Guybrush20X6
Creator of Lego Theory
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I'd add Bowser Jr. but really, he was only unexpected because of Rosalina. We forgot, as we always do, that multiple characters from the same series can get in at once.In regards to surprising newcomers and the patterns they appear in, this is what I've noticed.
Historical Newcomer (Argued by some to be based on peripherals) :
Retro (Famicom) Character:
Then I'd argue others are intended to be surprises, but not to fulfill a specific criteria.
Unexpected Newcomer:
One could argue that two unexpected newcomers make it every game in the base roster (I separated Corrin because DLC). I have Marth and Rosalina as surprises because one was Japan-exclusive and the other was practically not considered.
I did not include the third parties because, while surprising, they are not added exclusively for shock factor. (See: Snake, Cloud, Bayonetta)