Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[IcyBrawler]

No. The leak is presented with facts. The company exists, the person exists, the process of using autocad to make hanging standee's exist. These are facts presented to us. You can logically come to the conclusion that someone took a picture and it got out by accident, because that is what the leak is logically presenting. The real side has their proof entirely, they don't have to inference anything.

The fake side is saying that all of these "facts" are just a ruse to confuse and fool people, when they have no basis for that existing because no fact in the leak actually supports it, save for a change in background (which is also an assumption that backgrounds cant change lol)

See how the 2 concepts are entirely different?

I see what you are saying about the differences between fact and speculation.

But from what I've read about Occam's Razor the least complication solution is true. Not necessarily the solution with the least speculation. Here is an example that the Wikipedia page gave:

"Example: A person is standing on the top of a roof and dropping a feather. In calculating how long it takes for the feather to reach the ground. To make the maths simpler, one might make an assumption to disregard air resistance. This assumption makes the problem simpler, but would likely fail to be a good prediction as to the time the feather needs to fall. Thus making the assumption that air resistance can be ignored is in this case not the "simplest" in concept, but simplest in other aspects (here the maths). Not making the assumption here is the "simplest" in concept because you make fewer assumptions."

Basically from what I understand from this, the simplest isn't always the best. By disregarding something like air resistance to calculate something, while you made it simpler which could be good in some cases, in maybe isn't the most accurate.

So in terms of Smash leaks, how can you just completely disregard the fact that Photoshop and other photo manipulators have common use in "leaks" that still haven't been proven? You can say "well I have picture in front of me showing something so obviously this is more real" but in 2018 will this be a 100% accurate assumption? Probably not. Some can argue that saying "people do fakes all the time, this isn't real" is just as if not more accurate then the previous assumption. But more importantly, both points are almost equal in terms of complication.

Yes one is based more off of fact (the first point) but as I mentioned that doesn't seem to matter in Occam's Razor. The point that I'm trying to make is that there isn't a definitive simplest solution yet, so no one should be able to correctly use the Occam's Razor principle here.

 

[SushiRoll]

yes, its who they are that gives them credibility.

it is a chain though because my source has a microsoft source so im getting info down a line of people

If playing telephone in kindergarten taught me anything it's that info can only pass between half a person before it becomes a jumbled mess

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

I think discrediting credible sources based on things they got wrong in the past is a dumb idea. And ignorant as well if they got things about the game right already as in the case of Emily. It's fine if you don't agree (like myself) but don't go around acting pretentious because they're not confirming the Banner Leak..

I'd have to agree. Getting one thing wrong, or a few things wrong, especially in comparison to the many things they may get right, is hardly what makes them less credible. To me, it would take more fake leaks to be made to put more damage on such reputations. They still aren't perfect, but still there must be more to what makes them less credible than getting things wrong.

Though I personally think they are trying to defend their reputation and make it seem like they are not wrong just because the leak does not match what they say, but that is just me, and insiders and other people doubted the ESRB leak, but for reasons I vaguely remember, let us not go too deep with that comparison, shall we?

 

[TheBazry64]

What you guys think about this:

View attachment 172761

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/436700621

Saw this a few posts ago but this confirms it for me. I am 100% team real now, no leaker would EVER implement such subtile things in a leak cause there is a high chance this would never be found. If you make a fake leak you WANT evidence things to be found.

 

[ChronoBound]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a "crappy" roster? (Note. I think the present roster is fantastic, and I actually would be fine if there were not even any more newcomers for the base game. I just want to know what the single players consists of this time around).

 

[KingBroly]

What you guys think about this:

View attachment 172761

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/436700621

Does that topic have a new angle for it? Seems like it

 

[N3ON]

She backed it up i'm pretty sure. Plus it wouldn't matter because there's plenty more she has been wrong about, including female Link in BOTW, BOTW's release date, Pokemon Stars, etc.

Both Gamecube on VC and Pokemon Stars were Eurogamer. If you're going to dismiss someone's credibility, at least get their claims right. I posted a link of what Emily has said.

But yes, she has gotten things wrong, and shouldn't be treated as gospel. No leaker should. But simply listing the things she's gotten incorrect when the list of what she's gotten right, especially as of late, far exceeds it... just makes everyone outright rejecting her credibility look incredibly biased and even more unreliable.

 

[Ura]

I'd have to agree. Getting one thing wrong, or a few things wrong, especially in comparison to the many things they may get right, is hardly what makes them less credible. To me, it would take more fake leaks to be made to put more damage on such reputations. They still aren't perfect, but still there must be more to what makes them less credible than getting things wrong.

Though I personally think they are trying to defend their reputation and make it seem like they are not wrong just because the leak does not match what they say, but that is just me, and insiders and other people doubted the ESRB leak, but for reasons I vaguely remember, let us not go too deep with that comparison, shall we?

Yeah that's some meta stuff lol.

Basically I chalk it up to them having sources with false info given out by Nintendo or their sources not knowing about characters going around in the leak.

 

[Rummy]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

I'd be cool with that, we got 70+ already. Sakurai blessed us well.

 

[SushiRoll]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

I think this speaks for itself.

 

[Gothitelle]

What you guys think about this:

View attachment 172761

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/436700621

This is a startling development but you know what if it means Mach Rider, Geno, Shadow, and Chorus Kids are all in I'll roll with it

 

[Fenn]

If it's a sticker bracelet, then why does it have a hook/hole design as well?

I'd completely forgot about the hook design, but I have been looking at different designs, and the white rectangle would still make sense for being a bracelet.

 

[Paperchampion23]

I see what you are saying about the differences between fact and speculation.

But from what I've read about Occam's Razor the least complication solution is true. Not necessarily the solution with the least speculation. Here is an example that the Wikipedia page gave:

"Example: A person is standing on the top of a roof and dropping a feather. In calculating how long it takes for the feather to reach the ground. To make the maths simpler, one might make an assumption to disregard air resistance. This assumption makes the problem simpler, but would likely fail to be a good prediction as to the time the feather needs to fall. Thus making the assumption that air resistance can be ignored is in this case not the "simplest" in concept, but simplest in other aspects (here the maths). Not making the assumption here is the "simplest" in concept because you make fewer assumptions."

Basically from what I understand from this, the simplest isn't always the best. By disregarding something like air resistance to calculate something, while you made it simpler which could be good in some cases, in maybe isn't the most accurate.

So in terms of Smash leaks, how can you just completely disregard the fact that Photoshop and other photo manipulators have common use in "leaks" that still haven't been proven? You can say "well I have picture in front of me showing something so obviously this is more real" but in 2018 will this be a 100% accurate assumption? Probably not. Some can argue that saying "people do fakes all the time, this isn't real" is just as if not more accurate then the previous assumption. But more importantly, both points are almost equal in terms of complication.

Yes one is based more off of fact (the first point) but as I mentioned that doesn't seem to matter in Occam's Razor. The point that I'm trying to make is that there isn't a definitive simplest solution yet, so no one should be able to correctly use the Occam's Razor principle here.

You just said it yourself, you are assuming people photoshopped it. And to assume it's shopped is to also assume it was leaked through a legit name, company, LinkedIn profile, movie produces, actual autocad code, and more.

You see how it being fake makes it that much more complicated? I'm not making this up

 

[Deleted member]

no offense but they actually do not count, they even dont include Yoshi and DK characters in the same place as Mario on the smash bros Website...

They are all part of the same shared universe, just given different classifications based on the series.
This is why one of the "Yoshi series" stages comes from Super Mario World as opposed to a game in the Yoshi's Island sub-series, Wrecking Crew gets its own "universe" with a stage while the Golden Hammer from the same exact game is considered a Mario item, etc.

This is the ONLY thing I'm going to say on matter.

 

[amazonevan19]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

I'll be really angry because that would be perhaps the worst way to close this smash cycle, especially after the leak raised everyone's hopes from the box pit of despair. But I'll be thankful for the roster we got and prepare to campaign hard for DLC.

 

[Fane]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

70/30 here at the moment:

Nope! I think the roster as it is now is the best roster we've had in gaming history. This is like... the extra whipped cream on a really good waffle if real.(odd metaphor I know)

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Yeah that's some meta stuff lol.

Basically I chalk it up to them having sources with false info given out by Nintendo or their sources not knowing about characters going around in the leak.

Heh heh! That is also basically what I was thinking! Great minds think alike, do they?

 

[Arymle Roseanne]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

No, as I said before I'm going to enjoy this beautiful game regardless what happens in the final direct. I already have a lot of characters I love on the roster already though I'm going to have to pray that a certain someone becomes dlc...

 

[RandomAce]

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!



https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor
https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

Hmmmm let’s see.

> Someone who works at a marketing company is apparently mad at his/her job and decided to put it on their Snapchat story. The picture had a completed mural with the remaining characters that seems hard to fake with the effort that is needed to put in, technically fits with Sakurai’s criteria, and wasn’t meant to be shown to everyone on the internet.

> The last 300 pages of people argueing over the background, Incineroar, and insiders with uncertainty.

Seeing how I got the gist of the context of the leak a lot better than people argueing about the other things that seem to throw this out of proportion. I guess this thing seems pretty true, since it actually helped me understand what I was generally feeling the whole time, and this could go with some of the others things.

> The reason why the mural is blurry is because it was small in the Snapchat Snapchat picture. The mural wasn’t the main focus of the snap, but more so the person’s experience.

> Incineroar could’ve been the result of some people getting confused and misinforming. It was based on what people “heard” after all, and with a scope like Smash, false rumors going around that weren’t intentional is a possibility.

A lot of things have pretty simple explanations, Things aren’t that complicated. And this way of thinking is what I carried over into this leak.

 

[Deleted member]

Pretty much. I remember how long it took some people to come around to the idea that Gematsu wasn't fake, just outdated, after everything had come to light.

And again, the simplest answer isn't always the right answer.

If this leak is real, people are gonna act like Verge never had any credibility in the first place.

I personally don't understand why people put so much weight on Verg's credibility in the first place, considering how badly he botched the predictions for DBFZ, I was there during all the speculation for that, AND the DLC. Vergeben's "leaks" were brought up time and again, yet Radditz and Zarbon never showed up. And Android 21 did indeed become playable. And this isn't a case of something that can be brushed aside as "they're delayed for later DLC" when team behind the game is small and strapped for time to meet dedlines. If the characters were finished or planned, they would have launched with the game like Vergeben said they would. Yet, now he's saying they're FOR sure gonna be season 2, alongside SS4 Goku, Jiren, Gogeta, and Ultra Instinct Goku. Despite that most people have caught onto the fact that the DBFZ DLC sets all come with a certain theme attached to them.

I have zero reason to believe a single word Vergeben says.

yes, its who they are that gives them credibility.

it is a chain though because my source has a microsoft source so im getting info down a line of people

I loved your videos dude. Great job. I've watched all the videos from all the big name youtubbers covering the leak, and thus far, you're the only one who's sat down, and properly explained everything in a level-headed way. Everyone else was being so smug about what they knew, but then when it came to their videos, they resorted to personal opinions and tried to pass them off as facts. So far, you're the only one who took the time to separate what they know, and what they think. Thanks for that.

 

[Pyra]

So just so we're on the same page, while I went to go out to get dinner, discussion shifted to the possible bracelet again?

Neat

 

[Fatmanonice]

Wait...why are people arguing they're bracelet?

I thought it was already verified that the company was doing shop like promotional material, like those things you put on the ceiling and some stands.

Because it adds let another log to the fire that, if fake, this is easily the most convoluted hoax in video game history. This is someone with an eye for detail to the point of it being eerie, again, just to trick people on the internet and have noteriety for two weeks tops. Creating all these things and setting everything up like it is would have taken weeks, again, for a prank within an actual company that probably would have cost the leaker his job, maybe even his career in the industry.

 

[Weeman]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

I will sigh in a dissapointed manner and move on with my day.
Also:
"crappy roster"
I don't think anyone has the right to say that anymore.

 

[SlickWylde]

Guys, people like Emily have just as much right as you to express their opinions. And they can chime in whenever they want. They're not demanding your attention. They're just saying stuff that they know SOME of their followers will listen to, probably because they really think it's true (no, I don't think they're shills. That's an even bigger conspiracy than this guy being a faker, which you guys seem to say is almost impossible. The amount of people corroborating and cooperating would be tremendous, considering they're not employed by Nintendo. With the way a lot of you have described it, I think it would be illegal for Nintendo to do some of that stuff).

I totally understand if you disagree with them and something they said, but I think it's REALLY unfair to say stuff like "Emily, you can't just come in here after not contributing anything"-- Yes she can. If you hate that she's saying that, roll your eyes at her, unfollow her on twitter (or just don't look it up since you know you won't like it) and ignore her. Now, if she points to something specific that you have a problem with, feel free to object. But it's unfair to object her being able to even speak on the subject.

 

[Nekoo]

I will sigh in a dissapointed manner and move on with my day.
Also:
"crappy roster"
I don't think anyone has the right to say that anymore.

But muh favorite.

 

[Z25]

Mario Universe before Ultimate:


Mario Universe post Ultimate:
Geno

(No one even start with the "but Yoshi/Wario/DK characters don't count" crap; you will be ignored)

...yeah, I don't think "too many" is the problem for Pokémon, especially when three of the playable Pokémon are considered part of the same component... ()

If anyone argues they aren't the same world they are wrong.

Super mario sluggers literally had almost everyone you posted and more from the dk universe. Which is why it was so damn good and needs a sequel.

I saw a question over in the reddit threat I want to echo in here.

Back during the ERSB leak, were there any "insiders" claiming it was false, or at least not what they heard? Obviously insiders like this were a bit less... publicized back then, but I'm wondering if anyone recalls anything.

From what I remember, many people doubted the leak until video surfaced.

vaanrose might be one of the only ones who didn't because he had managed to discover that was the final roster beforehand. But vaan can give his personal thoughts as he remmebers them better then I would.

 

[doomedtacox]

What are the chances a guy from France is going to have gone to E3?

Not only that, if you believe Eric to be the guy who leaked it himself with no third parties, this is a 50-year-old Frenchman going to E3.

Never said I thought he went to E3.

 

[JacobLeBeauOFFICIAL]

What you guys think about this:

View attachment 172761

http://boards.4chan.org/v/thread/436700621

If people think it's still fake even after this, then it really is just denial

 

[T-Hell]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

No because the roster isn't even remotely close to crappy to begin with.

 

[Pyra]

Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

literally anyone who would do anything remotely like that is probably one of the people who are pretty obviously worthy of being ignored during the conversation tbh

 

[Chrollo.]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

50/50 here but I got Ridley, K Rool, and Dark Samus + Wolf and Snake back so I’m good

 

[Untouch]

So just so we're on the same page, while I went to go out to get dinner, discussion shifted to the possible bracelet again?

Neat

I'm losing my mind with this ****.
We're just teeter-tottering between irrelevant points now.

 

[Deoxys911]

With how popular this leak is, if it's fake it's safe to say Sakurai won't need to bother with another Smash Ballot to know who the community would like to see!

 

[SuperSonicFlyer]

Guys, people like Emily have just as much right as you to express their opinions. And they can chime in whenever they want. They're not demanding your attention. They're just saying stuff that they know SOME of their followers will listen to, probably because they really think it's true (no, I don't think they're shills. That's an even bigger conspiracy than this guy being a faker, which you guys seem to say is almost impossible. The amount of people corroborating and cooperating would be tremendous, considering they're not employed by Nintendo. With the way a lot of you have described it, I think it would be illegal for Nintendo to do some of that stuff).

I totally understand if you disagree with them and something they said, but I think it's REALLY unfair to say stuff like "Emily, you can't just come in here after not contributing anything"-- Yes she can. If you hate that she's saying that, roll your eyes at her, unfollow her on twitter (or just don't look it up since you know you won't like it) and ignore her. Now, if she points to something specific that you have a problem with, feel free to object. But it's unfair to object her being able to even speak on the subject.

Glad that wasn't me who said that. Whatever she got wrong, she still has the same rights we do, all in the end. Why should it be us to take away those rights from her when we basically can't in the first place?

 

[SushiRoll]

70/30 here at the moment:

Nope! I think the roster as it is now is the best roster we've had in gaming history. This is like... the extra whipped cream on a really good waffle if real.(odd metaphor I know)

No, perfectly normal. An odd metaphor would be saying something like 'extra sauerkraut on my birthday cake'.

 

[ekc]

For people that believe the Grinch leak is 95%+ likely to happen, please tell me what will be your reaction if all we end up getting is Incineroar and Ken? Will you go ballistic and flame Sakurai for having a crappy roster?

This game literally has an undeniably great roster, there's no way it can ever be bad to me. Now if Banjo or the Grinch leak altogether got confirmed, it'd probably be my favorite game of all time.

 

[Zinith]

>Obsession with Yoshi and now claims Salazzle of all Pokemon is his favorite Gen 7 pokemon

Ok now I'm convinced you're a scaly

I've only, oh I don't know... openly admitted that I was one for a while now

 

[Deleted member]

Hmmmm let’s see.

> Someone who works at a marketing company is apparently mad at his/her job and decided to put it on their Snapchat story. The picture had a completed mural with the remaining characters that seems hard to fake with the effort that is needed to put in, technically fits with Sakurai’s criteria, and wasn’t meant to be shown to everyone on the internet.

> The last 300 pages of people argueing over the background, Incineroar, and insiders with uncertainty.

Seeing how I got the gist of the context of the leak a lot better than people argueing about the other things that seem to throw this out of proportion. I guess this thing seems really right, and this could go with some of the others things.

> The reason why the mural is blurry is because it was a small part of a Snapchat picture. The mural wasn’t the main focus, but more so the person’s experience, and the mural is pretty small in the snap itself.

> Incineroar could’ve been the result of some people getting confused and misinforming. It was based on what people “heard” after all, and with a scope like Smash, false rumors going around that weren’t intentional is a possibility.

A lot of things have pretty simple explanations, Things aren’t that complicated. And this way of thinking is what I carried over into this leak.

That's what I've been saying from the very start, yet people still keep going in circles with the exact same points. Personally, I'm more interested in knowing why the leakers all have false info, as there's not a single doubt in my mind at this point the leak is legit.

 

[Graizen]

Here with more exposition, you can see the Logo

 

[Fenriraga]

The very convenient link posted on the previous page proves you wrong.
I count 3 which are incorrect, a few unproven and all of the rest are correct.

Mmmm. Fair enough I guess. Can't really argue that after looking through it. Can't really say it's fair for me to claim Verge is credible and just disregard that entirely. I remember SOMETHING about her reputation that isn't great, but since I can't remember exactly that's all I can really say.

I swear I know the Weiss emote is your calling card but it makes everything you say come off like ten times more condescending. Which is befitting to the character I guess. :V