experience the classic SNES games of their youth, and therefore many purchases of the SNES Classic were from people who likely already knew about Geno or bought the console for another game unrelated to him). From this, while Geno's inclusion has the least risk, it also likely has the least reward.

Finally, as a miscellaneous point, multiple other Mii characters got splash screens, such as Abraham Lincoln, Elijah Wood, and Ice T alongside members of the J-Pop idol group AKB48. I also swear that Nikki from Swapnote got her own little trailer as a Mii Fighter, but was unable to find any proof of such. This may be tangental to the prominence of the splash screen for Geno's costume seeing that it's a character costume and not just a mii alongside the fact that Geno is a third party character, but I still believe it's a point worth mentioning that Geno could've just been a marketable face similar to the former characters.

Overall, I give Geno a 50/50 chance depending on whether or not Square Enix and Nintendo want to go the easy route. I personally doubt that they would, but I understand that there's a case to be made for them doing so. Despite my own biases, I acknowledge that both sides have equal weight, and Geno is truly a tossup at this point; he's historic, but it's kind of reach, and he's not iconic, but could maybe have the extenuating circumstances required to make up for that. It's truly difficult to tell.

Spoiler: Final Fantasy Character

I'm condensing every possible Final Fantasy fighter into one for the sake of my own sanity, as there are so many possible fighters here. So, I'm going to be arguing for the series' merits and then listing some characters I believe could be our second Final Fantasy rep if we get one.

Final Fantasy is Square Enix's flagship franchise, selling over 144 million units as of March 2018. That's a little under double that of Dragon Quest, Square Enix's next best selling series. This also shows in the promotion that the series receives, such as the aforementioned Noctis in Tekken, Assassin's Creed in Final Fantasy XV, and Behemoth in Tekken (see Background - Why a Square Enix Character?) alongside, you know, . Sakurai even acknowledged this within the Nintendo Dream Interview by calling it

So, it would be a safe pick for Square Enix to go for another Square Enix series, given the long history the series has with Nintendo and the many iconic characters within the series. However, with that many characters, who would they choose next? I have four ideas:

Bartz Klauser
Protagonist of Final Fantasy V for the SNES, mentioned within the same interview as Cloud by Sakurai, who remarked that a moveset about switching jobs could be "interesting." Sakurai has previously dropped things within interviews that were prominent, such as how Castlevania impacted him similar to the Legend of Zelda and how excited he was to play Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow prior to Simon's reveal.

Onion Knight
Mentioned within the same interview as Bartz, but isn't as likely given that it was Japan-exclusive until 2006.

Terra Branford
A little bit of personal speculation on my part, but given how Final Fantasy 6 is often held as one of the best JRPGs of all time and is prominently on Nintendo console, it would make sense for her to be our second Final Fantasy pick.

Sephiroth
Final Fantasy 7 is already on the table given Cloud's inclusion, so it'd be relatively easy to secure the character rights for him. Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming history, and anyone who knows about Cloud will know about his age old rival Sephiroth.

Despite it being Square Enix's flagship franchise and having a bevy of characters to choose from, there are barriers to inclusion for a Final Fantasy character. For one, the way that licensing for Final Fantasy is handled scatters the rights to music and different components among the creators of those works. This leads to what could be costly licensing fees for Nintendo, to the point where it's simply not worth to negotiate for music. Additionally, no precedent for a series having two unique characters exists. While this is nothing but a fan rule that could easily be shattered, it's still worth noting, especially when both Bayonetta and Joker—both owned by Sega—got in over another Sonic character.

While I certainly wouldn't discount the inclusion of another Final Fantasy character, I also wouldn't see it as the most likely scenario.

Spoiler: Lara Croft

Tomb Raider is Square Enix's third best selling series, selling 60 million units as of March 2018 and defining the action adventure genre later refined by series such as Uncharted. Tomb Raider is also notable due to its status as a cultural phenomenon, as its spawned three movies, multiple soundtracks, a TV series, and multiple comic series and novelizations over the years. The only other Square Enix series to come close to this is Dragon Quest, and even then it lacks the worldwide appeal that Tomb Raider does. Lara Croft is an iconic character, and you'd be hard pressed to find a top 10 women in video games list without her, with her even winning the world record for "most successful female video game character" within the 2010 Guinness Book of World Records. This was before the series' remake, mind you, meaning that she and her series have only become more successful since then.

There are a couple of barriers for Laura's inclusion, however. For one, she's more associated with Playstation and Xbox than Nintendo. While we do have characters more known for appearances on Playstation systems, being Snake, Cloud, and Joker, each of them have some sort of circumstance behind that, with Snake largely being a favor for a friend, and Cloud and Joker representing Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei, two series with historic ties to Nintendo. Lara Croft lacks either of these circumstances, which is significant. Furthermore, she uses realistic weaponry, such as her signature dual pistols, for most of her attacks, and it is unknown whether this could translate into to Smash similar to Snake or Bayonetta, both of whom were toned down in that regard. Finally, she's a British developed character, which subjects her to the stigma against Western character which seems to be present within the series, with Diddy Kong, King K. Rool, and Dark Samus being the only character created outside of Japan.


While Lara Croft as the Square Enix character is worth being discussed, I would say that she's the dark horse pick of the bunch and is overall unlikely. Keep her in mind though.

Spoiler: Gex

YOU THOUGHT I WAS SERIOUSLY GOING TO ARGUE FOR GEX?!

Joking aside, Gex has appeared on Nintendo consoles before, and his three games have sold a total of 15 million units worldwide, which is nothing to laugh at. I'd say it's more possible than you'd think, but still very unlikely.

Spoiler: Misc.

I acknowledge that the Square Enix character could be someone not previously argued for. So, I'm going to be doing small arguments for other character I believe could be the Square Enix rep, but wouldn't necessarily hold out hopes for.
Crono
Crono almost got his own section, but in the end I couldn't justify that as much as I could justify using him to start this section. Similar to Terra and Final Fantasy 6, Chrono Trigger appears on many, if not every list of the greatest JRPGs of all time. However, he's in a similar place as Geno wherein he hasn't had a recent game in his series for around 20 years, but doesn't have the vocal fanbase to keep him going.

Neku Sakuraba
The World Ends With You is a critically acclaimed cult classic (that's a tongue-twister) that's appeared on the Nintendo DS and iOS/Android alongside the Nintendo Switch. That said, it's only a cult classic and has failed to establish itself as a series. I would say he has good chances as a predominantly Nintendo character, but compared to other, larger Square Enix picks he fails to compare.

Agnès Oblige
Another Square Enix character predominantly on Nintendo systems, Bravely Default 1 & 2 were critically acclaimed JRPGs on the 3DS. However, with a third entry in the series for Nintendo Switch unconfirmed, she lacks the relevance required to make her a notable pick for DLC.

2B
While 2B is a popular Square Enix character and has even made an appearance in Soul Calibur 6 as a playable character, she's never appeared on a Nintendo console and is therefore ineligible for Smash Bros. Sorry @NineS.

Spoiler: Wrap-Up: My Thoughts

If I had to bet on which Square Enix character I think will get in, I'd put all my money on Dragon Quest. Every factor seems to line up in the series' favor, and the most notable counterarguments are made up for and can't really be used against it. If I had to make a chart for it, it would go like this:

Dragon Quest >> Final Fantasy Character > Lara Croft > Geno = Sora = Crono > Neku > Anyone else

While speculation about the Square Enix representative was initially exciting, I've quickly found it to become tiring and monotonous, as speculation continues to circle around the same rehashed topics and every time we get a new piece of information we end up right where we started in terms of what we know. Hopefully this piece clears up some misconceptions and offers some closure to the circuitous arguments that the fanbase has found itself mired in. At this point I would suggest that everyone just sit back and relax, for it seems like similar to Mr. Bone, Mr. Square Enix's wild ride won't be ending anytime soon.

I didn't see this until now... What I'd like to say though is, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR MENTIONING BARTZ.
And also thank you for this great in depth analysis.

 

[Luigifan18]

The difference is that with the numerous lifelines Dragon Quest has had in the west. I don't see it having a Fire Emblem, Kid Icarus, Xenoblade type situation from Smash.

Square has tried many times to make it work. Once you reach that level it's either your advertising sucks or there is simply no interest.

And let's think about the fact that in the case of Fire Emblem and Kid Icarus both those series had to drastically change their formulas to re-capture people's attentions from Smash. Are they willing to go that far to make Dragon Quest popular?

I assume the FE formula changes you refer to are getting grind-happy and ship-happy?

 

[GoeGoe]

Im going to take a break from this forum for awhile friends, I keep seeing the same things being rehashed over and over. And its likely the Square rep will be the fourth or fifth DLC. So thats a long time to keep speculating, and also I will not be near my computer for some weeks as I will be traveling. I still will pop in from time to time to see how everyone is doing and if any news has been released. However I do need to take a step back to focus on other things. Its been fun debating all this, I will still pop in form time to time, but it will be much less than before. GoeGoe DaybreakHorizon @AugustusB EarlTamm Nekoo Luigi The President @osby @PhilosophicAnimal @Jovahexeon Joranvexeon Calane , plus many more. You guys have made this time of speculation excellent, and thanks for putting up with my long speculations and debates. Best of luck to everyone and their Square picks

Have a safe trip my buddy O/

 

[OpticalBlast]

The only way I could see Crono joining at this point was if Nintendo found out they had to add a Square character, saw the Goku votes in the Ballot, and thought, "Who's recognizable and kind of looks like Goku?"

I'm half-joking, but still.

 

[Icewolff92]

The only way I could see Crono joining at this point was if Nintendo found out they had to add a Square character, saw the Goku votes in the Ballot, and thought, "Who's recognizable and kind of looks like Goku?"

I'm half-joking, but still.

I mean... Nintendo knows about the "demands" of Goku to the point that they pointed out "only video game characters", so who knows if they want to troll them. I mean, I could easily see Sakurai wanting to do so.

 

[Deleted member]

Here's the post I've been working on and teasing for the past two days. Let me introduce you to:

THE ULTIMATE heh SQUARE ENIX CHARACTER ARGUMENT​

I'm on a month long break, and to keep my brain from rotting out of my head I've decided to write a series of in-depth speculation posts about current popular Smash Bros. Ultimate Speculation and topics that personally interest me within it. The idea of a Square Enix character has been prevalent in this speculation cycle since at least October, and has recently hit a climax with seemingly everyone and their mom having a source and going after information about the elusive Square Enix character. While I've argued with many about Sora, Geno, and Dragon Quest, I wanted to take an in-depth look into every potential Square Enix pick and argue the pros and cons of their inclusion, which led to this. This is a long post—likely the longest I've written and will ever write—clocking in at over 6,000 words. So buckle up, and I hope you enjoy the ride!

Spoiler: Background - On third parties

While Sakurai has commented on third parties in the past, he's been quite vague, only saying that the characters must appear on Nintendo consoles, both companies must want them and Sakurai must have some artistic license, the character must carry history with them, and (more recently) implying that third parties must have worldwide popularity

Based off of this, I'm going to argue that a third party representative must be at least one of two things: historic and iconic

So, let's take a brief look at our current third parties and how they fit this criteria (echoes are considered with their original counterpart):
Snake: Metal Gear Solid had it's starts on old-computer systems and even had an NES port, and was launched into fame thanks to the well-known Metal Gear Solid franchise headed by Hideo Kojima. Granted, Snake's inclusion was a favor to a friend, but the fact still stands that Snake falls under both criteria.
Sonic: The mascot of Sega himself once went toe-to-toe with Mario and Nintendo in one of the most iconic showdowns in gaming history, and even now that Sega's a third party Sonic is still one of the larger video game series despite it's mis-steps. He more than checks off both criteria.
Megaman: Up until Megaman 7 and Megaman X4 the Megaman series was exclusive to Nintendo, making Megaman a hallmark of early Nintendo, and he even appeared as a main character on the 1980s NES-centered cartoon Captain N. The series remained active from the NES era up until the 7th generation (Wii U, PS4, Xbox One) in one way or another before teetering off, but the series has recently been rebooted with Megaman 11 and a new Megaman X game likely in the works. He handily stands under both criteria.
Pac-Man: Dude's an arcade legend. Mostly everyone knows who Pac-Man is, or has played it in some way shape or form. He speaks for himself, 'nuff said.
Ryu: Another arcade legend, but Ryu also made a notable jump into the console market and has remained on top of the Fighting Game Genre since then. He checks off both boxes.
Cloud: Final Fantasy is undoubtedly the most popular JRPG series, and until the Nintendo 64 was synonymous with Nintendo. Final Fantasy VII is one of the most popular games of all time, and represents a moment in gaming history when Square Enix gave Nintendo a big old middle finger and moved over to Playstation. An odd piece of history to represent, but historic and iconic nonetheless.
Bayonetta: I'll admit this is a bit of an odd one to argue given that Bayonetta as a series is much more recent than the other third parties and much less popular. That being said, I'll still argue that she's iconic. The original Bayonetta was a cult classic, and when a sequel couldn't be funded, Nintendo swooped in and paid for it themselves, and she represents this weird moment in Nintendo history when Nintendo funded an M rated series for the failing Wii U. Since then, Bayonetta has (oddly enough) become synonymous with Nintendo in the modern era, making her a natural inclusion
Simon Belmont: Similar to Megaman or Final Fantasy, Castlevania is synonymous with classic Nintendo, and Simon Belmont also appeared on Captain N as a main character. The Castlevania franchise was active and renowned up until Konami canned it towards the end of the 7th generation, even spawning it's own genre of games, the Metroidvania, in it and Metroid's styles. He definitely checks off both criteria
Joker: I'm still in shock that they added him. I never thought it would happen, but it did. Persona 5 marks a distinct shift in both the series and the JRPG genre towards worldwide popularity, selling 2 million copies as of December 1st 2017 making it the highest selling Persona 5. Persona 5 also was a game of the year contender alongside Breath of the Wild and won best RPG at the Game Awards. Joker doesn't just represent Persona 5 though, he also represents Shin Megami Tensei, an iconic series with a long history of Nintendo exclusives, according to the press release for his inclusion in Smash Bros:

In doing so, he checks off both criteria with his inclusion.

So, all of our third parties but 1 are historic and iconic, with the 1 left being iconic but also having special circumstances. This is important to consider.

Spoiler: Background - Why a Square Enix Character?

For one, a Square Enix character in Smash Ultimate has to be one of, if not the worst kept secret in Nintendo history. We've known about this since at least October, and the rumblings of it began as early as March when the game was first teased. While many believe that leakers have been "BTFO" with the advent of no one knowing about Joker or his impending reveal at The Game Awards, too many people have heard about this for it NOT to happen at this point. Unless Nintendo and Square Enix are playing 5 Dimensional Chess and spreading misinformation about there being a Square Enix character for ****s and giggles, we're getting one, and the misinformation is to mask who it is. Of course, we have that supposed list of 7 characters and accounts of who made it to negotiations and who didn't, but seeing as Nintendo have shown themselves capable of spreading convincing misinformation (Every insider claimed we were getting Metroid Prime and no Smash at The Game Awards only for us to get Joker) I would throw everything we know about the Square Enix character out of the window. For the sake of this post, I'll be doing just that, and I'll be arguing why we should ALL do that in my next speculation piece.

Even if the leaks are fake, I believe there's reason to believe that we're getting a Square Enix character. For one, Square Enix has been oddly liberal with their IPs as of late, adding Noctis (Final Fantasy XV) into Tekken, Behemoth (Final Fantasy) in Monster Hunter, Assassin's Creed with Final Fantasy XV, and 2B (Nier: Automata) into Soul Calibur 6. When discussing how Noctis got into Tekken, it was stated that it was due to the relationship between Tekken producer Katsuhiro Harada and Final Fantasy XV director Hajime Tabata, showing that all it takes is some good blood to get the ball rolling. Fortunately, not only is Sakurai friends with Tetsuya Normura, but Square Enix seems to be in a second golden age with Nintendo, with Octopath Traveler performing better than expected. Prior to its release, Square Enix said that if Octopath Traveler was successful, they would focus on the Switch as a console; staying true to their word Square Enix telling those present at an earnings conference to expect more games like Octopath Traveler and creating a division to specifically focus on making Switch games. Square Enix has every reason to go to Nintendo and get a character of their's in Nintendo; it's win-win, they get exposure for one of their series, and Nintendo gets massive press for Smash Bros.

So then the question becomes: which one?

Spoiler: Erdrick/Dragon Quest Character

This is what inspired me to write this post, given that people have argued for Sora, Geno, and other roster picks citing all of these articles but never Erdrick or another Dragon Quest character. You can thank me later Calane

Anyways, let's begin with a history lesson. Dragon Quest is the grandfather of the entire RPG genre, with the first game in the series releasing on the NES an entire year and a half before the first Final Fantasy game. It is Square Enix's 2nd best selling series, sitting at 75 million units sold as of a year ago between its main titles and spin-offs, and has a long history with Nintendo, with every main entry in the series being playable on Nintendo consoles (only 2 of 11 main series games weren't on Nintendo consoles initially, being 7 and 8, though they later received 3DS remakes). Nintendo even published Dragon Quest I, VI, VII, VIII, and IX within Western countries. IX is notable as it was a third-party DS game published by Nintendo, something only done for Dragon Quest and Level-5 games in the DS era. Mario and co. have also crossed over with the Dragon Quest bunch multiple times in the Fortune Street series, creating a precedent for a crossover between Nintendo and Dragon Quest. More recently, Dragon Quest XI was one of the first games revealed for the Nintendo Switch, then called the Nintendo NX, and more recently has been announced to be an upgraded version named Dragon Quest XI S (appearing at this year's Jump Festa), which will include voice acting among other new features. Needless to say, the ties between Nintendo and Dragon Quest are VERY strong.

Additionally Dragon Quest's is a cultural phenomenon in Japan. This game series is so large that it's spawned an urban myth on the level of "the average human eats 8 spiders in their sleep per year" about there being a law that Dragon Quest games had to be released on weekends, or that when Dragon Quest games released it was akin to a national holiday. While there is a Dragon Quest Day, it's an unofficial holiday, and in reality, 300 kids were arrested for truancy when Dragon Quest III released and muggings of Dragon Quest games became so widespread that there were hearings about in the Japanese parliament, leading the developers to feel bad about creating a nationwide issue and moving the game's release dates to the weekend. The series is large enough to be a common conversation topic in Japan, and is considered by many within the Japanese gaming industry to be Japan's national game. I **** you not, this series is so big that it caused the entire staff of the HiatusxHiatus HunterxHunter anime to go on hiatus JUST TO PLAY DRAGON QUEST, the series has a world record in the Guinness Book of World Records for being the first game to inspire a ballet, and has an amusement park attraction at Universal Studios Japan (where Nintendo will be soon), that's is how big this series is.

Due to Dragon Quest's Japanese popularity, Sakurai talks about it quite a bit. In the Sakurai x Normura Interview Sakurai mentions game designer Yosuke Saito (who worked on Dragon Quest X) on "a list of game designers born in 1970, [where] there's quite a few big names" alongside Hideki Kamiya, Yoko Taro, and John Carmack, and participated in a roundtable discussion with series creator Yuji Horii and Junichi Masuda of Pokémon fame where they discussed Dragon Quest XI. He's notably advocated for the series twice, first in 2011 when he stood up for Dragon Quest X and expressed that he looks forward to it, and plays Devil's Advocate for the series' difficulty, also directly acknowledging the series' popularity in the process, and went far as finding a workaround to play Dragon Quest Heroes among other games while recovering from his arm injury.. Sakurai also notably lists Dragon Quest III alongside Megaman, Final Fantasy, and Ocarina of Time among others when talking about anniversaries, and COMPARES KIRBY (you know, that one character that HE CREATED AND TREATS LIKE HIS CHILD) TO THE MAIN CHARACTER OF A DRAGON QUEST GAME. Needless to say, Dragon Quest is on Sakurai's radar.

Now, to address the common counterarguments:
The first is the series' western popularity. While the series is certainly historic, and is amazingly popular in Japan, it largely lacks a presence in the West, with 3 million+ out of 4 million copies (more than 75%) of Dragon Quest XI being sold in Japan instead of the West. It's no small secret that Square Enix has been fighting a decades long battle (sometimes alongside Nintendo) to make Dragon Quest popular in the West, and it seems like they're stacking the deck to make Dragon Quest XI the game that breaks through. I believe that Square Enix would be willing to make a gamble on the inclusion of a Dragon Quest character in Smash Bros. in an attempt to boost the series' western popularity. We've seen a good amount people interested in playing Persona with the inclusion of Joker, and "the Smash effect" could similarly boost Dragon Quest's western sales in the future.

Second, the licensing. Many people cite Dragon Quest as a "licensing nightmare" in an attempt to discredit the series' inclusion, but it's not as complicated as you'd think. Dragon Quest as a whole is between four parties: Square Enix (Development, IP ownership), Armor Project (game design), Bird Studio (character design), and Koichi Sugiyama (music). Of those four, two are no problem to deal with, being Square Enix and Armor Project, run by series' director Yuji Horii, both of whom have benefitted from positive relations with Nintendo and would no doubt like to have a Dragon Quest character in Smash to boost the series' Western popularity. That leaves Bird Studio, run by Akira Toriyama, and Koichi Sugiyama as the wildcards in rights negotiation for Dragon Quest content. However, I'm willing to believe that both will cooperate. For one, Akira Toriyama worked closely alongside Arc System Works and Namco Bandai to design Android 21, an original character, for Dragon Ball Fighterz. Namco's involvement in this scenario is notable, as they're also developer Smash Bros. Ultimate, and using their connections developing the Dragon Ball games, could bring Toriyama to the negotiating table if he isn't already there. Additionally, in developing at least Fighterz, the developers worked alongside Toei Animation and Shueisha instead of Toriyama, who made slight changes to the game to fit with the Dragon Ball IP, which could be taken as Toriyama taking a back seat when it comes to adaptations of his work. Given how many Dragon Ball games have been made, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case Goku, his star character, has been licensed out on a couple of occasions to Fuji TV and is the ambassador of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic games, which leaves me with little doubt he'd be willing to work with Nintendo on a Dragon Quest character for Smash Bros (one of the largest crossovers ever) and grant Sakurai the proper artistic license to make a Dragon Quest character a reasonable inclusion. As for Sugiyama? The use of midi music files has been suggested multiple times and could be a viable way to get Dragon Quest into Smash Bros. if needed. If Nintendo and Sakurai decide to go the orchestral route they might run into trouble due to either money or Sugiyama's seeming unwillingness to let us worldwide players have orchestral music (this is overblown, however, as Dragon Quest XI had a midi soundtrack worldwide instead of just in the West), which is the only problem I could viably see happening. However, Nintendo has dealt with this before and will do it again if negotiations go right, at worst we just end up with midis instead of orchestral music and remixes. As for the controversy surrounding Sugiyama, that's a nonissue, given that Square Enix has made a statement about it saying that it doesn't speak to company policy and are moving ahead with Dragon Quest anyways.

If Square Enix has the chance to push Dragon Quest, I could easily see them doing so. I see a Dragon Quest character as one of, if not the likeliest Square Enix character given that everything seems to line up for it. Dragon Quest is the most historic choice, and while not iconic worldwide, has the proper circumstances surrounding it to make up for that fact and justify it's inclusion in Smash.

Spoiler: Sora

Surprise surprise, one of the top Sora supporters here is going to post a lengthy argument for him. While many have counted him out time and time again, there is a solid case to be made for Sora. As mentioned before, I'm not going to address insider information as I believe it should be thrown out the window (I'll elaborate on this in another mini-essay).

Kingdom Hearts is one of Square Enix's more notable series, selling 24 million units worldwide as of November 2017 making it Square Enix's fourth best selling series. While this may initially seem unimpressive, this is across only 15 titles (2 of which were remakes and 5 of which were collections of previous games). Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and Tomb Raider, Square Enix's top 3 best selling series, clock in at 54 titles, 29 titles, and 30 titles respectively. For Kingdom Hearts to accomplish that much in such a little amount is impressive. The series is a collaboration between Disney and Square Enix and uses both the Disney and Final Fantasy IPs alongside original characters, such as Sora. By sole merit of possessing Disney content a majority of people will know at least something about Kingdom Hearts. The series is also known for Kingdom Hearts 3, which at one point stood alongside games such as Duke Nukem Forever and Half-Life 3 as a game in a popular series trapped in development hell and became a meme within the gaming community because of this; Kingdom Hearts 3 has been teased since 2005, and ever since it's official announcement it's consistently placed within Japanese Gaming Magazine Famitsu's Weekly Most Wanted Games poll, showing Japanese popularity. On the Western front, Kingdom Hearts 3 won 16 awards out 29 nominations at E3 2018, which I believe is a good sign of Western popularity.

Stemming from Kingdom Heart's popularity, demand for Sora in Smash Bros. exists, and it's a lot larger than some would expect. Going back to the Smash Ballot era, the entire Kingdom Hearts community rallied behind Sora, with prominent Kingdom Hearts youtubers HMK and TheGamersJoint (at 36,000 and 59,000 subscribers respectively at the time) both making videos telling their fans to vote for Sora in the ballot. More recently, fans have been more vocal about their wants, with the king of Sm4sh, Zero, voicing his support for Sora and HMK telling a Disney executive to his face that the fans want Sora in Smash alongside reasons for his inclusion. Sora ranked number 1 on an Italian Smash Bros. Fighter Poll, number 5 for large Japanese magazine Inside's most anticipated Smash Bros. character, and number 5 on the Reddit Smash Ultimate Poll with 12,485 votes. Further evidence for an impressive ballot performance for Sora comes from the fact that in the Reddit Ultimate Poll: "The character with the most brigaders (was) Sora (more than half his voters came from non-reddit referrers). This shows that Kingdom Hearts fans care enough about Sora in Smash to vote on a large, unofficial Reddit poll, which would certainly translate to an official Nintendo ballot. Support for Sora even exists within Square Enix, as evidenced by this deleted tweet from series producer and Square Enix executive Shinji Hashimoto. Needless to say, there's a lot of people who want to see Sora in Smash Bros.

As a character, Sora is in an interesting place. While Sora is owned by Disney for all legal purposes, Disney and Square Enix have a gentlemen's agreement between them where Disney has to approach series director Tetsuya Normura and Square Enix to use him in any sort of marketing (source). This gentlemen's agreement is highly important, as evidenced by the canceled 2002 Kingdom Hearts cartoon series—which was canceled "so as to not jeopardize the relationship between Square Enix & Disney as they began to expand the franchise"—and more recently, the canceled Disney Kingdom Hearts game which is speculated to have been canceled due to Square Enix's disapproval. According to Disney of Japan executive Justin Scarpone, the process for negotiating Sora in Smash would go as such:

• Nintendo approaches Disney for negotiations
• Assuming fan demand exists, approval from Normura and Square Enix would be required
• Disney would then work alongside Nintendo to represent Sora accurately.

Let's go through this process bit by bit and look at some of the moving parts here.

To begin, Nintendo needs to convince Disney. This is where the most error can occur, and where the most variability in speculation exists. On one hand, you have users who have worked with Disney or know people who have worked with Disney such as @NonSpecificGuy and @PlayerOneTyler who express how difficult it is to work with Disney legal for even minor things, but you also have the claim from Scarpone that Disney "isn't restrictive, but particular," examples of Disney cross-promotion in video games, such as:

• Thanos in Fortnite in a time-exclusive game mode (one which seems to be making a return soon)
• Most recently, Wreck-It-Ralph in Fortnite
• Wreck-It-Ralph in Sonic and Sega All-Stars racing

and factors hinting that Disney may not be as soulless as some imagine them to be, such as Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3's exclusivity to Nintendo Switch (when it could make more money being multiplatform) and Normura being the one who decided to not make a Disney fighting game and not Disney. Additionally, Nintendo and Disney seem to be on good terms given the aforementioned exclusivity of Ultimate Alliance 3, the game show that the two made together about the Nintendo Switch, and the fact that Disney XD has streamed events such as the Sm4sh Wii U finals at EVO 2017 and if I recall correctly, the Invitational tournaments. Disney and Nintendo go way back past this, as far as the pre-NES era, and interestingly enough, Nintendo has also published games with Disney characters such as Epic Mickey (in Japan) and Disney's Magical Mirror Starring Mickey Mouse, which makes Disney similar to Dragon Quest in that regard. Overall, negotiations with Disney is a coinflip, but I believe that it's possible, especially if Nintendo and Disney work out a deal outside of Smash (similar to how Ralph ended up in Sega All-Stars racing due to Sonic being in Wreck-It-Ralph).

We've established that fan demand for Sora exists. Getting Normura's approval would be easy given Sakurai's positive relationship with Normura (he even praised Normura and his team for Kingdom Heart's 15th anniversary and expressed that he was a fan of the series), and extending to Square Enix Hashimoto's support of Sora bodes well for Nintendo getting general approval for Sora. While Square Enix has proven themselves difficult to work with, I believe with pressure from inside the company it's likely they'll get approval.

Now, all Sakurai and his team need to do is work alongside Disney to faithfully represent Sora. The question here is whether Disney will give Sakurai the artistic liberty required for him to work, and I'd say that it's 75:25. I could see it going down like how Toei and Shueishi worked alongside Arc System Works for Fighterz where they only made incredibly minor changes, and I trust that if anyone can represent Sora accurately, it's Sakurai; guy's the king of accurate character representation.

Overall, I would give Sora 50/50 chances depending on whether or not Disney can play nice with Nintendo. I would say he's more likely than people think, but I acknowledge that negotiations with him could be difficult enough to consider pursuing another option. However, Sora checks off both boxes (Kingdom Hearts is both an iconic and historic crossover) and his popularity would generate a large amount of sales and press for Smash Bros.

Spoiler: Geno

What's this? tehponycorn arguing for Geno instead of against him? Surely that's impossible! Well, it is, my reputation as a supposed "Geno basher" be damned. This one goes out to my girl Luigi The President - never stop dreaming

Let's start with the most prominent point in Geno's favor: the Sakurai Interview. We all know the one.

Even the interviewer acknowledges Geno's popularity, saying

So, we have a direct statement from Sakurai saying that he wanted Geno in the game for Brawl and Sm4sh, and acknowledgement of his popularity. This is hands down the best point in his favor. Geno, similar to the other two members of the Holy Trinity composed of himself, Ridley, and King K. Rool—the latter two of which were newcomers for Ultimate—has managed to remain a popular speculation pick within the Smash Bros. community since Brawl, and consistently ranks high within fan polls across the core fanbase (the fan polls linked came from Twitter, Reddit, 4chan's /v/, and SourceGaming among other sources). His Mii Costume also got it's own splash screen, making it notable as no other Mii Costumes got that level of preferential treatment, and Spirits of him and Mallow are the only Square Enix spirits to appear besides Cloud, meaning that someone is pushing for his inclusion, or at least acknowledgement, in Smash Bros.

The game he's from, Super Mario RPG for the SNES, isn't a slouch in terms of notoriety. For one, it's revered to this day as a classic SNES RPG alongside Crono Trigger and Final Fantasy 6, and sold 2.14 million copies in it's original run, with rereleases on the Wii and Wii U virtual console and most recently a rerelease on the SNES classic, which has sold over 5 million units (as of March 2018).

Another argument in favor of Geno is how simple it would be to acquire the rights to him. Compared to the messes that are Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, and even Final Fantasy with it's music, all Nintendo would need to do is get the rights for Geno and Super Mario RPG content. The main composer for the game, Yoko Shimomura, is already onboard for Smash Ultimate, facilitating negotiations for music and introducing the possibilities of remixes and making for an easy process to acquire Geno and include him in Smash Bros. Geno would also represent the culmination Nintendo and Square Enix's first golden age, which is incredibly fitting seeing as they're currently entering their second one.

All that being said, there are valid counterarguments for each of the above points.

Geno's popularity cannot be denied due to Sakurai and the Nintendo Dream Interviewer's direct acknowledgement of it. If Sakurai has wanted Geno in since Brawl, however, then why hasn't he been added? Pac-Man, Villager, and Miis, all previously considered characters for Brawl similar to Geno, made the jump to playable status in Smash 4, and even Ridley, a character that Sakurai famously denied, made the jump in Smash Ultimate. So then why hasn't Geno, a character that's been seriously considered for the last two entries, made a similar jump? The most common theory currently is that Square Enix refuses to give Sakurai and co. the license to use Geno as a playable character; why add Geno when another, more relevant character could be added to promote a current series for Square Enix? Remember, Square Enix is all about cross-promotion in their crossover deals, and Geno hasn't had a game release in 20 years.

However, Square Enix did give Sakurai and co. the rights to make a mii costume and include Spirits of the characters in Smash Ultimate, so they're not completely opposed to the prospect of Geno in Smash. I imagine that negotiating for a mii costume and literal .png files is much easier than negotiating for a playable character though. The argument of "would Square Enix grant Nintendo the rights to Geno" is one that is difficult to answer because both sides are valid. It would be incredibly easy to get Geno in Smash Bros. compared to other Square Enix characters, making his inclusion the one with the least risk.

While Geno always performs well in fan polls, fan polls, by nature, are susceptible to Voluntary Response Bias, which skews statistical data when the sample size is composed of self-selected volunteers. People who participate in polls conducted by the core fanbase are more likely to vote for characters widely supported by the core fanbase, i.e. Geno. This is further evidenced by the Ultimate Reddit poll, wherein Sora and Phoenix Wright, two nonstandard picks for the core fanbase, performed very well due to the high number of brigaders for those characters. Within that same fan poll, it was stated that most of Geno's support came from the United States, showing that he isn't nearly as popular abroad as he is here. While fan polls are a great general indicator of the fanbase's wishes, they can't be relied on for hard evidence due to the bias present in them by nature. I would say that given the larger size of the Ultimate Reddit poll, it can be trusted relatively well, but it still doesn't account for the large, silent, casual fanbase, who are equally as valid as the core fanbase. While the core fanbase would be ecstatic about Geno, the casual fanbase would likely not know who he is given the low sales of his game compared to Square Enix's other series (while he did appear on the SNES Classic, it's worth noting that many purchases of the SNES Classic was marketed towards those looking to re-experience the classic SNES games of their youth, and therefore many purchases of the SNES Classic were from people who likely already knew about Geno or bought the console for another game unrelated to him). From this, while Geno's inclusion has the least risk, it also likely has the least reward.

Finally, as a miscellaneous point, multiple other Mii characters got splash screens, such as Abraham Lincoln, Elijah Wood, and Ice T alongside members of the J-Pop idol group AKB48. I also swear that Nikki from Swapnote got her own little trailer as a Mii Fighter, but was unable to find any proof of such. This may be tangental to the prominence of the splash screen for Geno's costume seeing that it's a character costume and not just a mii alongside the fact that Geno is a third party character, but I still believe it's a point worth mentioning that Geno could've just been a marketable face similar to the former characters.

Overall, I give Geno a 50/50 chance depending on whether or not Square Enix and Nintendo want to go the easy route. I personally doubt that they would, but I understand that there's a case to be made for them doing so. Despite my own biases, I acknowledge that both sides have equal weight, and Geno is truly a tossup at this point; he's historic, but it's kind of reach, and he's not iconic, but could maybe have the extenuating circumstances required to make up for that. It's truly difficult to tell.

Spoiler: Final Fantasy Character

I'm condensing every possible Final Fantasy fighter into one for the sake of my own sanity, as there are so many possible fighters here. So, I'm going to be arguing for the series' merits and then listing some characters I believe could be our second Final Fantasy rep if we get one.

Final Fantasy is Square Enix's flagship franchise, selling over 144 million units as of March 2018. That's a little under double that of Dragon Quest, Square Enix's next best selling series. This also shows in the promotion that the series receives, such as the aforementioned Noctis in Tekken, Assassin's Creed in Final Fantasy XV, and Behemoth in Tekken (see Background - Why a Square Enix Character?) alongside, you know, . Sakurai even acknowledged this within the Nintendo Dream Interview by calling it

So, it would be a safe pick for Square Enix to go for another Square Enix series, given the long history the series has with Nintendo and the many iconic characters within the series. However, with that many characters, who would they choose next? I have four ideas:

Bartz Klauser
Protagonist of Final Fantasy V for the SNES, mentioned within the same interview as Cloud by Sakurai, who remarked that a moveset about switching jobs could be "interesting." Sakurai has previously dropped things within interviews that were prominent, such as how Castlevania impacted him similar to the Legend of Zelda and how excited he was to play Castlevania: Aria of Sorrow prior to Simon's reveal.

Onion Knight
Mentioned within the same interview as Bartz, but isn't as likely given that it was Japan-exclusive until 2006.

Terra Branford
A little bit of personal speculation on my part, but given how Final Fantasy 6 is often held as one of the best JRPGs of all time and is prominently on Nintendo console, it would make sense for her to be our second Final Fantasy pick.

Sephiroth
Final Fantasy 7 is already on the table given Cloud's inclusion, so it'd be relatively easy to secure the character rights for him. Sephiroth is one of the most iconic villains in all of gaming history, and anyone who knows about Cloud will know about his age old rival Sephiroth.

Despite it being Square Enix's flagship franchise and having a bevy of characters to choose from, there are barriers to inclusion for a Final Fantasy character. For one, the way that licensing for Final Fantasy is handled scatters the rights to music and different components among the creators of those works. This leads to what could be costly licensing fees for Nintendo, to the point where it's simply not worth to negotiate for music. Additionally, no precedent for a series having two unique characters exists. While this is nothing but a fan rule that could easily be shattered, it's still worth noting, especially when both Bayonetta and Joker—both owned by Sega—got in over another Sonic character.

While I certainly wouldn't discount the inclusion of another Final Fantasy character, I also wouldn't see it as the most likely scenario.

Spoiler: Lara Croft

Tomb Raider is Square Enix's third best selling series, selling 60 million units as of March 2018 and defining the action adventure genre later refined by series such as Uncharted. Tomb Raider is also notable due to its status as a cultural phenomenon, as its spawned three movies, multiple soundtracks, a TV series, and multiple comic series and novelizations over the years. The only other Square Enix series to come close to this is Dragon Quest, and even then it lacks the worldwide appeal that Tomb Raider does. Lara Croft is an iconic character, and you'd be hard pressed to find a top 10 women in video games list without her, with her even winning the world record for "most successful female video game character" within the 2010 Guinness Book of World Records. This was before the series' remake, mind you, meaning that she and her series have only become more successful since then.

There are a couple of barriers for Laura's inclusion, however. For one, she's more associated with Playstation and Xbox than Nintendo. While we do have characters more known for appearances on Playstation systems, being Snake, Cloud, and Joker, each of them have some sort of circumstance behind that, with Snake largely being a favor for a friend, and Cloud and Joker representing Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei, two series with historic ties to Nintendo. Lara Croft lacks either of these circumstances, which is significant. Furthermore, she uses realistic weaponry, such as her signature dual pistols, for most of her attacks, and it is unknown whether this could translate into to Smash similar to Snake or Bayonetta, both of whom were toned down in that regard. Finally, she's a British developed character, which subjects her to the stigma against Western character which seems to be present within the series, with Diddy Kong, King K. Rool, and Dark Samus being the only character created outside of Japan.


While Lara Croft as the Square Enix character is worth being discussed, I would say that she's the dark horse pick of the bunch and is overall unlikely. Keep her in mind though.

Spoiler: Gex

YOU THOUGHT I WAS SERIOUSLY GOING TO ARGUE FOR GEX?!

Joking aside, Gex has appeared on Nintendo consoles before, and his three games have sold a total of 15 million units worldwide, which is nothing to laugh at. I'd say it's more possible than you'd think, but still very unlikely.

Spoiler: Misc.

I acknowledge that the Square Enix character could be someone not previously argued for. So, I'm going to be doing small arguments for other character I believe could be the Square Enix rep, but wouldn't necessarily hold out hopes for.
Crono
Crono almost got his own section, but in the end I couldn't justify that as much as I could justify using him to start this section. Similar to Terra and Final Fantasy 6, Chrono Trigger appears on many, if not every list of the greatest JRPGs of all time. However, he's in a similar place as Geno wherein he hasn't had a recent game in his series for around 20 years, but doesn't have the vocal fanbase to keep him going.

Neku Sakuraba
The World Ends With You is a critically acclaimed cult classic (that's a tongue-twister) that's appeared on the Nintendo DS and iOS/Android alongside the Nintendo Switch. That said, it's only a cult classic and has failed to establish itself as a series. I would say he has good chances as a predominantly Nintendo character, but compared to other, larger Square Enix picks he fails to compare.

Agnès Oblige
Another Square Enix character predominantly on Nintendo systems, Bravely Default 1 & 2 were critically acclaimed JRPGs on the 3DS. However, with a third entry in the series for Nintendo Switch unconfirmed, she lacks the relevance required to make her a notable pick for DLC.

2B
While 2B is a popular Square Enix character and has even made an appearance in Soul Calibur 6 as a playable character, she's never appeared on a Nintendo console and is therefore ineligible for Smash Bros. Sorry @NineS.

Spoiler: Wrap-Up: My Thoughts

If I had to bet on which Square Enix character I think will get in, I'd put all my money on Dragon Quest. Every factor seems to line up in the series' favor, and the most notable counterarguments are made up for and can't really be used against it. If I had to make a chart for it, it would go like this:

Dragon Quest >> Final Fantasy Character > Lara Croft > Geno = Sora = Crono > Neku > Anyone else

While speculation about the Square Enix representative was initially exciting, I've quickly found it to become tiring and monotonous, as speculation continues to circle around the same rehashed topics and every time we get a new piece of information we end up right where we started in terms of what we know. Hopefully this piece clears up some misconceptions and offers some closure to the circuitous arguments that the fanbase has found itself mired in. At this point I would suggest that everyone just sit back and relax, for it seems like similar to Mr. Bone, Mr. Square Enix's wild ride won't be ending anytime soon.

Thank you for putting sources.

 

[MasterWarlord]

I find it completely and utterly baffling that people would suggest Chrono Trigger over Dragon Quest with a straight face. Dragon Quest is more popular in the west as a multimillion dollar gigantic franchise spanning decades, god forbid how it does in Japan. People are treating Joker as if he's some very obscure character, when Persona 5 was one of the biggest and most AAA games of last year and represents a massive franchise. Just because he wasn't predicted in Speculation doesn't mean we can start getting all of these Z list characters, just because the Western Smash Bros speculation isn't that aware of Dragon Quest.

If you are so obsessed with a "shocking" pick, Slime is far more shocking than Geno or Crono due to the nature of the character as a generic enemy. If they want safer and easier to make, they can pick Illuminary/Erdrick. The only real competition is Sora in terms of legacy, and Vergeben has apparently said that Sora will not happen as the Square character due to being "a Disney character."

While it's odd that Nintendo would not pick any Nintendo characters for DLC, they have already eliminated some of their biggest advertisements with Spring Man and Rex and Pyra. I'm in the camp spirits deconfirm, especially with how Reggie is hinting that the rest of the DLC may well be 3rd party only. It's not confirmed, but that seems to be the general implication.

 

[SSGuy]

The very reason people discredit Geno is the very reason he just might get in. So many of you believe him to be a ''never ever" situation it seems.

But he's the only never ever situation to get so close to Smash and not actually happen.

Honestly considering this and everything.

The most shocking Square situation would be Geno, Crono or Sora with Donald and Goofy in toe.

Dragon Quest isn't shocking. Another FF character isn't shocking.

I think people expecting Dragon Quest so surely are going to be disappointed and that's just the feeling I have.

In order I'd put them this way of likelyness:

Geno and Crono at the same likelyhood, Sora in third place.

I have a good feeling the Octopath team is working on a remake of either Chrono Trigger or Super Mario RPG for the Switch and one of the two is going to be revealed as Smash DLC side by side with this reveal.

That would be a dream come true. My feeling for Geno ebb and flows constantly. Some days I think he is shoe in and others I just want to give up but I am just proud over the fact that we have stayed in it for so many years.

Even if Geno never happens, I still would like my Mii Costume back.