Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Pyra]

Incineroar Hypotheticals:
Disclaimer - treat these like shower thoughts. None of this is evidence, all of it is conjecture from me just stewing on things. None of this proves or denies anything.

1. "Astroturf Leak" : In other words, certain things were allowed to leak with the explicit direction that there be some misdirection. If you recall, Sakurai has commented on leaks once already. He said that he was very thankful that the big E3 surprise wasn't in a huge leak. It was leaked, but not in some really huge, article generating way, after E3 had already started (right? correct me if I'm wrong.). He also said that unless absolutely necessary, nothing important left the team. Of course, as time goes on, more and more information will need to be shared with outside sources. What he was saying was explicitly about the E3 presentation, but it's not a to ridiculous a stretch to think they would be protective of leaks going forward. The biggest surprise is in the past, now, so maybe not. In any case, if we are to treat Sakurai and the team as the PRIMARY SOURCE, from which every other "source" must get their info, and they were to "astroturf" information, so to speak, then every single source that every insider is implied to have would have that misleading information.
   
   However, we are so close to the release to the game at this point, that jebaiting Marketing with false information would probably just end up with them shooting themselves in the foot, and I would imagine a lot of these news outlets get their insider information from seeing press kits. They could also have other sources within different departments, or QA testers or just other friends in the know. This is where it gets muddled even further.
   
   But the point is the intention; perhaps everyone in this source layer- Marketing, other Nintendo departments, Testers- is told they are totally allowed to talk about specific bits of information once it is given to them, so long as they talk about the fake information as well, with no risk of jeopardizing their job. Not only would they be allowed, but perhaps DIRECTED to do so. In other words, they have things they absolutely cannot talk about, things that are "allowed" to leak, and things that MUST be leaked (i.e. fake information), only when the information is eventually fed to them.
   
   No K. Rool, because that was a strict no-no, but Simon and Isabelle, for instance.
   
   Also, this would be why Incineroar didn't really pop up until later and the only talks beforehand were about the Gen 7 Pokemon that "absolutely must be in because PATTERNS!".
   
   tl;dr: There are things that "can" be leaked as long as other, less genuine things are ALSO "leaked", and things that absolutely must not be leaked.
   The primary source for any and all information is from Sakurai and the team closest to him, so in that case, every source that gets information from them ALSO would have the "bogus" information, and is INTENTIONALLY helping out by leaking real and fake things at the same time. Real things are allowed to be leaked to make the fake things more believable.
   
   
2. Incineroar is in the base roster:
   The banner is fake, in that case. Not the characters, but the mural. Incineroar being in the base roster implies nothing about the other characters, but the mural itself is fake because it does not include Incineroar. Unless, of course, this isn't the final version of the mural.
   
   With so little time between now and the release, could you believe that?
   
   Unless! November is filled with little mini-directs in a sort of Advent Calendar style. Frequently, on days in November (but not every day), Nintendo "opens a door of the calendar" so to speak to reveal one tidbit or another. What, then, would the mural be for? Well, the second Nintendo Live event in Kyoto. This would assume that 6 or 7 "Mini Directs" happen between now and November 23rd, but not the mini direct that has Incineroar with it, thus resulting in a banner that has all of these characters and yet no Incineroar.
   
   
3. Incineroar is DLC:
   The most straightforward without Incineroar just not being in the game at all. He isn't on the banner, because he's DLC. This implies nothing on the mural is DLC, though, or that DLC characters will not be added to it.

All in all, we all can be totally sure about only one thing surrounding Incineroar - several people who would be in a position to know something more about the game than the general public think Incineroar is in the game. Therefore, it would be hard for me to believe Incineroar wasn't on the roster at some point, or a smoke trap.

Now, I feel like I should disclaim again:

These are basically shower thoughts surrounding Incineroar's supposed inclusion. These are not arguments one way or the other, but I am offering these thoughts for the sake of conversation.
As it stands right now, I think it's likely Incineroar is in the game in some way (I'll have to eat pants thanks to my bet, but fine).


But I also don't think Incineroar being "bait" is too much of a stretch either.
I don't think it would be that hard to believe the kind of 4D chess Nintendo and others are willing to play to try to keep anything major from happening.
And yet...


"They wouldn't do that because that's ridiculous" is hardly ever a good argument, especially in this context.
After all, the Grinch leak implies an incredibly ridiculous scenario if it's fake!

 

[TheBlue10]

I like how people are using that Vergeben screenshot to think he's panicking when there a big "Two week ago" and it was waaay before the banner leak, and it was because people were in full spammage of @ to him.

Frick
I have exposed myself

 

[Wambo]

The banner could’ve been sent out to be used as a reference sheet for printers. You know, to test how the light affects the colors and what not. And if this was essentially the first complete form of it, that would explain the background inconsistencies.

But why update it before the characters are even announced?

 

[JacobLeBeauOFFICIAL]

Three posts of the papageno video in one page

 

[Majalbatross]

S-stop saying it's real, guys! Here's the undeniable proof it's fake!

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

You know what? I hope he ends up looking like a fool, I don't think he's a very pleasant person

That's kinda rude don't you think?
It makes sense that he's mad...
People have been harassing him endlessly...

 

[Metal Shop X]

Genuinely trying not to laugh that the same video gets posted 3 times within a minute, especially when the creator has an active account here.

papagenos has quite the community here.

LOL, my bad, I didn't see it.

Sorry papagenos , really wanted to post your video as soon as possible, but I guess I should have looked first haha,

 

[Deleted member]

I don't know why we gotta treat this "team" stuff so seriously. Wasn't it only started as joke to begin with?

Besides, even if I think it's fake, I'm not on Team Fake. I'm Team "Inklings are pretty cool, and it's amazing we're gonna get to play this game in like a month".

 

[ButterGeek]

Seems like Vergeben has gone crazy :/

https://imgur.com/a/Fir6x0w

Seen in reddit: https://imgur.com/a/Fir6x0w

I don't think we went crazy, I think he just ****ing snapped

 

[TMNTSSB4]

Seems like Vergeben has gone crazy :/

https://imgur.com/a/Fir6x0w

Seen in reddit: https://imgur.com/a/Fir6x0w

Shouldn’t have started what he did

 

[Zenos]

Some people speculated about ACP-PLV taking down a video on something completely unrelated to Smash (work environment) but I didn't really think much of it still.

I'm not taking sides, but this became a thing, so...

Curious. That video was probably getting a lot of attention purely because of all the smash speculation though. I came across it myself after some poking around.

The video is also two years old, and ACP-PLV would had to have contacted someone else to take it down since they didn't own that channel. I won't make any guesses as to why this occurred, but I think it's worth noting.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

It's almost as if he needs to deal with a bunch of man-children calling him a fraud at every turn. Imagine that.

It's like poking your hand into a beehive to obtain honey. Technically you can do it, but you still shouldn't because you'll just get hurt in the process.

 

[JustCallMeJon]

S-stop saying it's real, guys! Here's the undeniable proof it's fake!

The whole LEAK is a photoshopped Little Mac!

 

[Sergeant_Snivy]

One thing I haven't seen anybody bring up yet is that this banner art leaked, right? And it's been about, what? Five days or so? If this new banner artwork exists, and it's out there, how come? And how come there haven't been any announcements for a Nintendo Direct yet? If there isn't a Direct soon, this leak will become less and less valid, unfortunately.

This is a new banner, but it couldn't have gotten out there unless there was/is for sure going to be a Direct soon. So, what's the explanation behind this?

I fail to see how a Direct matters here. If the leak is real, then it means that Nintendo/Bandai Namco it may be is having merchandise be made for the game. Why would the timing of a Direct matter for that?

 

[Deleted member]

Imagine that we get Goku, but as the Dragon Ball Evolution version.

 

[Jess. Alakasam]

S-stop saying it's real, guys! Here's the undeniable proof it's fake!

This is a high quality post

 

[SargeAbernathy]

Who's yall's biggest pipe dream fighter? Mine would be Geralt of Rivia

Probably Tails from the Sonic franchise, Sans and Papyrus from Undertale, and Gex would be hilarious because you'd have to bring in his sarcasm.

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

That's kinda rude don't you think?
It makes sense that he's mad...
People have been harassing him endlessly...

I wouldn't say that condones the times when he's unpleasant despite that stuff. Or how he uses autism for an insult or is genuinely rude even before the harassment. Not that it condones harassing but Verge is not a nice person.

 

[KirbyWorshipper2465]

Imagine that we get Goku, but as the Dragon Ball Evolution version.

I'm pretty sure they're aware of how much of a dumpster fire that was. Not even Sakurai would touch that.

 

[Polan]

I like how people are using that Vergeben screenshot to think he's panicking when there a big "Two week ago" and it was waaay before the banner leak, and it was because people were in full spammage of @ to him.

yeah smashboard's hateboner for vergeben is pretty ridiculous. and personally, i think that hate is probably one of the main reasons why people are fervently backing this leak. gotta stick it to the guy that ruined 'muh hype' with his leaks.

 

[NotLiquid]

"Sakurai rushed back from E3 to add Banjo into the roster based on a meeting and cut out Incineroar as a result."

Yeah, nah. Sorry. I don't buy that for a minute.

 

[Chrollo.]

Seems like Vergeben has gone crazy :/

https://imgur.com/a/Fir6x0w

Seen in reddit: https://imgur.com/a/Fir6x0w

i dont get why he still uses ganefaqs they despise him there

 

[Deleted member]

I’m surprised by the fact that Shovel Knight doesn’t have a cameo or reference in Undertale.

 

[FalconFire93]

Imagine that we get Goku, but as the Dragon Ball Evolution version.

That would make it a really dark timeline.

 

[KMDP]

Ya know, it's kinda funny. Those saying they can "knock it out in an hour" have had this gone on for 3 days (72 hours) and not one after all that had broken down and used one of those 72 to demonstrate they actually could.

I mean, I guess one person... "tried"?

EDIT: Correction, 5 days (120 hours)

Obviously it's so easy nobody even needs to try, right?
(Apologies to people who really think the leak is fake for the sarcasm, I just thought it was a funny thing to say.)

S-stop saying it's real, guys! Here's the undeniable proof it's fake!

Oh my god, leak busted. Pack it up, you guys.

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

"Sakurai rushed back from E3 to add Banjo into the roster based on a meeting and cut out Incineroar as a result."

Yeah, nah. Sorry. I don't buy that for a minute.

Who's saying that??

 

[Smashoperatingbuddy123]

New video by are very own

papagenos

 

[Fane]

So, what’s the situation on the Grinch leak now? I’m at work, so I’ve been out of the loop.

Quick rundown for anyone and everyone that wants the general history(Let me know if I miss anything):
-Leak surfaces, community, content creators, generally everyone goes crazy
-Grinch + Eric Bricard + Marina connections further the craziness, loads of people cling to it being real
-People call it fake as they thought the B+K art was just the Smashified artwork, quickly dismissed though
-Most Insiders and content creators either approach it neutrally or outright call it fake w/ little to no explanation
-Background inconsistencies discovered, more lean to it being fake
-Background inconsistencies discovered as excusable due to poor quality and blurriness actually being able to distort images, thus the real crowd comes back
-Discovered that the background has actually changed even slightly throughout iterations
-Marina comes out dismissing this and says they aren't working on Ultimate at all, claims Eric Bricard hasn't worked there since 2016, people lean back towards fake
-Surprise! Eric has another Linkedin, this time with his current job at a place called APV and has worked there for almost two years, team real comes back again
-People claim 50 year olds using SnapChat is unlikely
-Insiders generally go quiet, stick to neutrality, or continue to claim it's fake... yet again, with little evidence or reasoning
-People claim Insiders are being paid off by Nintendo to keep it hush hush, why? I have no clue
-Serebii was here briefly generally speaking nothing worth mentioning other than language policing in a post
-Is it a wristband? lantern? tube display? bracelet? everyone for some reason can't agree on one thing which is overall unimportant
-Somewhere in the mix PapaGenos says he has a credible and trusted source who has a source at Microsoft that said Banjo is in and he heard the other characters and Incineroar, confused why Incineroar isn't there
-People assume Incineroar is leak bait or that this leak is leak bait and is fake
-Billybo10k got a video flagged, but it was during upload, so it really means nothing
-APV took down a video that showed operations essentially, people freak out as result
-People learn that Vergeben is generally an ***hat and has gone nuts

No consensus reached yet, videos are being attacked, news sites are grammar nazis, insiders/content creators are all over the place with conflicting info, maybe you shouldn't have Linkedin anymore, 50 year olds do indeed use Snapchat, there's more than one printing press company in France, people can have a previous and current job, watching people investigate this leak is like watching a dog chase it's own tail and never get tired, The Grinch stole Christmas and is now stealing away the fun out of Smash speculation and it's turning into a stressful and irritating civil war between team real, team fake, insiders, and content creators.

 

[Cahalan]

I'm certain that Incineroar is DLC or leak bait.

Sakurai's taken notes from Harada's methods of dealing with leaks, and intentionally spread misinformation.

Nintendo must have anticipated leaks happening around November when printing ad material begins...

 

[osby]

The whole LEAK is a photoshopped Little Mac!

Now it's became obvious that it's a fake leak, it photoshopped over Smash For Little Mac. Ultimate art always made by photoshopping Ultimate Mac.

 

[DutchPichu]

New video by are very own

papagenos

papagenos thanks for this clear and honest video.

 

[FalconFire93]

Who's yall's biggest pipe dream fighter? Mine would be Geralt of Rivia

Kratos, Master Chief, Doom Guy, and Sub Zero from Mortal Kombat for me.

 

[lightdrago]

papagenos video was interesting...

He believes the Grinch leak is real. He theorizes that Sakurai secured the rights for Banjo during E3, and rushed back to develop him. Believing Incineroar to be both low priority and a late addition, Sakurai cut him from the base roster to pour time and resources into Banjo. However, he also states that Incineroar has been saved for DLC, if that's the case.

I'm not sure if I totally believe it, but it is something. I still believe in Incineroar, but whether he is base of DLC is anyone's guess now...

 

[EnthusedPanda]

Vergeben gradually loses credibility when he acts out like this. I genuinely believe he’s right about Incineroar, and the onus is really on us (lol) to reflect critically on the past trends of leaks (Gematsu namely) and the fact Verge simply doesn’t know every newcomer and has stated as much.

Like, the banner leak and Incineroar can, and likely do, coexist to some extent. Incineroar may have been Gematsu’d, however.

Vergeben should keep that in mind and probably stay in the shadows for a while. If he readily admits he doesn’t know the entire roster, seeing some previously unknown characters shouldn’t be what breaks him mentally.

We also shouldn’t harass him.

 

[kirbsmash]

I don't know why we gotta treat this "team" stuff so seriously. Wasn't it only started as joke to begin with?

Besides, even if I think it's fake, I'm not on Team Fake. I'm Team "Inklings are pretty cool, and it's amazing we're gonna get to play this game in like a month".

Honey, this is Smash.

 

[Nekoo]

"Sakurai rushed back from E3 to add Banjo into the roster based on a meeting and cut out Incineroar as a result."

Yeah, nah. Sorry. I don't buy that for a minute.

Yeaaaah...Same, I don't buy it too.

>Cut Incineroar for Banjo when he got the right for it Last E3, which mean that he had 4 months to work on Banjo if we assume the Game went gold around Mid/End October
>Implying Banjo would be a Sonic Situation when Sonic was already FAAAIRLY advanced and playable in Demoes when the game was delayed alongside a ****-tons of trophies and a Stage

I love you Papageno but that won't make it for me...

 

[Deleted member]

Who's saying that??

Sakurai himself.

I saw him on a bar today, drinking beer and feeling bad.

He ranted to me about that.

 

[Megadoomer]

So, out of these Capcom characters, rank them by how much you would wan to see them in Ultimate;

Dante
Leon Kennedy
Amaterasu
Phoniex Wright
Monster Hunter

1. Dante - I wrote up a moveset for him that was basically three different movesets, when I hadn't even finished Devil May Cry 4 at the time. I'd be incredibly excited to see him in, and there's so much that he could do.

2. Amaterasu - while I haven't played much of Okami, from what I've seen of the character in Okami and MvC3, it seems like she'd be a lot of fun to play as.

3. Leon Kennedy - RE4 is one of the few Resident Evil games that I've gotten into, and while he'd likely be hampered for similar reasons as Snake, Leon could be entertaining

4. Phoenix Wright - as a general rule, I tend to prefer characters who would work well in a fighting game; I know that Phoenix was in MvC3, but he doesn't seem like as good of a fit as the others

5. Monster Hunter - nothing against the character or their fanbase; my only experience with the series was Monster Hunter Tri on the Wii, and that was mostly one of frustration. (either the enemies were so fast that my attacks couldn't hit, or they had so much health that I couldn't kill them within the time limit/number of lives)

 

[NotLiquid]

Who's saying that??

PapaGenos' theory is that Incineroar was dropped in the last minute in favor of Banjo after Sakurai had a meeting with Microsoft at E3 this year, which was supposedly why he rushed back after the tournament.

This is a nonsensical theory. The last few months of game development is usually spent on debugging. By that time in development, Incineroar was likely complete. You don't drop a character like that for something that you just decided on.

 

[S_B]

I've been thinking a lot about this and I'm trying to wrap my head around the psychology for the leak and why it happened and who was truly responsible. I feel like there are three possible reasons this could've happened including three different responsible parties...

Scenario 1: The Grandson
The real leaker is Eric Bricard...the 3rd, grandson to Eric Bricard whom was taken on a tour of the facility by his grandfather and casually snapchatted a video of these promo materials to one of his friends, thus ruining his grandfather's career. Probably an early to mid-teen.

But I don't think this is likely, mainly because I can't imagine security would be this lax and I'm guessing Eric Sr. would've explained just how important it is to not take photos of ANYTHING.

Scenario 2: The Elaborate Hoax
I'm a cynic to the core and I don't trust anyone or anything until I've validated it personally. We only have it on the authority of a very small French gaming news blog (which doesn't even have its own website, just a blogspot) that ACP-PLV or Bricard were contacted. To me, that's not enough proof.

However, the reaction from all of the media outlets with ties to Nintendo, all of the "insiders" (who didn't know the full roster until recently and now suddenly know the whole thing so they can tell us it's fake), and youtube channels who have been starving for SSBU news in this two month dry spell and are for some reason willing to pass up on a GOLDEN source of ad revenue have convinced me the leak is real. APC-PLV's video showing the inside of their facility was even taken down (though not before people watched it and compared the printing the video showed to the printing in the leak).

Beyond that, if this is all an elaborate hoax, Bricard has a huge, HUUUUGE lawsuit he could file for defamation of character, especially because this is his livelihood.

So I'm leaning toward #3...

Scenario 3: Eric Bricard, Clueless Senior and Accidental Leaker Extraordinaire
Eric Bricard graduated in 1984, meaning he'd be somewhere between 55-65 years old today. I believe he did leak this, but had no idea the ramifications of doing so. Here's why...

Picture a man your parents' age. Someone showed him Snapchat, possibly a younger coworker, and while he knows how to use it, he likely doesn't know that Snapchat isn't really as secure as it makes itself out to be, as we all know it's possible to screen capture Snapchat video and photos. Eric likely didn't know this.

What Eric also didn't know is that Nintendo's strict security standards that apply to all of their promotional products, while seemingly asinine to him (hence the "**** Nintendo" message in the picture, complete with the "LOL" which is something an older person trying to be "hip" to social media would use), were in place for a very real reason. This may have been the first time ACP had worked with Nintendo, and Nintendo is very, VERY strict about how their products are handled (look up stories by 3rd party devs about Nintendo's exacting standards).

These standards were likely something Eric wasn't used to, and he also likely had no idea that the picture on this piece of promotional art was going to be such a huge deal because, being a senior citizen, he has no clue that there was an ocean of SSB fans desperately seeking news of any kind. In his mind, Nintendo was just being unreasonably strict, and I could see a Snapchat convo unfolding with a "friend" of his about just how stodgy Nintendo was about their promo materials and how it pissed him off.

He then sent a short video clip to said "friend", saying "lol **** Nintendo", assuming that Snapchat would ensure this short video was deleted forever moments later, and because I'm sure he had no idea that the internet would take the video and analyze the hell out of it in order to extract some very specific information.

All he saw was a picture of a bunch of goofy looking characters he'd never heard of all bunched together. He had no idea that the presence of 7 of those 70+ would blow up the entire goddamn internet, and even so, he figured that video would stay private, since that's what Snapchat is supposed to do and all, right...?

The friend haphazardly tried to blot out Eric's name (and got most of it) before leaking it on Discord (IIRC), and the rest is history. One disgruntled advertising associate who was sick of dealing with Nintendo's bull**** regulations about how their materials are handed decided to flip them the middle finger, not knowing the ****storm he was about to unleash.

We really need to start a Patreon for Eric if this whole thing turns out to be real. He made the wait leading up to SSBU the most memorable experience it could've possibly been, and I'm 90% sure he did it entirely by accident.