Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Swamp Sensei]

Except Verge confirmed it was real.

 

[Shroob]

And then Verg said it was legit, and was hella pissed at Loz for posting it.


The straw grasping is unreal here.

 

[MrSmashFour]

Is the double team of Ridley and Simon not enough?

I'll give you that Simon was his most shocking - but even he's been mooted since Brawl days.

Ridley has been theorised since 2000 and has always, always, always shown up on a leak since the year dot. It just so happens - as we all know - that this game is especially fan-servicey, so leaks that usually would just be seen as the BS they are appear to be true - because Sakurai know what fans want.

 

[papagenos]

If a Square character is happening for DLC, it is admittedly something they'd need to know months in advance.



Wow you are out of the loop son. Loz leaked a PM WITH Verge.

true but then it ends us at #69 in a game the emphasized the fighter numbers for the first time.

and ends with incineroar and ken.

OR we get geno in base roster at a final #70, hes hidden til the end (even on the box) and is the final reveal hype super secret "ballot choice" newcomer sakurai saved for last...yes ill keep pointing out my geno bias, but seriously it makes more sense this way.

legit i dont care if geno is base roster or dlc and im confident he's in one way or the other but right now him getting in at the end makes more sense here right?

 

[Noipoi]

Aw man, and here I thought box theory was finally dead.

 

[Nonno Umby]

I've just seen Vergeben's message about the whole box thing. Why suddently people belive he confirmed it? He just said that his sources haven't commented on it, and that he haven't heard of any other character beside it, but he never stated that he knows the whole roster or that is it. Actually he still holding strong to his Square enix newcomer, stating that his source for it was never wrong, and he never said it was DLC.

 

[Shroob]

true but then it ends us at #69 in a game the emphasized the fighter numbers for the first time.

and ends with incineroar and ken.

OR we get geno in base roster at a final #70, hes hidden til the end (even on the box) and is the final reveal hype super secret "ballot choice" newcomer sakurai saved for last...yes ill keep pointing out my geno bias, but seriously it makes more sense this way.

legit i dont care if geno is base roster or dlc and im confident he's in one way or the other but right now him getting in at the end makes more sense here right?

Mate, I get it.

You're super biased towards Geno, and it makes sense for him to be here.


But one way or another, a 2nd SE rep is happening according to him, DLC or not, so take a chill. This is turning into bargaining.

 

[MrSmashFour]

Except Verge confirmed it was real.

And then Verg said it was legit, and was hella pissed at Loz for posting it.


The straw grasping is unreal here.

Whatever way you slice it, Incineroar is a safe guess. Out of all Gen 7 reps, he is the most likely. Again, easily predictable.
If Verg had claimed Ken would be in before the August direct, I'd be inclined to believe him, but the fact he only claimed it after third party echoes were confirmed to be a thing just smacks of band-wagoning and playing it safe to me.

 

[KMDP]

I got that trophy six months after I stopped posting on the site, after all the DLC for Smash 4 was released, when all my mains were Toon Link, lol.

Well, obviously it's because Toon Link is the best Link.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Aw man, and here I thought box theory was finally dead.

Box theory was never dead nor confirmed.

108 potential stages didn't do anything for or against it.

 

[Shroob]

Whatever way you slice it, Incineroar is a safe guess. Out of all Gen 7 reps, he is the most likely. Again, easily predictable.
If Verg had claimed Ken would be in before the August direct, I'd be inclined to believe him, but the fact he only claimed it after third party echoes were confirmed to be a thing just smacks of band-wagoning and playing it safe to me.

"Incineroar was a safe guess"


Literally EVERYONE wanted the ****ing owl before Verg came.



Revisionist history at its finest.

 

[CosmicQuark]

I mean, I legit tried, but you kinda blew it off.

Each character chunk is done in groups of nine, so we can assume on the side we can't see it goes from Mario to - Pikachu, and then starts up on the other side with Luigi.


There are 36 spots that can be filled on both sides, and on the side we can see, we can see 34 characters, meaning the 35 we're missing are on the other side.


So unless there's only going to be 35 characters on both sides with one empty box a piece on both sides, Ken's over there chilling in the spot that it gets ****y unless there's an Echo.

Sorry if you thought I blew it off, you said I was using mental gymnastics when all I did was explain how we're prone to pattern-seeking behavior, even when those patterns don't exist. There wasn't much I could respond to without repeating myself.

That doesn't address my concerns at all though. I've seen everything people have said about box theory, including what they think it looked like. Why order them in numbered order when by going by groups of nine there is a discontinuous jump in the middle of each row (e.g., Roy after Sheik, Corrin after Mii Fighters, similar situation on the back)? I'm not saying it would be in groups of 35 on each side. I'm saying the box art isn't final (if we hypothetically add those three characters) and we can't draw any conclusions from it. For all we know, there could be 7 columns, or 5, or something different because it's just a placeholder. Some intern could have ****ed up when doing the numbering, and it was coincidentally Ryu's row.

Yes, if we think the pattern exists, the fact Ryu is in the stack of 9 characters matches up with only the characters Verge has mentioned is *weird*. What's even weirder is having those characters in numbered ordered with discontinuous jumps on the finalized box art. But I think the "pattern" is meaningless. It looks like the Smash equivalent of numerology.

It’s because the original 8 would appear on one side of the box. It’s 9 because Samus has an echo who appears right after her, though the group ends with Pikachu.



Those are probably out of order, but that’s all of them in the first 9

But why? Wouldn't it make more sense to go in numbered order down one side, and continue where you left off on the other side (keeping the original "8" on the same side)? Or wrap around where it maintains numbered order? Why have the original 8 (turned 9 due to damus) dictate the pattern when it creates the discontinuities (since they take up a row and a half and not a row or two evenly)? However, I do give this credit at least sort of addressing why the number 9, but it doesn't explain the discontinuities. It just seems like a really odd decision if that's the "final" box art.

I admit, this is confusing. Every time I respond about Box Theory, I have to refer back to the original image, the forum posts showing the order, and my wallpaper (which looks awesome) showing every character in order, which is why it takes me 5 years for me to respond.

 

[MrSmashFour]

I've just seen Vergeben's message about the whole box thing. Why suddently people belive he confirmed it? He just said that his sources haven't commented on it, and that he haven't heard of any other character beside it, but he never stated that he knows the whole roster or that is it. Actually he still holding strong to his Square enix newcomer, stating that his source for it was never wrong, and he never said it was DLC.

Because people will believe Verg means anything as long as it fits with their confirmation bias. He is definitely 100% real after all, and so is the box theory, so they couldn't possibly contradict each other!

 

[vaanrose]

I've just seen Vergeben's message about the whole box thing. Why suddently people belive he confirmed it? He just said that his sources haven't commented on it, and that he haven't heard of any other character beside it, but he never stated that he knows the whole roster or that is it. Actually he still holding strong to his Square enix newcomer, stating that his source for it was never wrong, and he never said it was DLC.

He's not confirming it. But he's not denying it or discrediting it, either. Which is peculiar given if he was equally confident about the SE character as Ken and Incineroar, he'd have every reason to say the Box Theory is wrong.

 

[Captain Fun]

Box theory was never dead nor confirmed.

108 potential stages didn't do anything for or against it.

Pretty much. Throw in a couple returning stages, a Gen 7 Pokemon stage, that Monster Hunter stage with Rathalos, or even that rumored Minecraft stage, and you can add another 5 easy without suddenly needing to add a bunch of other characters from all new series.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Look, I appreciate skepticism towards leaks and leakers. I really, really do.

But there is a certain point where it's no longer skepticism and it becomes prideful stubbornness.

 

[Nethermoosen]

Is the double team of Ridley and Simon not enough?

Not to mention he tripled down when he said Simon and Isabelle are a lock a while back. He said anything that didn’t include them is auto-fake. Nothing but net.

 

[MrSmashFour]

"Incineroar was a safe guess"


Literally EVERYONE wanted the ****ing owl before Verg came.



Revisionist history at its finest.

I still want the owl. I'd love Decidueye to be in.

Doesn't change the fact that Incineroar is a safe guess and always has been. I've been suspecting him since March. In fact, if you don't believe me (and maybe you'll just believe I didn't make this in March, but whatever, I know what I did), here's my prediction roster from March

 

[Swamp Sensei]

Whatever way you slice it, Incineroar is a safe guess. Out of all Gen 7 reps, he is the most likely. Again, easily predictable.

...

Were you not here for the Decidueye period?

Incineroar wasn't seen as a likely candidate til after Verge.

Because people will believe Verg means anything as long as it fits with their confirmation bias. He is definitely 100% real after all, and so is the box theory, so they couldn't possibly contradict each other!

I think you're getting defensive, sir.

 

[CyberHyperPhoenix]

I've never seen the Smash community's hindsight bias being exposed so clearly this speculation cycle than before.

You guys are crazy.

 

[Deleted member]

Here, I think now would be no more of a better time than ever for a little game! What do you guys think the last five stages will be for Smash Ultimate? Here's mine to start things off.

Battle Harbor (from Street Fighter II) - It makes the most sense, given how many Street Fighter songs we have and Ken coming into the roster. Sonic and Pac-Man have/had two stages before, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Street Fighter get another stage. I wouldn't mind either, it's the grandfather of fighting games, after all.
Aether Foundation (from Pokemon Sun & Moon) - Given with how Incineroar is in the roster (assumably) and how we need representation for Gen VII. As long as it brings a really pretty and creative stage layout and some more bangers, I'm all fine wit it.
Bowser's Keep (from Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars) - Since we still need that Square rep confirmation, we all assume it'd be Geno. I couldn't really decide on an affirmative locale from the game, but since we have more boss themes remixed from the Mario series and how we STILL haven't had a Bowser's Castle stage yet, Bowser's Keep would make for a REALLY cool locale.
The Overworld (from Minecraft) - Uhhh... Minecraft. Yeah.
Alrest (from Xenoblade Chronicles 2) - Travelling around the Titans, pretty much, ending it all off at a modified area of the 7th Perimeter Skyport section of the World Tree. Let me have my dream, dammit.

 

[MrSmashFour]

...
Incineroar wasn't seen as a likely candidate til after Verge.

Decidueye was the most-wanted candidate.
Incineroar was the most likely.

 

[vaanrose]

Why order them in numbered order when by going by groups of nine there is a discontinuous jump in the middle of each row

It's doesn't matter to the theory why it's organized that way. The theory is simply based on the observation that it is ordered that way.

 

[Shroob]

I still want the owl. I'd love Decidueye to be in.

Doesn't change the fact that Incineroar is a safe guess and always has been. I've been suspecting him since March. In fact, if you don't believe me (and maybe you'll just believe I didn't make this in March, but whatever, I know what I did), here's my prediction roster from March

I still want the owl. I'd love Decidueye to be in.

Doesn't change the fact that Incineroar is a safe guess and always has been. I've been suspecting him since March. In fact, if you don't believe me (and maybe you'll just believe I didn't make this in March, but whatever, I know what I did), here's my prediction roster from March

I think it's time you learn something.


ResetEra mods also believe Verg is legit, and ResetEra actually probably KNOWS his inside source in and out, just like Jon from GameExplain magically pulling games that didn't exist out of a hat pre-Direct did.


You are literally going on a "HAHAHAHA HE'S WRONG!" tirade when he's still yet to be so. Wait until the next reveals before you make final judgment.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

People still thunk Decidueye had a chance until recently even though his chances haven't really decreased? Verge still isn't 100% sure it's Incineroar, just a Gen 7 rep.

 

[Shroob]

People still thunk Decidueye had a chance until recently even though his chances haven't really decreased? Verge still isn't 100% sure it's Incineroar, just a Gen 7 rep.

He literally just said he's 100% confident it's Incineroar.

 

[ZephyrZ]

Decidueye was the most-wanted candidate.
Incineroar was the most likely.

Most people would have disagreed with you. Personally I could have seen it going either way.

Just because you predicted it doesn't mean everyone else did or that it was the safest bet.

 

[Nonno Umby]

He's not confirming it. But he's not denying it or discrediting it, either. Which is peculiar given if he was equally confident about the SE character as Ken and Incineroar, he'd have every reason to say the Box Theory is wrong.

I kind of see the point, but still I doubt it means anything about the vericity of the box theory. He didn't backed off his characters in the slithest, and he is basically saying "wait and see", which is why we should all do.
It's the same as saying that the fact that Nintendo didn't put that box down confirms it doesn't leak anything.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

You are literally going on a "HAHAHAHA HE'S WRONG!" tirade when he's still yet to be so. Wait until the next reveals before you make final judgment.

No he isn't.

He's stating that even if Verge is right, then he's still wrong.

Which isn't skepticism, its an attack on his character.

 

[MrSmashFour]

I think it's time you learn something.


ResetEra mods also believe Verg is legit, and ResetEra actually probably KNOWS his inside source in and out, just like Jon from GameExplain magically pulling games that didn't exist out of a hat pre-Direct did.


You are literally going on a "HAHAHAHA HE'S WRONG!" tirade when he's still yet to be so. Wait until the next reveals before you make final judgment.

He's yet to be wrong because he makes safe guesses and people bend them to something more than they are.

He said "No cuts from Smash 4 and ICs are in", and apparently that translated fine to "EVERYONE THAT'S EVER BEEN IN SMASH IS BACK!" to everyone.

 

[ZephyrZ]

He said "No cuts from Smash 4 and ICs are in", and apparently that translated fine to "EVERYONE THAT'S EVER BEEN IN SMASH IS BACK!" to everyone.

Failing to predict something is different from getting something wrong.
Just because he didn't know everyone was back doesn't mean his information was false.

 

[Shroob]

He's yet to be wrong because he makes safe guesses and people bend them to something more than they are.

He said "No cuts from Smash 4 and ICs are in", and apparently that translated fine to "EVERYONE THAT'S EVER BEEN IN SMASH IS BACK!" to everyone.

Everything is a safe guess with the revisionist history glasses on.

Even if Keniroar are the next two reveals in the same trailer, you'll just say they were 'easy guesses'.



You're the kind of person who still thinks Gematsu was fake in 2018.

 

[MrSmashFour]

Most people would have disagreed with you. Personally I could have seen it going either way.

Just because you predicted it doesn't mean everyone else did or that it was the safest bet.

Well maybe Verg and I just have more common sense that a Pokemon that was consistently marketed as a wrestler was more likely to be in Smash. Incineroar always has been the safest bet, no matter what the consensus was.

 

[Shyy_Guy595]

He literally just said he's 100% confident it's Incineroar.

Okay then.

I'll remain skeptical, but optimistic since I wouldn't mind it.

 

[Nonno Umby]

He's yet to be wrong because he makes safe guesses and people bend them to something more than they are.

He said "No cuts from Smash 4 and ICs are in", and apparently that translated fine to "EVERYONE THAT'S EVER BEEN IN SMASH IS BACK!" to everyone.

He also called Snake and Simon Belmont when everyone was going Fu*Konami, which is quite far from a safe guess.

 

[Nethermoosen]

Sorry if you thought I blew it off, you said I was using mental gymnastics when all I did was explain how we're prone to pattern-seeking behavior, even when those patterns don't exist. There wasn't much I could respond to without repeating myself.

That doesn't address my concerns at all though. I've seen everything people have said about box theory, including what they think it looked like. Why order them in numbered order when by going by groups of nine there is a discontinuous jump in the middle of each row (e.g., Roy after Sheik, Corrin after Mii Fighters, similar situation on the back)? I'm not saying it would be in groups of 35 on each side. I'm saying the box art isn't final (if we hypothetically add those three characters) and we can't draw any conclusions from it. For all we know, there could be 7 columns, or 5, or something different because it's just a placeholder. Some intern could have ****ed up when doing the numbering, and it was coincidentally Ryu's row.

Yes, if we think the pattern exists, the fact Ryu is in the stack of 9 characters matches up with only the characters Verge has mentioned is *weird*. What's even weirder is having those characters in numbered ordered with discontinuous jumps on the finalized box art. But I think the "pattern" is meaningless. It looks like the Smash equivalent of numerology.



But why? Wouldn't it make more sense to go in numbered order down one side, and continue where you left off on the other side (keeping the original "8" on the same side)? Or wrap around where it maintains numbered order? Why have the original 8 (turned 9 due to damus) dictate the pattern when it creates the discontinuities (since they take up a row and a half and not a row or two evenly)? However, I do give this credit at least sort of addressing why the number 9, but it doesn't explain the discontinuities. It just seems like a really odd decision if that's the "final" box art.

I admit, this is confusing. Every time I respond about Box Theory, I have to refer back to the original image, the forum posts showing the order, and my wallpaper (which looks awesome) showing every character in order, which is why it takes me 5 years for me to respond.

I dunno. I guess they didn’t care much? That’s just the reason I would go with. But even then, they could just as easily have gone down the list in the normal way. Could be they wanted Luigi and Mario to be the top of each list? That part doesn’t really matter, though. They still went with the “rule of 9”

 

[Dandelionel]

He's yet to be wrong because he makes safe guesses and people bend them to something more than they are.

He said "No cuts from Smash 4 and ICs are in", and apparently that translated fine to "EVERYONE THAT'S EVER BEEN IN SMASH IS BACK!" to everyone.

>Simon
>Safe guess
wha

 

[papagenos]

Mate, I get it.

You're super biased towards Geno, and it makes sense for him to be here.


But one way or another, a 2nd SE rep is happening according to him, DLC or not, so take a chill. This is turning into bargaining.

i think youre mis-reading me here, or misinterrpreting my frantic sounding posts. im FINE with geno being in as dlc.

if i sound frantic its not because im like worried about geno suddenly(im fine with him as dlc or base roster and confident hes in based on verge) what im syaing is i think the box theory and verge pretty much add up to geno being a final reveal.

im excited to assume this might be the case and pushing all the evidence that goes with the box theory/verge/and getting geno and it all seems to add up and make sense.

 

[MrSmashFour]

Everything is a safe guess with the revisionist history glasses on.

Even if Keniroar are the next two reveals in the same trailer, you'll just say they were 'easy guesses'.



You're the kind of person who still thinks Gematsu was fake in 2018.

I'm saying Ken and Incineroar are easy guesses right now. Incineroar has been from the start (I guessed him in March), and Ken has been since the August direct (which is before Verg predicted him).

 

[Shroob]

Well maybe Verg and I just have more common sense that a Pokemon that was consistently marketed as a wrestler was more likely to be in Smash. Incineroar always has been the safest bet, no matter what the consensus was.

"Constantly marketed"


Except, it hasn't.


It was in a single movie as an antagonist's Pokemon.


Ash's Torracat hasn't even evolved yet. So no, it hasn't even had anime fame.