IM ****ING BORED
So I am going to personally analyze the likeliness of characters usually talked about. I'm about to ramble off a bunch of stuff people probably already know!
Ken&Isabelle: Disregarding their individual merits I'm one of those who actually believe Vergeben so I see them as more likely than the rest. Despite that, Ken would be an extremely easy echo to pull off and one which I think would generate a decent amount of hype/buzz, he would be however another echo pick that seems to ignore ballot results, and is not based on fan request (a Richter if you will). On the flip side Isabelle is a character with a lot of fan request, good ballot results, is a first party rep AND is an easy echo to do so I'd be surprised if she didn't show up, even if she hadn't been leaked.
Geno: One of the imaginary big three, everyone and their mother seems to think he's a lock. I certainly think he's highly likely but not just because of his speculation legacy. He did well on the ballet, seemed to get special treatment with his skin in Sm4sh, and Sakurai himself has expressed via interview his desire to put Geno in. This doesn't give him a lock though and the Agnes incident proved that. There are a lot of other Square Enix characters who would make sense (some would even say more sense than Geno) to be added. And no I don't mean Sora because apparently he's at least partially owned by Disney. Octo Path getting a rep to forward a new Square IP or Chrono Trigger to rep a Square title with a bit more legacy OR a Dragon Quest rep for the Japan audience would all likely be what speculators would be talking about if it weren't for this wooden doll from an niece nintendo title. But he isn't just blocking out Square reps, other Mario reps are also taking a back seat to Geno, speaking of which:
Paper Mario: I've said it before but if PM could be an echo he would have been a lock without a doubt. He's from a unique series which lacks no popularity and I'm sure Sakurai could do wonders with a 2D papercentric moveset. He, however, really cant be an echo, and thus it puts him in competition with Geno. Personally, I think PM makes more sense as the next Mario rep, it's not like he was lacked ballot support, but Geno just edges him out with the feverish support from the hardcore Smash fans.
Skull Kid: Another assumed lock though but one whose supporters have had their confidence shaken recently. Yes he doesn't show up in the moon AT. Yes we haven't seen YL's final smash (and for those saying YL isn't related to Skull Kid due to him being Ocarina of Time YL, OOT YL and Majora's Mask YL are the same character). Yes he had a mii skin. Yes he was big on the ballot. and yes, the chairs are clearly a clever hint by Sakurai for his inclusion./s But all this makes him just as likely to be a Boss as a character. He may be small but if I can easily imagine a boss fight in which Skull Kid constantly teleports around and screws with the stage before turning into Majora, then I'm sure Sakurai could think of something too. I'm not saying I don't want the character in, but my confidence in his inclusion is weaker since the boss idea krept into my head. I definitely think he's in the game to some capacity, but I'm readying myself for the other shoe to drop
Isaac: A missing AT with years of support and good ballot results. How much better odds can you have. Wait, where have a heard that one before.? In all seriousness I think what the fate of the likes of Ashly and Krystal has shown is AT status and being popular on the ballot simply isn't enough to be guaranteed a spot. Was he considered? Of course, but only Sakurai knows the true ballot results and only he can decide what's worth bringing in. I wouldn't be surprised if he was in, I also wouldn't be surprised if he was still an AT.
Bandanna Dee: I actually see his situation as even grimmer than Isaac. He's never even been mentioned/referenced in Smash (unless I'm forgetting his inclusion as a trophy.) And as others have stated, Sakurai seems to avoid Kirby elements he himself didn't create. The most he has going for him is being popular on polls/ballots (and again, we've already seen that isn't necessarily enough), and being missing from a Final Smash. I'm not holding my breathe, but I'd be happy for his supporters if he made it.
Incineroar: Like I said I believe Verg, but Verg never said Incineroar is in, he simply believed him likely. If the pokemon Verg said weren't in really aren't in, Incineroar really is the most likely gen 7 after them.
Gardevoir: Hey she's been a popular pick for years, but I'm not exactly sure if she had strong ballot showing. It'd be a major surprise but I don't put it past Sakurai. (just as long as she remains echoless...)
Rayman: He'd be great, but I personally don't think that Brawlhalla spot is doing him any favors. As far as I know he's been a popular ballot pick AND he did have that trophy meaning Sakurai has to be aware of his popularity, but if AT's have a hard time moving up the latter I imagine trophies must not have it much better.
Dante: A leak is a leak is a possibly fake leak. If it weren't for the leak, no way in hell. But, someone who has clearly leaked stuff about DMCV has claimed he's in. That's at least worth keeping an eye on, even if he's been denied by the producer.
Banjo: There's technically nothing stopping him from getting in but he suffers from Bandanna Dee syndrome, and at least Bandanna Dee is first party. If the Ultimate roster selection is as cut throat as I imagine it is, Banjo would certainly be considered, but I can't help but feel Sakurai would skip the headaches that apparently come with third parties