Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[google chrom]

Do you know how hype it would be if with Incenaroar they released Pokemon stadium 3?

 

[Jovahexeon Joranvexeon]

Also, loz became deflated about Skull Kid's chances after he potentially

Ooh! How'd that go about in context if I may ask?

 

[Rocket Raccoon]

What is missing from the Smash website?

 

[Icedragonadam]

FYI that these three missing blog posts doesn't rule out a new IP character. Dracula's Castle was posted much later than Simon. Simon is 100 while Dracula's Castle which was posted a week later was 107.

 

[Danpal65]

View attachment 163263


If Skull Kid is revealed, then going off of just what Vergeben and Loz have said(+Shadow), this could be the final roster.


I'm completely down for it.

I mean you'd have to be pretty cynical to be unhappy with that roster. Personally I'd be more than happy with it, although the inclusion of Incineroar and a lack of new Xenoblade character would be a bit of a bummer.

 

[Michael the Spikester]

My prediction for Mocks.

Base:
-Bandana Dee
-Gen 7 Pokemon rep
-Geno
-Inkling
-King K. Rool
-Rhythm Heaven rep
-Ridley
-Simon
-Skull Kid

DLC:
-Banjo-Kazooie
-Isaac
-Namco rep
-Rex & Pyra

Italic means confirmed

 

[Shroob]

Yet you put so much confidence that the next direct/announcement just has to be one or the other character based on... nothing.

Because what do we have to go off of besides what the "Leaks" say?


If it's Skull Kid/Incineroar, I'm putting all the eggs in the same basket. It could be not them, but at the same time, we don't have enough info to say with certainty yet.

 

[Abha]

View attachment 163263


If Skull Kid is revealed, then going off of just what Vergeben and Loz have said(+Shadow), this could be the final roster.


I'm completely down for it.

This is such a duality to me because on one hand a roster comprised of fan favorite and long awaited never ever is great, on the other hand the fact that we've discussed this exact set up of a roster for months in advance for launch with no surprises would be incredibly disappointing.

 

[Arcanir]

File 121 is also strangely missing. It's between Ness's Memories and Rathalos. Yoshi's Island music is 123 Btw.

Interesting, IIRC the Rathalos post also had an oddly long gap between the twitter post and blog post as well as I remember the complaints about the late update. That could mean that the Rathalos post was either updated too early and they just decided to skip the intended one, or 121 had something they didn't want to talk about yet.

Or I'm overthinking it and it may very well be nothing, but hey, it's fun speculating over these.

 

[Mega Bidoof]

It really is a matter of your interpretation.
In Brawl, he said the exact same thing about not many new characters. That would be a near direct comparison.
He may not outright lie, but he clearly does troll. It is not a negative thing, it is because he loves surprises and wants to misdirect us. I agree that this is different than lying, it is fully about the art of misdirection to ultimately make us more hype in the end.
Remember getting Toon Link in the background? Tell me that is not trolling.

Trolling =/= directly lying is the main point. I never said he doesn’t troll.

He’s never said “I will not do this,” and then proceed to do it in the same development cycle.
He has gone back on his word and changed his mind on things for later projects (Pac-Man, Villager, Miis, and Ridley), but that’s just him changing his mind later on, not lying.

Or that anyone on these boards would not have claimed that meant the character was not in the game (hell, we still say that means characters wont get in if they are in the background; much less already used in any capacity- even though we now know characters *will* function dual roles, as far as AT/boss and background/playable). The rules arent broken until they are. And everything he says is true, until its not.

There were a good amount of people here, if not the majority, that didn’t take conductor Link’s presence as Toon Link being deconfirmed.

We compared it to 75m, and most of us thought Toon Link still had a chance.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Yeah, it's boring, but it's what people want.

As much as I like surprises, I'll take a roster of characters that people actually want for once tyvm.

No... no its not what people want.
There is a difference between Ridley and K Rool, and the other characters on the list.
We as a Smash fanbase online, are not the entire Smash community.
The longer we speculate about an announced game, the more the same characters echo back around because it is what we see likely.
This isnt perfectly representing what everyone who buys this game actually wants; at best it is representative of what those who spend their times speculating want, and even then, I find it foolish to think the names one reads and then perpetuates are the end all to the lists.

Most people just dont have the ability to get to their own thoughts once they read an idea over an over again. Let's get some psychological stats on this point.

Regardless, when the game comes out and those 'expected' characters are not the final list, we can pick this conversation back up.

 

[Handy Man]

My speculation on the remaining newcomers for Ultimate:

One thing that has me puzzled was Sakurai's language in the last direct. I thought in the June direct it seemed clear that were would be less newcomers than Smash 4 and Brawl (17 and 18 respectively). Right now we are at 8 newcomers with about three months until the game's release (and Sakurai confirming he plans to reveal every character before the game's release).

Will we within the last three months get a number of newcomers unveiled equal to what we have already have? Is there precedence?

Melee kept four unique newcomers and six clones hidden until very close to the game's release (Zelda, Mewtwo, Marth, Mr. Game & Watch, and the six Melee clone newcomers). That is 10 versus 4 (what was known about for most of the pre-Melee speculation period). Brawl's original release was December 2007. In the last four months prior to December, they revealed Ike, Diddy Kong, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard, Lucas, King Dedede, Sonic, and likely Olimar (and Lucario, ROB, Toon Link, and Wolf were kept hidden until release). That is 13 versus five.

Things get different with Smash 4. After E3 2014 (of which there were only three months left until Smash 4's release), there already had been 11 newcomers unveiled. Of the remaining six newcomers not to be shown, two of them were echoes, and only three were kept hidden until the game's release (Bowser Jr., Duck Hunt, and Dark Pit). The pattern changed with Smash 4.

Many would think the Melee/Brawl model would happen over the Smash 4 once since so few newcomers have been confirmed so far, and we have only three months until the game's release. Aside from the Direct this week, there really exists only one more opportunity for character unveils within Nintendo Direct's which would be the last Direct before the game's launch (assuming there is only one more Smash Bros. direct and not two more). Assuming we are guaranteed one fully unique fighter for this upcoming direct, how much does that leave for the final direct if we are just purely looking at precedence?

For Smash 4, the highest amount of newcomer confirmations happened during E3. During E3 2013, three newcomers were confirmed. During E3 2014, five newcomers were confirmed. However, during E3 2018, only two were confirmed, one of which was an echo fighter. This divergence from precedence (along with the lack of any new content for Ultimate being confirmed in nearly two months) was what was leading to the pessimistic thinking that there were only five more additional newcomers after Ridley's confirmation.

However, with the 8/8 direct we were in for a massive surprise, we had nearly double the amount of newcomers unveiled than what had already been confirmed so far, and this lead to expectations return back to traditional Smash Bros. newcomer number expectations.

So I think the most optimistic scenario for fully unique fighters, is one unique newcomer for later this week, and three unique fighters for the final direct (one at the beginning, one in the middle, and one near the end), Echoes will likely be sandwiched somewhere in there. There are three locks as far as I am concerned for echoes (Isabelle, Ken, Shadow). If there are four more unique newcomers, I surmise there is one more echo fighter as well to keep the amount of echoes and unique newcomers even. This would give Ultimate 16 newcomers total.

However, 16? That does not sound like a number for Sakurai have to pair down the expectations of his fans. Even if you point to the lack of fully unique fighters, it is still on par with Melee (which also only had eight unique fighters). Sakurai also still considers echoes to be new character additions. Daisy, Chrom, and Dark Samus all made their fans very excited just as any other normal newcomer confirmation would for a fully unique fighter. Sakurai also imparted his lessened expectations again after the confirmations of Chrom and Dark Samus. Chrom and Dark Samus, even though they are echoes, both possess unique animations (or at least more than the Melee clones had) Even if you look at Richter, a lot of his animations (taunts and victory animations, and even one of his idle poses) gives close homage to poses he made in artwork and ingame for Rondo of Blood. Sakurai and his team are trying to stay true to these characters even if they are in the category of the most cloney of clones.

What then does the most pessimistic scenario look like if the most optimistic is another eight newcomers? Personally, I see the lowest range being five newcomers (that number includes both unique fighters and echoes). This number happening hinges upon whether there is a newcomer shown later this week or not. In the event there is not, the worst case scenario would be that there are only two fully unique fighters left in the game (a Pokemon newcomer and one out of Skull Kid or Geno). The remaining three newcomers would be Isabelle, Ken, and Shadow. A number of 13 newcomers is less than the last three Smash Bros. games and definitely a number Sakurai would want to warn his fans twice about in hoping to bring down fan expectations from traditional norms.

However, a range of only 5 to 8 does not seem that big does it? Well, it certainly does. Had Brawl only lost three more slots, Jigglypuff, Toon Link, and Wolf all would have been gone from Brawl. Had Brawl gained another three slots Mewtwo, Roy, and Dr. Mario would have made it in. That number (3) could mean the difference of your fan favorite making it or being relegated to a non-playable role as a consolation prize.

Of the most pessimistic scenario, I see Isabelle, Ken, and Shadow happening, so that is three out of five to eight slots, leaving only two to five slots left to speculate about. However, I expect one of those remaining two to five slots to be a Pokemon newcomer (especially judging by how much Sun/Moon content we have already seen in this game), and that will probably be Incineroar seeing as he is the one tipped off by Vergeben. That leaves only one to four slots left.

That is where things gets very interesting. There have been two credible leakers for Smash Bros. this go around: Vergeben and Loz. Vergeben is claiming Isabelle, Ken, and a Pokemon newcomer (he has said one of his sources have said Incineroar). He says one of his sources says there will be a second Square-Enix character. Most likely this means Geno, however, there is also a chance this could be someone to represent Dragon Quest, which is by far the biggest Japanese developed franchise without any sort of representation in Smash Bros.

In the other corner we have Loz, who is only claiming Skull Kid (though he made all sorts of other dodgy claims for other characters that he would say two completely different things about). Skull Kid is the character that Loz is putting all of his leaker chips on, and is the only one he has been adamant on since the 8/8 direct.

In the most pessimistic scenario, this means Geno versus Skull Kid for the final slot. Personally, if there is only ONE slot left, it would be most likely Geno in this scenario.

For the most optimistic scenario (four more newcomers left), things look far rosier. Both Skull Kid and Geno end up getting in, leaving two slots in contention. One a fully unique slot, and the other an echo fighter slot. Anything goes for both of them. Bandanna Dee, Chorus Kids, Banjo-Kazooie, Isaac, and Elma would all be strong contenders for such a slot. For the final echo fighter slot, again, there would be many strong contenders. Dixie Kong, Funky Kong, Impa, and Octoling (and possibly some sort of dark horse very few see coming like Richter was) are all strong contenders for this.

In less than three months, dreams will be either realized or dashed. However, even if there is only five (or even less) newcomers left, it is not the end. The DLC for Smash 4 was Nintendo's biggest moneymaker as far as DLC for their games was concerned. Even the Mii Fighter costumes sold very, very well. With this in mind, I expect there to be even more DLC for Ultimate than there was for Smash 4.

As long as the character does not have a major non-playable role in Ultimate, this leaves your character of choice to continue to have the possibility of being playable in Ultimate. The last round of Assist Trophies reveals will be very interesting for this reason alone. So far there have been 40 Assist Trophies confirmed, out of 50+ (which is the number given by Sakurai himself). This means that there are anywhere from 11 to 20 Assist Trophies left to be confirmed. I assume quite a few of those though will be veteran Assist Trophies though.

Ultimate has 103 stages. Nearly double the amount that Smash 4 Wii U had even with DLC. However, with such a tremendous number, only four of these stages are new to the series (New Donk City Hall, Dracula's Castle, Great Plateau Tower, and Moray Towers). That is less than half the stages that even Smash 64 had, yet its very interesting to see very few complaints about this, and all the eyes still on whether the amount of newcomers left will be "satisfactory".

With characters, Sakurai has brought back every character to date, a very impressive feat. Even ignoring the newcomers confirmed so far, seven veterans have been brought back for Ultimate that were not in Smash 4 or its DLC (Ice Climbers, Snake, Wolf, Squirtle, Ivysaur, Pichu, and Young Link). Only two of these seven fighters are like traditional clones (Pichu and Young Link), with the other five needing to have have their own unique animations be made for most of their movesets.

We are seeing the limit to just how many characters can enter a Smash Bros. game. Five to eight newcomers left is very, very impressive. Heck, even if there were less than five newcomers left, it would still be impressive.

The week ahead is going to prove to be absolutely essential for speculation. Even one newcomer confirmation for this week, can mean a ton going forward.

This was a beautiful essay, it was very easy to follow despite how long it was. Great job, hopefully we get the eight-newcomer senerio to make the most amount of people happy. Maybe you should consider reposting this to somewhere else where it could be easily preserved, since you clearly put a ton of thought and care into writting this. It would be a shame to have this essay lost in the most populated thread on SmashBoards without others being able to find it.

 

[Misery Brick]

Sometimes a thirst for a character can get to the lowest of lows (the Ridley Shadow fiasco ending with Ridley fans being depressed) to the highest of highs (Ridley being playable in Smash by killing Mario and Mega Man, leading to fans bleeding out money and excitement)

That is true!
I honestly think if it wasn't for Smash 4 speculation, Ridley might have not made it in the game. Like not to say he wasn't highly requested before, but Smash 4 was probably the time the Ridley fanbase became the most vocal character support group.

 

[CrusherMania1592]

Apparently direct images and famitsu scans are for sale on the dark web. Extremely high priced. Rumors are going around that someone has purchased it and has divulged info to ppl in the community. Not sure if this means ppl like verge loz rogersbase etc.

Worse case scenario?

He pays all of that money only to find out there’s no newcomers since last months Direct

Boy would someone be quite SALTY

 

[Jetsurge]

View attachment 163263


If Skull Kid is revealed, then going off of just what Vergeben and Loz have said(+Shadow), this could be the final roster.


I'm completely down for it.

I'd be fine with it if it also included Dixe Kong and Impa.

 

[domriver]

What is missing from the Smash website?

Geno.

 

[Shroob]

No... no its not what people want.
There is a difference between Ridley and K Rool, and the other characters on the list.
We as a Smash fanbase online, are not the entire Smash community.
The longer we speculate about an announced game, the more the same characters echo back around because it is what we see likely.
This isnt perfectly representing what everyone who buys this game actually wants; at best it is representative of what those who spend their times speculating want, and even then, I find it foolish to think the names one reads and then perpetuates are the end all to the lists.

Most people just dont have the ability to get to their own thoughts once they read an idea over an over again. Let's get some psychological stats on this point.

Regardless, when the game comes out and those 'expected' characters are not the final list, we can pick this conversation back up.

Everyone's going to want different things.

You cannot please everyone 100%, that's a pipe dream.


Regardless, if this IS the final roster, being upset at it is kinda....eh?

 

[Will]

Because what do we have to go off of besides what the "Leaks" say?

Nothing. Nothing supports any character being shown for any date and time. That's why I always said it could be anyone, because there's no point in saying X character is going to be shown on Y date.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Trolling =/= directly lying is the main point. I never said he doesn’t troll.

He’s never said “I will not do this,” and then proceed to do it in the same development cycle.
He has gone back on his word and changed his mind on things for later projects (Pac-Man, Villager, Miis, and Ridley), but that’s just him changing his mind later on, not lying.


There were a good amount of people here, if not the majority, that didn’t take conductor Link’s presence as Toon Link being deconfirmed.

We compared it to 75m, and most of us thought Toon Link still had a chance.

Well, your entire argument (if I read it correctly) was based around how many characters we will get. We were told we are not getting many characters. Well, he said the EXACT SAME THING for the previous game.
So, is he "lying?" No. We could get 25 new characters and that could technically be considered not lying. But your point is that he said we arent getting many characters, so we arent. Not only is that subjective and impossible to backup (how many is not many?), but the exact precedence of your argument disproves itself.

 

[Danpal65]

No... no its not what people want.
There is a difference between Ridley and K Rool, and the other characters on the list.
We as a Smash fanbase online, are not the entire Smash community.
The longer we speculate about an announced game, the more the same characters echo back around because it is what we see likely.
This isnt perfectly representing what everyone who buys this game actually wants; at best it is representative of what those who spend their times speculating want, and even then, I find it foolish to think the names one reads and then perpetuates are the end all to the lists.

Most people just dont have the ability to get to their own thoughts once they read an idea over an over again. Let's get some psychological stats on this point.

Regardless, when the game comes out and those 'expected' characters are not the final list, we can pick this conversation back up.

Well who is it that the "entire Smash community" wants that isn't here and has wide support?

 

[WallyPalmer]

View attachment 163263


If Skull Kid is revealed, then going off of just what Vergeben and Loz have said(+Shadow), this could be the final roster.


I'm completely down for it.

Honestly, stuff like this is why discussion gets stale. Talking about the same 6 characters gets grating eventually, and accepting two arguably-disreputable sources as gospel is how we end up with a lot of dissapointment

 

[TMNTSSB4]

That is true!
I honestly think if it wasn't for Smash 4 speculation, Ridley might have not made it in the game. Like not to say he wasn't highly requested before, but Smash 4 was probably the time the Ridley fanbase became the most vocal character support group.

Now they get to be happy for him (and K Rool) are finally here (drinking the tears of Samus and the blood of her parents)

 

[pupNapoleon]

Everyone's going to want different things.

You cannot please everyone 100%, that's a pipe dream.


Regardless, if this IS the final roster, being upset at it is kinda....eh?

Of course everyone cannot be pleased.
My point is that you use this list like those are the characters that are "supposed" to get in, and I guarantee, you would not have said those characters in March.
They arent the most wanted characters, just the characters who have gotten the most spotlight lately.

 

[Opossum]

No... no its not what people want.
There is a difference between Ridley and K Rool, and the other characters on the list.
We as a Smash fanbase online, are not the entire Smash community.
The longer we speculate about an announced game, the more the same characters echo back around because it is what we see likely.
This isnt perfectly representing what everyone who buys this game actually wants; at best it is representative of what those who spend their times speculating want, and even then, I find it foolish to think the names one reads and then perpetuates are the end all to the lists.

Most people just dont have the ability to get to their own thoughts once they read an idea over an over again. Let's get some psychological stats on this point.

Regardless, when the game comes out and those 'expected' characters are not the final list, we can pick this conversation back up.

What characters missing do you think would be bigger crowd pleasers?

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

What characters missing do you think would be bigger crowd pleasers?

Personally, I'd say Rayman, but he's a pipedream

 

[Shroob]

Of course everyone cannot be pleased.
My point is that you use this list like those are the characters that are "supposed" to get in, and I guarantee, you would not have said those characters in March.
They arent the most wanted characters, just the characters who have gotten the most spotlight lately.

A lot of it is due to news coming to light as the reveals started painting a picture.


Ken and Shadow before 8.8? No way in hell.

Ken and Shadow after 8.8? Richter's in? You better believe Ken's getting in.



Geno before Ridley and K.Rool? Nah, not happening.

Geno after Ridley and K.Rool? Uh, yes please.



And a new Pokemon has always been a thing in Smash, the only thing the 'leaks' helped on that is giving us a name as to which one.

 

[DarkShadow20]

Well who is it that the "entire Smash community" wants that isn't here and has wide support?

Well if he thinks Geno, Skull Kid, and Banjo would be boring, then he must want some pretty niche characters.

 

[pupNapoleon]

Well who is it that the "entire Smash community" wants that isn't here and has wide support?

My easy go to for this is Pokemon. As the highest grossing media franchise of all time, it is also one that gets really poor representation in the Smash community. In large part this is because it is the most unpredictable series as far as Smash representation goes, the reality is that there is no "who the entire Smash community wants."
I just encourage people not to get stuck in expectation. Because you are going to be wrong once you go down that road, and it makes what we do actually get all the less interesting when you are closed off to the possibility.

 

[Will]

What characters missing do you think would be bigger crowd pleasers?

Going for the "that's so arigarmy" route

 

[Dukeofdeath5]

Going for the "that's so arigarmy" route

What, Steve? That's a boring pick, everyone knows he's a lock

 

[Chrono.]

Apparently direct images and famitsu scans are for sale on the dark web. Extremely high priced. Rumors are going around that someone has purchased it and has divulged info to ppl in the community. Not sure if this means ppl like verge loz rogersbase etc.

Never thought "Nintendo Direct contraband on the dark web" would be a real thing I had think about today.

This fandom is in shambles.

 

[Rocket Raccoon]

Going for the "that's so arigarmy" route

We don't got the dedotated WAM for that.

 

[Danpal65]

My easy go to for this is Pokemon. As the highest grossing media franchise of all time, it is also one that gets really poor representation in the Smash community. In large part this is because it is the most unpredictable series as far as Smash representation goes, the reality is that there is no "who the entire Smash community wants."
I just encourage people not to get stuck in expectation. Because you are going to be wrong once you go down that road, and it makes what we do actually get all the less interesting when you are closed off to the possibility.

You really didn't answer my question.

 

[DarkShadow20]

Apparently direct images and famitsu scans are for sale on the dark web. Extremely high priced. Rumors are going around that someone has purchased it and has divulged info to ppl in the community. Not sure if this means ppl like verge loz rogersbase etc.

Where did you hear this?

 

[Venus of the Desert Bloom]

What is missing from the Smash website?

I love the website for all the goodies it has. Character gameplay highlight videos was something I always wanted to see. I definitely would like to see a palette swap slider for the main profile artwork that allows you to see which one as a high render. Many sites have that.

A biography of each character accorisng to thier respective franchise would also be beneficial for those interested in lore and legacy.

 

[Deleted member]

I've posted it in the social threads, but I'll post it in here too, I suppose. So I've gotten done with the Alrest tour with Elma in Xenoblade 2, and right at the end of it, there was this piece of dialogue that has me QUITE SUSPICIOUS, especially when you have Rex, Shulk, Elma and KOS-MOS being the only chaacters in the cutscene.

"But I feel like there must be some purpose, some meaning to this meeting. I don't know why, but it rings true."

I'M JUST SAYING. IT MIGHT BE A HINT.

also RIP Scottposting I suppose

 

[Chrono.]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the Direct character was probably gonna be someone who has/had a following, but a silent one or one that people didn't think about as much.

A darkhorse, essentially.

 

[DarkFalcon]

I've posted it in the social threads, but I'll post it in here too, I suppose. So I've gotten done with the Alrest tour with Elma in Xenoblade 2, and right at the end of it, there was this piece of dialogue that has me QUITE SUSPICIOUS, especially when you have Rex, Shulk, Elma and KOS-MOS being the only chaacters in the cutscene.

"But I feel like there must be some purpose, some meaning to this meeting. I don't know why, but it rings true."

I'M JUST SAYING. IT MIGHT BE A HINT.

also RIP Scottposting I suppose

So you're saying Rex, Elma and KOS-MOS confirmed for Smash?

 

[pupNapoleon]

What characters missing do you think would be bigger crowd pleasers?

Personally? I think the best list to go off of is what media franchises have done scored the best ever.
Forget gaming on itself, lets talk about the franchises that made an impact as far as media as a whole (and are still gaming originated).
This means games like Minecraft, Angry Birds, Resident Evil, Mortal Kombat, Dragon Quest, Kingdom Hearts (as Disney overall), Tomb Raider... theres only two dozen or so gaming franchises that have raised over 3 billion in franchise profits. Numerically, these are the biggest crowd pleasers.

On the flip side, yet not... King K Rool and Ridley were highly wanted by Smash scenes. Yes. And the next character most wanted after that is quite frankly immensely less comparable. Just because those two made it in does not mean we can just take the threads with high characters and say they made it in. Months ago, Decidueye was the Pokemon frontrunner. Then, two leakers said it was Incineroar, and Decidueye is as good as blacklisted. If that doesnt tell you the power of the speculation scene reverberating its own ideas, nothing will.

 

[Danpal65]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the Direct character was probably gonna be someone who has/had a following, but a silent one or one that people didn't think about as much.

A darkhorse, essentially.

coughcoughElmacoughcough