Quick question for y'all, you guys believe in that one video Alax made about us getting something like 7-8 more characters? Because apparently some people I follow are believing it, and I mean, look. That'd be nuts. But I don't know if that'll be the case or not.
As I've mentioned, while I agree with the videos, I find that the Reddit post, Gamexplain's video, and Alax's video describing "Blog Theory"--has done more in obfuscating what are some really simple assumptions. Many of us back in August noted the same thing--with an average of three character posts per week, and the number of characters already revealed, if the rate of character posts did not change, there could be a maximum of 7-8 characters (8-9 when I did it initially before Isabelle's reveal) that hadn't been revealed yet. All the Reddit post and Alax's video did was over complicated it using more math than needed. I've likened it to using a supercomputer in order to calculate the number of piano tuners in Chicago--despite a simple back-of-the-envelope calculation accomplishing the same thing.
However, as a result, people misinterpret it as being a character count--rather than the maximum amount that it is, because it assumes the rate of posts would not change. I think that's a fair assumption, but an assumption nonetheless. And with Sakurai's recent statements, it could potentially be a false assumption. If they had planned out too many characters up front, and from here on out are slowing down, then the assumption that the rate of posts would not change is flawed. But only if the rate of blog posts matches the pace of reveals Sakurai described. So far, the rate has not changed, but we'll have to see in a couple of weeks if that changes.
And I do not think that having 7-8 more characters left is as ridiculous as some people think. An example using past precedents:
October (3): A Pokemon is revealed around a Pokemon Direct. A standalone announcement, like Robin/Lucina, could reveal a unique newcomer and echo.
November (4-5): A Smash Direct just like the August one: 2 unique characters, and 2-3 echoes revealed.
This is a hypothetical timeline that allows 7-8 characters, but not as ridiculous as some believe given we only have two months left. Put in another way, between June and August we had 8 characters revealed. Between September and November, we could just as easily have 8 character reveals, 7 now that Isabelle has been revealed. Doesn't *have* to be that way, but not as ridiculous as people like to make it sound.