Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Robertman2]

I'd rather be called an otaku than a weeaboo. Is otaku a dead term or something? Is it not cool with the kids anymore? lol

It's makes you look like culturally insensitive moron to label yourself an otaku

 

[AugustusB]

The blog has FINALLY been posted.

Finally! I was getting kind of worried for whatever reason. Like they replaced Intern-Kun or something.

 

[Pyra]

How many hours till it's morning in Japan?

It's 12:16 PM in Japan.

 

[Blade of Evil's Bane]

View attachment 169032
We were so happy about the death of music theory just a moment ago, now it's just the usual...

Nice 'sad Ridley' btw, i'm guessing you drew it? This looks like your artstyle.

 

[PsySmasher]

Considering we're talking Shadow anyway, where do you guys stand on him? Would you think he'd be a better echo, newcomer, semi-clone, or just left out altogether?

I would prefer if he was a semi-clone.

But I fully expect him to be an echo.
If they can make into an echo, they can make Shadow one too.

 

[Untouch]

How many hours till it's morning in Japan?

It is Noon in Japan at the moment.
If you're wondering about a direct announcement, they're normally posted at 9am or 10am EST. I wouldn't count on anything though.

 

[KMDP]

I'd rather be called an otaku than a weeaboo. Is otaku a dead term or something? Is it not cool with the kids anymore? lol

Well... hmm... I don't think the term Otaku as a loan word was even alive to begin with...

"Otaku" just means "Super Fan" anyway (not literally, but it's what it generally translates to), so it's not like we needed to borrow the term.
---
Anyway, is it just me, or is today's "Id (Purpose)" just straight up ripped from Fire Emblem Awakening?

 

[Ring-a-Sheep]

My ridiculous brand of speculation allows me to get the more bizarre things correct because I don't buy a lot of people's theories most of the time.

It's okay to let go. It's okay to set yourself free.

I second this, its far more fun to just not care about reasonable expectations and go wild with it, its even more fun when you know not to be salty.

 

[amazonevan19]

How many hours till it's morning in Japan?

it's 12 noon there atm

 

[SonicMario]

Considering we're talking Shadow anyway, where do you guys stand on him? Would you think he'd be a better echo, newcomer, semi-clone, or just left out altogether?

If he's gotta be in, I'm hoping echo. It just makes way more sense with what we've got on echoes thus far

And there are better options for a Sonic semi-clone that are still possible (A certain two-tailed fox)

 

[Kuon]

It's makes you look like culturally insensitive moron to label yourself an otaku

Well... I guess that's one way to put it

 

[Pyra]

Considering we're talking Shadow anyway, where do you guys stand on him?

On his head. He doesn't like it much though.

I think he would be a fun addition echo or not.

 

[Noipoi]

Nice 'sad Ridley' btw, i'm guessing you drew it? This looks like your artstyle.

I absolutely drew it. It's part of a comic I made where Mario captures Ridley and does nice things in his body, and when Ridley founds out he gets really depressed.
I'll post it if you want.

 

[Arcad5]

If he's gotta be in, I'm hoping echo. It just makes way more sense with what we've got on echoes thus far

And there are better options for a Sonic semi-clone that are still possible (A certain two-tailed fox)

I would love if it if we got both Tails and Shadow. I don't feel it will happen, but hey, I can always dream about DLC.

 

[Potato_]

View attachment 169032
We were so happy about the death of music theory just a moment ago, now it's just the usual...

Slightly off topic but your Ridley drawings amuse me so much.

HE LOOKS SO DONE

 

[Idon]

Honestly, my eternal unending cynicism and doubt comes from expecting this:

Spoiler: SMTxFE

And getting this:

Spoiler: TMS#FE

I've went from "What's the worst that can happen?" to "The worst is probably gonna happen." and I've yet to change my mindset on having expectations. They can't disappoint me if I'm already disappointed in them.

 

[Blade of Evil's Bane]

I absolutely drew it. It's part of a comic I made where Mario captures Ridley and does nice things in his body, and when Ridley founds out he gets really depressed.

Daaaaamn! Are you willing to share the comic? I would love to see it.

 

[Enchess]

It's obviously subjective, but strong explanation for Box, weak for Blog? What? The whole problem about Box Theory is it's a pattern WITHOUT A REASON. Every time I ask people why they did an illogical 9 character pattern for 6 rows, causing discontinuities--they're like "I dunno." The explanation seems to be that they either took the effort to censor but didn't realize it would reveal the roster, or intentionally left clues in the negative spaces. Neither of which is a good explanation. Still could be true, but the biggest problem with Box Theory is that all it has is a "weird pattern", with little to no explanation.

Blog Theory is simple. We know the blog was planned out, given the rearrangement that happened after the delay, so it makes sense to plan the blog out to spread evenly. That doesn't mean it's true, and as for #3 the average has lowered, so the primary assumption of the blog theory is directly being contradicted. But to say box theory has a more logical explanation--what?

There's a reason it's the one place I put an "imo". I knew it'd be controversial haha.

My issue with blog theory is the weeks with 2 or 4 characters (more inconsistent than the single different row in box) and the fact that the theory needs an end date and I'm not convinced release date makes sense. Final reveal makes more sense to me, which could lower the number of weeks quite a bit.

Basically it's not that the reason behind the pacing isn't logical, it's that two different reasonings lead to the same actions we've observed so far, but they offer different predictions. Whether this is a problem with logical explanation or prediction ability is a perspective question. I see it as a explanation problem personally.

Although if you just argue blog theory as maximum this isn't an issue at all. I don't think blog theory is terribly useful as a predictor if you are only using it as a maximum, especially a maximum that is higher than most people's guesses when trying to be realistic anyway.

 

[KMDP]

It's makes you look like culturally insensitive moron to label yourself an otaku

Gee, it's almost like other cultures use loan words even when they're not using them correctly.

It's not like English speakers are the only ones who do this, because every culture who regularly interacts with other cultures do it too.

Do you know what "celeb" means in Japanese? "female who is high-class, rich, etc"

It's not 100% right, but it's just like westerners who use "otaku" to mean a neutral "super-fan" instead of the derogatory "obsessive fan".

 

[Idon]

I absolutely drew it. It's part of a comic I made where Mario captures Ridley and does nice things in his body, and when Ridley founds out he gets really depressed.
I'll post it if you want.

Oh man for a second, I thought you were talking about vore.

Then I remembered Mario can possess people. Phew.

 

[PsySmasher]

Anyway, is it just me, or is today's "Id (Purpose)" just straight up ripped from Fire Emblem Awakening?

Actually.... yeah. I'm not the biggest expert on FE music (or FE in general) but it seems like the original version.

And if that is the case, this is not the first time we've heard this song in Ultimate:

Remember this:

 

[Noipoi]

Daaaaamn! Are you willing to share the comic? I would love to see it.

Sure thing.
The pictures are kinda big so i'll spoiler it.

Spoiler: Ridley Comic

 

[SonicMario]

I would love if it if we got both Tails and Shadow. I don't feel it will happen, but hey, I can always dream about DLC.

I do think it's possible. One or both may have to wait until DLC though.

 

[Idon]

Well... hmm... I don't think the term Otaku as a loan word was even alive to begin with...

"Otaku" just means "Super Fan" anyway (not literally, but it's what it generally translates to), so it's not like we needed to borrow the term.
---
Anyway, is it just me, or is today's "Id (Purpose)" just straight up ripped from Fire Emblem Awakening?

It's... slightly faster. And has sooooome parts added and cut out.
I think.

 

[Kuon]

Gee, it's almost like other cultures use loan words even when they're not using them correctly.

It's not like English speakers are the only ones who do this, because every culture who regularly interacts with other cultures do it too.

Do you know what "celeb" means in Japanese? "female who is high-class, rich, etc"

It's not 100% right, but it's just like westerners who use "otaku" to mean a neutral "super-fan" instead of the derogatory "obsessive fan".

Thank you. I had no idea that calling myself an otaku meant that I'm a culturally insensitive moron. I only meant that I like anime. That's all.

 

[Zinith]

Oh man for a second, I thought you were talking about vore.

Then I remembered Mario can possess people. Phew.

Mario characters tend to have that reaction

 

[SigmaMewtwo]

PREACH

These people don't know yet. Wait until the Switch port comes out on Friday, then you'll ALL want Neku.

The World Ends With You is one of my favorite DS games, and I'm looking forward to revisiting it with Final Remix on Friday. I'd wholeheartedly welcome Neku into Smash, as he's one of my most wanted SE characters. Plus, the music has always been top notch, I'd hope we could get a majority of the songs if he made it in.

This version of Give Me All Your Love is one I wasn't aware of before today, but I'd really hope this would make it into Ultimate if Neku makes it:

 

[Idon]

Mario characters tend to have that reaction

Actually, as a fan of Yoshi, I think you've already seen your fair share.

 

[TMNTSSB4]

Considering we're talking Shadow anyway, where do you guys stand on him? Would you think he'd be a better echo, newcomer, semi-clone, or just left out altogether?

Make him playable in any capacity

 

[TyrantLizardKing]

Honestly, my eternal unending cynicism and doubt comes from expecting this:

Spoiler: SMTxFE

View attachment 169034

And getting this:

Spoiler: TMS#FE

View attachment 169035

I've went from "What's the worst that can happen?" to "The worst is probably gonna happen." and I've yet to change my mindset on having expectations. They can't disappoint me if I'm already disappointed in them.

Dang why’d you have to reopen an old wound like that...

 

[Idon]

Oh yes, Neku is my pipe dream SE character.

Just give me 3 minutes to convince you to play the game.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Well, as someone who worked on some research projects, I think you are mistaken about what evidence is or isn't. Evidence doesn't have to prove anything. It need only suggest. Even in science, it's more accurate to say theories are shown to be consistent predictors than to say they've been proven irrefutably. You can ALWAYS think of an arbitrary law of physics to satisfy all of our observations while making entirely different predictions. And it is technically possible that every law of physics we know could be false. That doesn't mean we should abandon them for being unproven.

Let me go over what I consider evidence for box theory:

Spoiler: Box theory evidence

-the pattern is clear, and almost entirely consistent. You can argue that the other side is a different pattern, but how realistic is that really? That would imply it's pure coincidence that so many characters fell perfectly in blog order on the visible side. It's possible, but it's also technically possible that Ridley will be cut from Smash because Sakurai changed his mind again.
- the pattern breaks in exactly one spot, which suggests an echo, most likely Ken. This also lines up really nicely with both Verg, who has a track record, and the Ken image leak that last I saw was widely agreed to be real. If we get any confirmation of Ken, that's a prediction box theory made that came true. Really, there aren't many possibilities here, even with the minimum assumption of the unshown characters are on the other side. We have (1) Ken is there suggesting artist knows roster, (2) artist only layed out one side and miscounted on the pattern they were going for, (3) there's a blank spot on the other side for seemingly no reason, (4) the pattern one the visible side is coincidence, which is statistically impossible (which is not the same as actually impossible)
-the bottom row of the visible side is not centered. This creates ugly asymmetry. It's also worth noting that Smash in particular has a fondness for keeping things centered as @Shroob has pointing out repeatedly in unrelated debates.
-marketing departments often know secrets of a game early, even before the programmers at the same company, even on the same game. This isn't speculation. I work in game industry. Im going off a combination of my experience and being told by other workers in the industry.

When I take that together, I see a pattern that is statistically impossible to be an accident, so I conclude it is likely intentional. From there, I can conclude the backside is missing a spot in a specific row, indicating either an echo, a mistake, or imo ugly design that's inconsistent with the rest of Smash. I dismiss the ugly design due to inconsistency, so I'm left with a mistake or echo. Now, one of the possible echoes for that spot is Ken, who has a prominent leaker and photo leak supporting this. But it's also worth remembering it doesn't have to be Ken. Basically if Ken is deconfirmed, it takes away evidence for the box, but doesn't provide any evidence against it because the theory does not require Ken, even if Ken supports it.

But here's the thing, if the artist didn't just make a mistake (a possibility I'm not dismissing at all), that means the artist does know at least some of the roster before us and incoorporated this into the box design. Handily, this explains every single blank space on the box and makes the box prettier (subjective) and more symmetrical and inline with normal Smash design (objective).

Thus, I conclude the box is worth using as a predictor. Not putting my faith in it completely. Simply being open to the possibility.

While it's true evidence never "proves" anything, as that level of certainty is left to Mathematics (and erroneously in a court of law), the problem is everybody has a different standard of evidence. It's why science is effective--everybody, mostly, agrees on the standard of evidence (e.g., observable, falsifiable), not so clear cut in everyday life, and especially in speculation. To me the only "evidence" is what is said by Sakurai and shown in official material, or the Ken leak, but that is less certain in an age of photoshop (I actually believe the leak to be likely real, though). Everything outside of that is opinion and speculation. Which is fine! But what is presented are patterns (and as I mentioned, they aren't consistent), assumptions and inferences. Which is what speculation is about. I just have a higher standard of evidence than everybody else.

There's a reason it's the one place I put an "imo". I knew it'd be controversial haha.

My issue with blog theory is the weeks with 2 or 4 characters (more inconsistent than the single different row in box) and the fact that the theory needs an end date and I'm not convinced release date makes sense. Final reveal makes more sense to me, which could lower the number of weeks quite a bit.

Basically it's not that the reason behind the pacing isn't logical, it's that two different reasonings lead to the same actions we've observed so far, but they offer different predictions. Whether this is a problem with logical explanation or prediction ability is a perspective question. I see it as a explanation problem personally.

Although if you just argue blog theory as maximum this isn't an issue at all. I don't think blog theory is terribly useful as a predictor if you are only using it as a maximum, especially a maximum that is higher than most people's guesses when trying to be realistic anyway.

I didn't notice the imo haha While it should go without saying, everyone has the right to their own opinion.

My issue is that blog theory is often misunderstood, because of that annoying Reddit post and Alax's video. They make it more complicated than it needs to be. It's about the *average* posts per week, not exactly 3 a week, so it doesn't matter if there's 4 or 2 posts per week some time so long as they balance each other in the average. That being said, because we've now had 3 weeks of 2 character posts, the average has been going down (as I mentioned). And I've always said that it's a maximum, but again, because of the Reddit post/video people took it way more than blog theory was supposed to say. All it said was that it's "reasonable" we could get 7-8 characters, given those simple assumptions. I'm now thinking we will *not* be getting the maximum, given Sakurai's statements, the blog slowing down, and presumably now little time for multiple announcements.

 

[Blade of Evil's Bane]

Sure thing.
The pictures are kinda big so i'll spoiler it.

Spoiler: Ridley Comic

View attachment 169036
View attachment 169037
View attachment 169038
View attachment 169039
View attachment 169040
View attachment 169041
View attachment 169044

Really nice Thx! You should post your work more often, this could help people go through rough drought times.

 

[KMDP]

Thank you. I had no idea that calling myself an otaku meant that I'm a culturally insensitive moron. I only meant that I like anime. That's all.

Just like with pretty much all instances of "cultural appropriation", I'm pretty sure actual Japanese people don't really care that westerners use the word Otaku wrong.

At worst, you might get a raised eyebrow because you're willingly referring to yourself using a derogatory term, that's it.

 

[Mutsukki]

Anyway, is it just me, or is today's "Id (Purpose)" just straight up ripped from Fire Emblem Awakening?

It's not. They wouldn't update the website with a rip of a song that was already in Smash 4.

Also the opening is part of the remix and the way the vocals kick in way earlier is not like that in the original too.

That said, it's very close to the original

 

[Deleted member]

We've been trapped in this endless loop of theories, fake leaks, and salt for what feels like a decade.

We're basically in The White Ending from SMT IV at this point.

 

[KMDP]

Sure thing.
The pictures are kinda big so i'll spoiler it.

Spoiler: Ridley Comic

View attachment 169036
View attachment 169037
View attachment 169038
View attachment 169039
View attachment 169040
View attachment 169041
View attachment 169044

I actually think Ridley would be stoked to have Mario do good deeds in his name.

Because that gives him more chances to exploit people's gratitude for murder and/or administering mental scars.

 

[Noipoi]

Really nice Thx! You should post your work more often, this could help people go through rough drought times.

No problem. I just draw the funny crap that pops in my head, i'm glad people like it.

 

[Enchess]

While it's true evidence never "proves" anything, as that level of certainty is left to Mathematics (and erroneously in a court of law), the problem is everybody has a different standard of evidence. It's why science is effective--everybody, mostly, agrees on the standard of evidence (e.g., observable, falsifiable), not so clear cut in everyday life, and especially in speculation. To me the only "evidence" is what is said by Sakurai and shown in official material, or the Ken leak, but that is less certain in an age of photoshop (I actually believe the leak to be likely real, though). Everything outside of that is opinion and speculation. Which is fine! But what is presented are patterns (and as I mentioned, they aren't consistent), assumptions and inferences. Which is what speculation is about. I just have a higher standard of evidence than everybody else.



I didn't notice the imo haha While it should go without saying, everyone has the right to their own opinion.

My issue is that blog theory is often misunderstood, because of that annoying Reddit post and Alax's video. They make it more complicated than it needs to be. It's about the *average* posts per week, not exactly 3 a week, so it doesn't matter if there's 4 or 2 posts per week some time so long as they balance each other in the average. That being said, because we've now had 3 weeks of 2 character posts, the average has been going down (as I mentioned). And I've always said that it's a maximum, but again, because of the Reddit post/video people took it way more than blog theory was supposed to say. All it said was that it's "reasonable" we could get 7-8 characters, given those simple assumptions. I'm now thinking we will *not* be getting the maximum, given Sakurai's statements, the blog slowing down, and presumably now little time for multiple announcements.

Fair enough. I think patterns still qualify as evidence, although I acknowledge they aren't strong enough to bet money on or anything. But strong enough for internet speculation to me.

I actually do think the rate of character blog posts is intentional and (mostly) consistent. It's just not as consistent as it could be and without an end date it doesn't let me predict anything. That's why I dismiss it as a useful predictor. It fails 1 of my criteria (as I said, which one depends on perspective)

 

[Ring-a-Sheep]

I actually think Ridley would be stoked to have Mario do good deeds in his name.

Because that gives him more chances to exploit people's gratitude for murder and/or administering mental scars.

Ridley gets meaner nicer everyday