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Friendly reminder, useful predictors (using as blanket term for theories and leaks) have some features:
1 - They follow a clear pattern (with leaks the pattern is "the characters ___ said", so true by default on leaks)
2 - They have a logical explanation for why the pattern might be intentional (trivially true for leaks, strongly true for box and music theory, imo weakly true for blog theory)
3 - They make predictions that can later be used as evidence for/against them (was true for music, got killed by it. There's a problem here for blog. Too much wiggle room to the point you can't tell if pattern holds)
The strongest predictors are those that are strongest in these categories. #1 is a huge issue for almost every "similar" theory people brought up to discredit box or music theories, which is why box/music theorists feel like opponents are being willfully dense sometimes.
#2 for leakers, despite being trivially true, is much much stronger for leakers who can explain logically how they obtained info. More believable the explanation, the stronger the leak is as a predictor. For theories, #2 is another crucial difference between music/blog/box theories and strawmen theories. Sure, there are other patterns people can find, but unless you can provide solid reasoning for why they are intentional like music/blog/box, you are just proving you don't understand music/blog/box by using those as counters.
#3 is obviously the reason Verg is by far the strongest predictor so far. We have gotten results using him as a predictor. This so far is a to be seen on box/blog. For music, it was actually a strong point in favor, especially with the delay on Isabelle's music. The theory predicted strong coupling between music and reveals and that delay showed that the two are almost certainly not decoupled, even if Music Theory is deconfirmed. Ironically, the strongest of these three aspects of predictors for Music Theory became it's weakest aspect, so much so that's it's completely sunk at this point.
TL;DR - please keep in mind that music/blog/box theories aren't just arbitrary patterns and (up till now for music) they actually had merit in other categories in which we can judge predictors.
It's obviously subjective, but strong explanation for Box, weak for Blog? What? The whole problem about Box Theory is it's a pattern WITHOUT A REASON. Every time I ask people why they did an illogical 9 character pattern for 6 rows, causing discontinuities--they're like "I dunno." The explanation seems to be that they either took the effort to censor but didn't realize it would reveal the roster, or intentionally left clues in the negative spaces. Neither of which is a good explanation. Still could be true, but the biggest problem with Box Theory is that all it has is a "weird pattern", with little to no explanation.
Blog Theory is simple. We know the blog was planned out, given the rearrangement that happened after the delay, so it makes sense to plan the blog out to spread evenly. That doesn't mean it's true, and as for #3 the average has lowered, so the primary assumption of the blog theory is directly being contradicted. But to say box theory has a more logical explanation--what?
Yeesh, I think I'm gonna call it for a while. This FE nonsense has nastiness going on on both sides, and it's really disappointing to see some are actually insulting people's intelligence for not liking the things they like.
If you like FE, cool. If you don't also cool. Why jump at each other's throats for personal taste in a video game of all things?
I was joking. It was a joke.
Though I do think the series has "the right" level of fanservice for something like that anyway.
It's mostly cheeky. Some outfits are functionally skimpy, but skimpy nonetheless.
They play it straight as hell using Mineta, which I think is a pretty great move.
It's different to me than shows that are just like... "look at my **** all the time please my eyes are down here lol -boing-"
How is this related to Smash Bros?
Well, as everyone knows, I am a huge proponent of DLC cosmetics. In this paper, I will--
I want Geno because he's rad, and to see another character like K Rool who's basically been kept alive because of Smash speculation finally get in would be awesome.
I was joking. It was a joke.
Though I do think the anime has "the right" level of fanservice for something like that anyway.
It's mostly cheeky. Some outfits are functionally skimpy, but skimpy nonetheless.
They play it straight as hell using Mineta, which I think is a pretty great move.
It's different to me than shows that are just like... "look at my **** all the time please my eyes are down here lol -boing-"
How is this related to Smash Bros?
Well, as everyone knows, I am a huge proponent of DLC cosmetics. In this paper, I will--
Drop the Fire Emblem debate. This is just getting into flaming territory.
Also, please respect other people's opinions. That includes not trying to rile up others with clearly exaggerated hatred towards a series. You don't have to like a series. Don't try and start an argument over it, however.
Doesn't change the fact that the music we got tonight was a remix of a song we already have like what, three versions of in Smash already? I'd say the same thing if it was another damn Jungle Hijinxs remix
Even ignoring the fact it's Fire Emblem, I'm not a big fan of the song in the first place.
If you saw my post on qualities of useful predictors, the issue with that is the adjusted theory no longer makes predictions on what is in the game, only what's in the blog. Only the willingly blind music theory detractors denied that we'll get a remix with unique newcomers and said it was pure coincidence. Of course we will likely get a song with each unique newcomer. But if we can get multiple songs per franchise on the blog, we can no longer use this to predict game content.
That's what I pointed out in my post. We can't narrow down the characters anymore since the "one track per franchise" theory was shot down.
Doesn't mean the entire basis of the Music Theory was wrong though. You can't laugh and point fingers at people who believed it and yell "Fake!" when the basic idea of unique newcomers getting tracks to tie in with their reveal is a theory that's still very much alive and well.
In other words, despite what most people are saying, the Music Theory can still be true. We likely can't use it to predict anyone now, but it's far from dead.
She's not even 18 lol but I'm sure stating that an underage character wearing a skimpy outfit like that is creepy AF will cause some sort of discourse so whatever
I also enjoy MHA. Need to catch up on it. But let's not act like MHA fans are somehow more "holy" then the Degenerate Fire Emblem Fools
She doesn't have to be 18 in Japan, since it's 13 in Japan, and since MHA was made in Japan that means she's not underage in Japan and therefore makes the skimpy outfit okay (in Japan, of course, not in some other countries). Also, what's wrong with FE fans? What makes a FE fan a degenerate fool?
Doesn't change the fact that the music we got tonight was a remix of a song we already have like what, three versions of in Smash already? I'd say the same thing if it was another damn Jungle Hijinxs remix
Even ignoring the fact it's Fire Emblem, I'm not a big fan of the song in the first place.
Doesn't change the fact that the music we got tonight was a remix of a song we already have like what, three versions of in Smash already? I'd say the same thing if it was another damn Jungle Hijinxs remix
Even ignoring the fact it's Fire Emblem, I'm not a big fan of the song in the first place.
But people like Niboc.Rock put out really nice looking Shadows with the lift of a finger. Pretty easy to fake. Especially since that's definitely a CG model and not in game.
She's not even 18 lol but I'm sure stating that an underage character wearing a skimpy outfit like that is creepy AF will cause some sort of discourse so whatever
I also enjoy MHA. Need to catch up on it. But let's not act like MHA fans are somehow more "holy" then the Degenerate Fire Emblem Fools
Guess I wasn't clear enough. Knock it off with the series' bashing. This only creates tons of turmoil and pointless fighting. Criticism is fine, but not when you're trying to bait others into an unreasonable argument.
Likewise, let's drop the MHA talk when it's clearly meant to incite bad responses. It's off-topic as well.
Here's a novel idea: There is no accurate prediction method possible because Sakurai just wants to show off content on its own merits unrelated to characters.
He considers Assist Trophies on the same level as playable characters.
I'm in the minority, but I would personally prefer they take all the time they would normally take adding more characters to the roster, to things where I don't feel obligated to buy in order to "complete the game" as it were.
Stages and characters are things that I will buy, just so I can have the full set of either because it is gameplay altering.
With cosmetics, they're just fun things that have a ton of potential that you don't have to buy to still be able to play the same game (completely) as everyone else who has.
It's rather unlikely. The characters will probably generate more money, if even just for the reason I mentioned.
But gimme my seasonal costume packs sakurai
I'm in the minority, but I would personally prefer they take all the time they would normally take adding more characters to the roster, to things where I don't feel obligated to buy in order to "complete the game" as it were.
Stages and characters are things that I will buy, just so I can have the full set of either because it is gameplay altering.
With cosmetics, they're just fun things that have a ton of potential that you don't have to buy to still be able to play the same game (completely) as everyone else who has.
It's rather unlikely. The characters will probably generate more money, if even just for the reason I mentioned.
But gimme my seasonal costume packs sakurai
Calling someone otaku would be an actual insult though, considering the translation means, roughly, "idle layabout" or someone who spends all their time watching anime/playing games.
As an anime fan who works two jobs to support his family, I would be legitimately offended to be called an otaku.
Geno. Sora could be DLC, and I know people would buy that. Geno, however, is a complete fan pick who even Sakurai wants. If K. Rool is base, so is Geno.
Here's a novel idea: There is no accurate prediction method possible because Sakurai just wants to show off content on its own merits unrelated to characters.
He considers Assist Trophies on the same level as playable characters.
All this talk of theories this, theories being dead. Sakurai Theory--our fan theories are meaningless because Sakurai does whatever the **** he wants--is still alive and kicking. He's at his best when he's the most unpredictable.
(doesn't stop me from joining in the fun with my own POV)
But people like Niboc.Rock put out really nice looking Shadows with the lift of a finger. Pretty easy to fake. Especially since that's definitely a CG model and not in game.
Calling someone otaku would be an actual insult though, considering the translation means, roughly, "idle layabout" or someone who spends all their time watching anime/playing games.
As an anime fan who works two jobs to support his family, I would be legitimately offended to be called an otaku.
