Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Cutie Gwen]

Or, as I keep saying, the roster is subject to changes. Once Arms did moderately well, or just once Nintendo realized they wanted to actually promote their new IP (which was obviously before Arms release) they could have easily convinced Sakurai of the worth. Same as Corrin. I understand she was already out at the time in Japan, but there is still an aspect of that which creates the precedent relevant to Arms.

I didn't include Corrin as like you said, game ws already out for Japan a while

 

[Deleted member]

Greninja and Roy come to mind, Greninja was only concept art when Sakurai chose him and Roy's game came out AFTER melee

Greninja comes out of an existing franchises with an already prominent presence in Smash (four games) and Roy only got in as a last-minute clone in a franchise that had existed for eleven years.

We're talking about introducing a whole new franchise that didn't even exist when the roster got decided with an unique character and contents to boot. It would be unprecedented.

 

[Troykv]

For the first time in history, there is a tie instead of one winner. It's a tie between Mia and Elincia as the most wanted Path of Radiance characters. Mist was the least wanted and King Ashnard was in between.

Next is the second d Ike's games, starting with a fan favorite mage. Your choices are Micaiah, Oliver, Sephiran, and and Mordecai.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Begin.

Its finally Micaiah's turn!

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Greninja comes out of an existing franchises with an already prominent presence in Smash (four games) and Roy only got in as a last-minute clone in a franchise that had existed for eleven years.

We're talking about introducing a whole new franchise that didn't even exist when the roster got decided with an unique character and contents to boot. It would be unprecedented.

Well they could have chosen to NOT have Roy but a different clone. Either way Nintendo would say "Hey, we plan on making this new IP and promote it like Splatoon, we expect it to go similarly" and Sakurai would be all "Aight say no more Shiggy" and do his magic

 

[Morbi]

Greninja comes out of an existing franchises with an already prominent presence in Smash (four games) and Roy only got in as a last-minute clone in a franchise that had existed for eleven years.

We're talking about introducing a whole new franchise that didn't even exist when the roster got decided with an unique character and contents to boot. It would be unprecedented.

The argument is: what else are they even attempting to offer? It would probably be too much if it was last time, because there were still characters to choose from. So much so, apparently, that Wolf had to be cut. This time, however, the only "missing" characters besides main franchise content is Ridley or King K. Rool, both of which I doubt under the premise that they did not happen last time. Ridley, was more technical. King K. Rool, or any other Kong, really, I have no idea. My theory is that Nintendo has a problem with Rare, but that is just blasphemous to suggest.

You just have to look at the intended purpose of Smash in a modern context. It is a cross-promotional machine. Why would they neglect Arms, when they have virtually nothing better to offer? And I believe they understand that, we got Inklings before any other Nintendo character this time around. To me, that shows that they understand the importance of new IP. It was almost an admittance that they were left out last time, in a way. In order to make money, you have to spend money. Really obvious stuff to a business, even one as inept as Nintendo. Furthermore, this is marketing toward Switch fans and Arms is literally one of like 4 Switch exclusive games. One of which was a "party" "game" and the other was the pseudo-port. I somehow forgot Odyssey, but that was there. Arms was at the forefront of early (post BotW) Switch marketing. If they had no faith in it, they would have "waited to see if it proves itself" back then, which they tried and failed with Wonder 101. I believe they learned their lesson.

If Arms was too late, so was Xenoblade 2, and I am sure most people doubt that notion. I understand that Xenoblade vaguely "proved" itself, but X2 had not. I would even go as far as to say that if Arms completely bombed, we might still see the character because they might want to try and salvage the IP. It did well enough, though. Arguably the best for inclusion in Smash. Splatoon did so well, that they put it off. Doing just "okay" is the BEST reason to include them and up the name recognition.

 

[Arcanir]

Or, as I keep saying, the roster is subject to changes. Once Arms did moderately well, or just once Nintendo realized they wanted to actually promote their new IP (which was obviously before Arms release) they could have easily convinced Sakurai of the worth. Same as Corrin. I understand she was already out at the time in Japan, but there is still an aspect of that which creates the precedent relevant to Arms.

That's not how Sakurai has historically done it though. In the project proposal that was given out for Smash 4, he clearly says that he drafts up the roster at the beginning and he doesn't change it once the project is in motion:

All fighters on the roster are decided from the beginning, along with themes to help bring out their unique attributes.

Before deciding on the roster, I do preliminary research on demand and popularity, but I don't make any changes once the project is in motion.

The only exceptions seem to be A) Cuts as he mentions on the 24th slide, B) Clones, which we know are only done at the end if time allows, and C) If a slot is set aside for a franchise and then a character is added later (such as with Greninja). That's why we tend to lack characters past a certain point within production, the characters are decided and Sakurai doesn't add anything as a result of the changing climate during production.

So for ARMs to be added, Nintendo would have to tell Sakurai about the new IP and Sakurai would add him based on the merits he had existing at the time. He wouldn't have access to things like popularity, sales data or the like since the characters were likely decided before such things were available.

 

[Originality]

So for ARMs to be added, Nintendo would have to tell Sakurai about the new IP and Sakurai would add him based on the merits he had existing at the time. He wouldn't have access to things like popularity, sales data or the like since the characters were likely decided before such things were available.

I feel like Sakurai could see potential in Springman's design alone. I'm 50/50 on him making it into the base game, but if he isn't then I'm quite certain he'll be dlc

 

[Godzillathewonderdog]

They did reveal an early protype for the game ARMS yesterday, which might give us an idea of when the game started development.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.eu...rms-prototypes-showcase-cut-bowling-mini-game

Maybe Sakurai saw the game early on and was inspired to add a character from it? Though adding a character from a franchise that has yet to come out would be a first, so I'm not sure.

 

[Morbi]

That's not how Sakurai has historically done it though. In the project proposal that was given out for Smash 4, he clearly says that he drafts up the roster at the beginning and he doesn't change it once the project is in motion:




The only exceptions seem to be A) Cuts as he mentions on the 24th slide, B) Clones, which we know are only done at the end if time allows, and C) If a slot is set aside for a franchise and then a character is added later (such as with Greninja). That's why we tend to lack characters past a certain point within production, the characters are decided and Sakurai doesn't add anything as a result of the changing climate during production.

So for ARMs to be added, Nintendo would have to tell Sakurai about the new IP and Sakurai would add him based on the merits he had existing at the time. He wouldn't have access to things like popularity, sales data or the like since the characters were likely decided before such things were available.

That is just false and we know it, or it has since been changed to how literally everyone else does it. You can take his word for it if you would like, but there were not enough characters to justify back when we were literally still getting DLC for the game. There would have been no justification for the project unless an Arms character (and a few other future ventures) WAS there in the beginning because Nintendo was taking a risk.

This one is more subjective; however, I believe the Gematsu leak was real in hindsight (I thought it was fake back when everyone thought it was real because of one simple reason, Robin). And to that end, I am positive he DID decide on Chrom. He even alludes to that. And yet, here we are. He changed his mind, fam.

 

[Senselessbreak]

My Detective Pikachu came a day early so I'm excited to play it finally! Interesting to see if he will get an alt in Smash.

 

[Originality]

My Detective Pikachu came a day early so I'm excited to play it finally! Interesting to see if he will get an alt in Smash.

I'd prefer a Pikachu Libre alt personally

 

[Phaazoid]

Greninja comes out of an existing franchises with an already prominent presence in Smash (four games) and Roy only got in as a last-minute clone in a franchise that had existed for eleven years.

We're talking about introducing a whole new franchise that didn't even exist when the roster got decided with an unique character and contents to boot. It would be unprecedented.

We're talking about an ARMS rep, right? Unprecedented feels like a strong word, it's definitely a comparable situation to Greninja and Roy, even if some of the minutia are different. Plus, Nintendo was all over trying to make ARMS really popular right from the get-go, with DLC, sponsored tournaments, etc. While I won't go as far as to say an ARMS rep is guaranteed, I do think they're in a pretty good spot.

 

[Morbi]

I'd prefer a Pikachu Libre alt personally

I'd prefer both, personally. And while they are at it, include the other cosplay Pikachu.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

That is just false and we know it, or it has since been changed to how literally everyone else does it. You can take his word for it if you would like, but there were not enough characters to justify back when we were literally still getting DLC for the game. There would have been no justification for the project unless an Arms character (and a few other future ventures) WAS there in the beginning because Nintendo was taking a risk.

This one is more subjective; however, I believe the Gematsu leak was real in hindsight (I thought it was fake back when everyone thought it was real because of one simple reason, Robin). And to that end, I am positive he DID decide on Chrom. He even alludes to that. And yet, here we are. He changed his mind, fam.

That doesn't make sense, there were enough characters to justify the game as the game existed and sold well. And the Gematsu leak stuff was most likely an outdated list as you don't make one list, you look at the possibilities, change the list and then decide "Right, THIS is our goal"

 

[Capybara Gaming]

We're talking about an ARMS rep, right? Unprecedented feels like a strong word, it's definitely a comparable situation to Greninja and Roy, even if some of the minutia is different. Plus, Nintendo was all over trying to make ARMS really popular right from the get-go, with DLC, sponsored tournaments, etc. While I won't go as far as to say an ARMS rep is guaranteed, I do think they're in a pretty good spot.

This is a great point. I've seen people cite the fact that the game didn't take off with Splatoon popularity as a reason that ARMS won't get a rep; but the roster would have been decided long ago and that's when ARMs was likely beginning the wrap-up of development and Sakurai would probably have had some insider info on it.

 

[Morbi]

That doesn't make sense, there were enough characters to justify the game as the game existed and sold well. And the Gematsu leak stuff was most likely an outdated list as you don't make one list, you look at the possibilities, change the list and then decide "Right, THIS is our goal"

I was referring to at the current time. Now that we have gotten those 15 plus characters, there is even less to choose from at the current time and that makes an Arms character quite desirable if I am being entirely honest. The most relevant Nintendo character we have, outside of the two I mentioned, is Waluigi. That is more or less the state of things.

Definitely a possibility. I did warn that it was subjective, I just feel that there is reason to suspect he might do that after the game has started development and even if not, then I believe Arms was represented on the final draft regardless.

I do have to admit, I never thought that arguing for an Arms character was going to be an underdog choice worth my speculation brownies. I thought it was more in line with a "Little Mac," something everyone figured was given.

 

[Arcanir]

I feel like Sakurai could see potential in Springman's design alone. I'm 50/50 on him making it into the base game, but if he isn't then I'm quite certain he'll be dlc

Oh definitely, and since Nintendo has pushed the IP I do feel that they still have a good chance. However, I do also feel that we can't push them as a shoo-in based on merits that likely didn't affect any character choices, development doesn't seem to be that flexible.

That is just false and we know it, or it has since been changed to how literally everyone else does it.

False based on what though? The only characters we know of that were added during development are Sonic (who was intended to be added earlier as a popular character choice, and ended up throwing off production with his late addition and thus shows why they would avoid that), Greninja (who was deliberately mentioned to take a slot set aside), and clones. The rest that we know of were not added past the initial draft, which would leave anything else as conjecture. It could be the case that characters are added, but if it is it's not reflected at all in Sakurai's own words or in what information we do have.

You can take his word for it if you would like, but there were not enough characters to justify back when we were literally still getting DLC for the game. There would have been no justification for the project unless an Arms character (and a few other future ventures) WAS there in the beginning because Nintendo was taking a risk.

There are other characters to draw from that aren't in ARMs such as Elma or a Gen 7 Pokémon. ARMs not being present wouldn't kill the roster if other popular, notable, or unique choices are added.

Also, again nothing says they weren't added during the drafting phase. We know Nintendo pushed ARMs heavily, it is possible they would try to push it using Smash as well and introduce the character and franchise to Sakurai.

This one is more subjective; however, I believe the Gematsu leak was real in hindsight (I thought it was fake back when everyone thought it was real because of one simple reason, Robin). And to that end, I am positive he DID decide on Chrom. He even alludes to that. And yet, here we are. He changed his mind, fam.

And note the date of the project proposal was April 2012, which means Robin was decided on (or at least was in consideration) pretty much as soon as the project began. Chrom probably was considered, but Robin doesn't seem to have been added 'over' him during development. As for the Chorus Kids, note that he says 'some characters slip through the cracks', one of them could've been them.

 

[Troykv]

For the first time in history, there is a tie instead of one winner. It's a tie between Mia and Elincia as the most wanted Path of Radiance characters. Mist was the least wanted and King Ashnard was in between.

Next is the second d Ike's games, starting with a fan favorite mage. Your choices are Micaiah, Oliver, Sephiran, and and Mordecai.

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Begin.

Would post this media in the Micaiah thread please? I'm unable right now to do it myself; sorry.

 

[Deleted member]

Well they could have chosen to NOT have Roy but a different clone. Either way Nintendo would say "Hey, we plan on making this new IP and promote it like Splatoon, we expect it to go similarly" and Sakurai would be all "Aight say no more Shiggy" and do his magic

But there was no time to make Roy an unique character and for that matter, why would Spring Man or anyone else be a clone?

You're also confusing "would" with "could". Just because they could add Spring Man into the base roster doesn't mean they will. It's not like Nintendo has a stranglehold on Sakurai and will force him to include a character that's not needed anyway and can easily wait until DLC.

The argument is: what else are they even attempting to offer? It would probably be too much if it was last time, because there were still characters to choose from. So much so, apparently, that Wolf had to be cut. This time, however, the only "missing" characters besides main franchise content is Ridley or King K. Rool, both of which I doubt under the premise that they did not happen last time. Ridley, was more technical. King K. Rool, or any other Kong, really, I have no idea. My theory is that Nintendo has a problem with Rare, but that is just blasphemous to suggest.

You just have to look at the intended purpose of Smash in a modern context. It is a cross-promotional machine. Why would they neglect Arms, when they have virtually nothing better to offer? And I believe they understand that, we got Inklings before any other Nintendo character this time around. To me, that shows that they understand the importance of new IP. It was almost an admittance that they were left out last time, in a way. In order to make money, you have to spend money. Really obvious stuff to a business, even one as inept as Nintendo. Furthermore, this is marketing toward Switch fans and Arms is literally one of like 4 Switch exclusive games. One of which was a "party" "game" and the other was the pseudo-port. I somehow forgot Odyssey, but that was there. Arms was at the forefront of early (post BotW) Switch marketing. If they had no faith in it, they would have "waited to see if it proves itself" back then, which they tried and failed with Wonder 101. I believe they learned their lesson.

If Arms was too late, so was Xenoblade 2, and I am sure most people doubt that notion. I understand that Xenoblade vaguely "proved" itself, but X2 had not. I would even go as far as to say that if Arms completely bombed, we might still see the character because they might want to try and salvage the IP. It did well enough, though. Arguably the best for inclusion in Smash. Splatoon did so well, that they put it off. Doing just "okay" is the BEST reason to include them and up the name recognition.

We made the same argument last game that we were running out of candidates to include and yet we got seventeen newcomers last game before DLC. Even if you discount Ridley and King K. Rool (and I wouldn't rule out the latter yet), we have characters from Mario, Kirby, Zelda, Wario, Wolf and Ice Climber's return, Pokémons, Fire Emblem (that alone always have plenty of potential choices), Pikmin, Rhythm Heaven, Animal Crossing, Xenoblade (and I will get to this), and retro franchises that could all get a character. That's discounting third-parties, which are going to be the elephant in the room. People act like that Nintendo has run out of stuff to offer when in reality, even if we assume they ruled out everything in between NES/Game Boy and recent appearances, that's more than enough to give us a similar amount of newcomers to Brawl and Smash 4 if they want it. We assume there's nothing left because we don't do the digging to find what they could add. And all of these characters at the time the roster was being decided would have more merits to inclusion than ARMS did. Timing hurts Spring Man more than anything here.

As for the cross-promotional argument, we saw the same thing with Splatoon. People thought that them getting in as DLC for Smash 3DS & Wii U was inevitable because it was a new IP that Nintendo heavily promoted. Yet they didn't get in because Splatoon came too late for character consideration, all they got was a Mii Costume. They got in this game because they themselves. Why would ARMS get special treatment when their situation is no better than that of the Inklings back in Smash 3DS & Wii U?

The comparison to Rex and Pyra is also flawed because they come from a franchise that already has a character in. That's why they are the most likely newcomers for this game because their IP has already proven their merits. Frankly, they have a better shot at an E3 reveal than Spring Man.

We're talking about an ARMS rep, right? Unprecedented feels like a strong word, it's definitely a comparable situation to Greninja and Roy, even if some of the minutia are different. Plus, Nintendo was all over trying to make ARMS really popular right from the get-go, with DLC, sponsored tournaments, etc. While I won't go as far as to say an ARMS rep is guaranteed, I do think they're in a pretty good spot.

Yes.

To be fair, I can understand the arguments for Spring Man's inclusion and I don't think it's totally impossible for them to get into the base roster. In fact, I used to think they were likely for the base roster as well. But I can't help but feel as they're in a similar, if not worse position than the Inklings in Smash 3DS & Wii U.

I'm certain they'll show up in the game eventually, it just might be DLC.

 

[Morbi]

Oh definitely, and since Nintendo has pushed the IP I do feel that they still have a good chance. However, I do also feel that we can't push them as a shoo-in based on merits that likely didn't affect any character choices, development doesn't seem to be that flexible.



False based on what though? The only characters we know of that were added during development are Sonic (who was intended to be added earlier as a popular character choice, and ended up throwing off production with his late addition and thus shows why they would avoid that), Greninja (who was deliberately mentioned to take a slot set aside), and clones. The rest that we know of were not added past the initial draft, which would leave anything else as conjecture. It could be the case that characters are added, but if it is it's not reflected at all in Sakurai's own words or in what information we do have.



There are other characters to draw from that aren't in ARMs such as Elma or a Gen 7 Pokémon. ARMs not being present wouldn't kill the roster if other popular, notable, or unique choices are added.

Also, again nothing says they weren't added during the drafting phase. We know Nintendo pushed ARMs heavily, it is possible they would try to push it using Smash as well and introduce the character and franchise to Sakurai.



And note the date of the project proposal was April 2012, which means Robin was decided on (or at least was in consideration) pretty much as soon as the project began. Chrom probably was considered, but Robin doesn't seem to have been added 'over' him. As for the Chorus Kids, note that he says 'some characters slip through the cracks', one of them could've been them.

I should not have included "we" into that context. It is just a personal belief I have as it makes literally no discernible sense. I do have to; however, point out that it is hilarious that you went out of your way to support my conclusion. Thank you.

 

[Hinata]

If I may, I'd like to propose a new poll for this thread in honor of the announcement that came today.

"With the announcement of the Smash Switch Invitational, do you think we'll see more news/gameplay before E3?"

 

[Morbi]

But there was no time to make Roy an unique character and for that matter, why would Spring Man or anyone else be a clone?

You're also confusing "would" with "could". Just because they could add Spring Man into the base roster doesn't mean they will. It's not like Nintendo has a stranglehold on Sakurai and will force him to include a character that's not needed anyway and can easily wait until DLC.
We made the same argument last game that we were running out of candidates to include and yet we got seventeen newcomers last game before DLC. Even if you discount Ridley and King K. Rool (and I wouldn't rule out the latter yet), we have characters from Mario, Kirby, Zelda, Wario, Wolf and Ice Climber's return, Pokémons, Fire Emblem (that alone always have plenty of potential choices), Pikmin, Rhythm Heaven, Animal Crossing, Xenoblade (and I will get to this), and retro franchises that could all get a character. That's discounting third-parties, which are going to be the elephant in the room. People act like that Nintendo has run out of stuff to offer when in reality, even if we assume they ruled out everything in between NES/Game Boy and recent appearances, that's more than enough to give us a similar amount of newcomers to Brawl and Smash 4 if they want it. We assume there's nothing left because we don't do the digging to find what they could add. And all of these characters at the time the roster was being decided would have more merits to inclusion than ARMS did. Timing hurts Spring Man more than anything here.

As for the cross-promotional argument, we saw the same thing with Splatoon. People thought that them getting in as DLC for Smash 3DS & Wii U was inevitable because it was a new IP that Nintendo heavily promoted. Yet they didn't get in because Splatoon came too late for character consideration, all they got was a Mii Costume. They got in this game because they themselves. Why would ARMS get special treatment when their situation is no better than that of the Inklings back in Smash 3DS & Wii U?

The comparison to Rex and Pyra is also flawed because they come from a franchise that already has a character in. That's why they are the most likely newcomers for this game because their IP has already proven their merits. Frankly, they have a better shot at an E3 reveal than Spring Man.

I never really saw that argument last time myself. And while there are still characters, hundreds, even, they are not really the type of characters that would justify the production of a new Smash when they could have easily just made it a full port and covered their bases. Do not get me wrong, I believe this game and its roster will be fine, but we are literally scrapping at the bottom of the barrel. You have to remember, this game is not just made for us, it is made for casuals. That is apparently why Bayonetta won. People actually recognized Bayonetta over most existing Nintendo characters. That speaks volumes, if you ask me.

I just do not believe it is, at this point, there is really no evidence one way or the other. All I know is that Arms makes sense if you do not overthink it. The opposite is also true, it does not make sense to neglect the series.

I would argue there was time. Splatoon launched soon enough, they opted not to include them. Presumably, dun dun dun, because they had this game planned and they desperately NEEDED characters for it. Fun fact, it came out before Fire Emblem Fates. Another fun fact, there were not already 6 Inklings on the roster when they opted out of choosing them.

You cannot call my precedent half-baked and then rely on half-baked precedent. Either all ambiguous precedent is valid or none of it is. I mean, pick and choose all you want, but it is not great argumentation.

 

[Arcanir]

I should not have included "we" into that context. It is just a personal belief I have as it makes literally no discernible sense. I do have to; however, point out that it is hilarious that you went out of your way to support my conclusion. Thank you.

I...didn't? The argument was about whether Sakurai would add a character in the middle of development and I only address the other option offhand as a possibility during it, so I'm not sure why you'd find that hilarious when that was never the focus in the first place.

 

[Morbi]

I...didn't? The argument was about whether Sakurai would add a character in the middle of development and I only address the other option offhand as a possibility during it, so I'm not sure why you'd find that hilarious when that was never the focus in the first place.

Not sure why you put that in question form; however, yes you did. You provided plenty of examples that contradict that he does not adjust the roster sparing me the effort. The question then becomes, will Arms be an exception. And my answer, if you could not already guess, is: obviously.

 

[KingBroly]

I think one thing we're going to see is that idea of alternate characters as replacement skins for certain characters (I.E. Lucina/Roy for Marth, Dr. Mario, Dark Pit, etc.) BUT BUT BUT combined with the alternate moves mechanics, so like Mortal Kombat X.

So what does that mean?
Classic Link for BotW Link
Dark Samus for Samus
Dixie Kong for Diddy Kong
and so on

 

[MamaLuigi123456]

I think one thing we're going to see is that idea of alternate characters as replacement skins for certain characters (I.E. Lucina/Roy for Marth, Dr. Mario, Dark Pit, etc.) BUT BUT BUT combined with the alternate moves mechanics, so like Mortal Kombat X.

So what does that mean?
Classic Link for BotW Link
Dark Samus for Samus
Dixie Kong for Diddy Kong
and so on

You're not really taking out clones/semi-clones by doing that; you're just changing how they're selected. And at that rate, why bother?

I'm not against the idea per say, just stating the facts as they are.

 

[Morbi]

I think one thing we're going to see is that idea of alternate characters as replacement skins for certain characters (I.E. Lucina/Roy for Marth, Dr. Mario, Dark Pit, etc.) BUT BUT BUT combined with the alternate moves mechanics, so like Mortal Kombat X.

So what does that mean?
Classic Link for BotW Link
Dark Samus for Samus
Dixie Kong for Diddy Kong
and so on

It is definitely something I would want to see; however, it contradicts his stance on what he would consider a clone, worthy of their own slot. So it would surprise me, to say the least. But I would definitely be down.

 

[KingBroly]

You're not really taking out clones/semi-clones by doing that; you're just changing how they're selected. And at that rate, why bother?

I'm not against the idea per say, just stating the facts as they are.

Why bother half-assing alternate movesets in Smash 4 then? They even stopped doing it for DLC characters.

 

[ColietheGoalie]

Why bother half-assing alternate movesets in Smash 4 then? They even stopped doing it for DLC characters.

Honestly I'd just cut the custom movesets thing. They're obviously too much work to do right, and all they do is confuse the character and make competitive matches more tricky to regulate.

 

[Arcanir]

Not sure why you put that in question form; however, yes you did. You provided plenty of examples that contradict that he does not adjust the roster sparing me the effort. The question then becomes, will Arms be an exception. And my answer, if you could not already guess, is: obviously.

I think you need to look at those options more carefully (particularly since I mentioned all but one in the first post):
-Sonic: Was drafted into the roster as a popular character choice to be added, which means he was intended to be added earlier rather then later. He was only added late because SEGA said no originally and then went back on it in 2007, and in fact as said before him being added when he was is actually a counterpoint since he threw things off by doing do, such as causing the delay that hit Brawl and maybe causing some of the cuts like Mewtwo.
-Clones: They're added if the developers have a little time to add them by using assets from other pre-existing characters.
-Greninja: Pokémon from XY was set aside as a slot, which means that in the technical sense he already had his place drafted into the roster. The roster can't be adjusted for something that was already accounted for.

So of those options, only one was added late by intention: Clones, and they're considered extras for how little development time they take up relative to other characters. Greninja was a slot set aside and thus was already planned for in the first place, and the other was intended to be added earlier and caused things to go through a loop due to SEGA changing their minds. Additionally, none of them were added when they were as a result of a game doing well or being popular, thus ARMs in your scenario would not fit.

Regardless, I mentioned them as exception since they are, well, exceptions. Out of 60+ characters, the only characters that weren't added early and weren't clones you can count on one hand, and of them Sonic's case is a very lone outlier since it was a unique scenario of negotiations that hasn't happened in other Smash games, and the other cases like Greninja are slots that are intended to be in the roster to begin with. That doesn't bode well for an ARMs character if they weren't considered when Sakurai was in his planning stages since then that'd mean they weren't a slot set aside to be filled or added to the game proper, especially if the idea is to have them as their own unique characters.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

I'd have Custom Moveset as they existed in Smash 4 cut for all except Miis and maybe Palutena and in the cases where they still exist, have a menu option to customise them before battle.

In place of them, there should be fewer, more developed alternate movesets. BotW Link, Vaccum Luigi, Boost Sonic, Evil Ruy, you name it.

 

[RawstyleEevee]

I think you need to look at those options more carefully (particularly since I mentioned all but one in the first post):
-Sonic: Was drafted into the roster as a popular character choice to be added, and was only added late because SEGA said no originally and then went back on it. In fact, as said before him being added when he was is actually a counterpoint since he threw things off by doing do, such as likely causing the delay that hit Brawl and maybe causing some of the cuts like Mewtwo.
-Clones: They're added if the developers have a little time to add them by using assets from other pre-existing characters.
-Greninja: Pokémon from XY was set aside as slot, which means that in the technical sense he was already drafted in the roster.

So of those options, only one was added late by intention: Clones. Greninja was a slot set aside and thus was already planned in the first place (it was just a matter of picking which one), and the other was intended to be added earlier and caused things to go through a loop due to SEGA changing their minds.. None of them were added when they were as a result of a game doing well or being popular, ARMs in your scenario would not fit.

Regardless, I mentioned them as exception since they are, well, exceptions. Out of 60+ characters, the only characters that weren't added early and weren't clones you can count on one hand, and in Sonic's case it's a very lone outlier since it hasn't happened in other Smash games. That doesn't bode well for an ARMs character if they weren't considered when Sakurai was in his planning stages, especially if the idea is to have them as their own unique characters.

Think Rex/Pyra fill the Greninja slot of this game, due Sakurai has an interest in the Xeno franchise. I do agree that Arms could be to soon.

 

[DutchPichu]

What I liked to think about, what are the new Nintendo series that are going to get a character in the new Smash? In Smash 4 we had shoe-ins like Animal Crossing, Duck Hunt, Punch-Out!!, Wii Fit and Xenoblade. Those five series were all huge sellers.

But to think about it like this: which five Nintendo series do we think they will get a character first? Well, Splatoon is one we know about. Next up, maybe Chibi-Robo? That is a fairly popular game with enough games in the series. Zip Lash was in development while character planning was done for Smash 5. Then, Golden Sun? Isaac has a big fanbase, so I believe that he has a shot if Sakurai notices it. The fourth series is ARMS, but we don't know that for sure (planning state). I believe that Spring Man will be in actually.

Then lastly, Rhythm Heaven. Why isn't there much talk about Rhythm Heaven on this forum? I feel like a Rhythm Heaven character is a shoe-in. It is a big series, with a lot to pull from. Can bring a unique music mechanic. It has lots of original characters. Why don't you guys talk about Rhythm Heaven? Don't you think a character of that series is coming?

 

[Onua]

imo the chars with best chances of getting in as a fighter this time around (new chars)

Spring Man or Ribbon Girl
Rex or Pyra or the two together
Fossil Fighter
Decidueye
Rayman, Heihachi, Crash or Phoenix as the 3rd party char (I doubt we will get more than 1)
A new FE rep (as much as it doesnt need it)
A new Mario rep (as much as it doesnt need it) would probs be daisy, waluigi or captain toad(honestly idk who else would even work)
K Rool or Ridley (I just have this gut feeling one of these two will be added this time)
Medusa or Hades
Impa, Midna or Skull kid
2 or 3 obscure chars from smaller series probably

 

[Cutie Gwen]

But there was no time to make Roy an unique character and for that matter, why would Spring Man or anyone else be a clone?

My argument was they could just make a different character a clone instead of Roy, how the **** did you get "Should have made a unique character" from that? Or that Spring Man would be a clone? My argument was they added a character who's game wasn't out before, then YOU went "Doesn't count because the franchise was in" and now you're moving the goalpost again!

Why bother half-assing alternate movesets in Smash 4 then? They even stopped doing it for DLC characters.

DLC is sold separately so you can't just make a cheap clone that costs next to no time to develop. It takes ZERO time to bring the characters back and they were separated for a reason. Oh, btw Doc wasn't half assed and Dark Samus and Dixie would be REALLY undersold like that, especially the latter as she's still popular and relevant

 

[Inawordyes]

If we're going to be getting characters from the last console generation, then hopefully Wonder Red has a chance! Despite not performing well in sales (because it was on the Wii U), it was really well-received, and his moveset practically writes itself.

I really, really want Wonder Red

 

[Nauzgo]

which five Nintendo series do we think they will get a character first?

There's not really that much left to choose from. Spring Man will probably be in it, as DLC or in the vanilla version. Rhythm Heaven as pretty popular franchise stands a pretty good chance but then again we don't know why there wasn't already a rep in Sm4sh. Thanks to the ballot, Isaac will be considered aswell. I think the other ones are very unlikely, since the other left series have either no fitting character (f.e. Art Academy, Style Savvy?), haven't sold that well lately (Project Zero, Fossil Fighters, Chibi Robo) or are pretty much dead (Custom Robo, Wars, Sin & Punishment, Starfy). Maybe Dillon and obviously the retro and wtf character like Takamaru and Labobot.

 

[Stratos]

I want to believe that Sonic the Hedgehog will return and this time.

 

[Mario & Sonic Guy]

I'll never really understand the hatred towards custom special moves. I get that the way they're unlocked can be really time-consuming, but the potential is there if given the chance.

For one example, I like the idea of a faster variant of Warlock Punch, but it does need to be fixed up so that it's actually practical enough to use; less powerful than Warlock Punch, but still deals enough knockback to make KOs at realistic damage percentages.

 

[Pacack]

Time for a bold prediction from me.

Neither Spring Man nor Rex will make the base roster, but both will make it as DLC.