Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Shroob]

Online you say?
What character could benefit from Nintendo's online serv-- oh, oh no.

Nah, they wouldn't give someone like Steve out. He'd be paid because Microsoft would want to royalties.

 

[Sharkarat]

But seriously there isn't enough discussion around what type of speculators there are in the smash fanbase. But I would say there's two main categories, Wishers and Predicters.
Wisher

Goal: Getting their character(s) in smash​

probalbly the most common, but is mostly people just wanting, speculating and showing support for their favorite characters.

Also a sub-group of Anti-wisher who actively doesn't want spesific character.​

Predicter

Goal: Prediction/Knowing the final roster​

This type is less common (but not uncommon, especially on Smashboards). This is group of speculator is one that focus more on knowing the final roster than necessarily wanting it. most are still biased toward one ore more character still.

But these groups doesn't really interact that well on some topics

• Box Theory: Predicters likes it and similar reasonable theories because it get them closer to the roster. wishers doesn't because it removes/decreases their character(s) likehood.
• "Credible" leaks: These are some of the biggest source of information during speculation so predicters love them. Wisher mostly only care if it includes their character. While Anti-wishers can get pretty mad about it.

It's just about a difference in mindset. When Predicters calls characters unlikely it's mostly because they actually believe that, even if they actively want that character. While anti-wishers use it as a way to show their dislike.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

How did you calculate that? Between June and August there were 8 characters. Which is why I (had) thought 8 characters between September and November was reasonable, until Sakurai's slowing down comment. It's difficult, because the number will change depending on the precise time frame you use, but I feel like that's the most natural way to do it.

We had 9 newcomers in 3 months and half, before Sakurai said that thing about slowing down.
9/3.5 = 2.5 to 2.6 (rounded)
the calculation is not precise but it's not like it matters (I mean, it's just a speculation theory), we had roughly 5 characters in 2 months.

 

[lightdrago]

So Steve is looking more likely by the day, huh? That’s cool, so I hope this comes to pass.

About that new Switch... I’m no businessman, but is that really the best move on Nintendo’s part, considering how new the switch is? How fast did the DSi or 3DSXL come out when compared to their predecessors?

 

[ThatOneAnon]

.....

You have the wrong idea entirely.

I'm not talking about morals or ethics or honor.

I'm trying to keep my expectations in check and my expectations say that we'll be waiting ages for new characters because waiting is a thing that sucks and brings us all closer to death.

It hurts to be called naive and optimistic when I'm trying to keep my hype in check. Like people calling you vain for working out at the gym when the doctor told you need to get healthy or you'll die.

You do realize actively hoping for DLC announcements prior to the game’s release makes you sound like a giant drone and a doing-it-for-free shill, right?
If this were any other game, people would be ****ing thrashing you for even entertaining the idea of content being withheld (because in the end, that’s what DLC actually is). And I know you’re saying it won’t be, but you’re also saying it’d be a good thing if it were.

 

[Thinkaman]

How can we assume that it was a "near" final asset? That's the whole crux of the Box Theory, and why it's assumptions are questionable. And I've never heard of the claim from box theorists that they were censoring the images--just that they "mistakenly" didn't take into consideration the layout would give the roster away. That last claim is still hard to believe, as if they knew the roster, they'd obviously tell by the negative space they should probably reconsider something. But, still possible I guess.

I don't think, however, that they would intentionally censor the box only to not consider that would give the roster away. It's like the claim that Spirits mode is actually called Spirits, and not a placeholder, despite any reasonable person would know people could potentially unblur images. A placeholder easily prevents any potential for leaks. Smash has made some mistakes and accidentally revealed things, but a lot of these assumptions make those marketing Smash seem like complete morons in comparison. The previous examples are cases where they weren't aware of something they needed to hide. All of these arguments for Box Theory assumes they know what to hide, and still couldn't do it.

Frankly, I have no idea what any of this meant.

It's not complicated.

• There's a box, it shows all the characters, or at least through Isabelle and the character after her.
• They need to put an image of the box on storefronts, but Isabelle and the other character haven't been revealed yet.
• They just save and upload a "censored" version without those two characters.

Like, what's the conflict or confusion here?

 

[Sharkarat]

I have no problem with people lowering their expectations, but I ask to double check so I can keep my expectations in check. There's lowering expectations, and then there's lowering them. People seem to think the latter is less harmful than too high expectations--except, if they're too low, they'll be less excited when surprised than had you had higher expectations ("Few" instead of "Yay"). I know given recent events, if Banjo is revealed I'd be more relieved than ecstatic, the latter being more ideal. But everybody's different, and should keep their expectations for what's right for their personal psychology.

Everyone is different, but i'm personally more excited about my unlikely wants getting in than my likely ones, so for me low expectations works well.

 

[CosmicQuark]

Frankly, I have no idea what any of this meant.

It's not complicated.

• There's a box, it shows all the characters, or at least through Isabelle and the character after her.
• They need to put an image of the box on storefronts, but Isabelle and the other character haven't been revealed yet.
• They just save and upload a "censored" version without those two characters.

Like, what's the conflict or confusion here?

The conflict is why would they do that, if they knew people could guess the full roster. If it was a mistake, like most people say, I still don't believe they wouldn't notice it would imply only 72 characters, but possible. But if they were deliberately censoring it, they were trying to be careful--and yet still didn't realize they'd give the number 72 up.

The simplest explanation is they threw up a mock up to give an idea of what the box would look like, and the final design could look different. I'll admit there are some weird things, but they're weird for both sides--the negative space and weird pattern.

 

[Zinith]

Everyone is different, but i'm personally more excited about my unlikely wants getting in than my likely ones, so for me low expectations works well.

Thought this would never be said...

 

[Nekoo]

The conflict is why would they do that, if they knew people could guess the full roster. If it was a mistake, like most people say, I still don't believe they wouldn't notice it would imply only 72 characters, but possible. But if they were deliberately censoring it, they were trying to be careful--and yet still didn't realize they'd give the number 72 up.

The simplest explanation is they threw up a mock up to give an idea of what the box would look like, and the final design could look different. I'll admit there are some weird things, but they're weird for both sides--the negative space and weird pattern.

I don't think they care about the number of Characters to get leaked since we always knew we would get "just a few" however their identity is important

 

[Crap-Zapper]

Everyone is different, but i'm personally more excited about my unlikely wants getting in than my likely ones, so for me low expectations works well.

That's for sure. In an alternative universe maybe ...

 

[Sharkarat]

Also was always the second most predicactable newcomer (after Inkling), and that was before echoes were introduced.

 

[CosmicQuark]

I don't think they care about the number of Characters to get leaked since we always knew we would get "just a few" however their identity is important

I was just using that as an example, since that's the easiest example to clarify my point. I don't completely agree they don't care about the number of characters--they're highly secretive of many aspects of the game, and it's the reason why they give vague statements about the game's totality (otherwise, they could just advertise "72 characters and 103 stages!" instead of changing the totals each time. Sure, they care more about identity, but I'm sure they care about both.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

You do realize actively hoping for DLC announcements prior to the game’s release makes you sound like a giant drone and a doing-it-for-free shill, right?
If this were any other game, people would be ****ing thrashing you for even entertaining the idea of content being withheld (because in the end, that’s what DLC actually is). And I know you’re saying it won’t be, but you’re also saying it’d be a good thing if it were.

Not that it'll likely help your pessimism, but that's not how Sakurai has worked on dlc in the past. Meaning Smash 4 dlc was developed after the game was finished. He States it in the Final Smash Direct for 4 (that announced Corrin and Bayo) and mentions how it's unique from how dlc is usually developed.

Now I wouldn't be surprised if Mewtwo was developed alongside the end of Smash 4, and I wouldn't be surprised if we were to have that happen with our first dlc character again. But moving forward it won't be "held back content" unless by held back you mean you'd rather the game post poned a year or so.

Anyway just wanted to clarify of Sakurai has worked on dlc with smash in the past!

 

[ThatOneAnon]

Also was always the second most predicactable newcomer (after Inkling), and that was before echoes were introduced.

Sometimes I wonder how the perception of Ultimate would’ve changed if Isabelle and Ridley’s reveal dates were switched.

 

[Jetsurge]

Not that it'll likely help your pessimism, but that's not how Sakurai has worked on dlc in the past. Meaning Smash 4 dlc was developed after the game was finished. He States it in the Final Smash Direct for 4 (that announced Corrin and Bayo) and mentions how it's unique from how dlc is usually developed.

Now I wouldn't be surprised if Mewtwo was developed alongside the end of Smash 4, and I wouldn't be surprised if we were to have that happen with our first dlc character again. But moving forward it won't be "held back content" unless Hy held back you mean you'd rather the game post poned a year or so.

Anyway just wanted to clarify of Sakurai has worked on dlc with smash in the past!

Keep in mind Smash 3ds had already been released when Mewtwo was revealed.

 

[Xgears]

People still keep talking about the Box theory?
Oh no. Nintendo please announce the Direct already.

 

[Frostwraith]

I know a lot of people have no idea what Granblue Fantasy is, and let's be honest, it's a fairly obscure franchise outside of Japan so I can see why people would be upset with an inclusion of a character from that game.

But in Japan? That's a whole other story. It's a hugely popular mobile game, it got an anime adaptation, has a new game by PlatinumGames in development, there's a lot of other media and merchandising related to the franchise, including loads of soundtrack releases (Nobuo Uematsu is one of the music composers for the series).

Grandblue Fantasy isn't your average obscure anime-like Japanese game. It's actually a full on multimedia franchise at this point.

And, as previously stated in this thread, Nintendo owns 5% of Cygames and the two companies also developed Dragalia Lost.

So yeah, there are many reasons why would Granblue Fantasy be represented in Smash. As another fun fact: some of the creators behind Granblue Fantasy have also been involved in classic Final Fantasy games like FFV, FFVI and FFIX.

My only exposure to the series was from watching the first two or so episodes of the anime and I really didn't feel compelled to watch the rest and I'm not into mobile gaming either, so I personally don't care if a character from it got in the game. I wouldn't be upset either. The franchise does have its merits and isn't just some "weird niche weeb game" like some people are calling it.

About Steve, I have to wonder if Minecraft is big in Japan. Because if it's not, I can see Steve and Katalina being chosen as ways to appeal to both Western and Japanese markets.

 

[Xgears]

I know a lot of people have no idea what Granblue Fantasy is, and let's be honest, it's a fairly obscure franchise outside of Japan so I can see why people would be upset with an inclusion of a character from that game.

But in Japan? That's a whole other story. It's a hugely popular mobile game, it got an anime adaptation, has a new game by PlatinumGames in development, there's a lot of other media and merchandising related to the franchise, including loads of soundtrack releases (Nobuo Uematsu is one of the music composers for the series).

Grandblue Fantasy isn't your average obscure anime-like Japanese game. It's actually a full on multimedia franchise at this point.

And, as previously stated in this thread, Nintendo owns 5% of Cygames and the two companies also developed Dragalia Lost.

So yeah, there are many reasons why would Granblue Fantasy be represented in Smash. As another fun fact: some of the creators behind Granblue Fantasy have also been involved in classic Final Fantasy games like FFV, FFVI and FFIX.

My only exposure to the series was from watching the first two or so episodes of the anime and I really didn't feel compelled to watch the rest and I'm not into mobile gaming either, so I personally don't care if a character from it got in the game. I wouldn't be upset either. The franchise does have its merits and isn't just some "weird niche weeb game" like some people are calling it.

About Steve, I have to wonder if Minecraft is big in Japan. Because if it's not, I can see Steve and Katalina being chosen as ways to appeal to both Western and Japanese markets.

Thankfully if they're DLC I wouldn't have to buy them. I don't want to get into DLC much since the game isn't out and we don't know if it's handled like last time or not.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Unpopular opinion? Okay then, get ready for this earth-shattering red pill...

Spoiler

Yoshi is the best character ever!!!

Wrong.

It is goemon.

 

[ThatOneAnon]

I know a lot of people have no idea what Granblue Fantasy is, and let's be honest, it's a fairly obscure franchise outside of Japan so I can see why people would be upset with an inclusion of a character from that game.

But in Japan? That's a whole other story. It's a hugely popular mobile game, it got an anime adaptation, has a new game by PlatinumGames in development, there's a lot of other media and merchandising related to the franchise, including loads of soundtrack releases (Nobuo Uematsu is one of the music composers for the series).

Grandblue Fantasy isn't your average obscure anime-like Japanese game. It's actually a full on multimedia franchise at this point.

And, as previously stated in this thread, Nintendo owns 5% of Cygames and the two companies also developed Dragalia Lost.

So yeah, there are many reasons why would Granblue Fantasy be represented in Smash. As another fun fact: some of the creators behind Granblue Fantasy have also been involved in classic Final Fantasy games like FFV, FFVI and FFIX.

My only exposure to the series was from watching the first two or so episodes of the anime and I really didn't feel compelled to watch the rest and I'm not into mobile gaming either, so I personally don't care if a character from it got in the game. I wouldn't be upset either. The franchise does have its merits and isn't just some "weird niche weeb game" like some people are calling it.

About Steve, I have to wonder if Minecraft is big in Japan. Because if it's not, I can see Steve and Katalina being chosen as ways to appeal to both Western and Japanese markets.

PLATINUMGAMES WHAT
OH MY GOD THIS HAD BETTER COME TO THE WEST

 

[Frostwraith]

PLATINUMGAMES WHAT
OH MY GOD THIS HAD BETTER COME TO THE WEST

https://gematsu.com/2018/07/granblu...nto-english-french-italian-german-and-spanish

Seeing as it's being localized in English and various other European languages, it most likely will.

 

[drag0nscythe]

Not that it'll likely help your pessimism, but that's not how Sakurai has worked on dlc in the past. Meaning Smash 4 dlc was developed after the game was finished. He States it in the Final Smash Direct for 4 (that announced Corrin and Bayo) and mentions how it's unique from how dlc is usually developed.

Now I wouldn't be surprised if Mewtwo was developed alongside the end of Smash 4, and I wouldn't be surprised if we were to have that happen with our first dlc character again. But moving forward it won't be "held back content" unless Hy held back you mean you'd rather the game post poned a year or so.

Anyway just wanted to clarify of Sakurai has worked on dlc with smash in the past!

I want to add that in most games, the base game is lacking and dlc is there to make it complete. The ending was missing or important characters are behind a pay wall. Smash ultimate is not lacking. Dlc isnfone here.

 

[Gyrom8]

A complete non-sequitur, but it's been nearly two months since the 8.8 direct. And I still can't get over just how good K. Rool's reveal was. I'm not even invested in the character, but everything about it was just perfect. Here's hoping that whoever is remaining is delivered with as much style.

 

[Thinkaman]

The point of the box theory was not how many characters were on the box.

The total number of characters on the box has nothing to do with box theory.

The theory promoted by the box was unrelated to the net sum of character portraits on one or both sides of the box.

Counting the characters on the side of the box is an unrelated exercise to understanding the information contained on the box.

If you look at the box, the number of characters on it is not helpful information pertaining to theories resulting from it nor the topic at hand.

The subject of discussion concerning this promotional packaging mock-up does not primarily focus on the total quantity of rectangles gracing its lateral surfaces.

Summing the depictions of Nintendo characters upon the showcased display of this software vessel is not the central thesis of discourse relating to information that might be understood from its examination.

It's the order.

 

[Jetsurge]

About Steve, I have to wonder if Minecraft is big in Japan. Because if it's not, I can see Steve and Katalina being chosen as ways to appeal to both Western and Japanese markets.

Minecraft is big everywhere. There's a reason it sold for 2.5 billion.

 

[Nekoo]

Are people really confusing
- DLC removed from base game to sell it later
- DLC planning/Pré-production/développement Because you know your game will be a success
- DLC made because it might be the only way to not waste resources that were planned but couldn't be finished on release

Because I see a bit of all three here... When it's plainly obvious that Smash will only fall on option 2/3 if we already get DLC news

 

[Amiibo Doctor]

The point of the box theory was not how many characters were on the box.

The total number of characters on the box has nothing to do with box theory.

The theory promoted by the box was unrelated to the net sum of character portraits on one or both sides of the box.

Counting the characters on the side of the box is an unrelated exercise to understanding the information contained on the box.

If you look at the box, the number of characters on it is not helpful information pertaining to theories resulting from it nor the topic at hand.

The subject of discussion concerning this promotional packaging mock-up does not primarily focus on the total quantity of rectangles gracing its lateral surfaces.

Summing the depictions of Nintendo characters upon the showcased display of this software vessel is not the central thesis of discourse relating to information that might be understood from its examination.

It's the order.

If I'm understanding this correctly, you're saying box theory is saying there's only four left.

 

[Imadethistoseealeak]

Keep in mind Smash 3ds had already been released when Mewtwo was revealed.

I was gunna mention that too! Yea Smash dlc is a good example of what dlc should be. I hope they go with a season pass that saves you some money though (although I don't think any of Nintendo's season passes actually save you money...)

A complete non-sequitur, but it's been nearly two months since the 8.8 direct. And I still can't get over just how good K. Rool's reveal was. I'm not even invested in the character, but everything about it was just perfect. Here's hoping that whoever is remaining is delivered with as much style.

I don't care if Ken and Incineroar are our last characters, but it would really make the last reveals predictable and not very surprising. I hope we have at least one more reveal like King K. Rool's before Ultimate's release.

 

[Thinkaman]

If I'm understanding this correctly, you're saying box theory is saying there's only four left.

No, there's 17, as well as 5 stages. (Except all 5 are Minecraft so YMMV)

 

[Spazzy_D]

Not that it'll likely help your pessimism, but that's not how Sakurai has worked on dlc in the past. Meaning Smash 4 dlc was developed after the game was finished. He States it in the Final Smash Direct for 4 (that announced Corrin and Bayo) and mentions how it's unique from how dlc is usually developed.

Now I wouldn't be surprised if Mewtwo was developed alongside the end of Smash 4, and I wouldn't be surprised if we were to have that happen with our first dlc character again. But moving forward it won't be "held back content" unless by held back you mean you'd rather the game post poned a year or so.

Anyway just wanted to clarify of Sakurai has worked on dlc with smash in the past!

Smash 3DS definitely launched with the intention of DLC. The next page and shop data where datamined from the title at launch.

DLC was also worked on while Smash Ultimate was in planning. There's definitely some overlap with DLC planning and the team wrapping up work.

 

[Green_Pikmin*]

Anyone else think if there is gonna be a smash direct next week, that it is gonna be announced in tonight's blog post?

 

[Jetsurge]

I think dlc is at least in the planning stages now but has not started development. The Smash Ultimate project plan was made during the later half of Smash 4 dlc so I think it makes sense.

Anyone else think if there is gonna be a smash direct next week, that it is gonna be announced in tonight's blog post?

I think it'll be announced on Monday and the direct will be on the 10th.

 

[Nekoo]

I think dlc is at least in the planning stages now but has not started development. The Smash Ultimate project plan was made during the later half of Smash 4 dlc so I think it makes sense.

Well, like I said and no one answered me. What if the Square-Enix Characters is INDEED DLC and announced before the game release? What would people think of it?
Vergeben said that there a very realistic possibility that this Character is DLC.


If it happens, in my personal opinion I think it was because it was a "Sonic in brawl" situation. Where Sakurai got bluballed by Square who then accepted way too late, but instead of delaying the game they made it DLC

 

[bbybae]

So if we get more than 2 more characters, or if we get someone who isn't Ken or Incineroar, does that deconfirm box theory?
(and reopen the floodgates for speculation?)

 

[osby]

Sometimes I wonder how the perception of Ultimate would’ve changed if Isabelle and Ridley’s reveal dates were switched.

People would call Daisy and Inklings (alongside with Isabelle) promotional picks who only got in due to recency, nevermind Daisy is like thirty years old.

"Everyone is Here" still would create tons of hype though.

 

[Untouch]

So if we get more than 2 more characters, or if we get someone who isn't Ken or Incineroar, does that deconfirm box theory?
(and reopen the floodgates for speculation?)

No,
The newcomer can be anyone, the echo just needs to be an that fits in the pattern. If we get shadow for example the box theory is debunked.

 

[Thinkaman]

The point of the box theory was not how many characters were on the box.

The total number of characters on the box has nothing to do with box theory.

The theory promoted by the box was unrelated to the net sum of character portraits on one or both sides of the box.

Counting the characters on the side of the box is an unrelated exercise to understanding the information contained on the box.

If you look at the box, the number of characters on it is not helpful information pertaining to theories resulting from it nor the topic at hand.

The subject of discussion concerning this promotional packaging mock-up does not primarily focus on the total quantity of rectangles gracing its lateral surfaces.

Summing the depictions of Nintendo characters upon the showcased display of this software vessel is not the central thesis of discourse relating to information that might be understood from its examination.

So if we get more than 2 more characters, or if we get someone who isn't Ken or Incineroar, does that deconfirm box theory?
(and reopen the floodgates for speculation?)

Am I dead? Is this hell?

 

[Jetsurge]

So if we get more than 2 more characters, or if we get someone who isn't Ken or Incineroar, does that deconfirm box theory?
(and reopen the floodgates for speculation?)

More than 2 unique newcomers or/and an echo that isn't Medusa or Ken would break it.

 

[Cosmic77]

Also was always the second most predicactable newcomer (after Inkling), and that was before echoes were introduced.

It's funny how much of a suprise Isabelle ended up being, even though most of us expected her.

Before E3, even those who weren't an avid supporter of hers probably would've admitted that they thought she was likely. Following E3 and Verge outright saying she was in the game, people assumed Isabelle would be another easy-to-implement Echo Fighter. Then she gets officially revealed in the September Direct, but not as an Echo. People flip out by her reveal, even though they had already mentally prepared themselves for Isabelle being playable in some capacity.