Part of what I mean by disguised is that they add some characters they want + some common guesses/prediction. Also I doesn't follow the youtube based seculation community.
Captain Toad is absolutely on on lists because people want him. There really isn't a stong case for him being in. people that are predicting him either want him (in at least subtle ways), or were basing their prediction on other peoples.
And Spring Man & Rex was not too bad guesses outside the timing. But yes these were the typical "safe" guesses to makes their predictions more realistic.
I tend to be a bit guilty of this myself — my four most wanted in
Smash (Bomberman, Krystal, Bowser Jr., and Vaati) have always been consistent. Personally, what makes me want a character is typically their potential to fill a vacant niche in the roster, though how much I personally like the character does play a part (mainly for Bomberman and Dragonite). I largely started taking an interest in Ridley, K. Rool, Lip, Isaac, Geno, Banjo, Bandanna Dee, Captain Toad, and Shantae being included in
Smash from seeing their supportive fanbases, though I checked out what each of those characters could bring to
Smash before fully supporting them (and I was already quite familiar with most of them, which helped). There are some popular characters who I refuse to support, though I won't particularly begrudge them getting in (well,
maybe I won't); namely Skull Kid, who will be the second coming of Wolf IMO and TBFO one of my most wanteds (but I can't really be
salty about Skull Kid overshadowing Vaati because Skull Kid genuinely deserves it, considering that
Majora's Mask has been such a grand success), and I can't really see Lloyd Irving bringing anything distinct to the roster besides double swords, which isn't nearly as cool as the monster-summoning gimmick of his successors Emil and Marta.
I guess what I'm trying to say is, I'm not immune to the bandwagoning you speak of. I've been there. But the bandwagon effect is never, ever my only reason for supporting a character. And I'm not interested in "being right", I'm interested in sharing in the joy of interesting characters' devoted fans.