What's this? tehponycorn arguing for Geno instead of against him? Surely that's impossible! Well, it is, my reputation as a supposed "Geno basher" be damned.
This one goes out to my girl @Luigi The President - never stop dreaming
Let's start with the most prominent point in Geno's favor:
the Sakurai Interview. We all know the one.
Even the interviewer acknowledges Geno's popularity, saying
So, we have a direct statement from Sakurai saying that he wanted Geno in the game for Brawl and Sm4sh, and acknowledgement of his popularity. This is hands down the best point in his favor. Geno,
similar to the other two members of the Holy Trinity composed of himself, Ridley, and King K. Rool—the latter two of which were newcomers for Ultimate—has managed to remain a popular speculation pick within the Smash Bros. community since Brawl, and
consistently ranks high within fan polls across the core fanbase (the fan polls linked came from Twitter, Reddit, 4chan's /v/, and SourceGaming among other sources).
His Mii Costume also got it's own splash screen, making it notable as no other Mii Costumes got that level of preferential treatment, and Spirits of him and Mallow are the only Square Enix spirits to appear besides Cloud, meaning that someone is pushing for his inclusion, or at least acknowledgement, in Smash Bros.
The game he's from, Super Mario RPG for the SNES, isn't a slouch in terms of notoriety. For one, it's revered to this day as a classic SNES RPG alongside Crono Trigger and Final Fantasy 6, and
sold 2.14 million copies in it's original run, with rereleases on the Wii and Wii U virtual console and most recently a rerelease on the SNES classic,
which has sold over 5 million units (as of March 2018).
Another argument in favor of Geno is how simple it would be to acquire the rights to him. Compared to the messes that are Kingdom Hearts, Dragon Quest, and even Final Fantasy with it's music, all Nintendo would need to do is get the rights for Geno and Super Mario RPG content. The main composer for the game, Yoko Shimomura, is already onboard for Smash Ultimate, facilitating negotiations for music and introducing the possibilities of remixes and making for an easy process to acquire Geno and include him in Smash Bros. Geno would also represent the culmination Nintendo and Square Enix's first golden age, which is incredibly fitting seeing as they're currently entering their second one.
All that being said, there are valid counterarguments for each of the above points.
Geno's popularity cannot be denied due to Sakurai and the Nintendo Dream Interviewer's direct acknowledgement of it. If Sakurai has wanted Geno in since Brawl, however, then why hasn't he been added? Pac-Man, Villager, and Miis,
all previously considered characters for Brawl similar to Geno, made the jump to playable status in Smash 4, and even Ridley,
a character that Sakurai famously denied, made the jump in Smash Ultimate. So then why hasn't Geno, a character that's been seriously considered for the last two entries, made a similar jump? The most common theory currently is that Square Enix refuses to give Sakurai and co. the license to use Geno as a playable character; why add Geno when another, more relevant character could be added to promote a current series for Square Enix? Remember, Square Enix is all about cross-promotion in their crossover deals, and Geno hasn't had a game release in
20 years.
However, Square Enix did give Sakurai and co. the rights to make a mii costume and include Spirits of the characters in Smash Ultimate, so they're not
completely opposed to the prospect of Geno in Smash. I imagine that negotiating for a mii costume and literal .png files is much easier than negotiating for a playable character though. The argument of "would Square Enix grant Nintendo the rights to Geno" is one that is difficult to answer because both sides are valid. It would be incredibly easy to get Geno in Smash Bros. compared to other Square Enix characters, making his inclusion the one with the least risk.
While Geno always performs well in fan polls, fan polls, by nature, are susceptible to
Voluntary Response Bias, which skews statistical data when the sample size is composed of self-selected volunteers. People who participate in polls conducted by the core fanbase are more likely to vote for characters widely supported by the core fanbase, i.e. Geno. This is further evidenced by the
Ultimate Reddit poll, wherein Sora and Phoenix Wright, two nonstandard picks for the core fanbase, performed very well due to the high number of brigaders for those characters. Within that same fan poll, it was stated that most of Geno's support came from the United States, showing that he isn't nearly as popular abroad as he is here. While fan polls are a great general indicator of the fanbase's wishes, they can't be relied on for hard evidence due to the bias present in them by nature. I would say that given the larger size of the Ultimate Reddit poll, it can be trusted relatively well, but it still doesn't account for the large, silent, casual fanbase, who are equally as valid as the core fanbase. While the core fanbase would be ecstatic about Geno, the casual fanbase would likely not know who he is given the low sales of his game compared to Square Enix's other series (while he did appear on the SNES Classic, it's worth noting that many purchases of the SNES Classic was marketed towards those looking to re-experience the classic SNES games of their youth, and therefore many purchases of the SNES Classic were from people who likely already knew about Geno or bought the console for another game unrelated to him). From this, while Geno's inclusion has the least risk, it also likely has the least reward.
Finally, as a miscellaneous point, multiple other Mii characters got splash screens, such as
Abraham Lincoln, Elijah Wood, and Ice T alongside members of the
J-Pop idol group AKB48. I also swear that Nikki from Swapnote got her own little trailer as a Mii Fighter, but was unable to find any proof of such. This may be tangental to the prominence of the splash screen for Geno's costume seeing that it's a character costume and not just a mii alongside the fact that Geno is a third party character, but I still believe it's a point worth mentioning that Geno could've just been a marketable face similar to the former characters.
Overall, I give Geno a 50/50 chance depending on whether or not Square Enix and Nintendo want to go the easy route. I personally doubt that they would, but I understand that there's a case to be made for them doing so. Despite my own biases, I acknowledge that both sides have equal weight, and Geno is truly a tossup at this point; he's historic,
but it's kind of reach, and he's not iconic,
but could maybe have the extenuating circumstances required to make up for that. It's truly difficult to tell.